Week 12 Waiver Wire

Week 12 Waiver Wire

QUARTERBACK

Taysom Hill - New Orleans Saints

Ownership: 43%

FAAB: $3-5

Waiver Priority: No

Not only is Drew Brees doing his best Marilyn Manson impression in New Orleans, but Taysom Hill is also doing his best Lamar Jackson impression, except he wins games. Sure, throwing the ball, he isn’t necessarily great, but who cares about that aspect for fantasy. Sean Payton obviously loves this guy to no end, so Jameis is no threat to take the job as long as Brees is out, and considering Hill can add value on the ground, along with his affinity to throw it 70 yards downfield, there’s legit QB1 value here. I’m sure if you play in any sort of league that gave Taysom TE eligibility, he’s owned, but the good news is that he will be exclusively a QB this week, meaning even if he was added, he may be cut due to him not being the most trusted QB option. This is a prime opportunity to pounce, because not only did he flash fantasy relevance, but his schedule also lends itself to turning Hill into a weekly starter. The Saints get the Broncos this week, who, before shutting down Tua, looked awful. Even if TH doesn’t throw the ball 30 times, the floor he brings with his legs, as we saw last week, adding 17.1 fantasy points by way of that aspect of the game, more than makes up for it. After the Broncos, the Saints march into ATL, PHI, KC, MIN, and CAR. None of these defenses are daunting, so Hill should look to provide a low-end QB1 floor, paired with a very high ceiling, so long as Brees is out.


Teddy Bridgewater - Carolina Panthers

Ownership: 39%

FAAB: $0-1

Waiver Priority: No

Teddy Bridgewater was not expected to play, then was expected to play, then wasn’t expected to play all in a matter of 17 seconds on Sunday. P.J. Walker stepped in and looked decent, but if the Lions did anything on offense, his performance would have been viewed in a completely different light. Walker threw two horrible interceptions in the red zone on Sunday, but since it was an absolute bloodbath, it flew under the radar. I think if TB is healthy and ready to roll for Week 12, there will be no QB battle to be had in Carolina, as Bridgewater has proven this year that he’s more than competent enough to lead this offense whereas P.J. Walker wasn’t asked to do much against a lowly Lions’ defense. If Teddy suits up, he gets a date with the Minnesota Vikings, who just let a dead Cowboys team, led by Andy Dalton, total three passing scores. The two weeks prior, the Vikings actually didn’t allow many points to the QB position, but they also played a trio of Nick Foles, Matthew Stafford, and Chase Daniel. Prior to that, they gave up 10 scores in a three week span to ARod, Matty Ice, and Mr. Unlimited. Sure, he is nowhere near their caliber, but with Carolina’s rushing attack looking pretty garbage as of late and Dalvin Cook likely putting up 21 points by himself, the Panthers are going to have to sling it to keep up. They need a W heading into their bye, so I don’t see a way they just roll over and accept defeat, meaning Teddy Two Gloves, as well as this whole receiving core, looks to be in for a big game in this spot.


Derek Carr - Las Vegas Raiders

Ownership: 36%

FAAB: $3

Waiver Priority: No

He’s on this list every. single. week. I don’t know why he gets zero respect, but here we are. DC is currently on pace for 30 tugs and just shy of 3,900 passing yards, and seeing as who his upcoming opponents are, I wouldn’t be surprised one bit if he exceeds these numbers. This week, he gets to tear apart ATL...that should be fun. After that, LV gets to turn the Jets inside out, another spot where he’s a must-start option. Week 14 isn’t ideal, facing an Indy team that made even Aarod Rodgers look mostly pedestrian, but to finish the year, gets LAC and Miami byke to byke. The Chargers stink as well all know, and for as good as Miami is, I don’t necessarily view them as a team you can’t pass on. JHerbo just put up three tugs on them and Drew Lock didn’t look completely awful, which is usually his default. Yeah, I guess I can see if you don’t want to rely on Carr down the stretch because of the IND and MIA matchups, but there’s no denying that for a one or two week rental, he’s as good as it’s gonna get off waivers. He’s playing well in real life, and I expect that to continue translating into fantasy production. Just looking at what he’s done this year, he’s only disappointed twice since week one: once coming in a game against Cleveland where there were 50 mph winds, and the second one coming against the Broncos, where Vegas rushed for FOUR rushing tuddies. Other than that, DC has totaled multiple tugs in every game, and he should improve that number by two after the two week slate facing the Chargers of the NFC and the Rutgers of the NFL.

 

RUNNING BACK

Phillip Lindsay - Denver Broncos

Ownership: 54%

FAAB: $10

Waiver Priority: No

There isn’t much in terms of RB pickups this week. Carlos Hyde looked great, but Chris Carson is expected to return, and aside from that, no low-owned guys really stood out. Phillip Lindsay barely made the cut, coming in at 54% owned, so I figured I would ass him. He could easily be placed in the “handcuff” part of this article, but unlike the following seven names below, he has some sort of standalone value on a weekly basis. Obviously he benefit heavily from gamescript this week, but with how good he’s looked this year, paired with how terrible Lock has been, I would expect Denver to continue to rely heavily on the 1-2 punch they have in Melvin Gordan and Carrot Top. Since returning in week six, PL is actually averaging just north of 60 rushing yards per game on incredible efficiency, but the downfall, as it always has been, is his receiving game and goal line usage. MGIII is well ahead of him in the pecking order when it comes to both of those aspects of the game, but if there’s one thing I know about Melv, it’s that he’ll eventually blow his opportunity and lose his job to a UDFA. Even last week in a two tug outing, he fumbled on the one yard line, giving the ball back to a rallying (or trying to rally) Dolphins team. I’m not saying to drop a bag on Phil expecting him to lead this backfield next week, but as long as he’s seeing 12-15 totes a week, he should provide some upside FLEX value going forward, especially considering the teams he gets to run against. Next week will be a tough one against an elite Saints’ front, but after that, plays KC, CAR, BUF, LAC, and LV, all of which are soft stopping the ground game. Again, he’s not necessarily a league-winner due to his one-dimensional skillset, but his upside and realistic path to touches outweighs most other options available on the wire.


Gus Edwards - Baltimore Ravens

Ownership: 28%

FAAB: $10

Waiver Priority: No

News just broke that both J.K. Dobbins and Mark Ingram tested positive for COVID and are now out this week against the Steelers. Because of this, there’s good news and bad news for Gus Edwards. The good news: he’s the one and only trusted option in this Baltimore backfield. The bad news: he’s facing the Steelers. To be fair, the last time they played, Gus went for 16/87/1, and I’d expect a very similar role this week, but maybe even more volume. He’s going to be the short yardage option, both on the goal line and in 3rd and 4th downs when Baltimore needs just a few feet to gain, and between the 20s should see somewhere near that 20-tote mark given Baltimore is going to need to try and slow this game down to be able to keep up with Pitt. It’s not the best spot by any means for Edwards, but seeing as it’s a short week, coming off a game where he only saw three carries, he could have fresh legs. Kind of a casual argument, but who knows, it could play a big factor into how much usage he’s going to see on Thanksgiving. As far as his longevity goes, it’s all up to Dobbins and Ingram’s health, but I’d assume both will be byke in week 13 unless something goes wrong. Because of this, I’m not paying up big FAAB for a potential one week play in a terrible matchup, but that’s just me.


Waiver Wire Handcuff Rankings ($5-10 for any/all of them)

  1. Latavius Murray (59%)
  2. Tony Pollard (19%)
  3. Devontae Booker (10%)
  4. Alexander Mattison (33%)
  5. Boston Scott (29%)
  6. Benny Snell (5%)
  7. Brian Hill (7%)

 

WIDE RECEIVERS

Corey Davis - Tennessee Titans

Ownership: 51%

FAAB: $15-20

Waiver Priority: No

The former 5th overall pick is now averaging a (6.9) 4.9/68.6/0.4 receiving line per game, and that includes a donut against Chicago in week nine. To put that into perspective, that’s a 16 game pace of 110 targets for 78/1,098/6. Nobody wants to respect this guy, but week after week, he not only continues to produce, but he also continues to out target A.J. Brown. Aside from the 0 catch game, CD has logged 67 receiving yards or a tug in every single outing thus far and has topped 11 half-PPR fantasy points in 5 of 8 games. The tough stretch of opponents is almost over, as he has played Chicago, Indy, and Baltimore all in a row (and now plays Indy again in week 12), and once the stretch comes to an end, gets to end the year with Cleveland, jacksonville, Detroit, Green Bay, and Houston. He’s currently the WR24 on a PPG basis among receivers who have played as many games as him (8), and despite legitimately being a WR2, still sits on waivers because of the stigma he carries of being a bust. Don’t hold onto that hate, free yourself, grab Corey Davis, and win your league. It really is that easy.


Curtis Samuel - Carolina Panthers

Ownership: 50%

FAAB: $10-15

Waiver Priority: No

Every week there’s a new alpha in Carolina, but the thing is, the non-alphas still get a shit ton of targets. In a game that was never really close, D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel, and Robby Anderson totaled 30 looks, with Robby coming in last with 9 (!!!). CS saw 10 and turned that into 8-70-1, along with handling one carry for four yards, showing once again that he’s an integral part of this offense. Since returning from his one game absence, which occurred in week six, Samuel is seeing seven targets and 2.2 rushing attempts per game, turning those opportunities into an average receiving and rushing line of 6/52.4/0.6 and 2.2/9/8/0.4, respectively. He’s the WR5 (overall) over that stretch of games, and although you may think it’s inflated by a few outliers, it’s in fact, being dragged down by his week 10 dud where he dropped just 2.7 points. Other than that, he’s totaled 14.3, 19.4, 22.3, and 17.4 fantasy points. Now, he gets to face an Atlanta Falcons team that has zero answers for any offense? Yeah, he’s going to continue cooking. Maybe Samuel will take a slight step back if/when CMC gets on the field, but then again, he’s been such a big part of this offense, consistently producing over the last month or so, so I’m not sure he gets completely phased out. Treat him as a weekly WR3 option with legitimate WR1 upside on a weekly basis due to his versatility and high-value usage on a consistent basis.


Sterling Shepard - New York Giants

Ownership: 45%

FAAB: $5-10

Waiver Priority: No

I sometimes don’t include players that I wrote about multiple weeks in a row because I feel like it’s a waste of both our times, but one guy I’ll never not write about when given the chance is Sterling Shepard. He’s the #1 on an offense that consistently plays from behind unless they’re facing Washington, which is all I really have to say. He’s never going to catch a 75 yard TD and put up a 30 point week, but he’s as consistent and reliable a FLEX option as they come. From here on out, the G-Men are tasked with facing the Bengals, Seahawks, Cardinals, Browns, Ravens, and Cowboys. Beautiful. Other than Cincy, the Giants should be either in a deficit or a pseudo-shootout in all of these spots, meaning a whole bunch of looks for SS. Since returning from the I.R., he has seen at least six targets in every game, averaging 8 over that four week span, and although he hasn’t turned that into any sort of elite production, he’s coming down with everything (81.3% catch rate) and continues to be peppered by Daniel Jones. Shepard is basically the poor man’s Jamison Crowder at this point, which isn’t a bad thing by any means, and seeing as how he is likely to keep up this pace - seeing nearly double digit looks a week - given his upcoming schedule, I’d feel very confident using him as a waiver wire pickup turned FLEX option RoS.


Michael Pittman Jr. - Indianapolis Colts

Ownership: 44%

FAAB: $10

Waiver Priority: No

Basically every rookie wideout has done something incredible this year, except for the one taken first of the bunch, but now’s not the time to bash Mr. Ruggs. Instead, let’s look at what Michael Pittman Jr. has done as of late. Over his last three games, Pittman has played at least 80% of the team’s offensive snaps, and along with this, has been targeted a total of 18 times. There’s still a bit of a concern here for me due to the QB he tries to catch passes from, but he’s shown to be able to pick up chunk yards after the catch, and credit to the Colts for scheming him open on these plays. If they continue to try and feed MPJ, he’s going to eat, but again, I’m just erring on the side of caution given the team’s affinity to run the ball and kill the clock. Even this past week in a game with a point total of 65 and saw Phil throw 3 TDs, the former Trojan was targeted just three times. Again, he’s certainly talented and has produced as a trusty WR2 since week nine, but the lack of overall passing volume worries me, as it’s basically all up to him to turn limited looks into highly efficient output to replicate his recent outing. Despite these concerns, he’s still well worth the pickup because he’s by far in a way the top receiving option on this team, and if they were to treat him as such, target wise, going forward, could easily match what he’s done as of late.


Allen Lazard - Green Bay Packers

Ownership: 42%

FAAB: $3-5

Waiver Priority: No

In his first game back off the I.R., Lazard saw just four targets in a game that went to OT. Not great, but he has two things going for him. One, he played 60% of the team’s snaps, which isn’t a ton, but was thought to be limited entering the week. In my opinion, playing over half the offensive snaps after missing nearly two months of action is a promising sign that he looks to be a big part of this offense going forward. And two, MVS may not be on the team next week. His fumble that secured the game for the Colts was an obvious blunder that shouldn’t overshadow his recent stretch of success, but with ARod behind center, a mistake as simple as a false start could put you in the doghouse. Even though it sounds dumb that this is my argumet for grabbing Lazard, it makes almost too much sense to me. AL showed good chemistry with Rodgers early on, and as he gets healthy into week 12, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he finds himself occupying that WR2 role in GB going forward. If, and when, that becomes the case, Lazard should be a trusted FLEX play RoS, one who you can pick up for pennies right now due to his lack of production in his first week back on the field.


Nelson Agholor - Las Vegas Raiders

Ownership: 20%

FAAB: $3

Waiver Priority: No

Nelson Agholor is a WR1 on an NFL team? Nelson Agholor is a WR1 on an NFL team. I have no clue how it’s gotten to this point, but it has, and I love it. In reality, being the WR1 in LV isn’t all that it seems, because aside from scoring TDs, there hasn’t been much going for Agholor. His targets are wildly inconsistent, seeing nine targets this past week, the first time he’s been thrown to more than four times since week seven, and logged just his second performance of over 70 yards this year. I don’t want to talk down on Agholor too much because his self-confidence can’t take much more heat, but to me, he just isn’t worth the headache. The chances of you putting him in your starting lineup with confidence are so slim, and the chances of him actually producing when you do so are Robby Anderson slim. Let someone else deal with the migraine of playing Agholor on a weekly basis.


Denzel Mims - New York Jets

Ownership: 5%

FAAB: $1

Waiver Priority: No

Speaking of headaches, I wanted to slam my head into a wall watching the Chargers try to lose to the Jets this Sunday. Lucky for you, my 37 brain cells remained intact, as LA was able to hold on against the zero win Jets squad. Talk about a low bar. The Jets had very few bright spots on Sunday, but one of them was Mims, who once again looked to be the alpha in this NYJ passing attack. In four games, he has totaled 26 targets and has played 90% of the team’s offensive snaps in each of his last three. It hasn’t translated to fantasy production at all, topping out at 71 yards and has yet to reach the end zone, but the usage is certainly there. This late into the year, I’d much rather stash a handcuff RB than an upside WR, especially one on the Jets’ offense, but if you have a very deep bench and/or all valuable handcuffs are rostered, then Mims is someone worth grabbing. Also, if you’re in a dynasty league with someone who is frustrated by the lack of production coming from DM thus far, go out and send a 2nd round pick for him. It can’t get much worse than it is this season, cycling through QBs on a weekly basis after entering the year with two bum hammies. When Trevor Lawrence is in town in 2021, Mims should stand to benefit heavily from the improved QB play and should turn in a Sophomore season bounce-byke, similar to Diontae Johnson.

 

TIGHT END

Jordan Akins - Houston Texans

Ownership: 2%

FAAB: $0

Waiver Priority: No

I was going to not even cover TE this week because the position is so garbage, but Akins put up some pretty solid numbers, so why not toss him on here. The upside here is that he’s on an offense that can’t run the ball to save their lives and plays with an elite QB, but the downside is that he’s on an offense that uses tight ends the same way New England and Detroit uses running backs. Week to week, you never know who’s going to get the targets, evident by Akins’ game logs to this point. His target totals, weekly, are 2-7-3-3-4-1-6. Yeah, ugly. So, in the end, I guess I was right; I’m not going to hype up any tight ends this week. Don’t pick up Akins, save your FAAB for a handcuff back or an upside wideout because even if you’re desperate at the TE position, the chances of you getting a donut out of the position are just as good with Akins in there as it is with an empty slot.

 

D/ST

Cleveland Browns vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Ownership: 59%

Spread: CLE (-6.5)

Total: 46.5

Home/Away: No (but c'mon)

 

New York Giants vs Cincinnati Bengals

Ownership: 15%

Spread: NYG (-4.5)

Total: 43

Home/Away: No (but C'MON)

 

Seattle Seahawks vs Philadelphia Eagles

Ownership: 27%

Spread: SEA (-5.5)

Total: 52

Home/Away: No (see above,,, plus Carson Wentz fuggin stinks)