Week 4 Recap/Notes

by Nick Ercolano October 08, 2020 4 Comments

Week 4 Recap/Notes

This week sucked ass. on 120 different levels.

ETGD 3-0 in first, got gutted by the 9th place team - no cam, tanny, ekeler, 

GFM 3-0, ekeler, chubb are my starting RBs, traded away mixon, terry, higgins for cmac - last week.

Nothing came up big dogs in week 4.

Another redraft league im rolling in 2nd place, cmac and ekeler were my RBs.

What is this!!!!!!

Injuries

  • Ekeler (hamstring)

This is going to be a problem for Ekeler owners, a big one. The severity is unknown, but from everything I saw/read, I'm definitely on the pessimistic side.

"Ekeler was carted off due to injury late in the first quarter. He hyperextended his knee at an awkward angle. He immediately grabbed his hamstring and could not put any pressure on his left foot. I am hoping his MRI comes back clean tomorrow and he does not have a hamstring avulsion. A hamstring avulsion is considered a Grade 3 tear, and it requires surgery and three months of recovery. If Ekeler escapes with a Grade 2 hamstring tear, he will miss three to six weeks." (Mario Pilato - PFF)

Sucks too, bc after the Saints this week they get NYJ, MIA, JAX, OAK, then a bye. Possible return spot? then DEN. What a shame.

Kelley also ran 13 routes to Jackson's 8.

So Kelley took the most opps and snaps, but had the costly fumble right before half. They did go right byke to him in the 2H to start the opening drive so doesn't look like he's in the dog house.

In my eyes, this is a committee without Ekeler for sure. It's a committee with him lol. Kelley is the back to own, given their schedule as I said before,  NYJ, MIA, JAX - all look like games where Kelley could get into the EZ once or more. But I do think Jackson will play the Ekeler-lite role. Jackson is a guy to add on your waiver wire - he missed a lot of summer with an injury letting Kelley take his role, then got hurt week 1 and this was his first game byke so there was no way they were giving him a full workload, relative to whatever that means for Jackson's workload, but I'm not going to overpay, probably sit him this week, see what his role is and go from there.

Anthony Lynn like Idk why but I really believe he wants to put Tyrod in at QB again. Which is bad news for all parties. 

  • Chubb (knee)

Not good. MCL sprain - he gets put on the IR. He'll be back doe. But that could be anywhere from 3-6 weeks depending on 

Kareem Hunt obviously becomes a top-5 fantasy running back immediately and for as long as Chubb is out.

I know I'll probably get a bunch of questions about D'Ernest Johnson. I'm gonna pass there, he's a 200lb back, that runs a 4.86 40. You wanna get cute, add him in dynasty, don't spend FAAB in redraft.

  • OJ Howard (ruptured achilles)

Gronk has actually rum more routes than Howard in every game this year, and had a season-high 32 routes run on Sunday. I'm not excited about him at all, he's been terrible, but maybe the game plan on how to use him changes without Howard? You can pick him up and see what happens. His next four opponents - CHI, GB, LV, NYG - all of them have actually been stinky against opposing TEs, none in the top half for points allowed to fantasy TEs, the latter three all bottom 8.

- Scotty Miller

We have OJ Howard dead - Godwin might miss this game again. Evans got hurt on Sunday came back and toughed it out, but I wouldn't be surprised if he's actually far less than 100%.

  • Kenyan Drake?

Video on Desktop

Regardless, if somehow Chase Edmonds is not owned in your league - you need to pick him up.

Drake didn't see a single target yesterday.

Chase Edmonds saw 6 targets yesterday
 
Drake has 5 targets through 4 games
  • Noah Fant gonna miss some time, Hamler had a hammy injury - just makes Jeudy a pretty much every week flex start.

Ok enough injury talk, I'm injured with a broken heart.

 

Joe Mixon

Of course it needs to be addressed.

25-151-2
6-6-31-1

Gio - 0 targets, 2 carries

Coming off of my Joe Mixon sell everywhere tour, this was a lock to happen. Here nearly doubled his entire season total of rushing yards, adding 151 to his 164.

But here's the objective truth.

Mixon was a first round pick in fantasy, and he's delivered one good game in the first month of the season. This was his first game above 11 half ppr fantasy points.

It came against the Jaguars. *Show video of breakout finder*

So, yes Mixon had his blow-up game. It was encouraging to see the lack of usage for Gio, but it was the Jaguars.

And now... the Bengals are playing @ Baltimore followed by a road game in Indy. Two very tough defenses against the run.

We'll see where Joe Mixon stands.

 

TB Backfield

  • Rojo looked good.... until he didnt.
  • Without Fournette, Rojo played a career-high 49 snaps.
  • And ran really well, a full 20 carries, for 111 yards, 5.6 ypc.
  • But he was awful in the receiving game, caught 6 of 8 targets... for 17 yards also dropped a couple of passes from Brady.
  • LeSean McCoy got hurt leaving room for Ke'Shawn Vaughn to come in and catch a TD pass, after Arians talked him up last week.
  • Fournette will be back though I wouldn't be surprised to see Vaughn start to take over this pass-catching role. It's a really messy situation right now, that I'm going to have trouble starting any of them with confidence.
  • If Fournette is out again next week, RoJo can be an RB2 flex, but it's a real tough matchup against Bears in Chicago.

 

Houston offense STINKS

  • This was my worry about Watson coming into the year. He's just going to get killed every week.
  • He's been pressured on the 5th most drop backs this year, and he leads the nfl with 15 sacks taken.
  • And he hasn't been good under pressure - his adjusted completion rate is bottom 5 in the NFL.
  • The problem is partly Watson, partly not having a trustworthy guy to throw to when under pressure, but also the play-calling as usual is abismal.
  • They're not giving him any play-action - 15% of his dropbacks are PA - the lowest rate in the entire NFL. 
  • David Johnson just ain't got the sauce anymore. He's like an expired jar of Ragu sitting in your fridge - Duke Johnson came byke and took 9 touches
  • Will Fuller is the only dude you're running out here weekly.

  

Justin Jefferson over 100 yards again

 

DALLAS - d stinks, o is great

I tweeted this out going into the weekend

And they somehow kept the pace and raised. No check, they raised. They ran 82 plays, Dak threw for 502 yards, now on pace for 6760 passing yards. The way this season is shaping up, there's a very real possibility he breaks the single season passing yardage record that Peyton set in 2013 (5477). He would have to average 315 passing yards/game over the remainder of the season to do it.

Dak first QB to throw for 450 yards in 3 straight games

  • Zeke is even ballin in the passing game - caught 8 passes (on pace for 124 targets, 92 catches and 636 yards).
  • Michael Gallup, man. another dud in the box score - what's crazy is he actually played on the most snaps on sunday, ran the most routes

Not good - he is the deep threat - but not efficiently. His ADOT ranks 4th among all NFL pass-catchers with at least 20+ targets this year - but they're just no converting. I guess I'd hold onto him, since bye weeks are approaching and injuries are happening left and right and he at least does have a ceiling that isn't that easy to find on the waiver wire but mane. 

 

Malcolm Brown dominated snaps

  • well here's what it felt like
  • mvcay knew the giants werent going to win this game from them
  • so they were just trying not to lose, completely conservative.
  • But I guess we need to expect the unexpected for the Rams backfield no matter how comfortable we get.
  • just a reminder that we're probably not going to be able to trust anyone in this backfield all year.
  • Brown played on 35 snaps to Henderson's 22. Brown ran 22 routes, compared to six for Henderson. Henderson's 1 target went for 3 fewer yards than Brown's 6 targets did.
  • I really feel like this was just a game, the Rams knew they could win by staying super safe and clearly McVay trusts Brown for that.
  • Could be the same next week @Washington.
  • In leagues where I have these running backs who are injured - i'll probably still have to roll out Darrell Henderson, but it's not gonna be fun.


Nick Ercolano
Nick Ercolano

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