Fantasy Football Week 3 - YouTube Video Notes

by Nick Ercolano September 25, 2017 1 Comment

Fantasy Football Week 3 - YouTube Video Notes

Make sure you're subscribed to the newsletter on the bottom of our home page to get an email each week when the Top Waiver-Wire Pick Ups article goes out. Also, I'm live every Sunday morning on YouTube, so make sure you have your notifications turned on for my channel and are following me on Twitter to get notified when I go live. If you enjoyed my Week 2 video, if I helped you out at all, or if you enjoy this one, make sure you scroll down a bit and just click the thumbs up button real quick for ya boi.

Key Injuries from Week 2

Top Tier TEs

Rob Gronkowski (NE)

  • Groin injury, not supposed to be serious, would label it more week-to-week than day-to-day. I would be surprised if they let him play, they're 2 TD favs @ home versus Houston, so it's not like they need him. Gronk did say he was good after the game when asked though, so it doesn't sound like a long-term concern.
  • He's practicing on Wednesday and is almost definitely going to play.
  • Dwayne Allen is obviously the next TE up, but he hasn't caught a pass yet in 2017 and HOU is very good at guarding TEs for fantasy, 4th against the position this year, think they've only allowed like 11 TDs to the position over the L3 seasons.
  • The boosts here would go to James White, Hogan, Cooks.

Jordan Reed (WAS)

  • Not only is Reed dealing with this fractured toe, and now what they're calling day-to-day with a "bruised chest", but I heard a pod witta doctor tallembout he has a sprained SC joint in his shoulder. Some docta said it's more painful than a sprained AC joint Reed previously dealt with and had missed time for/was limited with.
  • Vernon Davis would be the next TE up here, but in the 8 games last szn that Reed played in less than 50% of the teams snaps, Davis averaged just 3.25 catches and about 41 yards. He scored once in those 8 games. He did return to the game after leaving so I'd give Reed a decent chance of playing in Week 3. HC Jay Gruden did come out this morning and just say Reed is not healthy right now, nothing we haven't know for the last 3 years.
  • They do however have a great matchup @ home for SNF, taking on the Raiders and this game has the highest over/under on the week by far at 54.5. Vegas is expecting a shootout, fire up Terrelle Pryor and Jamison Crowder. Davis is a probably TE12-14 range if Reed can't go.

Greg Olsen (CAR)

  • Placed on IR after undergoing surgery on his broken foot, he's dealing with a Jones fracture. He can play again after 8 weeks which is what the team is hoping for.
  • Unless you have an IR spot that's not being taken, you're dropping Olsen. Ed Dickson is the TE to look for in CAR although he's not a pretty play. K-Benj, Funchess and McCaffrey should all see more targets in CAR now, but ultimately a downgrade for its overall efficiency.

Tyler Eifert (CIN)

  • Eifert played in 89% of snaps in Week 1 and 78% in Week 2. He looked healthy in their week 2 game but reports say he's now dealing with both back and knee injuries, probably the two words you didn't want to hear when associating them with Eifert. He might be held out of Week 3, but I'm still holding Eifert even in this spiraling offense. With new OC Bill Lazor taking over I want to see what happens over the next few weeks. It's very possibly you need an alternative option for this week and maybe next week. 
  • He didn't practice on Wednesday either.
  • If he does play, he gets a Packers d that didn't allow anything to Jimmy Graham or Austin Hooper. It could be a downgrade on Green as well as the defense will key in on stopping him.

Jimmy Graham (SEA)

  • HC Pete Carrol says Graham is dealing w/ an ankle injury, also reports of a knee issue, and that he's questionable for Week 3. He didn't practice on Wednesday but that isn't exactly a dead end considering he barely practiced throughout the year last season.
  • He hasn't done anything yet this szn that makes me want to start him, and with this swiss cheese o-line he'll probably be asked to block more if he is playing. Like Eifert, I'm not giving up on Graham yet, but definitely looking for an alternative option for Week 3.

Last week my play of the week at TE was Ebron going against the GMEN (Zach Ertz won't be on the WW but he's a must start against this NYG defense, even if you need to flex him) - Best alternative options at TE for Week 3, they might be available in your league - Jack Doyle vs. CLV who let up 6-41-2 touchdowns to Jesse James in Week 1 and 8-91 to Ben Watson last week + Doyle is coming off a really strong 8-79 week 2. I don't hate Austin Hooper this week @ DET - Darius Slay will look to lock down Julio while they just let up 5 catches for 87 yards and touchdown to NYG TEs, over/under of 50.5, second highest of Week 3. Speaking of NYG TE's, Evan Engram isn't a bad play @ PHI, I don't love him but PHI did just get torched by Travis Kelce and Engram is more than capable of running the same type of athletic routes as Kelce. Jared Cook is playing in this week's highest ov/under total 54.5 at Washington, who have let up 95 and 93 yards to TEs (Ertz and Gerald Everett) in back-to-back weeks. I like Zach Miller with a 4-5 catch floor in a game they should be trailing to Pittsburg heavily. Ben Watson should continued to get peppered with targets in Baltimore. A super dart-throw is ASJ for NYJ, wrote him up in my WW sheet, this is for deeper leagues, and desperate guys, but he's their only true RZ target, will throw a lot of course and Miami just got torched by Hunter Henry last week.

Other Injuries

Jordy Nelson/Randall Cobb - GB (WR)

  • Nelson is dealing w/ a quad injury and is considered 50/50, Cobb with a shoulder who is believed to have higher chances of playing. Both are day-to-day nothing serious here. If I had to put money on it, they're both suiting up, but they are a 9 points favs @ home, so maybe they don't need em. If one or both sits, Geronimo Allison will be the WR2 behind Davante Adams. Allison played in 80% of GB's snaps in Week 2 with these two sidelined. If that were the case Allison is still likely just a WR3/flex at best.

Corey Coleman - CLV (WR)

  • Another broken hand for Coleman, he's on the IR and will miss at least the next 8 weeks. As Kenny Britt faded (1 catch for 2 yards) and Rashard Higgins out-snapped and out-produced, he's my favorite CLV WR going forward. I wrote about it in my WW piece, so I won't get into here but he's my second fav WW pickup at WR behind J.J. Nelson. If you have an IR spot you can throw Coleman on it, if not I'm not holding unless I'm in a 14-team league or deeper.

Rob Kelley - RB (WAS)

  • He's day-to-day after what was feared to be a fractured rib, it's something or another to do with his cartilage, ain't gonna get into it. He's already back to practice on Wednesday on a limited basis so it looks like he'll suit up Sunday against the Redskins. It's a messy backfield either way. I'm holding Kelley for now, he looked good before going down (12-78). I hope no one broke the bank on Perine or Thompson because it's a full RBBC. Perine didn't look great (21-67). Jay Gruden came out and literally said, Thompson is too small for a big workload, they know how to use it and they're doing just that. He has 6 carries through 2 games, 7 catches so I think he has a nice 4 catch floor, but not a good play in standard.
  • Both guys are a flex play if Kelley sits, but Thompson's touches aren't really going to increase even w/ Kelley out. Again though, it is supposed to be a shootout, so I can definitely get behind another strong game for Thompson in Week 3. But unless you think he's going to keep up this efficiency, than you have to be realistic about his future.

Jordan Howard - RB (CHI)

  • Again out-touched and out-produced by rookie Tarik Cohen, Howard is trending downhill fast. He was spotted in a sling after the game with his shoulder injury.
  • I'd sell Howard at anything near his draft capital if you could right now. If he plays against PIT he's nothing more than a low-end RB2, high RB3, in standard. They're going to trail, like usual, he sucks at catching Cohen is amazing, simple as that.

DeMarco Murray/Corey Davis - RB/WR (TEN)

  • I was shook as shit when I saw Henry dominate the second half, I thought they benched Murray, but it turns out he had general tightness in his hammy and that's why he sat in the 2H. I can't even argue that Henry didn't look way better than Murray has at any point this season, but the fact remains the TEN coaching staff trusts Murray as a pass-blocker and the pass-catcher. Murray still out-snapped Henry 37-30 despite not playing in the second half. Murray is a hold for me, until we see this shake out. Given he's probably less than 100% and they're playing Seattle, I'm probably staying away from both backs in Week 3.
  • Davis I'm a little more concerned about since he missed all of preszn w/ the injury. I'm hoping they give him a week or two off because he has tough matchups vs. SEA and HOU anyways, so he would likely struggle anyways. After that they get MIA, IND, CLV so Davis is a huge hold for me, if not a buy low candidate over these next two weeks.

Sam Bradford - QB (MIN)

  • Randomly sat out Week 2 with this knee injury, a bit concerning tbh. He's dealing with a bone bruise and reports have him day-to-day, likely to play in Week 3.
  • Diggs, Thielen and the rest of this offense badly need Bradford. Keenum averaged just 4.5 YPA in Week 2. If Bradford goes, I'm happy starting all the Vikings. If not, Thielen is probably the favorite here but nothing more then a lower WR3.

John Brown - WR (ARZ)

  • Safe to drop John Brown.. basically like Andrew Luck.. we really don't know what's going on. If I had to put money on it, I'd say Brown winds up missing at least 6 games in 2017, and is limited in 1-2 of the ones he plays in. JJ Nelson was this week's top WW pick up. As for Luck... clearly isn't anywhere close to returning. Heard an interesting theory that they only took him off the PUP to keep fans with some hope, to sell tickets while he was out. Looks like that could be true.

    Notable WR/CB Matchups

    CB Ratings out of 96 CBs.

    Keenan Allen - (@LAC) vs. Philip Gaines (KC)

    • Adam Levitan mentioned that Keenan only lined up right on 12% of his snaps this season so he'll avoid Marcus Peters in Week 3. 63% of his routes have been from the slot, on KC, Philip Gaines defends solely from the slot and through 2 weeks, Gaines is the dead last ranked CB for PFF. He's giving up the 2nd most fantasy points per route run of any slot CB.

    Allen Hurns - (JAC) vs. Ladarius Webb (BAL) in London

    • Say what you want about garbage time, Allen Hurns got it done last week for fantasy owners.
    • He should be able to do it again. Baltimore's a stingy pass defense, but Hurns has run 74% of his routes from the slot while Webb doesn't move outside of the slot. The Ravens CBs are strong on the outside in Brandon Carr and Jimmy Smith, but Webb is ranked the 9th worst CB according to PFF through 2 weeks and is letting up the single most points per route run against him (0.53) and he's had 62 routes against him. Rashard Higgins tore him up last week for 95 yards on 7 catches.

    Mike Evans (TB) vs. Xavier Rhodes (@MIN)

    • This is going to be one of the Evans' hardest matchups all season. Rhodes is a shadow corner back and through two games he's had to cover Michael Thomas and Antonio Brown, so he's battled both height and speed.
    • Going back to 2016, Xavier Rhodes has held Antonio Brown, OBJ and Michael Thomas to 8 catches, 73 yards & 0 TDs. This year in the first two matchups, while Rhodes was guarding Thomas and Brown they combined for 5 catches and 50 yards.
    • Evans (6'5) normally has a huge height advantage on corners, but Rhodes is one of the bigger CBs in the league listed around 6'2 with plenty of muscle.
    • I'm not taking Evans out of my lineup, but I just thought I'd throw it out there.

    Terrelle Pryor (@WAS) vs. David Amerson (OAK)

    • Highest over/under at 54.
    • Reed banged up, Pryor has played in by far the most snaps for the Skins as a WR. 105-87-67-49 - Pryor, Crowder, Grant, Doctson.
    • He had a tough matchup with Trumaine Johnson in Week 2 but gets a much easier one vs David Amerson who ranks 81st amongst CBs according to PFF.
    • Kirk Cousins has averaged 307 passing yards in 8 primetime games in his career (340 in 2016).

    J.J. Nelson (@ARZ) vs. Nolan Carroll/Chidobe Awuzie (DAL)

    • Orlando Scandrick missed Week 2 with a broken hand, causing Dallas to dig into the depth chart.
    • In my WW piece I wrote a lot about J.J. Nelson and how he fits with Carson Palmer like and tunafish. Palmer leads the NFL in deep targets as well as top-2 in air yards, Nelson runs a 4.28 40-yard dash.
    • With John Brown out for Week 3, Nelson will start at WR lined up across from Nolan Carroll, who is PFF's 94th rated CB in 2017 and was awful last year as well. He'll also see some rookie Chidobe Awuzie on the outside.
    • Look for Nelson to break off a few big plays on MNF, as there's a healthy over/under (47) for the showdown. Dallas got eaten up by Emmanuel Sanders in Week 2. Look for another 5-catch, 70-90 yards and I'd give a 60% chance of Nelson finding paydirt.

    Demaryius Thomas (DEN) vs. E.J. Gaines (@BUF)

    • Thomas has been as I expected an okay WR2/WR3 in only PPR leagues this year. Good news for Week 3 though, he should see about half his routes against E.J. Gaines in Buffalo.
    • Siemian has looked great through two games and Gaines has been the opposite, PFF's 6th worst CB rating. Thomas and Sanders both move to both sides of the field, but DT runs about 5% more of his routes from the left side than Sanders (37%) who should see more Tre'Davious White, who's been a surprising bright spot in this Buffalo defense, who's ranked as a top-10 CB for PFF through 2 weeks.
    • Also keep in mind, the Bills have gone against the Jets and the Panthers last week. Cam should have had at minimum two more touchdown passes, one to McCaffrey and another to Benjamin had things broke their way instead of Buffalo.
    • I like DT to find the endzone this week.

    Baltimore (vs. Jax) & Ten (vs. SEA)

    • I'm sitting all of these receivers. No one in the Baltimore group of WRs is good enough to beat the Jax CBs in Ramsey, Bouye and Colvin. I might have threw Shard in my lineup as a WR3/flex had Corey Davis been playing, but Matthews will see a ton of Sherman and I just don't trust Decker enough at this moment to cosign.
    • For what it's worth, PFF has Matthews rated as the 14th best WR in the NFL and easily the best on the Titans so far.

    Other WRs expected to be shadowed:

    1. Alshon Jeffery (PHI) vs. Janoris Jenkins (NYG - #8 CB)
    2. Tyreek Hill (KC) vs. Casey Hayward (LAC - #6 CB)
    3. Julio Jones (ATL) vs. Darius Slay (DET - #12 CB)
    4. Dez Bryant (DAL) vs. Patrick Peterson (ARZ - #14 CB)
    5. Devante Parker (MIA) vs. Morris Claiborne (NYJ - #20 CB)
    6. Kelvin Benjamin (CAR) vs. Marshon Lattimore (NO - #75 CB)

    Murky RB Situations

    Seattle Seahawks

    • Chris Carson dominated touches and snaps while Rawls was eased back into the game, but as has been the case, Carson looks great. Carson received 50 snaps to, Prosise 17 and Rawls just 16. Carson carried the ball 20 times and was in there on Seattle's most important drives, looks like he was shot out of a cannon on some runs. I do want to see how much work Rawls gets as he gets healthier but Carson is the clear RB1 right now in SEA. Among running backs with more than 20 carries, Carson is 4th in ypc, t-3rd in avg yards after contact, and 2nd in tackles alluded/per carry only behind Kareem Hunt. He's the real deal, doing it behind the leagues (arguably) worst o-line.

    Cincinnati Bengals

    • Mixon again led or tied the team in RB touches, but Gio is leading the team in RB snaps on the year, 62-38-25. 
    • Mixon is still very much a hold and buy-low guy for me and I like that Bill Lazor is coming in as the OC for Cincy, maybe he'll change things up. Either way, you can't trust anyone in your lineup from this backfield still.
    • Lazor is a Chip Kelly disciple - and this is the time to use what he's learned big time. They're going to need a fast paced offense, no-huddle type, move the QB around with this offensive line. Dalton is athletic enough to be good in this type of offense and both Gio and Mixon could benefit from quick hits. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Dalton has on averaged 2.59 seconds in the pocked to throw. 
    • Enough with the Bengals haven't scored a TD, that was on Eifert's dumbass stepping out of bounds, he had a TD in his hands. So that shouldn't be a narrative. But it should be intesting to see this shake out.

    New York Jets

    • Welp, looks like I'll hold an L here, I have no idea what the NYJs are doing in their backfield. Forte took the reigns back over in Week 2, out-snapping Powell 27-18, with rookie Elijah McGuire seeing 11. Forte saw 9 carries (53 yards, 5.9 ypcs) to Powell and McGuire's 6 each. He caught all 4 of his targets for 38 yards, while McGuire caught 1-of-2 for 7 and Powell had nothing in that category. They're not in tank mode, they're not in Win mode, idk they're in full we don't give a single fuck mode. Powell is safe to drop I guess, McGuire isn't worth anything in redraft. No back has a goal-line rush yet this year. It's ugly. 

    Houston Texans

    • Uh oh Lamar Miller owners. Miller had 21 touches in Week 2, but rookie D'onta Foreman finally got his chance and looked much better with it. He carried the ball 12 times for 40 yards but looks like he's worked his way into a time share after getting just a single carry in Week 1. Miller's being getting RB1 type volume, but his production has been mediocre. It's an ugly fantasy situation behind a bad offensive line, and an offense that won't see many scoring opps to begin with. I'd sell Miller now if I could and Foreman needs to be owned everywhere. It might be worthwhile waiting on Miller til after Houston's week 3 tilt w/ NE since Miller is definitely the pass-catching back here and they're 2 TD favs so he might catch a lot of balls and turn out a pretty good fantasy day.

    Arizona Cardinals/Philadelphia Eagles

    • Two backfields to avoid completely. K-Williams got the start but eventually gave way to CJ2K who saw 11 carries. In Philly, Blount of Smallwood were barely used at all, Wentz has attempted 85 passes through 2 games and it looks like this is going to be one of the pass heaviest offenses again in 2017. They were #6 in pass attempts in 2016 so this isn't a surprise. Sproles is dominated snaps and he's the only guy I'm touching in Philly, CJ2K would be my RB2 out of these 2 backfields, although their outlook as a team won't be fantasy friendly to CJ2K especially with Andre Ellington dominating passing downs. AE saw 30 snaps, K-Will 18, CJ2K 17.

    Baltimore Ravens

    • Javorious Allen seems to be the back to own here, out-touching West for the 2nd straight week 19-10. He's the clear pass-catcher, but I'm still a bit nervous about Allen, West played a lot in the first half, while the game was still intact and reports say West is dealing with a soft-tissue knee issue which might be why Allen grabbed the reigns. He's listed as day-to-day but they did call Alex Collins and Jeremy Langford up from practice squad, Collins was last week (looked good rushing 7x for 42 yards) so maybe they don't push West and the Langford call up which came this week is sort of a red flag on West.
    • If West is out (he didn't practice on Wednesday) I definitely like Allen as a secure RB2 with upside for their game in London on Sunday, but I'm probably a bit more down on Allen then most. Here's why - don't get me wrong, opportunity is king in fantasy and Allen has that but he rushed for 66 yards on 14 carries, but he had a 37 yard rush at the end of the game, basically un-touched and if he wasn't running like Eddie Lacy he would have scored a TD on it. If you take that un-touched run away, we're looking at 13 carries for 29 yards (2.2 ypc) and they receiving TD saved him which you don't really want to rely on. They just lost their all-pro caliber LG in Marshal Yanda for the year so it might be a hit to their ground game. Looking at some rushing tendencies - rushing to the left in 2017, the Ravens have 8 first downs (7 to the right), 4 negatvie rushes (6 to the right), 4 rushes of 10+ yards (3 from the right). I know it's a lot of pulling strings and poking at different soft spots, but I'm just saying don't go crazy over Allen. He didn't jump off the screen at me when I re-played the game the next day.

    Must Starts

    My must starts from Week 2 were Ty Montgomery, both Mike Gillislee and James White, Bilal Powell and Eric Ebron... So 4 out of 5 ain't bad.

    1. Zach Ertz - PHI (TE) vs. NYG

    • This is easy. Ertz has been great this year. Now has at least 8 targets in 2 straight games (18 tgts are 2nd most among TEs in the NFL), 93 yards in Week 1, 97 in Week 2. He hasn't scored a TD yet, but that's where the Giants come in.
    • The Giants have been awful against TEs so far. They've let up a touchdown to both Jason Witten and Eric Ebron, both caught at least 5 passes. Even if you need to flex Ertz, make it happen.

    2. Cam Newton/Kelvin Benjamin - CAR (QB/WR) vs. NO

    • It's pretty much as simple as them playing the Saints, at home, as 6 point favorites. 
    • The Saints are by far and away the worst pass d in the NFL, allowing 11.2 YPA, the Colts are next worst, allowing a full 1.5 YPA less than the Saints.
    • They've allowed 793 passing yards through two games, and 3 passing TDs a piece to both Sam Bradford and Tom Brady.
    • With Greg Olsen out, Kelvin should see an uptick in targets, although he's already leading the team in targets.
    • I re-watched this game, Cam actually didn't look that bad to me. There were a few bad throws, but mostly fine. I think this is the week Carolina puts it together and Cam resurfaces as a fantasy QB1. 
    • Side note, I'm debating between Brees and Newton in my ETGD league. Brees is not good away from home, and the Panthers actually have the 2nd best pass d (5.3 ypa) so far in 2017 behind just Denver (5.2 ypa). Albeit they played against Brian Hoyer and Tyrod Taylor, nonetheless, they look better. Their top 2 CBs, James Bradberry and Daryl Worley are top-28 CBs in the NFL according to PFF. Not to mention they have one of the best LB trios in Thomas Davis, Luke Kuechly and Shaq Thompson who should be able to lock down the TEs and RBs that Brees loves to use in the passing game.

    3. Ameer Abdullah - DET (RB) vs. ATL

    • I'll go down with Abdullah if it means the end of me. I don't care. 
    • Atlanta is awful against pass-catching RBs, I know. And it should be Theo Riddick here, right. I'm fading the chalk and going with Abdullah. He has at least 17 touches in each of their first two games and Atlanta has allowed the 4th most fantasy points to the position. RBs now have a combined 4 touchdowns and 309 total yards against Atlanta through 2 weeks and they'll be without last year's all-pro edge defender Vic Beasley. Atlanta is also 31st in the NFL allowing 5.4 yards per carry to opposing rushers.
    • The over/under in this one is 50.5, 2nd highest total for the week, if there's ever a place to play Abdullah, it's now, coming off of career-high 86 rushing yards against a stiff NYG run d. Abdullah also had a nice 21-yard catch and run called back on penalty. Factor that in and he has just 12 less receiving yards then Riddick on the season.

    4. Jack Doyle - IND (TE) vs. CLV

    • Touched on Doyle in the injury TE section.
    • Cleveland let up a 6-41-2 line to mediocre Jesse James in Week 1 and 8-91 to 72-year old Ben Watson last week. Jack Doyle is coming off a really strong 8-79 Week 2 game against ARZ who are usually stout against TEs. Doyle now leads the team in receptions, receiving yards, 1st downs, catches of 20+ yards and is tied for 2nd in targets. Doyle has played in more snaps than any WR on Indy. 92% in Week 1, 99% in Week 2.
    • It's good to see the connection between Brissett and Doyle in his first game as the starter because he'll probably rely on him. 
    • Cleveland is actually favored in this one, which can work both ways - it's bad because maybe Indy won't throw as much and have as much garbage time, but it means they'll have more scoring opportunities and drives will probably be extended so Doyle might get one or two endzone targets. 
    • Also worth noting that in 1 of the 2 games Brissett started for NE last year in Week 4, Bennett caught 5 passes for 109 yards. 

    5. Isaiah Crowell - CLV (RB) @ IND

    • Piggybacking off this game, the Browns Week 3 matchup will probably be the friendliest game script Crowell has all year. Coming off a poor showing against the Ravens stout run d, Crowell and HC Hue Jackson spoke about getting the back more carries.
    • Crowell is still dominating this backfield in carries with 27 through two weeks. Duke is the next closest back with 4 carries. As 1 point favorites, look for the Browns to do what Hue Jackson's said he wanted to do for two straight off-seasons... run the ball with Crowell. 
    • He got the 19 touches in Week 1 and couldn't get it going, but I brought this stat up last week, in games where Crowell saw 19 touches in 2016 (4 games) he averaged 127 total yards and scored 4 times. I expect a 20-touch workload for Crowell and at least one opportunity to pound the rock home.

    Sell High Candidates

    Last week I talked about Gurley and Fournette.

    This week we're talking about Gurley again.

    Todd Gurley - RB (LAR)

    • It's all the same reasons as before, sure he looked good in Week 2, but the cake matchups come to and end really soon. Beginning in Week 5, they get Seattle, @JAX, ARZ, @NYG, HOU, @MIN, an easy one vs. NO, @ARZ, PHI then @SEA for first week of fantasy playoffs. You don't want to wait for a dud game to try and sell Gurley. 

    - as for Fournette, last week probably would've been the time to sell as I said, but he's fine going forward as a high-end RB2, with RB1 workload. Chris Ivory did get a surprisingly high number of touches with 9, and a lot of passing down work, but whatever.

    Jarvis Landry - WR (MIA)

    • He's just not a guy I necessarily want on my team. He had the monster PPR day in Week 2, catching 13 passes from Cutler. 
    • We look back at Week 1 though, Bennie Fowler of the Broncos caught 2 touchdowns out of the slot versus the Chargers. They excel on the outside locking down guys with Casey Hayward and Jason Verrett who is likely to be out for more time. 
    • Historically we look back at Cutler and he just doesn't use his slot WRs. The best slot season with Cutler under QB over the last 5 or 6 seasons was Earl Bennett back in 2012 when he caught 29 passes for 375 yards and two tuddys in 12 games. Cutler loves using the two outside weapons like we saw with B-Marsh and Jeffery and I think that's what we're going to see a lot moving forward with Parker and Stills.
    • I will say, Landry gets a ridiculously easy pass schedule over the next few weeks @NYJ, NO, TEN, @ATL and the Jets again, so it might be worth waiting for a couple more good weeks from Landry.

    Buy-Low/R.E.L.A.X. Candidates

    These first three I shouldn't have to explain but I'm getting a lot of questions about them.

    Le'Veon Bell - RB (PIT)

    Michael Thomas - WR (NO)

    A.J. Green - WR (CIN) 

    These next three were all in my trade targets video for weeks 1-4:

    Joe Mixon - RB (CIN)

    • I like Lazor coming in as OC. Wait on Mixon, Week 5 or 6 we should expect more workload his way.

    Isaiah Crowell - RB (CLV)

    Marcus Mariota/Corey Davis/Rishard Matthews - QB/WRs (TEN)

    • Tough 3-game stretch for this passing offense. They should get back on track with MIA, IND, CLV in Weeks 5-7. With Decker struggling, Matthews looks like the solid WR2, and if Davis misses time with the hamstring, even more upside for him.

    Kelvin Benjamin - WR (CAR)

    • Leading the team in tgts, Olsen injury and Cam returning to form. They get good matchups in NO and NE over the next two weeks.

    - Russell Wilson

    • (saw a good stat on RW) has finished as a top-six fantasy passer in 30.5% of his career games, all of which have come in Weeks 3-16. Thomas Rawls (if im carson owner, want to see the healthy time split), Decker (want 1 more game).

    Cut Em Like O.T. Genasis

    1. Paul Perkins - just awful, no o-line, Darkwa should get more work.

    2. Jeremy Hill

    3. Latavius Murray

    4. Eddie Lacy

    5. C.J. Prosise

    6. Rawls if you need to

    7. Andrew Luck if you need to

    8. BAL WRs not named Maclin. Leads WRs with 9 targets, 87 yards and 2 touchdowns. Wallace and Perriman have combined for 11 targets and 20 receiving yards...

    9. Marshall - It's clear the Gmen are barely going to be able to support one fantasy WR in Odell.

    10. John Brown - missing another game in Week 3, would bet he misses around 6 games all together, limited in others.

    5 Story Lines I'm Most Looking Forward To in Week 3

    1. Bengals with new OC Bill Lazer. Does Mixon get uptick in snaps/touches? Is A.J. Green featured, does Dalton look better and is John Ross used?
    2. The 2-0 Detroit Lions and are they legit? They've looked really good against Arizona and NYG, but by the time this season is over these 2 teams might combine for 12 or 13 wins, so it's hard to tell. They'll have a real test in Week 3 vs. Atlanta.
    3. OBJ, what his fantasy outlook is moving forward. Might get fed targets or it might be real bad seeing as there's no blocking for Eli. He played in 34 snaps which was 61% of their plays. Shepard was in for 100% and B-Marsh 86%.
    4. The backfields in the Tennessee/Seattle game.
    5. Washington's offense vs. the Raiders. They haven't lived up to what a lot of people thought they were going to be, but this is a good a week as any to turn it around. They play Oakland at home on SNF with an over/under of 54.

    Streaming Defenses of the Week

    My 3 streamers for Week 2 were Baltimore, Jacksonville and Cincy. Baltimore was the easy chalk play with 17 fantasy points, the other 2 I said I was skeptical about and Jackonsville showed it's true colors.

    1. PHI DEF vs. NYG (46% Owned) - They allowed 12 FP to Dallas in Week 1 and 17 to Detroit on Monday night. NYG terrible o-line has allowed 8 sacks through two games and Eli has thrown an interception in each game. Philly's front seven is among the best in the league, totaling 8 sacks on the season themselves. Look for this mismatch to play itself out as a massacre in Philly on this side of the ball. The Eagles are six point favorites at home, with an over/under on the lower side (42.). They're only owned in 46% of Yahoo leagues, and this is after the waiver wire processed on Wed morning. The Eagles are always an underrated fantasy defense, finishing top-5 in 2016. 
    2. MIA DEF @ NYJ (26% Owned) - I usually don't love picking road defenses, but Miami is a 6-point favorite, an over/under of 42 and... they're playing the Jets. Miami should dominate time of possession by giving Ajayi 25+ carries and I'd be surpised if the Jets scored more than 11 points. The Dolphins D isn't particularly good, but this is a stream vs. the Jets pick if their ever was one.

    If Sam Bradford doesn't play for some reason, TB becomes a great option. And I honestly wouldn't hate either CLV or IND defense in the matchup against each other. I'd probably prefer Cleveland because I think they'll control the clock more with their ground game.

     

    Locks of The Century (#LoTC)

    As far as I'm concerned, any win percentage over 51% is a DUB.

    Record on the Season (3-2)

    Week 1 #LoTCs

    1. NYJ +10 @ BUF = W
    2. ATL vs. CHI under 48.5 = W
    3. TEN -2.5 vs. OAK = L

    Week 2 #LoTCs

    1. NYJ @ OAK over 43.5 = W
    2. LAC -4 vs. MIA = L
    3. MIN @ PIT over 45.5 = N/A (Before Bradford was ruled out)

    Week 3 #LoTCs

    1. LAR @ SF over 39.5
    2. PHI -6 vs. NYG
    3. DAL @ ARZ over 46.5

    League Recaps

    Another 2-2 week, but I got a W in my ETGD league which is fine. I'd rather go 1-3 with a win in that league than 3-1 with an L there, I'm serious.

    BDGE Dad Hat Giveaway

    Highlight the comments.

     



    Nick Ercolano
    Nick Ercolano

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