Week 5 - Top DFS Picks & DraftKings Lineups

by Nick Ercolano October 06, 2018 1 Comment

Week 5 - Top DFS Picks & DraftKings Lineups

Here lieth my top DraftKings Picks for Week 5.

Quarterbacks

Cam Newton vs. NYG ($6,400)

Why Cam isn't consistently one the most expensive QBs each week baffles the noggin. Cam is coming fresh off a bye, after two weeks of throwing for a combined 485 yards and 5 touchdowns, to go along with 78 rushing yards and a couple of ground scores. Cam is averaging over 9 rushing attempts/game leading the NFL as well as in rushing yards (136) and touchdowns (3). 

The Giant will travel south after an admittedly strong defensive performance against Drew Brees in Week 4, but they've allowed a QB to run for at least 28 yards against them in all four game so far. The Panthers will also be getting starting guard Trai Turner back in their lineup in Week 5. 

Cam is my overall QB1 in Week 5. 

Andy Dalton vs. MIA ($5,900)

Dalton has been red hot this season, throwing or multiple touchdowns in all four games and is averaging 318 yards and 3 touchdowns/game over their last three outings.

Dalton and the Bengals get a road game against a banged up Dolphins defense coming off a slaughter by New England in which Brady threw for 274 yards and 3 touchdowns. MIA will be without William Hayes (DL), Bobby McCain (DB), and possibly, if they play, less than 100% Reshad Jones and Andre Branch. While they've been surprisingly good on the defensive side of the ball in 2018, Miami should get torched in this one by the fire crotch.

Running Backs

~~ The Gabagool ($7,000-$9,000) ~~

Melvin Gordon vs. OAK ($8,600)

Oakland is getting killed by RBs in 2018 with the exception of Kenyan Drake in Week 3. Gurley smashed in Week 1, before the Denver duo did in Week 2, as did the Browns trio of backs who combined for over 240 total yards and 3 touchdowns from the backfield.

Gordon has been nothing but an elite fantasy RB every week, Week 5 should be no different.

James Conner vs. ATL ($7,500)

Conner's been mediocre, at best, since Week 1, but he's handled 93% of the Steeler's backfield touches in 2018 during Bell's absence, and there's no notion of that changing.

As we well know by now, the Falcons are awful at defending running backs in the passing game, and Conner is averaging 4.5 catches/game so he comes with a gorgeous floor/ceiling combo as a receiving back against this Falcons defense allowing the 5th most fantasy points to the position. You're getting the volume in a plus matchup here with Conner.

~~ Extra Medium ($5,000-$6,999) ~~

Joe Mixon vs. MIA ($6,800)

With Gio ruled out, and Mixon ready to roll in Week 5, the breakout sophomore back, who was handling upwards of 90% of Bengals RB touches prior to the knee issue, will be back to his RB1 status given the lack of competition for touches.

Miami is currently allowing the 4th most fantasy points to the RB position on the year. The loss of Ndamukong Suh, as well as now William Hayes, showed in Week 4 as rookie stud Sony Michel ran for 112 yards and a score.

In a super favorable game script for Cincy, Mixon should eat and get seconds in this one.

T.J. Yeldon @ KC ($5,600)

One of the chalkiest plays of Week 5 will go to Yeldon, who will fill in as the workhorse for Jacksonville as long as Leonard Fournette is sidelined with his hamstring injury.

Yeldon out-touched Corey Grant after Fournette left last week's game 17-3 and out-snapped him 43-7. It's clear whose backfield this is, and in what will undoubtedly be the highest scoring projected point total (50) Jacksonville will have all year, Yeldon is a good bet to touch the rock 18+ times, mixing in 3-5 catches and find paydirt.

~~ The Profit Clurb (Under $5,000) ~~

Aaron Jones @ DET ($4,300)

After missing the first two weeks of the season, Jones has implemented himself as the favored back in Green Bay. After playing only 25% of the snaps in his first game back in Week 3, Jones was on the field for 38% of snaps in Week 4, which led the Packers backfield. Since returning, Jones has out-carried Williams and TyMont 17-16-9, but what's more eye-opening is just how much better Jones is than the other two.

Jones should still be locked in a time-share, but the work is beginning to shift towards him as the leader. Now, he gets a matchup with the Lions who have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to running backs and a league-high 158 rushing yards/game. With Cobb already ruled out, and Adams and Allison on the wrong side of questionable, it's very possible the Packers lean heavily on the ground in this one. It's a great matchup, and him being locked in a timeshare is obviously baked into his price of $4,300.

Austin Ekeler vs OAK ($4,200)

For the second week in a row, both Chargers running backs wind up on this list. And neither has disappointed so far. And similar to last week, the Chargers are at home, as favorites (-5.5) in a projected high-scoring (52.5) game. Both backs should get plenty of work against the Raiders and I like Ekeler even more in PPR.  

Wide Receivers

~~ The Gabagool ($7,000-$9,000) ~~

JuJu Smith-Schuster vs. ATL ($7,500)

I really want to take Antonio Brown in this one due to the endless amount of fantasy points the Falcons have donated to opposing wideouts, but it seems like defending the slot is really their weakness. We had Agholor in Week 1 (8 catches), Jarius Wright (5-62-1) and D.J. Moore (51-yard TD from the slot) in Week 2, Michael Thomas in Week 3 (10-129) and Tyler Boyd (11-100) in Week 4. 

JuJu, already a high-end, high-volume WR2 (at worst), trails only his teammate AB and Thielen in targets in 2018 (49). You couldn't have asked for a better matchup for JuJu to blast off. The Flacons defense is absolutely decimated, already missing Deion Jones, Keanu Neal, Ricardo Allen and now one of their only studs remaining, Grady Jarrett (DL), meaning Ben will have all day in the pocket.

This game has an absurd 58 point over/under, with the Steelers projected to score 30+ points - everyone's eating.

Brandin Cooks @ SEA ($7,400)

Cooks has been the absolute real-deal holyfield since coming over to LA. This Rams offense is lubed up and running like the McDonalds franchise. Insert X, come out with 35 points. The Rams leading receiver (26 catches, 452 yards), has caught 7 passes in three straight games, and has yet to catch fewer than 5 or go for fewer than 87 yards. He's currently 3rd in the NFL in receiving yards with that 452. Whereas Cooks has been somewhat of a roller coaster producer during his first three seasons in the league, his target count for the first four games: 8, 9, 8, 8. He's clearly a huge part of the game plan and continues to see the consistent volume. 

Cooks currently holds a 32% air yard share from Goff, who ranks 5th in the NFL in air yards (per PlayerProfiler.com) and completing a ridiculous 53.3% of his deep throws.

Without Earl Thomas, this Seahawks team is going to struggle. The splits over the years show that. He's the heart and soul of what's left of this secondary. Cooks has a matchup with Seahawks corner Tre Flowers. Flowers PFF grading of 36.4 is 2nd worst in the NFL among CBs behind only P.J. Williams of the Saints. Cooks should go bonkers in Week 5.

~~ Extra Medium ($5,000-$6,999) ~~

Golden Tate vs. GB ($6,700)

I want as many pieces of this game in my lineups as I can. As surprising favorites (-1) at home against the Packers, with a 51 point over/under, Tate should see tons of volume coming off of an 8-132-2 game in Week 4. Matt Stafford currently ranks 6th among NFL QBs in pass attempts/game and that number tends to increase when the Lions take on their rivals Packers. These are Tate's numbers over the years when playing at home versus the Packers:

Robert Woods @ SEA ($6,500)

For the same reasons and Cooks, I'll also start Woods. Woods is currently WR13 in fantasy, and has come on really strong over the last couple of weeks, averaging 7 receptions for 100 total yards with three touchdowns over the last three weeks. You can't sit him right now. While his matchup against Shaquill Griffin isn't as juicy as Cooks', but it's certainly not one to fear. 

Kenny Golladay vs. GB ($6,000)

Golladay has been quietly very consistent in 2018. He has at least 11.8 PPR fantasy points in all four games this year, but also comes with a super high ceiling on a week-by-week basis, given his size and ridiculous skillset for the RZ.

Sharing time with Golden Tate and Marvin Jones is no longer a concern for Golly as he's starting in 2WR sets and set a career (and team) high in Week 4 playing on 98% of the team's snaps, compared to 93% for Jones and 78% for Tate. In what should be a high-scoring affair, he should definitely get multiple chances to find paydirt in this one, and I'm betting he does just that.  

~~ The Profit Clurb (Under $5,000) ~~

Keelan Cole @ KC ($4,900)

With Fournette out for the foreseeable future, the Jags don't really have a choice but to lean on Bortles and this passing game. Especially in Week 5 at Arrowhead where the Kansas City Mahomes will look to match their NFL-high 36.3 points per game.

I know everyone will be looking for Dede Westbrook in this one, which is exactly why I go for Cole. Fade the public. Fade the recency bias. It's of no surprise that the Jags WRs are taking turns having their big weeks, but I'm still in full belief Cole is the most well-rounded and talented of the bunch. Dede is coming off of a 9-130 game, but a 3-31 game prior to that. Chasing last week's fantasy points is an extra large mistake here people. What we saw last week, is the Jets, who have strong outside CBs in Trumaine Johnson and Morris Claiborne, so the Jags funneled it to their slot where Buster Skrine, a miserable slot CB was stationed.

Cole is still playing at the highest snap rate of any Jags WR, and in Week 5 he'll get a matchup with Kansas City's Steve Nelson, currently allowing the most FPs/route covered, yards/route covered and catch rate of any KC cornerback.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling @ DET ($3,300)

With a completely uncertain situation in regards to GB's pass-catching group in Week 5, it looks ike MVS may be Aaron Rodgers' top option. Cobb will be out, Allison is yet to be cleared (as of Saturday AM) through concussion protocol, and Davante Adams is questionable after tweaking his calf in practice this week. It's possible, and almost likely that all three starting WRs are out. In that case, MVS is an easy DFS play this week tethered to Aaron Rodgers in what I expect to be a high-scoring affair.

Tight Ends

Vance McDonald vs. ATL ($3,700)

When a game has an over/under of 58.5, you want as many pieces as you can get. McDonald is just another piece in the COG. Vance has moved clearly ahead of Jesse James in the pecking order of catching passes from Big Ben out of the TE slot. Over the last two weeks, McDonald has caught 9 passes (4+ in each game) for 174 yards and a touchdown.

Last week, the Falcons allowed four catches for 38 yards and a score to Tyler Eifert in less than a full game a week after letting Benjamin Watson rack up 5-71. Without Deion Jones, Keanu Neal and Ricardo Allen, this team is clearly going to struggle to cover the tight end, McDonald is no exception.

Ricky Seals-Jones @ SF ($2,900)

I liked what I saw out of rookie QB Josh Rosen last week. And I love the matchup RSJ gets against San Fran here. The 49ers have allowed at least one receiving touchdown to the TE position in every week of the 2018 season. I'm not sure what else I need to say for someone priced at $2,900.

D/ST 

Any of the top 3 defenses on DK this week I'd play. All three are home and heavy favorites with an average-to-low over/under.

CAR vs. NYG ($3,300): -7, 44.5 over/under

SF vs. ARZ ($2,600): -4, 41 over/under

NYJ vs. DEN ($2,600): -1, 42.5 over/under

Shadow Coverage 

- Baltimore is the only team in the NFL that has shadowed opposing WRs in all four of their games. In week 4, they implemented using Tavon Young and Marlon Humphrey in shadow coverage for the first time. They will be at full strength at Cleveland in Week 5 with C.J. Mosley and Jimmy Smith (CB) back from his suspension.  

- Minnesota has used Xavier Rhodes to shadow the opposing teams top WR in Weeks 2-4 (D. Adams, Benjamin, Cooks). He hasn't been good in shadow coverage, however, allowing 14 receptions on 17 targets for 132 yards and a touchdown. Rhodes will likely shadow Alshon Jeffery in Philly this week, after a strong Week 4 8-105-1 line in his first appearance in 2018. Jeffery should be a good flex, high upside WR2/3 in Week 5.

- I don't particularly like anything about Jamison Crowder, but if there's ever going to be a time to start him, it's in Week 5 at New Orleans. As 6.5 point underdogs, with an over/under of 52.5, we can expect the Skins to be throwing the ball a lot, and with their starting slot CB Patrick Robinson place on I.R. last week, the Saints will be forced to trot out P.J. Williams to defend Crowder, a week after getting torched by Sterling Shepard, the Giants slot WR. Williams is by far and away PFF's lowest graded CB in the NFL in 2018.

 



Nick Ercolano
Nick Ercolano

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1 Response

James Brown
James Brown

October 06, 2018

I need lots of input; yours is usually the most accurate…..thank you1

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