Week 4 - Trade Targets for Fantasy Football

by Nick Ercolano October 02, 2019

Week 4 Trade Targets

[Insert Video]

Deshaun Watson - QB, Houston Texans
[Sell-High]

Man, this offense is horrendous. They have Deshaun Watson, DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller, but want the offense to run through Carlos Hyde.

This offense looks bad, Watson looks terrible too. He's shaky in the pocket, he's holding onto the ball for so long and I don't want to hear excuses about receivers getting open, just throw the ball to hopkins, when he's not open.. he's open.

He hasn't attempted more than 34 passes in a game yet this year, last year he had 35 or more pass attempts in 44% of his games. 

The offensive line, sure is a bit improved, is still very much a work in progress.

Right now, Watson has been pressured on 73 dropbacks, 2nd highest number in the NFL behind Kyler. He's taken 18 sacks, also 2nd behind Kyler and his 32 hits taken is first among QBs. Last year the Texans led the NFL with 62 sacks allowed. They're on pace for 72 sacks allowed, that hasn't happened in the NFL since the Raiders back in 2006. The production is a concern, but a guy who has missed a ton of time to injury in his NFL career already, I don't know if he's going to make it through the full season with the number of hits he's taking.

A lot of it is definitely his fault, he's just holding on to the ball for way too long, idk something just looks so off when you watch him play.

They play the Falcons at home in Week 5, this should be a big game for the Texans offense, hopefully, but I wouldn't be opposed to selling him after this one.

 

Robby Anderson - WR, New York Jets
[Buy-Low]

Jordan Howard - RB, Philadelphia Eagles
[Sell-High]

David Montgomery - RB, Chicago Bears
[Buy-Low]

Per Jared Smola of DraftSharks:

david montgomery fantasy footballdavid montgomery fantasy football

Complain all you want about Montgomery not getting enough touches, but he's getting plenty. After the Week 1 misuses, Montgomery's been the focal point of this lifeless offense. From Weeks 2-4, Montgomery ranks 7th in the NFL among RBs in opportunities (carries + targets: 63 = 21/game).

Mike Davis was a surprising healthy scratch in this one. The biggest news is the shoulder injury Mitch Trubisky suffered in this one.

"ESPN's Adam Schefter reports Mitchell Trubisky's MRI revealed a dislocated left shoulder and "slight" labrum tear.

Trubisky reportedly doesn't need surgery and will be back "sooner rather than later." He'll make the trip to London in Week 5, but with a bye week scheduled for the ensuing Sunday, he can be unofficially ruled out ahead of time"

If Chase Daniel has to take over, you can bet Montgomery is about to get a ton of work against the Raiders in Week 5.

Todd Gurley - RB, Los Angeles Rams
[Sell-High]

  • playing 71% of snaps, so he is workhorse, but usage isn't predictive of success
  • first game with > 4 targets
  • goff threw 68x, so only 16% tgt share (high, but this is his peak while last year was at 15.9% tgt share for full szn)
  • 13 yard td run was 8th longest rushing td of career (of 49)
  • 34/49 (69.4%) rushing TDs in career inside 5, has just 2 GL carries this year
  • lack of opportunities inside the 5 = lack of predictable TDs
  • brought a ton of value in passing game in 2018, no longer big part
  • RUSHING PACE - 196/876/12
  • RECEIVING PACE - (68) 44/248/0
  • sell coming off big production vs strong defense and high usage recently
  • tough upcoming schedule further hurts upside

Larry Fitzgerald - WR, Arizona Cardinals
[Buy-Low]

  • 19th most deep tgts (6th in deep receptions)
  • 5th most rz tgts (6), most inside the 10
  • trailed kirk in tgts and rec by just one each, now hurt
  • leads team in rec yds and air yards
  • 29th in nfl in air yards
  • kyler 8th in air yards
  • ARI 4th in attempts
  • 23/35 plays in RZ are passes (66% pass rate)
  • 16 game pace ---> 144 targets, 92/1,200/8 , put up these #s facing two teams who are bottom 10 in points allowed to wrs (CAR and SEA) and Det (14th least allowed)

  • SF played 3 games (would be 12th most points allowed on PPG basis)

Josh Gordon - WR, New England Patriots
[Buy-Low]

  • Snap share increase every week à 67>79>88>89
  • 18 targets past 2 weeks, 2nd on team for szn (27)
    • 2nd most air yards (27 behind dorsett)
    • Behind Edelman in rec yds by just 5
  • 2nd most deep tgts on team, Most RZ tgts (tied w/ edelman)
    • Used all over field
  • Volume is there
    • Pats 9th in pass attempts despite winning 3 games by double digits (2x > 30)
  • upcoming schedule is awesome

  • JETS 4th ON PPG BASIS
  • opponents with least points allowed = DAL (played NYG, WAS, MIAMI, NO w/ backup QB) and Cleveland (let 3 wrs top 100 yards, played TEN, NYJ, LAR, BAL)

 



Nick Ercolano
Nick Ercolano

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