Week 7 Trade Targets

by Nick Ercolano October 16, 2019

Week 7 Trade Targets

The top buy-low and sell-high trade targets for Week 7 of 2019 fantasy football.

 

 

Travis Kelce - TE, Kansas City Chiefs
(Buy-Low)

  • Disappointing, but still fine, other guys are having monster seasons (Hooper, Andrews, Waller) so we're not thinking he's too good anymore.
  • Still 3rd in fantasy points for TEs.
  • Leads all TEs in receiving yards with 497. Among WRs, that would be the 7th highest total in the NFL. He's on pace for 1325 yards, that is 11 fewer yards than he had last season y'all. When he broke the single-season receiving yards record... before Kittle also broke it lol. But still.
  • The TDs obviously aren't there, but when they do come, and they will, Kelce is going to PULL AWAY from the rest of the pack at the position.
  • Mahomes has thrown 14 touchdowns this year, only one has gone to Kelce. That's 7.1%. Last year, Kelce caught 10 of Mahomes' 50 touchdowns, 20%. These are going to meet in the middle eventually and Kelce will start putting up boom weeks.
  • This game against Houston was his worst game, 4-58, which means it's probably your best chance to buy-low on him. Other than that, he's had 70+ receiving yards in all 5 games, it's extremely difficult to find that kind of consistency at TE, and he caught 7 passes in 3-of-5 games.
  • It's Travis Kelce, I don't need to tell you how good he is. The TDs are coming, the explosion is coming, grow up and get him.

Tevin Coleman - RB, San Francisco 49ers

[Buy-Low]

  • Snap Share
    • Outsnapped breida 43 to 28 (55% snap share)
  • Rushing Volume
    • Outcarried breida 18:13
      • Also saw 3 targets
    • Red Zone usage
      • 4 carries inside the 5; 5 inside the 10
    • Team is very good
      • Rank 1st in RZ trips/game (4.4)
      • 21 RZ passes, 31 rushes (59.6% run rate in RZ)
      • 2nd in TOP (35:03)
        • Rank #1 over last 3 games (37:37)
      • #1 in adjusted line yards (5.40)
    • Schedule
    • doesn't face any elite defenses other than NO, and SF's run blocking efficiency should be able to counteract middle of the pack D's
    • jusczycyk, joe staley, mike mcglinchey will be back by Saints game

Devonta Freeman - RB, Atlanta Falcons

[Sell-High]

  • Snap Share
    • < 65% of snaps in 4/6 games
      • Played 90% one week when Ito got concussed right away (put up 100 points that game)
    • Inconsistent usage
      • Ito and Freeman both have 9 RZ carries
        • Ito has 3 GL rushes, Freeman has 1
      • Terribly inefficient
        • > 3 YPC in just two games (INDY and AZ)
          • Indy allows 4.71 YPC, AZ allows 4.4 YPC
        • Only saving grace is receiving game
          • Pace for (77) 67/541/8 receiving
          • Scored TWO RZ TDs Sunday (on 3 tgts)
            • 2nd TD was garbage time and busted coverage
            •  
          • Defense is awful, not going to be volume on ground, plus being in timeshare further limits volume
            • Going to have to rely on him being a focal point in passing game; unlikely with Julio, Ridley, Sanu, Hooper
          • Ridiculously tough schedule

DJ Chark - WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

[Buy-Low]

  • Still the unquestioned #1
    • 39% of team’s air yards (8th highest in NFL)
    • 625 air yards (8th most)
  • RZ Usage
    • Tied for #1 in RZ targets (only 3, but shows he’s not being left out)
  • Deep Looks
    • 3rd most deep targets (13); most deep receptions (8), deep yards (290), 2nd most deep tds (3)
  • QB Situation
    • Saw 2/8 throws from Foles (25%)
    • Seen 42/194 of Minshew’s throws (21.6%)
  • Schedule
    • Elite down the stretch

 

Stefon Diggs - WR, Minnesota Vikings
[Sell-High]

  • 7/167/3 vs PHI
  • PHI has a 100% funnel defense this year. Their run defense is absolutely elite. Their pass defense is literally anti-elite. They're elite in the sense that almost no one is as bad as them. Their CBs, given depth and health are probably the worst in the NFL right now. So, you have a team that's going to pivot away from the run, which is what they always do, and have to throw, so this makes complete sense.
  • We're all enamored by his talent, of course he's going to have these games, but more often than not, which has been the case this season, he's going to go:
    • 2-37 (WR67)
    • 1-49 (WR31)
    • 3-15 (WR82)
    • 3-44 (WR48)
  • He's finishing outside of the top 45 WRs in 3-of-6 games.
  • Don't forget this was a problem for him last year even when the team was much more pass-heavy. He finished with fewer than 50 receiving yards in 8-of-15 games (53%).
  • We really think everything is fixed because the Eagles let him do this? They've allowed the single most FPs to WRs in 2019.
  • His playoff schedule: Week 14 - DET (Slay), Week 15 - @LAC (Hayward), Week 16 - GB (Alexander), all guys he'll likely get shadowed by. 

 

Melvin Gordon - RB, Los Angeles Chargers

melvin gordon fantasy football



Nick Ercolano
Nick Ercolano

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