by Nick Ercolano
October 15, 2018
Week 6 is in the novels, so we're looking at snatching the gold mines off of the waiver wire. Let's get it. This list is the top waiver wire adds for Week 7 of the 2018 fantasy football season and will only be composed of players owned in 55% or less of Yahoo leagues.
This could be a big Monday night game in terms of waivers. On the Packers side, we have a lot of injury concerns and aren't sure who will be active. Geronimo Allison is only owned in 47% of leagues, Cobb 57%, MVS 11% and ESB 0%. So keep an eye on this. On the flip side, almost the same thing. We have C.J. Beathard, who isn't a pretty option, but he's averaging 324 passing yards and multiple touchdowns in the two games since taking over as the QB in SF. They get LA at home in Week 7 so it could be a high-scoring affair in which he has to throw the ball a ton. As for his weapons, Marquise Goodwin is finally back healthy and is owned in only 41% of leagues meanwhile Dante Pettis has been ruled out, Garcon is less than 100%, Trent Taylor is doubtful, they have no WRs left. Goodwin is in for a sneaky good night on MNF.
1. Baker Mayfield - Cleveland Browns
- Yahoo Ownership: 42%
The brutal part of Mayfield's schedule is finished with. Now comes the cake. A matchup against TB all but assures quality fantasy numbers as no QB has thrown for less than 334 yards against them this year, and over their last three games the Bucs have allowed 12 passing touchdowns to opposing QBs.
- Next three matchups: @TB, @PIT, KC, ATL
- Use #1 Waiver Wire: No
- FAAB Spend: $3-5
2. Mitchell Trubisky - Chicago Bears
- Yahoo Ownership: 29%
After a brutal start to the 2018 season, by passing standards and the eye test, Trubisky has bounced back in a big way over the Bears' last two games. Coming off their Week 5 bye, Trubisky was able to throw for 316 yards and three touchdowns against a previously feared Miami defense who had allowed the 2nd fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs. Trubisky seems to be finding a groove, and he's now thrown for over 315 yards in each of the last two games including 9 passing touchdowns.
Next week, they'll get a home game against NE who have allowed back-to-back QBs to throw for over 350 yards and 3 touchdowns, in a game with a 50 point over/under. I'm not completely sold on Trubisky, as the low # of passing attempts are still somewhat concerning. He's yet to throw the ball more than 35 times in a game and currently ranks 24th in the league in attempts. We'll get a better idea of Trubisky over these next few weeks.
- Next three matchups: NE, NYJ, @BUF
- FAAB Spend: $5
3. Joe Flacco - Baltimore Ravens
- Yahoo Ownership: 27%
If you've rostered Flacco over these last couple of weeks, I'd hope you haven't been starting him. He posted his two worst statistical games of the year in Weeks 5 & 6, so it probably won't be too hard to get him from the waiver. But, he had to travel to Cleveland and then to Tennessee, neither of which are easy to pass against. He managed to throw for nearly 300 vs. CLV and they didn't need him against TEN who they wiped the floor with.
In Week 7, Flacco will have a much easier time finding success through the air at home versus the Saints defense who have allowed the 3rd most FPs to the QB in 2018. This game has an over/under of 50. Don't be scared to stream Flacco in Week 7.
- Next three matchups: NO, @CAR, PIT
- FAAB Spend: $2-4
4. Eli Manning - Eli Manning
- Yahoo Ownership: 22%
Listen, for as bad as Eli's been, he's a streamable option in Week 7 in Atlanta, who have allowed the 4th most FPs to the QB and Barkley should absolutely eat in this one through the air. Eli's last two road games have resulted in 326-2 and 297-2 lines. The Falcons have played four home games in 2018. The four opposing QBs have thrown for at least 335 yards and 3 touchdowns. If there's ever a time you're desperate and need to stream Eli, now would be that time.
- Next three matchups: @ATL, WAS, BYE
- FAAB Spend: $1-3
1. Latavius Murray - Minnesota Vikings
- Yahoo Ownership: 49%
The NFL makes no sense. Murray's performance on Sunday only makes that more clear. Cook was supposedly ready to take on 25-30 snaps in this one, before a sudden set back in pregame warmups, suggesting he's still a bit far off from returning. Murray had been awful in 2018 prior to Sunday, rushing for 155 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries.
If Cook sits again, and judging by him telling us he does not want to play unless he is 100%, could be another game or two, Murray will have more work coming his way. This one game won't wipe away the five horrible games prior to this, so he's still a low-end RB2/3 in my eyes against the Jets who have been mediocre against fantasy RBs this year.
- Next three matchups: @NYJ, NO, DET
- Use #1 Waiver Wire: No
- FAAB Spend: $8-10
2. Marlon Mack - Indianapolis Colts
- Yahoo Ownership: 26%
Mack had been just a stash up to this point, in the hopes that when he returned, something would happen as we saw on Sunday when Mack was by far and away the best runner in Indy's backfield. He ran for 89 yards on 12 carries, catching 1-of-2 targets for four yards. Those 89 yards were the highest rushing total of an Indy back on the year. It seems like Mack is finally over the hamstring issue that sidelined him for the last three weeks.
Mack still trailed Nyheim Hines in snaps, 30-24, but after three straight weeks of being on the field for over 65% of Indy's snaps, Hines only saw 43% on Sunday and Wilkins didn't see the field. Robert Turbin was getting involved but left with what appeared to be a somewhat serious shoulder injury, if he's out that's only more upside for Mack. Hines also only saw 3 targets compared to 2 for Mack after averaging 8.5/game while Mack was sidelined. It's hard to trust him as anything more than a desperate flex play, but he could develop into their top back and a fantasy RB2 over the second half of the season.
- Next three matchups: BUF, @OAK, BYE
- FAAB Spend: $10-12
3. Ito Smith - Atlanta Falcons
- Yahoo Ownership: 9%
You're pretty much getting Tevin Coleman here in the rookie Ito Smith, if Freeman continues to sit. Battling both knee and foot injuries, the Falcons starting running back missed his 4th game of the year. Smith has scored three touchdowns now in as many games while playing a complementary role to Tevin Coleman. He's a deeper add, and will be unplayable if Freeman is active, but if he's not you could do worse than Smith who has a near double-digit touch floor in an offense averaging 31 PPG over their last five, and in a game with a 54.5 ov/un, one of the highest of the week.
- Next three matchups: NYG, BYE @WAS
- FAAB Spend: $2-5
**A couple of other guys if you want to get cute. I get a lot of questions about D'Onta Foreman of the Texans. He's been on the PUP, recovering from a 2017 torn achilles, but I'm not as eager as most to scoop him. We rarely, if ever see someone, let alone a running back successfully return to his former self-form that injury. We haven't heard a positive report in months from Foreman, something did come out a week or so ago from Bill O'Brien that he's on track to return when eligible. So, we'll see. But I'm not getting my hopes up. If you have room, I guess grab him, but I'm not dropping someone worth rostering for Foreman. If he does carve out a role, it might not be until Week 10 or later.
1. Mohamed Sanu - Atlanta Falcons
- Yahoo Ownership: 51%
Sanu was limited all week in practice with a hip issue and then left Week 6's game in the third quarter seemingly re-aggravating it. Along with Sanu, the Falcons also lost their stud rookie Calvin Ridley to an ankle injury. We'll have to see what their status is for Week 6. If Sanu suits up, but Ridley does not, Sanu will be in a fantastic spot to keep his 4-game double-digit fantasy point streak going at home versus the Giants. Justin Hardy will fill in as the Falcons WR3 if either miss time. He's a deeper add as the Falcons play 3WR+ sets on 63% of their plays, so he wouldn't be a full-time player.
- Next three matchups: NYG, BYE, @WAS
- FAAB Spend: $5-10 (depending on injury status)
2. Keke Coutee - Houston Texans
- Yahoo Ownership: 47%
Coutee came back down to earth on Sunday catching just three passes for 33 scoreless yards. He could have had a much bigger day if Watson didn't underthrow him on a deep ball, but those aren't always going to work out. Coutee has been playing on around 75% of the snaps since Fuller's return, so he'll continue to be involved for the remainder of the season, as for how much, it's hard to predict WoW. He's probably someone I'm sitting on my bench unless it's a great matchup, unlike Jacksonville on the road in Week 7.
- Next three matchups: @JAX, MIA, @DEN
3. Chris Godwin - Tampa Bay Bucs
- Yahoo Ownership: 44%
Godwin and Winston have a legitimate connection, and it shows in the QBs first 2018 start. Godwin, while out-snapping D-Jax 37-34, hauled in a team-high 6 receptions on 9 targets for 56 yards and his 4th score on the year, giving him a 22% target share. He's found the endzone in every game but one so far in 2018. As long as Jameis in under center and putting up big numbers, Godwin has a high-floor and a high TD probability week over week.
- Next three matchups: CLE, @CIN, @CAR
- FAAB Spend: $5-8
4. Taylor Gabriel - Chicago Bears
Gabriel had 0 100-yard receiving games coming into Week 4 of the 2018 season. He now has back-to-back 100-yard receiving games after Sunday's 5-catch 110-yard performance. The Bears will get a home game against the Pats who, again, will likely need to air the ball out a bit more than normal in this one.
I will say though, the 5 targets did tie a season-low, which I guess could be looked at as a positive. But Anthony Miller returned to game action on Sunday, resulting in Gabriel's snap count to drop to 66%, the first time he's been under 74% all season. It's something to monitor going forward, but it seems like the Bears are going to put to use the money they spent on Gabriel this offseason.
- FAAB Spend: $2-3
5. Chester Rogers - Indianapolis Colts
- Yahoo Ownership: 16%
Rogers has now hit double-digit targets in three straight games. There is no return timetable for either Jack Doyle or T.Y. Hilton. Neither has resumed practicing and I would be surprised if either played in Week 7, which means Luck will continue to feed his horrific pass-catchers. A pass-catching group that saw Ryan Grant leave Week 6 with an ankle injury, and Marcus Johnson who was beginning to see an expanded role get carted off. There's no danger of Rogers being heavily involved once again. He's become an extremely high-floor PPR play in an offense that's pacing out to be historically high in pass attempts.
- FAAB Spend: $4-5
6. Christian Kirk - Arizona Cardinals
- Yahoo Ownership: 14%
It seems as though Larry Fitz has completely faded off the face of the Earth and Kirk has emerged as the number one passing weapon in Arizona, whatever value that has. He's now led the Cardinals in receiving yards in back to back games and has surpassed 75 yards in 3 of his last 4 games.
Kirk is still running the majority of his routes on the outside, while Fitz remains in the slot. I didn't think that'd be a good thing for Kirk's fantasy outlook this year but it's proven me wrong and should be a good thing in Week 7 when they face this Denver defense who has been far from great, and their top coverage CB Chris Harris will likely stay with Fitz in this one. They also get a home game vs. SF in Week 8, so now would be the time to grab Kirk.
- Next three matchups: DEN, SF, BYE
6. Jermaine Kearse - New York Jets
- Yahoo Ownership: 1%
The downfall of Quincy Enunwa came just as they started putting him on the outside and Jermain Kearse in the slot in Week 5. It paid off generously in Week 6 for Kearse as he caught 9-of-10 targets for 94 yards. Over the last two weeks, Kearse has run 93% of his snaps from the slot, clearly, it's something that's going to lead to volume in this Jets offense. We saw at the beginning of the year when Enunwa was seeing a huge target share he was running mainly from the slot. Kearse's 10 targets on Sunday accounted for 33% of Darnold's 30 pass attempts, that's a massive share.
The bigger news is that Enunwa left Week 6's game with an ankle injury and he couldn't put any weight on it. However, if he misses time, hopefully, this won't move Kearse to the outside. Regardless, it should result in a volume bump.
They take on Minnesota at home who haven't been the same MIN pass defense of recent years and just lost this year's first-round pick CB Mike Hughes for the year to a torn ACL. It could quietly be Jermaine Kearse szn in Week 7.
- Next three matchups: MIN, @CHI, @MIA
- FAAB Spend: $5-7
It's funny how quickly the pendulum swings when it comes to fantasy TEs. Like as soon as Vance McDonald had that bad week, everyone dropped him, then he followed up with 7 catches for 68 yards on Sunday. He should be owned if you need a TE. O.J. Howard probably shouldn't have been dropped in the first place, but if he's available which he is in 44% of leagues, please get him. He went 4-62-1 in Winston's first game back, out-snapping Cameron Brate 34-22. Howard was far out-playing Brate early on before the knee injury and I expect the gap to continue to grow. C.J. Uzomah of the Bengals unsurprisingly played well, catching 6-of-7 targets for 54 yards and should continue to provide a solid floor with Eifert out for the year and Kroft in a walking boot. His next two matchups are @TB and vs. KC, two of the top 3 friendliest teams to fantasy TEs. Uzomah will be a top-12 option in both weeks. Ricky Seals-Jones bounced back in Week 6 as well, after failing to catch a single one of his 6 targets in Week 5, he went 5-for-69 against Minnesota. That's back-to-back six-target games for the RSJ and he gets a Denver defense at home in Week 7 that's allowed 4th most FPs to the position.
Try to look for:
1. Favorites (most important),
2. Playing at home
3. With a low over/under total.
1. Denver Broncos @ Arizona Cardinals
- Point Spread: -2.5
- Over/Under: 40.5
2. Washington Redskins vs. Dallas Cowboys
- Yahoo Ownership: 6%
- Point Spread: -1.5
- Over/Under: 41.5
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