All grading, route position %, etc is per ProFootballFocus.com and Football Outsiders.
Danny Amendola (NE) vs. Brian Poole (ATL)
- Amendola hasn't provided the Edelman type production many expected, but give him a break, he's trying.
- DA is averaging 6.4 targets/game and has a great matchup in the Superbowl rematch of a year ago at home vs. the Falcons. Amendola had 8 catches for 78 yards and a score in the big game.
- In 2017, he'll face off with Falcons slot CB Brian Poole (97% routes from slot, 89% for DA). Of the 90 CBs graded and playing in Week 7, Poole is allowing the 7th highest catch %, and is in the bottom-20 for both yards allowed per route covered and fantasy points allowed per route covered. He's also the 8th most targeted CB per route covered, and 1st on Atlanta.
- On the year, Poole and the Falcons have allowed lines to slot WRs of 6-70 (R. Cobb), 7-58-1 (G. Tate), 2-10-1 (J. Matthews), 8-62-1 (J. Landry).
- In a game projected to be a scoring fiesta (55 point total), Amendola is a good shot to find the endzone. He's due.
Devante Parker/Jarvis Landry (MIA) vs. Morris Claiborne/Buster Skrine (MIA)
- I mentioned this previously, but prior to Parker's ankle injury forcing him from Week 5 and to miss last week, he was on a szn long pace of 96-1,227-5 on 144 targets. That's legit WR1 type numbers. He hasn't had a flashy breakout game which is why his numbers have stayed under the radar but Parker is delivering.
- That being said, Parker's "minor" ankle injury is becoming a concern. Although HC Adam Gase claims DP to be day-to-day, he didn't practice again on Wednesday, not even in a limited capacity, so he's very questionable for Sunday.
- If Parker does suit up, he gets a great matchup against Morris Claiborne who will more than likely shadow him like he's done for the opponent's WR1 in each of the previous five weeks and on Parker in Week 3, when Parker managed 8 catches for 76 yards and a garbage time touchdown. Claiborne is this weeks 54th graded CB per PFF out of 90. As per Football Outsiders, the Jets rank 25th in DVOA against opposing WR1s. Parker should eat if healthy, unfortunately it doesn't look to be the case.
- In the previous two weeks without Parker, Miami's slot WR Jarvis Landry has been EATING like he's Eddie Lacy. He has 13 receptions for 106 yards and more importantly 2 touchdowns on 21 targets, which is 50% of his total from a year ago.
- Landry was PPR WR6 over the previous two weeks. As per Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield - Twitter), Landry has 40% of the teams targets and 44% of their air yards over the last two weeks with Parked sidelined, compared to just a 17% air yard share from Weeks 2-4.
- Buster Skrine, the Jets slot CB hasn't been great, but hasn't been terrible. He's the 16th graded slot CB per PFF and the Jets haven't had great success locking down slot WRs in 2017.
- To wrap it up, with Parker likely to sit, or at less than 100% Landry has been dominating and gets a juicy matchup in Week 7.
Allen Hurns (JAX) @ Pierre Desir (IND)
- I might be the only person that loves Allen Hurns this week. Considering everyone is probably indifferent about him. Y'all are still sleeping on him, I'm telling you and he's going to prove it in Week 7.
- He's been quiet the last couple weeks, which I'll chalk up to tough matchups against the Rams and Steelers. Bortles threw the ball 14 times against PITT and Chris Ivory had an anomaly of a game catching 10 balls versus the Rams. Prior to that, Hurns had 10 targets in Week 4, and scored a touchdown in both Week 2 and 3. I'm going to say he finds paydirt again in Week 7.
- Hurns in his own right has been good this year, graded out as a top-20 WR per PFF, ahead of guys like Michael Thomas, Demaryius Thomas and Brandin Cooks. He has the 8th highest catch % in the NFL and gets a gorgeous matchup against Pierre Desir and this Colts pass defense.
- Pierre Desir, the Colts slot CB, grades out as the 77th coverage defender of 90 in Week 7. And don't get confused, even though Hurns has that goal-line WR size (6-3, 200), he's ran 72% of his routes from the slot this year. Some notable slot performances against the colts this year have been Cooper Kupp (4-76-1), J.J. Nelson (5-120-1), Tyler Lockett (4-91) and Taywan Taylor (2-61-1). Pierre Garcon and Marquise Goodwin who run a combined 44% of their routes from the slot totaled 13 catches for 210 yards against the Colts too.
- The Colts are allowing the 8th most FP to WRs in 2017 and over the L4 weeks, have allowed over 33 points per game on average to their opponents. Overall, they're ranked 31st in YPA (8.5) and 30th in passing yards allowed/game (295.8). Only one QB has failed to throw for less than 295 yards on the Colts this year and it was Deshone Kizer who still threw 2 TD passes and rushed for an additional 44 yards and a score. The Colts rank 20th in DVOA against WR1s and 28th against WR2s according to Football Outsiders, whatever you consider Hurns to be. And while the Jags probably want to run down their throat, the Colts have been much better against the run this year than the pass.
- Hurns is a legit WR3/flex play in Week 7 regardless of format.
T.Y. Hilton (IND) vs. Jalen Ramsey (JAX)
- Despite T.Y. Hilton's surprising success without Andrew Luck in 2017, you basically have to sit Hilton against Jacksonville. His target and production totals have been wildly inconsistent and considering he's the only weapon on Indy's passing offense, the Jags will likely stick their star CB Jalen Ramsey on him.
- Hilton's had 2 monster games which are keeping his stats afloat, against two of the bottom passing D's in the NFL - CLV and SF. In the other 3 games, Hilton has just 11 catches and hasn't surpassed 60 receiving yards in any of them.
- The Jaguars are allowing just 5.7 YPA which is 2nd in the NFL and have the #1 ranked defense in DVOA against WR1's, per Football Outsiders.
- I'm not telling you anything you don't know, it's not a hot take but the combination of matchup and inconsistency screams no THANK YOU TY.
WRs expecting Shadow Coverage
Take these rankings with a McDonalds-sized grain of salt.
- T.Y. Hilton (IND) vs. Jalen Ramsey (JAX) [3rd ranked CB]
- Rishard Matthews (TEN) vs. Jason McCourty (CLV) [27th ranked CB]
- Demaryius Thomas (DEN) vs. Casey Hayward (LAC) [13th ranked CB]
- Sammy Watkins (LAR) vs. Patrick Peterson (ARZ) [28th ranked CB]
- Devante Parker (MIA) vs. Morris Claiborne (NYJ) [54th ranked CB]
Other Notes
- Patrick Peterson (ARZ) is the only CB that has shadowed an opposing WR every week.
- The top five (5) rated PFF WRs that are playing in Week 7, in order, are Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, A.J. Green, Stefon Diggs and Jordy Nelson... they may be onto something here with their grading system.
- The top five (5) rated PFF CBs that are playing in Week 7, in order, are Jason McCourty, Patrick Robinson, Jalen Ramsey, Marson Lattimore and Tre'Davious White.
- Zay Jones, Breshad Perriman and Kenny Britt are the lowest graded WRs.
- Kenny Vaccaro, Phillip Gaines and Eric Rowe are the lowest graded coverage defenders.
- Only 4 teams have utilized shadow coverage in more than 2 games this year (ARZ, DET, NO, MIN).
- 18 teams have yet to utilize shadow coverage with their top CB/s in 2017.