by Noah Pires
October 24, 2019
This is an absolutely ridiculous tear. I have no clue what's happening or why Vegas decided to bless me this year, but I'm thankful. I love the board this week, which could be very good or very bad, but with how things have been going, I may just go 14-0. Without further ado, let's make some guap.
Last Week: 8-6-0
Current Record: 61-45-0
SuperLock Record: 7-4-0
Washington Redskins @ Minnesota Vikings (-15.5)
Pick: Vikings (-15.5)
This is the revenge game of the century. Not only is Kirk Cousins going to show the Skins exactly why they didn’t bring him back to D.C., but the Vikings are going to feel a lot better about their decision after seeing what their defense does to the former Viking Case Keenum. To say the Redskins are banged up is a vast understatement, as their undead runningback Adrian Peterson couldn’t even escape the grasp of their medical staff, and on a short week, won’t bode well for this sad excuse of a franchise. The Vikings are going to beat the hell out of them, and with their offense firing on all cylinders lately, there should be no slowing down in this smash spot. Vikes by a trillion.
Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) @ Atlanta Falcons
Pick: Seahawks (-3.5)
The battle of the birds will be closer to a massacre than a duel. How this number is only 3.5 is astonishing. Matt Ryan’s ankle is hanging on by a thread, but even if it wasn’t, I don’t see how Seattle keeps this close. Sure, their defense isn’t as good as it used to be, but the Falcons still struggle to convert TDs in the red zone and with Atlanta’s defense looking like a welcome mat, the future MVP Russell Wilson should absolutely blow up. I feel bad making this my SuperLock, but I don’t feel bad about guaranteeing a win, so that’s exactly what I’m doing. Seattle is going to win by AT LEAST two touchdowns, mark it down.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Buffalo Bills (-1.5)
Pick: Bills (-1.5)
Philly is a mess. An absolute mess. Their receivers get talked about more on the news than during the actual game, Carson Wentz is playing more like Prince Harry than he looks like him, and opposing offenses are trouncing their defense. Sure, Josh Allen may not be the best, most accurate QB in the league, but when he’s up against a team who just cut one of their starting cornerbacks in hopes Vince Papale walks through that door, I’m more than confident that he can produce. Along with that, the Bills’ defense should have no issue snapping Wentz is half like a toothpick with their pass rush, and if he manages to make it out of the game alive, I’m sure he’ll be put through a table to finish him off. I think this one could get ugly quick. I’m not sure how I feel being this confident about my first three picks, but I guess we’ll find out next week if that’s a good thing or not.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Chicago Bears (-3.5)
Pick: Chargers (+3.5)
I honestly hate this team. Every Sunday I lose about three months off my life expectancy and I don’t think this week will be any different. A California team going into Solider Field to match up against one of the league’s best defenses while boasting a depleted offensive line and no semblance of a running game is the perfect storm to get shitpumped, which is why I’m taking the bolts. Everything says not to do so, and I have no logical reasons for making this pick aside from me fading my own logic, so take this with a grain of salt.
New York Giants @ Detroit Lions (-6.5)
Pick: Giants (+6.5)
If you know the story of Daniel in the Lions’ Den, you know who comes out victorious in this game. The Lions are dead after getting killed by the refs two weeks ago and buried by the Vikings this past Sunday, and this week Daniel Jones is delivering the eulogy. The is my Biblical Lock of the millennium. When the stars align like this, there is nothing else to explain. Giants may win outright.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Tennessee Titans (-2.5)
Pick: Buccaneers (+2.5)
For as big of a fraud as Jameis is, I’m not so sure he edges out Ryan Tannehill in that department. Sure, he looked pretty good last week, but did so against a team that had three NFL caliber players active on defense. Now, Tampa’s defense may be awful against the pass as well, but they are elite at stopping the run, and if they eliminate Derrick Henry, the Titans may be in trouble. As for Winston, it seems like when you expect him to play terribly, he goes crazy, and that is definitely true in this one. Coming off a bye, facing what looks to be a solid defense, he may just turn in a decent enough performance to be able to eat a W, but certainly should keep this within a field goal.
Denver Broncos @ Indianapolis Colts (-5.5)
Pick: Colts (-5.5)
The Broncos couldn’t even contain a Matt Moore led offense last week and their offense was dominated by the Chiefs. I tend to fade betting against teams that underperformed in primetime, but I just don’t think they have any redeeming qualities. They will be without Emmanuel Sanders, who was a pretty significant part of their passing attack, and against a pretty solid Colts defense, may struggle. Basically, what the Colts have is better than what the Chiefs were left with after Mahomes went down, and they gave Denver the absolute blues. At home, Indy should have no trouble winning big.
Cincinnati Bengals VS (London Game) Los Angeles Rams (-12.5)
Pick: Rams (-12.5)
I love this game. Sean McVay created Zac Taylor, and just like a stomach virus, he can destroy him. The U.S. won’t have jurisdiction over this murder as this game is being played in London, so the Rams should have no issue rubbing salt in the wound. Jalen Ramsey is going to be a familiar face in England since he played for Jacksonville and those Brits love a Shaguar, so the crowd may be backing LA. 12.5 is a big number for the Rams to cover as they haven’t looked great, but if there was ever a time for Jared Goff to blow up it would be against Cincinnati, and I’m not convinced the Bengals put up more than 14. Rams by a hundred thou.
Arizona Cardinals @ New Orleans Saints (-9.5)
Pick: Saints (-9.5)
Teddy two gloves is going to go out with a bang. Sure, the Cardinals have actually been winning games, but have done so against completely incompetent teams. For as much as I love Kyler Murray, I think New Orleans’ d-line is going to give him issues all game and could lead to very little output from the Cardinals. As for the Saints, they have proven they can keep up/outscore anybody they face, and now, going up against a bunch of middle schoolers, Teddy should have no issues with continuing to dominate. At home, give me the flat-out better squad going up against a coach that puts himself in a mental pretzel every time he’s inside the five yard line.
New York Jets @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5)
Pick: Jets (+4.5)
This is such an easy pick. We all saw Sam Darnold on Monday night look like he had seen a ghost, throwing the ball to phantom teammates dressed in navy and red all night, which is why I’m pushing all my chips to the middle of the table. Let’s not forget that the week before he looked like an actual QB, one that could complete more than one pass per drive, against a fairly competent Cowboys’ defense. The Jaguars may seem like a good defense on name value alone, but without Ramsey and their squad as a whole regressing since their elite level of play in 2017, they aren’t nearly as scary as you’d think (17th DVOA) and not in the same sentence as New England’s defense. On top of that, New York’s defense isn’t half bad, so even if they do lose this game, I’m not sure it’s by more than a field goal. I’m fading public perception and rolling with Sammy Joel Osment.
Carolina Panthers @ San Francisco 49ers (-5.5)
Pick: Panthers (+5.5)
The 49ers are a top three team in the league, and I’m not sure that they’re three or two. Last week was a bit of an anomaly since they were playing in CoCo Key, so I’m throwing that game out. Despite this, the Panthers certainly are no slouch of a squad and have had an entire week to prepare for San Fran. Their defense, although not as good as what the 9ers boast, is extremely solid, and I’d comfortable say their offense is better. They may not win this game, but there’s no way they lose by more than 5.5. I just don’t see that happening.
Cleveland Browns @ New England Patriots (-13.5)
Pick: Patriots (-13.5)
The Patriots defense going up against Baker Mayfield and this offensive line is going to be ugly. The Patriots’ offense hasn’t really done much lately, but that’s likely more due to them not having to worry about scoring than them being bad, so even if their defense somehow takes a step back, I’d be confident that their offense can hang a crooked number on Cleveland. The long week for the Browns likely made Freddie Kitchens outthink himself, and Freddie trying to figure out Bill Belichick is like having a cow with a blindfold try to solve a rubik’s cube. New England hasn’t let me down yet, and I’m not expecting them to start doing so this week.
Oakland Raiders @ Houston Texans (-6.5)
Pick: Raiders (+6.5)
I don’t think I’ve ever been on the right side of an Oakland game. I was all over them to start the year and they burned me, and these last few weeks when I faded them, they made me look foolish. I think I’m just going to bet on them when I know I shouldn’t, and that’s the exact case here. Their defense stinks so Watson should tear them up, and their offense is centered around Josh Jacobs and Houston’s biggest strength is stopping the run. Everything suggests a Houston blowout, which is why I’ll take Oakland.
Green Bay Packers (-4.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs
Pick: Chiefs (+4.5)
With Matt Moore at quarterback, you’d think it would be easy to side with the Packers. Wrong. The Chiefs’ defense is always better at home, and after a strong showing last week on Thursday night, they could give ARod some troubles. Coming off a six-touchdown game, that may seem like blasphemy, but he hadn’t topped two tugs all year. Maybe they won’t have a hard time scoring against a middle of the pack KC defense, but I’m not so sure that with a week of actual practice and extra time to prep for this game, Kansas City’s offense should look a little more cohesive than it did against the Broncos after Mahomes went down. In the end, though, I’m siding with Andy Reid and the boys because everything is telling me not to.
Miami Dolphins @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-14.5)
Pick: Dolphins (+14.5)
The Dolphins have shown a bit of life these past two weeks, and against the Bills, proved they are only half in the grave. Against a Steelers team coming off a bye in what seems like a lookahead spot, as they draw the Colts next week, I’m not too sure they drop this game by more than two tugs. On top of that, the QB that’ll likely start is nicknamed after a bad spiral, which isn’t great when you’re the one spinning the pill. The Steelers will still win outright, but they are going to take it easy on the Dolphins who are slowly going extinct.
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