by Noah Pires
October 31, 2018
You know the saying "If it ain't broke don't fix it"? Well, through the first 7 weeks of the year, I hadn't gone positive ONCE. I went 7-7 in week 7 and 8-8 in Week 1. Outside of that, my picks have been a complete and utter shitshow. Well, last week I switched it up, having my friend, who knows nothing about football outside of the Giants (which he is delusional about), make my picks. Unsurprisignly, he blew me out of the water, going 10-4. TEN and MUTHAFUGGIN FOUR. He didn't even know about the spreads, I just told him to pick between the two teams, and voila, he showed me up. Bringing it back to the first sentence of this blog, I'm not gonna change what worked. Once again, we're going with the masked man's picks. For the first time this season, I'm feeling good.
CURRENT RECORD: 56-65-0
OAKLAND RAIDERS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-2.5)
PICK: 49ERS (-2.5)
The Raiders flat out stink, and they certainly aren't getting much better. They are aging like milk, and even against a poor 49ers team, I'm not sure they'll keep up. Their defense is terrible, so a guy like Marquise Goodwin has the potential to take an 80 yard pass to the house at any moment. I'm never a fan of betting on C.J. Beathard, but facing off against Derek Carr, the Raiders might be the ones who get beat hard (get it).
CHICAGO BEARS (-8.5) @ BUFFALO BILLS
PICK: BILLS (+8.5)
This pick isn't all tat bad. The Bills will be at home, and the mafia will be in full effect. The Bears offense has been incredible as of late, but the Bills were able to slow Brady most of the game Monday Night. The game between Buffalo and New England was close for most of the night, so if they keep up their defensive performance, I'm confident they could keep it close. If Derek Anderson (or whoever the MF'n Bills toss out there) turns the ball over a ton, which is certainly reasonable against this defense, Chicago should have no problem handling them. This is a large spread, so I could see a reason for picking Buffalo, but I'm not sure I'd recommend it.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-8.5) @ CLEVELAND BROWNS
PICK: CHIEFS (-8.5)
The Browns are the Browns, and the Chiefs are on a roll. Hue Jackson is gone, Todd Haley is gone, and Greg Williams is the coach. Their offense may be in shambles, losing two "elite" offensive minds and moving to an interim coach who only cares about defensive lineman and tearing opponents' ACLs. The Chiefs should pummel the Browns going through this coaching change. 8.5 isn't a big enough spread.
NEW YORK JETS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS (-2.5)
The over/under on interceptions thrown this game might be 7.5. This should be a defensive battle, as neither team has much left on the offensive side of the ball. The Jets have the better QB in this matchup (in my opinion) and a marginally better defense. This game is going to be a mess. Since it's a divisional matchup, it should be close, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Jets pull this one out.
DETROIT LIONS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-4.5)
PICK: VIKINGS (-4.5)
Kirk Cousins and the Vikings didn't look great against the Saints last week, but they should be able to bounce back in this spot. The Seahawks blew the Lions out last week, and I'd venture to say the Vikings have a better offense than them. This game should be a shootout, but I'm more confident in Minnesota at home outscoring the Lions, who just lost their most trusted receiver Golden Tate. This is a fair spread for a divisional game, and I think the Vikings could win by a touchdown.
ATLANTA FALCONS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS (-1.5)
PICK: FALCONS (+1.5)
Somehow, the Skins keep winning. Their offense leaves a lot to be desired headed by Alex Smith, but Adrian Peterson looks to be playing like his 27 year old self. Last week, the beat the Giants by 7, who, just a week before, the Falcons edged out 23-20. With this being said, I'm not sure how much I trust Alex Smith. Coming off the bye, the Falcons should look better offensively than weeks past, and even with their putrid defense, I don't think the Redskins will put up enough points to keep up. As underdogs, I like Atlanta here.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS (-6.5)
PICK: PANTHERS (-6.5)
Ryan Fitzpatrick has already had his stretch of good games this year, so I doubt he does anything productive this Sunday. As for the Panthers, they're rolling and Cam Newton has been incredible. Against this Tampa defense, they should have no problem dropping a 30 burger on them. Can Fitzy keep up? Who knows, he either plays like a first ballot hall of famer or like Jameis Winston, so if he performs like the latter, I LOVE Carolina -6.5. Even if he does return to form, I'm not sure they'll keep up with the red hot Panthers, who are playing at home.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS (-2.5)
PICK: STEELERS (+2.5)
I do not like this pick one bit, but as we all know, I'm a fucking idiot. My rationale? Big Ben is 3-7 in his career on the road in Baltimore, and in the three games he won, they did so by 4, 3, and 17 points. This game is going to be close, and with the Ravens having an elite defense and an offense that can move the ball, certainly against the Pittsburgh defense, they have a real chance of winning. I would have taken the Ravens here 9 times out of 10, but then again, a week from now, we'll be looking at the scoreboard and see the Steelers won 48-3. Don't listen to me, listen to the picks.
HOUSTON TEXANS @ DENVER BRONCOS (-2.5)
PICK: TEXANS (+2.5)
This line in unreal. The Texans are on a 5 game tear, while the Broncos, in the last month and a half, have only beaten the Cardinals. Their defense is beginning to improve, but now, with the Texans offense, headed by Deshaun Watson, heading into town, I'm not sure how much they can do to limit them. Demaryius Thomas is in line for a little revenge game in his first game in a Texans uniform, which will have everybody buzzing. I don't expect him to do anything on a new team immediately, but he's better than whoever else was going to get run on the outside. My only concern is Deshaun's breathing concerns in the thin air, but he sounds fine, and certainly looked it last week. He's had an extended week to rest up, and if he's anywhere near 100%, this could be a blowout.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-1.5)
PICK: CHARGERS (+1.5)
Every other pick was not made by me, but this one was. The masked man wanted the Seahawks at home, but I couldn't let that happen. Is this because I'm a Chargers fan and I'm biased? Yes. 100%. The only game I've bet against them in was week one against the Chiefs, and I was right. Since then, I've been taking them, and it hasn't worked out well. What's different here, though, is that they're underdogs to a team who I don't think can hold a candle to them. Offensively, the Chargers are superior, but on the other side of the ball, I'll hand it to Seattle, especially at home. Coming off a bye, though, if Melvin Gordon is healthy, I'm not sure the Hawks will have any answers for them. When Gordon is on the field, it allows them to mix in Austin Ekeler to throw the defense off, and then throw a 75 yard bomb to one of the Williams brothers. If you don't take my pick here, I don't blame you, as it's based mostly on my fandom, but I truly believe the Chargers are the better team.
LOS ANGELES RAMS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-1.5)
PICK: RAMS (+1.5)
This may be the game of the year. The Saints defense has definitely improved from their performances earlier in the season and their offense is keeping their opponents off the field. Since Ingram's return, they've been running a ton, draining the clock. Will this work against the Rams? I'm not too sure. Last week, they held the Vikings to 20 points, but I wouldn't really compare Minnesota's offense to the Rams'. The Saints are an elite run defense, but at this point, I can't bet against Todd Gurley. As we all know, the Rams are undefeated, and I think the trend will continue thins week, although the game should be close. As underdogs, I'm 100% betting on Sean McVay here.
GREEN BAY PACKERS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-5.5)
PICK: PATRIOTS (-5.5)
The Pats struggled Monday night against the Bills' defense, but that shouldn't be the case against the Packers. Green Bay just lost Haha Clinton-Dix, and they're putting all their confidence in two rookie corners on the outside. With Josh Gordon, James White, Julian Edelman, Gronk, and even Chris Hogan, I'm not sure the Packers will have any answers defensively. As for Green Bay, they should be able to put up points against a middling defense, who, outside of last week, have been allowing nearly 26 points a game (including the 7 points Miami put up against them). In the end, I'll bet on Brady over ARod, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Pats are up 10 with 1:24 left, and then Rodgers drives up the field, scores a TD as time expires, and shits on all of us. This is definitely going to happen. Whatever. I'm taking the Pats.
TENNESSEE TITANS @ DALLAS COWBOYS (-6.5)
PICK: COWBOYS (-6.5)
Why can't the Rams/Saints game switch time slots with this game? Who in their right mind wants to see this? Neither team can do anything offensively and their defenses are solid. This game may end 10-3. Sure, the Cowboys acquired Amari Cooper, but how much will that help when his quarterback can't even throw it to him? In the end, I think the Cowboys will dominate time of possession and win by a score. Zeke, even though he's facing a strong run defense, should be able to eat, and if he is successful on the ground, the Cowboys will win this game. Mariota won't be able to do anything against the Cowboys defense, so if the Cowboys score more than 13 points, this is an easy pick. The reason for my low confidence, though, is I'm not sure the Cowboys can put up a score and two field goals. If I'm being honest, the only reason I'm going to watch this game is for Jason Witten.
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