Week 7 Picks Against the Spread
I don't know what's happening. This may be the most prolific streak of all time, and that isn't hyperbole. Last year I couldn't surpass a .500 record two weeks in a row to save my life (or bank account), but now, that's all we're doing around here. The SuperLocks have been shit, I admit it, but you can only ask for so much. I'm actually pretty confident in a lot of my picks this week, which is much different from previous weeks, so let's see if that will flip the script on my record.
Last Week: 8-6-0
Current Record: 53-39-0
SuperLock Record: 5-4-0
Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) @ Denver Broncos
Pick: Chiefs (-3.5)
With the Chiefs playing like shit recently, it’s hard to bet on them. The Broncos’ only redeeming quality offensively is their run game, where they should dominate since KC can’t do anything to stop it, but their lack of a consistent passing attack makes me concerned that they won’t keep up. Sure, they could dominate time of possession and with Mahomes’ ankle acting up, may not be able to blow out Denver, but all it takes is two or three deep shots to Tyreek Hill to put this game out of reach. After two pretty pathetic showings, I think it’s the perfect bounceback spot, playing in primetime against a divisional opponent. What I’m more interested in, though, is seeing which #elite QB can throw the ball further in the thin air at Mile High. If that were the competition, I’d put my money on Iso Joe, but since it isn’t’, I’ll side with the Chiefs.
Los Angeles Rams (-2.5) @ Atlanta Falcons
Pick: Rams (-2.5)
Jared Goff is awful. Plain and simple. I haven’t seen a number one pick look this awful since watching the Browns, Buccaneers, and Panthers over their first two game, but if there was ever a spot for he and the Rams to turn things around, it’s against the Falcons. He’ll be playing in a dome, so his frail hands won’t be too cold to throw the ball, and the secondary he’ll be up against would make Miami Josh Rosen look like UCLA Josh Rosen. They also just brought in Jalen Ramsey, which is a great addition after just losing Aqib Talib to injury, so if they shadow Julio with him, their defense should have a little bit of an easier time against Matty Ice. For as awful as JG has looked, the Falcons as a whole look even worse, which is impressive, which is why I’m fading them, even at home. The Rams should have no issue winning by more than a field goal, which is why I’m making this my SuperLock pick this week.
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills (-16.5)
Pick: Dolphins (+16.5)
I don’t even know. I guess it’s a revenge game for Ryan Fitzpatrick, but you could say that about 90% of the teams he faces. The Bills should have no issue taking this game, but by 16.5? I don’t know. Miami showed a semblance of life last week at the end of the game and would’ve won if it wasn’t for Kenyan Drake’s hands pulling a Houdini, so it’s not like they have completely given up. The Bills also get the Eagles next week, so this is a bit of lookahead game, meaning they’re probably more worried about Philly than whatever is going on in Miami. This isn’t to say they won’t win, but I’m not sure they go all out against a tomato can. For that, give me the (Young Dolph)ins against the team not afraid to take 100 shots.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals
Pick: Jaguars (-3.5)
Going down this slate, it seems like every game gets worse. This one may not be easy to watch, but it should be easy for Jacksonville to win. They did lose Ramsey, but the Bengals are down their top two corners, William Jackson and Dre Kirkpatrick, which means Minshew is going to tear apart the entire state of Cincinnati (I’m a geography major don’t question me). For what it’s worth, this should be a huge D.J. Chark game, and with the Bengals’ sorry excuse of an o-line and fanbase, I don’t see any way they keep this within 3.5, and if they were to somehow win, I’d maybe quit this gig altogether. I’ll put my faith in Minshew over Dalton any day of the week and Andy’s devilish hair makes him impossible to side with on a Sunday. Give me the Jags by a million (but more likely 10 or 14).
Minnesota Vikings (-0.5) @ Detroit Lions
Pick: Lions (+0.5)
Talk about a game where a team will be heading into it pissed off. The Lions just got screwed over by a bunch of Footlocker employees on Monday night, getting called for phantom hands to the face and facemasks more than Laremy Tunsil on draft night, and against another divisional opponent, they’re going to stomp the yard like Chris Breezy. On top of this, I just think Detroit is the better team and Kirk Cousins has put up too many competent games in a row, and since he isn’t a yoga enthusiast, I don’t have any sort of confidence in him continuing that stretch. If the Lions lose, their season is over (fact not opinion), but at home, they won't let that happen.
Oakland Raiders @ Green Bay Packers (-6.5)
Pick: Raiders (+6.5)
Once I stopped putting my money on the Raiders, they turned their season around and are now coming off a bye. I want to keep betting against them, but there is no chance the football gods let the Packers off the hook for what happened Monday night. On top of this, I just don’t think the Packers are all that good. Sure, their pass rush and secondary are very strong, but with the Raiders showing they want to, and can, pound the rock with Josh Jacobs without having to rely on Derek Carr heavily to win games, I’m not so sure the Packers’ strengths lead them to a big win. Sure, Rodgers could make magic happen and tear apart this mediocre, at best, defense, but there haven’t been many flashes of elite performance of ARod over the past two years, so give me the Raiders finishing within a tuddy.
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts (-0.5)
Pick: Colts (-0.5)
I love this game. The Texans just blew the Falcons out and bested the Chiefs, so everyone thinks they’re back. False. Their defense is still a mess and calling their offensive line an offensive line is an offensive line (please sign me Roc Nation). As for the Colts, I was wrong about them a few weeks back. I didn’t think they were anything special, but in their game on Sunday night against the Chiefs, they showed they have a legit defense and Jacoby Brissett has been spectacular. T.Y. Hilton is going to tear up Houston, per usual, and in what is a pickem, I’ll take the home team who I think is better in every area save QB and WR, but the opposing secondary should make this gap close quite a bit (not to mention the coaching disparity).
Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants (-2.5)
Pick: Cardinals (+2.5)
I might just be a Cardinals fan now. There’s something about Kyler that is so electric that I can’t stop watching. Their offense has really come together over these past couple of weeks, and going up against another porous defense, things shouldn’t change. Now, on the other side of the ball they do need to account for Saquon Barkley and Evan Engram, two of the best players at their respective positions, which is no easy task with what the Cards have on defense, but with Patrick Peterson back, should be a little more fortified. I know the Giants kept it close with the Patriots last week despite them having an elite defense, but outside of one deep ball to Golden Tate, they couldn’t find any stride offensively. That shouldn’t be much of an issue here, but I’m not sure they can outscore the Cards, even if they’re at home. Give me the ROY and the picks in this spot.
San Francisco 49ers (-9.5) @ Washington Redskins
Pick: 49ers (-9.5)
I hate this game because I feel like the 49ers should be at least 13.5 point favorites. I’m not going to out think myself, though. They are easily a top five team in the NFL while the Redskins are top five if we started counting from 32. I don’t care that they’re at home. I don’t care that Case Keenum is at quarterback. I don’t care about anything outside of winning money, and you don’t make any betting against the 9ers. The Skins’ new HC, who I don’t even know the name of because, as I said before, I don’t care about them, wants to run a million times a game, which isn’t a recipe for success against probably the best run defense in football. I don’t see how the Skins put up more than 10, which is why I think it’s such an easy pick.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Tennessee Titans (-1.5)
Pick: Chargers (+1.5)
I can’t believe what I witnessed last week. The Chargers have went down 14-0 twice over the past two games in the first five or six minutes (hyperbole but also pretty accurate), which isn’t a recipe for success when your QB is more interested in scoring at home than he is on the field. Even after being disgusted Sunday night, I’m still rolling with the bolts. Why? Two things: One, I’m not very smart, and two, I hate the Titans. These two teams played in London last year and the Chargers edged them out by one, but that was with Mariota at the helm. Now, Ryan Tannehill will be slinging the rock, and the only games the Chargers won this year were against second string QBs (Jacoby Brissett and Josh Rosen). All I can do is hope this trend continues, though, I wouldn’t be surprised if they lose 17-14.
New Orleans Saints @ Chicago Bears (-3.5)
Pick: Saints (+3.5)
If someone compiled a list of world’s five greatest mysteries, the Saints being underdogs against the Bears would be like number three. The Saints have an elite defense, a very strong offense, and will have the best unit on the field Monday (located somewhere between Teddy Bridgewater’s waist and knee, but sometimes below his knee). The Bears’ offense is a trainwreck in every sense of the word, and if they were to win this game, it would have to be 3-0. If their defense doesn’t give them extremely good field position consistently, I don’t see how they can move the ball against New Orleans. This is my second SuperLock pick of the week, but it being so obvious makes me a little worried. Who cares, though? It’s just your rent you’re putting on the game.
Baltimore Ravens @ Seattle Seahawks (-3.5)
Pick: Seahawks (-3.5)
I don’t really know what to think of this game. The Seahawks are no question the better team, but they don’t really win many games by big margins. They beat the Bengals, Steelers, and Rams by two points or less and edged out the Browns by just four. Their biggest margin of victory was against the Cardinals, but the Ravens are a much more complete team than Arizona. What I do like, though, is that the Seahawks at home will likely be a tough task for Lamar Jackson, which could slow their offense. The Ravens’ defense also isn’t very good, and even with Peters in the fold, I’m not so sure if he’ll make a big impact on short week with the new team. Give me the MVP at home against a fraudulent Ravens squad.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys (-2.5)
Pick: Eagles (+2.5)
The Cowboys are doing their best Redskins impression with all these injuries popping up. Their o-line is in shambles, Amari Cooper looks like he may not play, and their secondary may be without Byron Jones. The Eagles can pass the ball, and with the lack of depth in the back-end of Dallas’ defense, I’m not worried about them not putting up points. As for the Eagles’ defense, they’re good at one thing and one thing alone: stopping the run. With Amari likely out and Gallup being their sole receiving threat, I don’t see how Dallas can keep up. They’ll try to establish the run with Zeke, who hasn’t necessarily been good against anybody thus far, so playing Philly shouldn’t buck that trend. In a divisional game, give me the team that I can actually trust to hang a crooked number despite being road dogs.
New England Patriots (-9.5) @ New York Jets
Pick: Patriots (-9.5)
All the Patriots do is crush teams’ dreams. The past two weeks they looked shaky early on and made the opposing team garner some hope, and then, stomped all them. Coming off a big win with the return of Sam Darnold, I see much of the same happening on Monday night. Yes, they looked really good against the Cowboys, but this is New England we’re talking about. Their defense will give the 18 year old fits and even if their offense isn’t elite, they will have good enough field position all game to put up points. I need to see Sam(ono) two weeks in a row before I’m back in on this team, and after what the Patriots have been doing, I can’t be out on them. This pick pains me, but I’ll rock with New England in a divisional matchup against Gang Green.