Week 6 Trade Targets

by Nick Ercolano October 09, 2019

Week 6 Trade Targets

Trade for these guys in fantasy football now or finish 0-14. Even if you already have wins.

Kyler Murray - QB, Arizona Cardinals

[Buy-Low]

  • QB9 on the year throwing just 4 tds (only he and goff are top 10 qbs w/ less than 10 TDs)
    • Never < 16 points on a week
  • 189 rush yds over past 3 weeks (pace of > 1,000 for full 16)
  • 3rd most RZ throws (29), 2nd most 10zone throws (15), just 3 RZ tds
    • Daniel Jones, 21st most RZ throws, is the next QB down the list w/ less rz tds than murray (2)
  • Cardinals 4th in RZ trips/ game, 30th in scoring pct in RZ (30%)
  • Have kicked 7(!!!!!!) FGs inside opponent’s 5 yd line
  • Tough schedule to this point (in red on chart) and bad luck in/around the RZ has led to missed points for kyker
  • as schedule lightens up and offense (hopefully) improves, so will his output.

Le'Veon Bell - RB, New York Jets

[Buy-Low]

  • had ADP of 1.08, owner that has him is likely doing poorly unless they hit on late picks
    • just one td, already had a bye, production isn’t there
  • Lowest snap share – 88%
  • one of two RBs w/ > 20 touches in every game (Dalvin)
  • Defenses they’ve faced have allowed the 18th, 30th, 31st, 28th most points to rbs, have allowed just 4 rtds and 3 rec tds to rbs
  • Darnold return should open up offense (team has attempted 6 deep passes L3 weeks, Darnold had 3 week one
  • Bell 12th in elusive rating among qualified backs, so not like he’s been awful
    • Most avoided tackles on receptions (12), 7th most on rushes (16)
    • Just one game <12 fantasy points (NE)
  • Now faces very soft schedule w/ qb returning

 

Terry McLaurin - WR, Washington Redskins

[Buy-Low]

  • Only wr in NFL w/ >50% share of air yards
    • 13th in air yard in just 4 games (1st on per game basis)
  • (99) 61/986/10 pace (accounting for missed game)
    • 12th in point/game
  • 8th most RZ tgts (6); 6th most i10 targets (4); 12th most deep tgts (9)
  • Had a good game vs pats all things considered
    • Could have had 25 more yards, Gilmore called for penalty, deep ball was dropped
  • Upcoming schedule isn’t perfect (MIN, BUF, CAR, GB) but he performed well against DAL and CHI
    • Gets PHI and NYG weeks 15-16

 

 

Phillip Lindsay - RB, Denver Broncos

Sell-High

I will continue to tell you to sell Lindsay at every point you can. Game logs so far: 8.5, 8.5, 27, 6.5, 22.5. It’s exactly the same reasoning I gave to sell him two weeks ago after his 27 point game, he followed with the 6 point game. We know the talent is there, so these sporadic big games are coming, but he’s not breaking away from this timeshare at all. Royce Freeman actually out-snapped Lindsay 33-28 on Sunday, and he did 34-25 the Sunday before that. Over that same span, Freeman has out-targeted Lindsay 8-5 and out-caught him 6-5, while running 20 routes to Lindsay’s 14.

Lindsay’s two big games have come against the Packers and Chargers, who are ranked 31st and 30th in run defense per PFF - only the Chiefs rank worse. They both rank poorly per FootballOutsiders too, for those skeptical about PFF’s rankings.

Royce Freeman is yet to score a touchdown in 2019, he actually leads the entire NFL in terms of touches without scoring a TD - 71. That’s hard to do. And he’s du to find the endzone eventually.

Again, this isn’t an endorsement for Freeman, it’s one against Lindsay’s consistency. He’s a guy that will keep giving you sell-high opps, and you should take one.

 

Damien Williams - RB, Kansas City Chiefs

Buy Low

First game back, Williams absolutely dominates the backfield work, seeing 34 snaps to Shady’s 14. Carrying the ball 9 times, catching 3-of-4 targets, while Shady didnt’ get a single carry, and was out-targeted 4-2. Williams is back, and it’s his backfield again. He did almost nothing with his touches, gaining just 38 yards on the 12 touches, but that’s what makes him such a good buy-low candidate. People waiting for Williams to get back will see like 4 points and probably be like fuck.

Williams has had almost 0 success on the ground this year, but i really dont care, considering Patrick Mahomes is dropping back on nearly 68.5% of the Chiefs plays. Williams ran 21 routes on MNF compared to just 10 for Shady. It was nothing to do with Shady’s ankle either, Andy Reid came out and said it had to do with pass-blocking, and he’ll clean that up. Not sure how you clean up your pass-blocking after being in the league for 17 years, but i think it’s clear to me that Andy Reid prefers Damien Williams to McCoy, running, in passing situations and moving forward. Even Darrel Williams out-snapped Shady in this one, although Darrel didn’t see a single touch. It’s good because we know for sure this is at worst a 2-man committee.

 

John Brown - WR, Buffalo Bills

Buy-Low

Brown has been quietly good this year, as long as you're playing in some sort of PPR league. If you're playing full PPR, his worst game was 4-51, 9.5 points. In his five games he's gone 

  • 7-123-1
  • 7-72
  • 4-51
  • 5-69
  • 5-75

He just can't find the endzone. But all signs point to a post-bye explosion for Ross. He's currently 7th in the NFL in air yards with a 34% air yard market share on the Bills, quietly 11th in the NFL in receiving yards overall (390), on pace for 1,250 receiving yards, with an overall 22% target share. He's their WR1, unquestioned in terms of value to the team.

Brown ranks top-10 in the NFL in deep targets, while Allen is top-10 in terms of % of his throws as deep balls.

But, their schedule gets magical after the bye:



Nick Ercolano
Nick Ercolano

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