Week 4 Fantasy Football Trade Targets

by Nick Ercolano September 25, 2019

Week 4 Fantasy Football Trade Targets

Adam Thielen - WR, Minnesota Vikings

(Sell-High)

  • 2nd in NFL in MS air yards --- 43rd in air yards (offense isnt throwing)
  • 70th most targets (16)
  • 17 RZ rushes, FIVE rz pass attempt
  • cousins 23rd in pass attempts, 22nd in deep attempts
  • threw just 32x in game where they were down the entire time (GB)
  • 39% pass rate
  • lack of deep volume/rz passing + lack of volume overall = low weekly floor and capped upside
  • Only 3 matchups in games where theyll be forced to throw and face bad pass D (philly, Chiefs, chargers)
  • all others look favorable for run game or tough defense for kirk to throw against

Derrick Henry - RB, Tennessee Titans

(Sell-High)

  • every TD has been result of penalty on GL

  • dropped another pass
  • outsnapped last week (38:42), hasn't eclipsed 60% share
  • if you take out his 75 yard TD, averaging just 4.15 YPT (35th)
  • his production is solely based on (inefficient) rushing volume and goal line opportunities
  • TENN 21st in RZ trips per game (2.7); had 4 week one, 2 each of last 2

Sony Michel - RB, New England Patriots

(Sell-High)

  • 22% of snaps despite perfect gamescript
  • allowing 5.7 points per game, 2nd in TOP, should be eating
  • no pass catching work
  • has forced one missed tackle on 45 touches (bad)
  • 56th of 57 backs w/ >=10 carries in elusive rating
  • long of 12 yards
  • 24/45 carries have gone for 2 or fewer yards
  • does have 10 RZ rushes and 3 GL carries, but burk has 6 and 1
  • develin just placed on IR
  • used 2 rbs (includes fullback) 51% of the time weeks 1-2 
  • Michel ineffective without develin??? (10/14 tds thru career scored w/ develin)

 

Davante Adams - WR, Green Bay Packers
[Buy-Low]

  • Adams has been miserable for those that used their first round pick on the GB WR1. 21 targets, 15 catches for 198 scoreless yards. Crazy. He scored 13 TDs last year, 10 in 2017, 12 in 2016. He entered this year as the odds-on favorite per Vegas to lead the league in TD receptions. He's got his work cut out for him because we already have 3 guys at 4 TDs. He's on pace for 80 catches and over 1,050 receiving yards, but that won't cut it.
  • The good news is this, the toughest part of their schedule is out of the way - Chicago, Minnesota, Denver, from a passing standpoint.
  • But next 6 games (fantasy points allowed to opposing WRs rank): PHI (2), DAL (21), DET (10), OAK (3), KC (8), LAC (16). The only two defenses outside of the top 10 friendliest fantasy defenses are DAL and LAC who both have a top coverage shadow corner, Byron Jones and Casey Hayward
  • The schedule lightens up and he's Davante Adams, he hasn't fallen off. He's still grading out as a top-10 WR per PFF receiving grade rankings and he's seen 5-of-14 (36%) deep passes thrown from Aaron Rodgers (per PlayerProfiler.com)
  • The problem is the lack of passing TDs from Rodgers through three weeks. He only has 4 passing scores, puts him in pace for 21.3 TDs this year. He's only attempted 3 total passes inside-the-10 yard line. None of them going to Adams. But Rodgers came out after last week's game and said “Four targets for Davante is obviously not enough, especially on a day like today when there was a lot of soft coverage and some stuff to be hit outside. We’ve got to keep finding ways to get him the ball more often.”
  • They play the Eagles next week, who are giving up 300 passing yards/game and won't have Ronald Darby. They've allowed a 100-yard receiver in all three of their games so far - welcome to the Davante Adams breakout week. They play Dallas next week, and Byron Jones is certainly good, but isn't unbeatable, he ranks 22nd among CBs in coverage this year.

Phillip Lindsay - RB, Denver Broncos
[Sell-High]

  • He's a talented player, of course, he was going to have some good games.
  • GB defense is soft against the run, Joe Holka and I talked about it last week - great against the pass, not against the run.
  • He went 21-81-2 (3.9ypc), 5-4-49
  • I don't like how they're using him on the ground, he's like their thumper it makes no sense. He's averaging 3.6 ypc on the season compared to 4.8 ypc for Royce Freeman. They snap splits is damn near 50/50 though, which is why right now after this big game, it's the best time to get out of the situation altogether.
  • Through three weeks - Lindsay: 114 snaps, Freeman: 109.
  • Through three weeks - Lindsay: 55 routes run, Freeman 56 routes run.
  • The big difference, of course, is the GL role, it's clear Lindsay is that guy for them - he's gotten all 5 carries inside the 5, while Freeman has gotten 0.
  • Now, this isn't me acting out telling you to buy Freeman, it's not, it's telling you to sell Lindsay - this is just not a great situation to for running backs.
  • It's a legit 50/50 timeshare, in an offense averaging literally 15.3 PPG, 30th in the NFL. The Broncos are 26th in pace in neutral game scripts this year, their offense is not moving quickly.
  • Lindsay has a bit of a leg up in PPR leagues because of how involved he's been in the passing game, he's seen 5+ targets in all three games and caught 4 passes in all 3, that's a great floor but those big rushing games we saw on Sunday are going to be very few and far between.
  • Like, at this point, I'd take Chris Thompson and some kind of WR2 for him if you could, obviously always shoot higher when you start off trade talks, but maybe John Brown, or just like Calvin Ridley straight up after a bad week, something like that.


Nick Ercolano
Nick Ercolano

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