Fantasy Football Week 7 - Waiver Wire Top Adds

by Nick Ercolano October 17, 2017

Fantasy Football Week 7 - Waiver Wire Top Adds

Every Tuesday afternoon I'll send this sheet out to the interwebs, highlighting this week's top waiver wire pick-ups.
Criteria to Make this List:
  • All players must be owned in less than 50% of Yahoo Leagues.
  • FAAB is based on $100 budget. Y'all can do the simple math if your league isn't $100... The first bullet for each player is how much I would recommend spending on your league.
  • Is this FA Worthy of your top waiver wire claim?​ The second bullet is whether or not I would recommend spending your #1 WW claim on this player.

Sorry for any typos, I'v g0t no tyme to proophread.

Quarterbacks

    Andy Dalton - Bengals (46% Owned)

    • $3-6 ($8-15 if you owned A-Rod)
    • I would NOT use #1 claim.
    • Coming out of their bye and without much leaned on TE Tyler Eifert, Dalton's not exactly a dream start @ PIT, a super underrated pass defense, but for the ROSzn, Dalton might be the best thing you can find on your waiver wire. For those who had Aaron Rodgers...
    • After a real slow start to the szn, Bill Lazor took over as new OC in Week 3 and things have "rolled" in Cincy since the. Dalton has averaged over 275 passing yards a game since Week 3 (3 games) and has 7 touchdowns in that span. Only 4 QBs in the NFL had more in that time and Dalton has the 4th highest completion % (78.2%) during the run.
    • Over the remainder of their fantasy schedule (10 games), Dalton and the Bengals get IND, CLV, CHI and Det (Week 16 aka chip week) all at home and an easy road game at TEN. That's 5 of 10 weeks that Dalton will be in the QB1 conversation.

    Tyrod Taylor - Bills (36% Owned)

    • $2-5
    • I would NOT use #1 claim.
    • Tygod is definitely more of a desperation play but he may have the easiest QB schedule of any over the next four weeks.
    • Coming off of a bye, the Bills get a home game against the Bucs would have allowed 300 passing yards and/or multiple passing TDs to every QB they've faced this season, which include names like Mike Glennon, Case Keenum and Eli Manning. They're allowing the 2nd most passing yards per game to opposing QBs (301.6) and rankes 30th in yards per attempt (8.2).
    • After TB at home, the Bill stay in Buffalo to take on Oakland before traveling to NYJ in Week 9 followed by another home game against NO. While Taylor's numbers haven't been consistently there for fantasy purposes, he's had a brutal slate to start the year, playing 3-of-5 on the road, against tough opponents. Against much lesser competition, Taylor get's 3-of-4 home games over the next month of the season. In his two homes games this szn (DEN, NYJ), Taylor has averaged nearly 19 standard fantasy points. 
    • I know TT is a hard sell with all the injuries that've accompanied this offense, but he'll always have that rushing floor to help boost him if nothing else, ranking 2nd among QBs in the NFL with 32 rushing attempts on the season despite having already endured his bye week.
    • By the time that four game stretch is over, both Jordan Matthews and Charles Clay should be back to full health, in time to stash Taylor on your bench until he gets a ridiculously easy stretch of games for a championship fantasy run: Week 13 - NE, Week 14 - IND, Week 15 - MIA, Week 16 - @NE.

    Running Backs

    Wendell Smallwood (34% Owned) - Eagles

    • $5-7
    • I would NOT use #1 claim.
    • Smallwood's sat out of the last two Eagle's games with a knee injury, but was questionable on a short week against CAR for TNF, getting 10 days of rest before their Week 7 game, I'd guess he'll make his return.
    • With Smallwood out, I figured he'd leave the door open for either Kenjon Barner or UDFA Corey Clement. Wasn't the case. In Smallwood's two-week absence, Barner gained just 39 total yards on 11 touches and Clement 41 on 10. More notably, each only had one catch over the two game span.
    • Smallwood is the passing option here as long as he's healthy, along with competition to Blount for carries. Before missing the last two games, Smallwood, had 80 and 79 total yards in the games after Sproles went down, combined for 27 touches in the two games and scored a goal-line touchdown. If active, Smallwood is a good bet for 12+ touches, including 2-4 receptions a game.
    • The Eagles get 3 straight home games coming off their big win on TNF against CAR and, as reported by Jimmy Kempski, they won't have to travel again for 39 days. In Philly they'll take on Washington, SF and Denver before their Week 10 bye. Both WAS and SF have given up plenty of big games to RBs in the passing game this year.
    • Through a string of bye weeks and a messy RB landscape, Smallwood is a sneaky good RB2/flex fill for PPR leagues.

    Alex Collins - Ravens (31% Owned)

    • $5-7
    • I would NOT use #1 claim.
    • I'll just continue leaving Collins' name on this list in hopes that the Ravens realize he's an infinitely better runner than Buck Allen. It's taken long enough, but Collins finally out-touched Allen 15-13, notching another very impressive rushing performance, gaining 74 yards on 15 carries and now sports a 6.4 ypc number on a not-that-tiny 52 carry sample size. Compare that to Allen's 3.7 yards per carry on 76 totes.
    • Collins has only two targets on the year and had just 27 receptions in 38 college games so it would be stupid to expect him to make an impact in the passing game, that'll still be Allen's role.. until Woodhead returns.
    • He's a stash play now, but if they start feeding Collins 15 carries a game he could start creeping into that standard RB2 conversation.

    Charcandrick West - Chiefs (6% Owned)

    • $0-1
    • I would NOT use #1 claim.
      • Clear Kareem Hunt handcuff. 
      • Possibly in concussion protocol.

      Matt Forte - Jets (21% Owned)

      • $6-10
      • I would NOT use #1 claim.
      • This is honestly the most typical fantasy football shit storyline I've encountered.
      • Powell has a monster game. Everyone starts him the following week, only to bust big time and leave with injury. Everyone gets super excited about Elijah McGuire, only for Forte to return and ruin his upside. Forte has the best fantasy game for a NYJ running back in Week 6.
      • Forte touched the ball 17 times in their bullshit Week 6 L to New England. 9 rushes for 22 yards and 8 catches for 59 yards. He looked completely healthy and rookie McGuire only saw 10 touches. 
      • We have no timetable on Powell's return (calf), but if he's out again, Forte could be in for a big workload over the next couple of weeks with good matchups @MIA and home against Atlanta.
      • He'll see the large majority of targets in the backfield as long as Powell is sidelined and has a nice floor in PPR leagues. Forte's a must-own if he continues to miss time. If Powell is back, none of them are recommended fantasy starters.

      Dion Lewis - Patriots (10% Owned)

      • $10-18
      • I WOULD use #1 claim.
      • Dion Lewis is far and away the best running back on the Patriots roster - something I've echoed for a couple of years... health aside. He provied it again on Sunday, rushing for 52 yards on 11 carries and scoring a touchdown from a yard out.
      • Looking fully healthy and back to his Madden-juke/spin move on 99 type shit, Lewis is making a case to be the clear lead back in this offense. Gillislee hasn't done shit since Week 2 and WAS strictly TD dependent. However, following a fumble in their Week 6 game, Dion Lewis became the goal-line back and succeeded in scoring. He saw a szn-high 11 carries on Sunday, which makes three weeks of an increase carry workload. What's scary here is that he's also the best receiving back on the roster, and possibly in the entire league, despite what you think about James White. And they're not (yet) using him in that role. He has just 7 targets in the Pats 6 games.
      • Among 52 RBs with at least 30 carries in 2017, Lewis ranks 6th in yards per carry (5.0), 4th in yards after contact (3.5) and 2nd in tackles alluded/carry (0.33).
      • More importantly, Lewis has seen his snap count rise continuously WoW and led the backfield with 29 snaps in Week 6. I have to say it, it's the NE backfield so we really have no idea what's to come on a week-to-week basis, and Rex Burkhead has to be returning soon, so the water is muddy, but Lewis is one of the few RBs in the league that passes the eye test with flying colors and there is opportunity to be taken in the near future.
      • It's possible Lewis isn't playable weekly, but the upside is too great for me to ignore at this point.

      Orleans Darkwa - Giants (9% Owned)

      • $4-6
      • I would NOT use #1 claim.
      • My bad, did I say the Jets thing was the most fantasy football type shit ever? I should've saved that for this. It was an easy one to see coming tbh and I wrote about it in my WW piece last week. While everyone was hyping up the NYG rookie RB Gallman, Darkwa has simply been too good this year (5.7 ypc prior to Week 6 game vs. Den) for them to simply phase him out.
      • Agains the NFL's stiffest run defense, in Denver, Darkwa amazingly racked up 117 yards on 21 carries (5.6 ypc) adding a catch for 13 yards. That 117 rushing yard total is 15 more than Melvin Gordon, Zeke, Shady McCoy, Lynch/Richard had combined for (102) in Denver's first four games this year.
      • Amazing what a simple shifting of offensive line personnel and play-calling duties will do to an offense. 
      • There's definitely still cause for concern, however. I don't expect the Giants to bolster game scripts like this going forward. 9 of Darkwa's 21 carries (and 47 yards) came in the 4th quarter while killing clock. Gallman was still very much involved, seeing 11 touches. It wouldn't surprise me one bit to see a near even touch-split going forward. Don't be shocked when you start Darkwa next week and he goes 12-41 without a touchdown. The Giants next 3 weeks: SEA, Bye, LAR. 

      Wide Receivers

          John Brown - Cardinals (43% Owned)

          • $5-10
          • I would NOT use #1 claim.
          • Still sitting unowned in many Yahoo leagues, Brown needs to be picked up. He's looking better and better each week he gets on the field and didn't disappoint on Sunday, catching 3-of-4 targets for 63 yards and a touchdown. Don't be alarmed by the low target total, Palmer only had to throw 22 times in the game.
          • Brown's seen 18 targets over Arizona's last 3 games and he's found paydirt in byke to byke outings. From weeks 4-6, Brown is fantasy's WR15 in standard and WR24 in PPR. He's the clear-cut WR2 in this offense now, seeing more snaps than any WR not named Larry Fitz over the last few weeks.
          • Palmer looks full revived in an offense that gets a huge lift with the Jesus Christ like rise of Adrian Peterson. I hit on all of these points last week, but Brown and Palmer really be going together like lamb and tunafish. His deep ball mentality matched with Brown's speed and stellar in-air ball ability is mwaaaa. Brown's aDOT over the last 3 weeks is 17.4 while he's rockin a 17.0 yard per reception average.
          • He'll have his up and downs, but he's a solid WR3 going forward in all formats and the potential for a monster game is always in the cards no pun intended.

          Jermaine Kearse - Jets (31% Owned)

          • $4-6
          • I would NOT use #1 claim.
          • A frequent flier rewards member on this list, Kearse put up another usable PPR performance on Sunday, catching all 4 of his targets for 79 yards. Kearse now has at least 11.9 PPR fantasy points in 4-of-6 games and over each of the last two weeks. Say what you want about this team and his talent, but he's simply getting the job done.
          • He leads the Jets in receptions, receiving yards and TDs. 
          • It's clear now that the Jets aren't the team people thought they were going to be heading into 2017.... amazing what can happen when you give opportunities to the best athletes in the world that have been told they're not good enough.
          • Kearse is quietly sitting at fantasy WR19 in standard and WR22 PPR on the szn. After their Week 6 game, Kearse's szn long pace is just about 70-800-8.
          • They travel to Miami in Week 7 before a home game against Atlanta in Week 8. Both teams can be beaten through the air. 

          Bennie Fowler - Broncos (2% Owned)

          • $2-4
          • I would NOT use #1 claim.
          • Emmanuel Sanders left the Broncos Week 6 game versus the Giants with what has since been diagnosed as just a sprained ankle. He's already been ruled out for Week 7, so that leaves him questionable at best for Week 8, he's truly week-to-week at this point.
          • There aren't many offenses, if at all, where the startting WRs have a handcuff but Denver is one of them considering how big of the target market share both Sanders and Demaryius Thomas both command. Through 5 games, Sanders has gotten 42-of-180 targets (23.3%) and DT has gotten 44-of-180 possible targets (24.4%), combining for a massive 47.7% of the entire team's targets.
          • The next most targeted guy? Fowler. On the season, Fowler already has 24 targets, which matched his 2016 total and is one less than his entire 2015 number. With Sanders exiting Week 6 early, Fowler saw a career-high 8 targets. He didn't do much with them, catching just 3-of-8 for 21 yards, but it goes to show that the next man up will fill the role. Fowler's season totals up to this point are 13-140-2, scoring 2 touchdowns in the opening game against the Chargers but hasn't found the endzone since.
          • Fowler will be an upgrade on Sanders in the size department (6-1, 215) with respectable 4.52 speed, giving him an 80th percentile weight adjusted speed score and 82nd percentile SPARQ grade.
          • Interestingly, Fowler and the Broncos will travel to LA to take on the Chargers, the same team Fowler dropped 2 tuddys on in Week 1. With Hayward, and all #1s for as long as Sanders is out, draped on Demaryius, Fowler should be able to find some daylight. He's definitely not a must-start, but he's not a bad fill-in if you're desperate during the bye weeks.

          Tight Ends

          Austin Hooper - Falcons (49% Owned)

          • $4-6
          • I would NOT use #1 claim.
          • As long as Sanu is out, and possibly even in his return, Hooper will be a viable fantasy fill-in. After setting season highs in targets (7) and receptions (5) in Week 5, the Falcons TE done did it again in Week 6, catching 7-of-9 targets for 48 yards. You're not getting wood from it in standard leagues, but there are barely any TEs in the market these days giving half chubs.
          • The Falcons travel to NE to take on a Patriots team that was just torched by ASJ (should have been even moreso but that's neither here nor there), and have now given up a touchdown to the TE position in 5-of-6 weeks in 2017. The Patriots are allowing the 4th most fantasy points to the TE position this year. The over/under in this game should rival one of the highest of 2017. Worth noting, Hooper went 3-31-1 agains them in .. "28-3".
          • After the Superbowl rematch, Atlanta faces the Jets who just let Gronk run savage on em for 6-83-2 and then Carolina who have allowed 4 touchdowns to the TE position over their previous 2 games.

          Jack Doyle - Colts (40% Owned)

          • $0-2
          • I would NOT use my #1 claim.
          • A concussion sidelined Doyle in Week 5, but he came back and was what a lot of us expected him to be when the szn began, the safety valve for the "Colts QB".
          • Doyle struggled hanging onto balls on MNF, but finished with 7 catches, 50 yards and a score on a season-high 11 targets. As Brissett continues to get more comfortable in this offense, Doyle should continue to be a usable lower TE1. We still have no idea about a Luck return timetable.
          • The Colts have a home game against JAX in Week 7, which obviously isn't ideal, but JAX has let up 3 scores to the TE position this year. He's a hold for now.

          George Kittle - 49ers (8% Owned)

          • $2-4
          • I would NOT use my #1 claim.
          • Kittle has 17 targets over the 49ers last two games and is 3rd most targeted (31) player on a team that has the 2nd most pass attempts (241) in 2017. It took a while to get going but Kittle is finally filling the pass-catching role most thought he would in the preszn.
          • What's most interesting about Kittle is the benching of Brian Hoyer in favor of the rookie QB C.J. Beathard from Iowa. The QB and TE were teammates at Iowa for four years (2013-2016) which is almost unheard of nowadays. Kittle didn't see real play time until his junior year, but racked up 42 catches for 604 yards and 10 touchdowns over the final two years of his collegiate career, averaging 14.4 yards per reception.
          • The last two games, while impressive (11-127-1), were against two terrible defenses vs. the TE at Washington and Indy.
          • The Niners face Dallas and Philly over their next 2, nothing to shy away from. Dallas has allowed at least 3 catches, 44 receiving yards and/or a touchdown to a TE in every week of 2017.

            Nick O'Leary - Bills (0% Owned)

            • $0-1
            • I would NOT use my #1 claim.
            • With Charlles Clay sidelined indefinitely with a knee injuryt, O'Leary will be the next man up in this Bills offense. I feel like I've said that 41 times already this year.
            • Per John Daigle (@notJDaigle on Twitter), "Tyrod Taylor had 25 attempt without Charles Clay on Sunday. Nick O'Leary led #Bills with 7-of-25 targets (28%)."
            • That target market share was right around what Clay was seeing while healthy. Taylor will have to throw the ball somewhere, and it can't be Jordan Matthews or Charles Clay for the time being. It would probably be in Taylor's best interest for it not to be 2nd-round rookie Zay Jones either, who's been atrocious in 2017. We've already seen Taylor choose that guy to be O'Leary.
            • He's a viable PPR streamer for the time being.. The Bills take on TB, OAK, @NYJ, NO. Zamn do I wish Clay was healthy for this stretch.

            Defenses

            New Orleans Saints vs. Green Bay Packers (5% Owned)

            • $0-1
            • I would NOT use #1 claim.
            • Yup, this is happening. The Saints defense is transforming in front of ours eyes like some chameleons. Nah, they're still not great, but they have a lot of great young talent and this side of the ball for NO is playing the best it has in probably the last half-decade.
            • It's the perfect storm as they travel to Green Bay to take on the Aaron-Rodgerless Packers at Lambeau. The Saints defense has scored 62 fantasy points over its last 3 weeks, as per a tweet from I think Michael Fabiano (?), that's more fantasy points than 28 teams have for the entire szn.
            • The Saints sport a pair of CBs that rank inside PFF's top-10 graded CBs in Ken Crawley (10th) and Marshon Lattimore (4). Their front 7 is also underrated, anchored by the league's #1 edge defender in Cameron Jordan. They've racked up 13 sacks, 9 turnovers and 3 TDs over the last 3 games....
            • On the flip side, Brett Hundley was the opposite of great coming off the bench in Week 6, completing just 18-of-33 passes with 3 interceptions. They weren't all his fault, and TyMont dropped an easy TD on the goal-line so the game might've been better for Hundely, but with the Saints coming on really strong and GB onto it's backup QB, the Saints will probably be one of the chalkiest defenses in DFS this week.

            Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos (6% Owned)

            • $0-1
            • I would NOT use #1 claim.
            • The Chargers, on a 2-game win streak are finally starting to win games, and are slowly getting better, especially on the defensive side of things. They have 6 sacks and 3 interceptions over their last two games and will look to build on that in Week 7 with a home divisional matchup versus Denver.
            • Denver, on the other hand, will be without a key COG in this offense in Emmanuel Sanders. They've been struggling with him on the field as of late to begin with. The Broncos have lost 2 of their last 3 games and haven't scored more than 16 points since Week 2, and are averaging just 14 points over their last 3 games, Siemian turning the ball over 4 times in that span.
            • While Chargers stock is heading up, the Broncos is heading down while having trouble finding an identity on the offensive side of the ball.
            • Surprisingly, the Chargers are very slight favorites in this game at home, with an over/under total on the lower side (42). I'm sure a ton of people will be putting money on the Broncos, but it looks like a trap game to me, and I'd roll with the bolts!

              Additional Notes

              • Teddy Bridgewater is available to return next week... We may have seen the last of Sam Bradfraud in a Vikings uni.
              • We still have no idea what's really going to happen with the Zeke suspension until the Cowboys step on the field in Week 7, but as of me writing this, the 6-game SSPN is a real thing. Both Alfred Morris (54% owned) and Darren McFadden (50%) should be picked up everywhere. Tempers need to be managed accordingly, however. Despite being a healthy scratch for the Cowboys first 5 games, beat reporters rumor McFadden to be the favorite of owner Jerry Jones and could wind up as the workhorse in Dallas. Other reports have OC Scott Linehan pledging allegience to Alfred Morris, saying he's earned the job. Rod Smith is expected to mix in as well. Either way, this offensive line and the run game isn't as dominant as it was in 2016, and none of these backs are able to make their own production close to the level of Zeke, so it's a downgrade all around. If I had to side with one back long term, it's probably DMC, but it wouldn't surprise me to see a full RRBC over the next month and a half.

              • At TE, Kroft (10% owned) isn't the worst pick up if you're really desperate given Eifert's szn ending injury. Kroft has at least 3 catches in each game since Eifert's been out (3 games) and had a 2-TD game in Week 4.

              • Engram and ASJ need to be picked up asap and are still somehow available in 31% and 39% of Yahoo leagues, respectively.


              Nick Ercolano
              Nick Ercolano

              Author



              Leave a comment


              Also in Blog

              Week 11 Pickem'
              Week 11 Pickem'

              by Noah Pires November 15, 2018

              Week 11's picks are in, and finally, we have reached .500. Going 28-13 over the past 3 weeks will do that. If you want some cheddar, roll with these picks against the spread, even if they're made by a complete bozo.

              Continue Reading

              Week 11 - Trade Targets (Buy-Low & Sell-High) | 2018 Fantasy Football
              Week 11 - Trade Targets (Buy-Low & Sell-High) | 2018 Fantasy Football

              by Nick Ercolano November 15, 2018

              The top buy low and sell high trade targets for Week 11 of 2018 fantasy football. Enjoy ya bish.

              Continue Reading

              Week 11 D/ST Streamers
              Week 11 D/ST Streamers

              by Noah Pires November 14, 2018

              Start Gearing Up For The Fantasy Playoffs. Here Are The D/STs To Stream In Week 11:

              Continue Reading