Week 9 Fantasy Football Trade Targets

by Nick Ercolano October 30, 2019 1 Comment

Week 9 Fantasy Football Trade Targets

Josh Jacobs - RB, Oakland Raiders

[Buy-Low]

  • Volume
    • On pace for > 300 touches, averaging > 19 touches per game
  • RZ usage
    • 4% of team’s red zone rushes (avg 4 per game), 75% of GL carries (6 in 7 games)
  • Good running team
    • 4th in ADJ Line yards
    • 7th highest run rate (45%); volume will remain
  • Pass Game uptick
    • 3 targets over first 3 weeks
    • Averaging 2.5 targets/game last 4 weeks
  • Current Production
    • 283/1,417/9 pace despite playing CHI, MIN, HOU, DEN
  • He’s just really damn good
    • 2nd in PFF elusive rating
      • 35 forced missed tackles on rush attempts (2nd most, most per game)
      • 12th breakaway run-rate (15+ yards)
      • 6th most yards created
    • Upcoming schedule = elite
      • Games against tough defenses likely lowscoring games, so volume will be there
        • Titans allowed 2nd most RB Recs thus far, JJ could draw value there as he’s being more involved
      • WOULD OVERPAY FOR HIM

 

Tyler Boyd - WR, Cincinnati Bengals

[Buy-Low]

  • Volume
    • 3rd most targets (83)
    • 6th most receptions (51, 5th among wrs)
  • Lack of TDs
    • Only player w/ >65 targets to have <2 TDs
    • Only 2 WRs w/ >60 targets to have 1 or fewer TDs
      • OBJ (61 tgts, 1 TD)
      • Woods (60 targets, 0tds)
    • BIG CONCERN: RZ USAGE
      • Only 4 RZ tgts, Auden Tate has 13, Eifert has 7, Gio has 5
      • Only had 8 last year though and scored 7 TDs (5 did come in the RZ)
        • 67% pass pct in RZ, so team volume is there
      • WR23 among WRs that have played 6 or more games
        • Has produced despite not seeming like it
        • On pace for 102 Recs and 1,072 rec yards
          • Only 2 TDs
        • Could've had an additional 55 yards and TD on overthrow by dalton
        •  
        • Return of AJ Green
          • Many people assume Boyd will be terrible w/ Green back eating volume
            • ***boyd splits with AJ Green***
            •  
              • His #s did drop off bc driskel played at QB later in year, but his production w/ AJG was elite
            • Boyd played 74.6% of his snaps in slot w/ Green active last year
              • 65.7% this year
                • With Green back, Boyd in slot a little more w/ Tate and AJG on outside
              • Schedule
                • Has been tough so far relative to ROS schedule
                  • Other than pats and maybe steelers, he has a very easy schedule
                  • Baltimore: Fitz (5/104/0), Kirk (6/114/0), Jarvis (8/167/0), JuJu (7/75/1), Lockett (5/61/1)

                    Steelers: Edelman (6/83/0), Lockett (10/79/0)

                    Browns: kupp (11/101/2), snead (2/61/1), Edelman (8/78/2)

Robby Anderson - WR, New York Jets

[Buy-Low]

  • USAGE
    • Averaging 7.25 targets/game with darnold this year (21% market share with Darnold)
    • 38% of team’s air yards
    • 106 air yards/game with sam (would rank 6th behind Evans, Julio, Keenan, Golladay, DHop, Curt Samuel)
  • Splash Plays
    • Already has a 90+ yard TD, barely missed one Sunday (put in video)
    • Averaging 2 deep targets/game with Darnold
      • For perspective, Goll leads league in deep tgts (19) and averaged 2.7/game
    • Schedule
      • Can be a reliable WR3 play up until week 15
        • If he and darnold show chemistry, can be used down the stretch

 

Stefon Diggs - WR, Minnesota Vikings

[Sell-High]

  • Diggs is byke as our number one sell-high, coming off another big-time performance against the INCREDIBLE redskins secondary. Three straight games with over 140 receiving yards. Two straight games without Adam Thielen and the first game against Philly. This was easier to see coming than _____
  • I fully expect Thielen back for this week when they travel to KC to take on the Chiefs, who by the way have been dynamite against fantasy WRs this year.
  • In the 6 games with Thielen this year, Diggs has seen a 22% target share, which is down nearly 5% from last year. In the 6 games with Thielen, Diggs is on pace for 90.6 target ya'll... that's terrible. 
  • It speaks to the scheme of the offense, which will continue to be centered around Dalvin the gawd Cook.

 

Kenny Golladay - WR, Detroit Lions

[Over-Pay]

  • He's not a buy-low, he's someone I'm willing to over-pay for. I wish he had a bad game again this week, but bad players just don't usually do that.
  • I think going forward, Kenny G will be a top 6-8 fantasy WR for the 2H of the year.
  • Two major reasons - this offense moving the ball downfield & the struggles this defense is likely going to have moving forward.
  • Let's start with the defense, because no matter what they want to do on offense, their defense dictates what they can do. Their defense looked good to start the year, but has plummeted since. Over their last 5 games, they're allowing 30 points per game to their opponents.
  • They traded away their captain, safety Qandree Diggs. They lost the next man up at safety, Tracy Walker, who has been playing well this year to a knee injury.
  • Among 109 qualified CBs per Pro Football Focus, the Lions don't have a CB grading out in the top 45 for coverage. Their top CB, Darius Slay, very well might get moved. Their next two, Justin Coleman and Rashaan Melvin grade out 50th and 95th among 109 CBs. It's going to get ugly for this secondary. Their pass rush is 23rd in the NFL.
  • So, we've established that this defense is going to give up a lot of yards and point.
  • But Matt Stafford is having a monster year. Thanks in part to his willingness to let it fly. He's attempted 49 deep balls this year, he leads the NFL, that's 7/game, and he's only played in 7. The next closest guy (Rivers) is 6 behind him and almost all of these guys have played a full game more than Staff. 19.6% of his throws are deep passes, last year Josh Allen's 19.7% is the only one that would've beat him. But Stafford's on pace to throw 112 deep balls, no QB has ever hit that many deep ball attempts in a season.
  • Without Kerryon, they're going to have to continue to lean on Stafford and the passing game. Golladay has seen at least 8 targets in all but one game, and his 16.85 aDOT is 1st in the NFL among 80 qualified WRs.
  • They play Oakland next, still have Chicago twice on their schedule who really isn't a scary matchup anymore, last year Kenny G went 6-78-1 and 5-90 against them. Dallas at home, the Redskins, playoffs week 15 he gets TB at home. At Denver Week 16 is really tough, but at least he'll help you get there.
  • He's tied for 4th in the NFL with 20 RZ targets, and 3rd in EZ targets!



Nick Ercolano
Nick Ercolano

Author



1 Response

BVT
BVT

October 31, 2019

Good stuff. I like how you lay out your justification instead of just throwing out names. I sold Diggs and Hyde for Josh Jacobs and DJ Moore earlier in the week. Trying to sell Diggs in a other league, but no bites so far. The last 3 weeks have been amazing in making people forget about the beginning of the year for him. I’m definitely willing to bet that he doesn’t keep it up.

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