Week 3 Top DFS Plays & Notable WR vs. CB Matchup Column | 2018 Fantasy Football
Week 3 of the NFL season is here players, meaning we're diving into DFS, DraftKings, Fanduel, sit/starts all that bullshit... so here we are.
Top DraftKings Plays for Week 3
Cam Newton vs. Cin ($6,000)
Coming off of a 335-yard, 3TD 42-rush yard game last week in ATL, I'm not sure why Cam is priced at $6,000, but I like it a lot.
Cam and the Panthers will be at home, against this Cincy pass defense that has allowed over 315 passing yards and multiple TD throws to both Andrew Luck and Joe Flacco. Of course, you have to love Pat Mahomes, but he's $7,000, and I think KC will try to establish the run this week, and I think Cam has the same upside as Mahomes, for $1,000 less.
Matt Ryan vs. NO ($5,700)
Coming off his biggest fantasy day in what seems like two years now, Ryan gets a Saints defense that played well against Tyrod, who's not a pure passer but got torched by Fitzmagic in Week 1. Ryan will look to build on his 272-yard, 4-total-TD game in Week 2 at home, in one of the highest over/under (53) games of the week. I also went back to look at Ryan's stats against the Saints and over the last 5 seasons, in home games against the Saints, Ryan averages over 25 fantasy points per, 325 yards passing and 2 passing TDs.
These NFC South divisional games tend to turn into shootouts, they're always in domes, with a lot of playmakers and haymakers being thrown back and forth.
Blake Bortles vs. TEN ($5,600)
Bortles was one of my top WW pickups this week, thanks to his 377-yard, 4-TD game against the Pats, but gets another plus matchup as he'll take on the Titans at home. As you can see, Bortles, like almost all QBs benefits greatly from playing at home:
It'll be noteworthy whether or not Fournette plays. He returned to practice this week, but it's anyone's guess whether or not he suits up. If he doesn't, I think they lean more on Bortles like they did in Week 2. Take a look at these splits too, from Bortles, with and without Fournette since he entered the league, the right side are the four games without Fournette:
If Fournette does play, I'd probably shy away from Bortles, just a word of caution.
This Tennessee defenses has given up multiple TD passes in back-to-back games too, so.
~~ The Gabagool ($7,000-$9,000) ~~
Alvin Kamara @ ATL ($9,500)
For the same reason I told you that you had to play C-Mac last week, Kamara gets the nod once again, even as DraftKings' most expensive player. The Falcons are a black hole for running back receptions. McCaffrey caught 14-of-15 targets last week for over 100 yards, I would expect similar usage, numbers from Kamara in Week 3 as the Atlanta defense allows all the underneath throws that one offense can handle.
I'm not sure there's another RB prices above $7,000 that I absolutely love this week. Dalvin Cook plays BUF, it's a good matchup, but I doubt they push him once they get up big. David Johnson, well, is DJ right now. Melvin gets the Rams, on the road. Hard pass. I like Saquon Barkley, but not too much, on the road at Houston who just let up a single catch to Dion Lewis last week for 1 yard.
I don't hate C-Mac, but he won't see as much passing usage as he did last week, now that he's playing Cincinatti, not Atlanta.
If I had to choose one more, it'd be Zeke against this Seattle defense. Seattle is a bad team, but their run defense isn't horrendous, and a Dallas team on the road makes me nervous. I do like his increased usage in the passing game though. He has 10 targets and 8 catches through two games. He's done almost nothing with it, turning those 8 catches in 26 yards, but it's encouraging nonetheless.
Of course, there's Gurley, but if I had to take one between GUrley and Kamara, it's Kamara, and I'm not paying up for both guys.
~~ Extra Medium ($5,000-$6,999) ~~
Tevin Coleman vs. NO ($6,400)
Last week with Freeman out, Coleman rushed for 107 yards on 16 carries (6.7 ypc), catching all four of his targets for 18 yards. With Freeman expected to be out for at least the next week or two, Coleman will be in line for another 20+ touch workload, involved in both the ground and passing game. Like I mentioned, I think a lot of point are going to be scored in this one, Coleman will be involved regardless of the game script. NO's FO's DVOA against running backs as pass catchers ranks 26th in the NFL. I'm looking for a big fanatsy game out of Coleman. 100+ total yards and a TD this week.
Kareem Hunt vs. SF ($6,000)
I think we're ready for that Kareem Hunt breakout game. After winning the NFL rushing title in 2017, Hunt has just 124 rushings yards with a 3.6 ypc to his name through two weeks. The more concerning issue is that he has just a single target. He's not losing targets to someone else, the Chiefs just aren't throwing to their backs. Through two weeks, only 9% of their total targets have gone to the RB position. That's dead last in the NFL. The big play regression, these 40+ yard TDs will have to slow down at some point, and they will start getting GL and RZ looks to Hunt.
In week 3, Patrick City Chiefs take on SF at home. Mahomes will get his, shit everyone will get theirs. The over/under is at 56.5, the highest of this week and of the 2018 season so far, and tbh I don't remember an ov/un being higher all of 2017 - Im probably wrong on that but nothing sticks out. So yeah, everyone is going to eat, and that includes Kareem Hunt. I think Hunt will do it via the air. In Week 1, SF gave up 6 receptions to Dalvin Cook, before allowing a combined 14 catches to Theo Riddick and Kerryon Johnson in Week 2.
This is the week Hunt owners finally feel okay about taking him super early, which you shouldn't have done in the first place.
~~ The Profit Clurb (Under $5,000) ~~
Dion Lewis @ JAX ($4,500)
It's never fun playing guys against Jacksonville, but I really like Lewis in this one. Lewis is clearly the back to own in Tennessee in PPR formats and probably in any format at this point. Through two games, Lewis has out-snapped Derrick Henry 82-46 and out-touched him 32-19. The great part about Lewis is that through two games, we've seen the Titans in both good and bad game scripts, and Lewis has seen 15 touches minimum in both - so I think that's the weekly floor we're looking at for him. The Titans got off to a 14-0 lead quickly against Houston in Week 2 which led to an 18-carry game for Henry. That shouldn't be the case in Week 3 as they travel to JAX - the lines for this game aren't up yet dude to Mariota's uncertain status, but I'm sure they'll be touchdown favorites if not more. Look for the Titans to abandon the run and Henry and his 3.1 YPC. James White just caught 7 passes for 73 yards against this Jax defense last week, so as Lewis normally does, he'll manufacture production through the air.
Corey Clement vs. IND ($4,300)
Ajayi left Sunday's game in the first half with a back injury before returning in the second half, but it was Clement that shined brightest in their backfield, taking advantage of both Ajayi and Sproles being sidelined. Clement turned six carries into 30 yards and a score, while catching 5-of-6 targets for 55 yards. With Ajayi healthy, he'll fall back to RB2 duties, but if Sproles is out again, which I think he will be, Clement should see heavy usage in the passing game.
~~ The Gabagool ($7,000-$9,000) ~~
Tyreek Hill vs. SF ($8,500)
You'd be a fool to fade Hill in Week 3 - in a game that hosts the highest over/under of the yong NFL season (55.5). Hill had a quiet day in Week 2, relatively speaking compared to Week 1, catching just 5 passes for 90 yards and a score. There's just not much I need to say here. Don't fade Hill this week.
Adam Thielen vs. BUF ($7,600)
So, while Thielen & Diggs are both inside my top-10 WR Rankings this week, one of them will have to line up across Tre-Davious White, the Bills standout 2nd year CB. White had a tremendous rookie season, and is currently the 4th highest graded CB per PFF in the NFL - only behind Casey Hayward, Jalen Ramsey & William Jackson. So, that should leave Thielen open all day and we've already seen the connection here between him and Cousins. It's possible that this game is out of hand by the 3rd quarter, but it wouldn't shock me to see a 6-100+ line by Thielen by halftime.
~~ Extra Medium ($5,000-$6,999) ~~
Emmanuel Sanders @ BAL ($6,400)
Like I talked about in my Q&A video on Thursday, I love me some Manny Sanders again this week. Two big weeks, back-to-back now, he's running 71% of snaps from the slot and will get a juicy matchup against the Ravens slot CV Tavon Young while their stud shadow CB, Brandon Carr will matchup on the outside against DT and Courtland Sutton. Last week, A.J. Green was shut down by Carr on the outside, allowing just one catch on three targets for 18 yards BUT when Green moved to the slot, that's when he scored all three of his TDs. Among all NFL CBs through two weeks, Tavon Young has allowed the 2nd most FPs/RC and is bottom 10 in both catch rate (70%) and yards/rc. As 5 points dogs in this one, look for more high-volume passing numbers from Keenum, who has 74 pass attempts through two games. If you pace that out to 15 games, which he played in last szn for the Vikes, we're looking at 555 pass attempts, which would be 75 more passes in 2018.
Keelan Cole vs. TEN ($5,600)
Cole exploded on Sunday for a 7-116-1 line, making incredible catch after catch, emerging as the true WR1 here in Jacksonville. Now, he gets a matchup with an ex-Patriot that's been absolutely crushed so far this year, Malcolm Butler:
His 2018 has not gone according to plan, and Cole is next in line to further ruin those plans.
~~ The Profit Clurb (Under $5,000) ~~
I've got tbh here guys I don't like many WRs this week under $5,000 - DK has done a good job aggressively pricing the right guys. I don't want to tell you guys just for the sake of doing so if I don't think they're in for a big game. If you want to fade Keelan Cole at $5,600 and hedge with Dede Westbrook ($4,600), maybe a Bortles Dede stack, I don't hate that.
George Kittle @ KC ($4,500)
I don't want to say I was fading Kittle last week, but a lot of people got excited for him, I didn't play him in any of my DFS games and it was because although Detroit's defense has looked miserable this year, Quandre Diggs is pretty good and he covers TEs pretty often for them, so it was a tough matchup for Kittle. But after his one-game hiatus, he'll be ready to right the ship in their shootout at KC. The Chiefs are coming off a game where they just allowed 8 catches for 154 yards and a touchdown to Jesse James and Vance McDonald and have allowed the 3rd most FPs to the TE position this year.
Of course, if you want to pay up Kelce is a great play. A stack of Mahomes and either Hill or Kelce seems like a good idea right now. Kelce is $6,700 and Ertz is $6,800. Although Indy has been surprisingly okay against TEs this year - they haven't let up more than 6.5 FPs to either TE they've faced in Tyler Eifert and Jordan Reed - the glass brothers.
Minnesota vs. BUF ($4,300)
I don't think you can afford not to play Minnesota. They are at home, as 16.5 point favorites. This is gonna be a bloodbath. Minnesota is tied for the 4th most interceptions, sacks, have forced the second most fumbles, The over/under is 41, meaning Vegas projects this Bills team who will be without, or with a limited Shady to score 12 points in this one. The Vikings have PFF's highest-graded team for run defense so far and the 3rd highest grade for pass rush.
There are a couple of other defenses that you could consider:
- TEN @ JAX if Gabbert plays ($4,000)
- CHI @ ARZ - this team if fucking miserable ($3,500)
- I don't hate IND @ PHI ($3,000) - Luck has been a turnover machine so far.
So far, only two teams have used shadow coverage in both weeks: The Ravens with Brandon Carr and the Patriots with Stephon Gilmore. They also used it with McCourty & Jonathan Jones last week. I'm assuming they'll do the same in Detroit with the big 3 WRs there - although their shadows haven't worked that great.
- Carolina had James Bradberry shadow Julio last week - I'm assuming they'll do the same with A.J. Green in Week 3.
- Xavier Rhodes will likely shadow Kelvin Benjamin for any of you sick fucks that planned on playing him for whatever reason.
- There's also a good chance Marshon Lattimore shadows Julio - they did some of it last year, but his two meetings with them went 5-98 and 7-149 - so be not afraid yong gawds.
Other Notable WR/CB Matchups
Larry Fitzgerald vs. Fabian Moreau (WAS)
Cooper Kupp vs. Leon Hall (OAK)