Josh Allen - QB, Buffalo Bills
[Sell-High]
- ONLY IF YOU’RE 7-0, 6-1, 5-2
- Upcoming schedule is impeccable, playoff schedule awful
- Has played Jets, Giants, Cincy, Miami
- Only >25 points ONCE
- >40 rushing yards ONCE
- Has finished top 12 ONCE
- 26th in adjusted deep accuracy (32.1%)
- 27th most rz attempts
- Buffalo 3rd least points allowed (15.2)
Keenan Allen - WR, Los Angeles Chargers
[Buy-Low]
- 4th most targets in the NFL (70; 10/game)
- Most RZ targtes (9)
- Most air yards (861); 36% MS team AY (10th highest %)
- 22nd most deep tgts (9); only 3 catchable
- Averaged just 7 targets/game over last 4
- 11 last week
- Could’ve had like 150 yards, overthrown/underthrown deep ball and a TD knocked out of his hands
- Melvin Gordon has been shit, Defense is awful, going to need to throw
- LT set to return soon, give phil more time
- Still clearcut #1 getting valuable targets on an offense bound to improve with Okung returning
- Plays CHI, GB, OAK, KC, DEN, JAX, MIN, OAK
- Chicago and Denver only tough defenses
- Minn and GB decent vs WRs, but chargers will need to throw
- Chicago and Denver only tough defenses
- 11 last week
D.K. Metcalf - WR, Seattle Seahawks
[Buy-Low]
- 22nd most air yards
- 26% of team’s air yards (Lockett at 25%)
- 10 deep targets (15th most), 5 being catchable (12th most)
- RW 3rd in adjusted deep completions % (2nd among qbs w/ >15 deep attempts)
- Most RZ targets in NFL (9)
- HASN’T CAUGHT ANY
- Has EIGHT targets from 10 yards or closer
- Saw 9 targets, 2 RZ
- No Dissly, Luke Willson not a threat, has shown to be a top RZ option
- 65 yards or a TD in 4/6
- Not trading for him to be a WR2, trade him for a flex options and get 3-4 spot starts out of him
- Week, 8,9,12 players on bye- Thielen, Diggs, Keenan Allen, Tyreek Hill, Larry Fitz, Julio, Boyd, Rams WRs, Michael Thomas, Amari Cooper
- Weeks 9 and 12 are funnel defenses towards the pass
David Johnson - RB, Arizona Cardinals
[Sell-High]
- Sell on name value
- Dealing w/ this back injury
- Ankle injury too
- He's been BAD as a runner
- Averaging just 6.0 fantasy points from rushing/game
- 24th graded RB per PFF
- 48th/50 in elusiveness (only Michel and Jon Hilliman are worse)
- and his evaded tackles/rush attempt is dead
- we're now going on two years of him being awful as a running back.
- is his offensive line partly to blame? sure, but that's not getting any better.
- The way I see it, Edmonds fantasy value is obviously tethered to Johnson's availability, he's not pushing for the starting job, at least not yet. But Edmonds has earned a bigger role in this offense. He's been the far better, more explosive and efficient back, at least as a runner and he's plenty capable on all three downs.
- DJ is dependent on his passing game usage, and we have Christian Kirk coming back this week, next week probably the latest, who was running 76% of his snaps from the slot before he got hurt, so that's going to hinder David Johnson's work in the passing game a bit, just an educated guess.
- Not to mention the upcoming schedule:
- Followed by a bye in Week 12, then LAR and PIT who aren't elite, but definitely not pushovers run defenses - PIT has yet to allow an RB to rush for more than 68 yards in a game this year, they always get better as the season progresses. @SEA in the championship week, they've been quietly very good against the run this year. DJ will not be efficient running the ball in these games, as per usual, and you might need to bank on a rushing TD, but we also have Kyler who steals carries inside the 10-yard line. It's just not good.
- It's a lot of red flags here.
Calvin Ridley - WR, Atlanta Falcons
[Buy-Low]
- Ridley's been inconsistent this year, similar to last year.
- His rookie season: 92 targets, 64 receptions, 821 yards, 10 touchdowns
- His 2019 pace: 100 targets, 66 receptions, 852 yards, 9.1 touchdowns
- The big thing here is that Mohamed Sanu gets moved.
- Sanu has been the snap leader among ATL WRs in every single game this year. He has tied Julio for the lead in two games, but was the outright leader in every other game.
- Ridley ranks 3rd in snaps and routes run among their 3 wideouts, now down to two.
- Matt Ryan has attempted 285 passes this year, on pace for 652 which would be a career-high. This defense isn't getting any better, this run game isn't either, so that outcome is very likely to happen.
- Ridley currently ranks 12th among NFL WRs in QB Rating when targeted (129.6), 7th in target separation, and 6th in deep targets.
- Obviously, Matt Ryan is a little big banged up with the ankle, it's not supposed to be serious but right now they're not playing for anything and they have their bye in week 9 after they play Seattle, so I wouldn't be surprised if they sit Ryan this week.
- Their next five games are all NFC South opponents. The Saints twice, the Panthers twice and the Bucs. Lattimore will likely shadow Julio and same with Bradberry. It should open Ridley up for some big games.
- So, I think you have like 3 buy low windows for Ridley right now. You can shoot for him now, wait for Ryan to possibly sit and have Ridley go for another bad game, wait for the buy week where an owner might not want to hold onto him.. dealer's choice.
