by Nick Ercolano
September 18, 2017
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Just want to say a few things before we kick this off. Everyone needs to relax. It's Week 1. 80% of the key players shit the bed this week. Most people's teams stunk, outside of those that had a Chiefs stack. Here are a few stats that might help you sleep a little bit better:
It was just an ugly week all around.
Also want to say, Wednesday morning shouldn't just be for checking who you won on waivers.. you HAVE to check who your league mates dropped. Examples of guys dropped in just my 4 leagues: Eric Ebron (in a 14-teamer), Rishard Matthews, Eric Decker, Frank Gore, ARZ D who struggled vs. DET but gets INDY in Week 2.
Anyways: We power forward homies and homettes.
David Johnson - RB (ARZ)
Allen Robinson - WR (JAX)
Danny Woodhead - RB (BAL)
Kevin White - WR (CHI)
Sebastian Janikowski - K (OAK)
Larry Fitzgerald - 83.8 (ARZ) vs. Nate Hairston 49.4 (IND)
Marvin Jones Jr. (DET) vs. Janoris Jenkins (NYG)
Devante Parker (MIA) vs. Casey Hayward (LAC)
T.Y. Hilton (IND) vs. Patrick Peterson (ARZ)
Tyreek Hill (KC) vs. Jalen Mills (PHI)
Pierre Garcon (SF) vs. Shaquill Griffin (SEA)
New York Jets
1. Ty Montgomery - RB (GB)
- Is the clear bell-cow, handled 85% of GBs snaps at RB, would of been above 90 had he not left for a couple of plays with a minor bang up. He gets Atlanta in Week 2, who I know from watching their games, are just awful at covering pass-catching running backs. Forget rushing yards, Ty Mont will probably go for 60 through the air. It's not just historical but look what Tarik Cohen did to them in Week 1. The game has a point total of 53.5 according to Vegas, 2nd highest only to NE and NO, expect a lot of points here.
2. Mike Gillislee & James White - RBs (NE)
- I'd gladly start both guys, and I actually am in my Etown Get Down League. They're headed to play in the dome versus New Orleans in a game with a 56 point over/under, as touchdown favorites. They're both the clear favorite for their role in this backfield, Gillislee as the early-down runner, short yardage and goal-line, White as the pass-catcher which is so valuable in this offense who is missing Julian Edelman and now likely Danny Amendola. I like both of them to find pay-dirt in Week 2.
3. Bilal Powell - RB (NYJ)
- On the road @ Oakland, the Jets are 14 point underdogs. This is where Powell will shine and finish with 7-8 catches and put up a monster PPR day for you. Forte out-snapped Powell in Week 1, but Powell had more touches and targets. Even in a time split, Powell is much more suited as the pass-catching back. Last year, in games where the Jets lost by at least 14 points (6 games), Powell averaged just under 5 catches, and 2 of those were in the beginning of the season when Forte dominated touches. He ranked 4th in the NFL last season in both running back targets and receptions.
4. Eric Ebron - TE (DET)
- Did barely anything in Week 1, catching 2-of-3 for nine yards, but he saw a lot of Tyrann Mathieu coverage and he's slowly coming back from that offseason hamstring injury. In Week 2 he gets a New York Giants defense that's really bad against TEs, they let Jason Witten throw up a 7-59-1 spot on them. Look for Ebron to post similar stats on MNF.
Todd Gurley - RB (LAR)
Leonard Fournette - RB (JAX)
Guys not to worry about, it's 1 game people.
Le'Veon Bell - RB (PIT)
Just stop. Try offering the Bell owner in your league Kareem Hunt or Fournette or something.
Russell Wilson - QB (SEA)
I'll admit, I'm a little more nervous following Week 1 and seeing just how bad their offensive line is, but I have faith in RW and Pete Carroll to turn it around and make it work just as they have over the previous 5 seasons. Also credit GB defense, they were killed with injuries early on last year which made them look awful, but they're back at full strength and looked much better on Sunday. Wilson's played at Lambeau 3 times in his career, all from 2015 or later, these are his splits: Better days are ahead, especially at home.
Tom Brady - QB (NE)
All Elite TEs
T'was a bad Week 1 for highly-drafted TEs. Move on.
Alshon Jeffery - WR (PHI)
He's not someone I targeted in drafts, but if you did, I wouldn't worry just yet. Him and elite CB Josh Norman faced off on Sunday so Wentz had to look elsewhere, like Agholor and Zach Ertz. The 7 targets is still promising despite being blanketed by Norman. Jeffery is a rule-of-3 guy for me. Give it 3 weeks before you start to panic.
The video I made a few weeks ago still holds exactly as I saw it. Weak game from Dez. Weak game from Crowell, but dominated RB snaps (76%) and touches 19, the offense will improve and so will his numbers. Crowell only had 19 touches four times all of 2016 and averaged 127 total yards in those games and scored 4 times in those 4 games. (Show Game Pass footage of Lamar Miller - 20:21 & 26:13) Mariota, as expected had a good Week 1 game against a bad Oakland defense, but gets 3 tough passing matchups over as many games @JAX, SEA and @HOU. Expect him to struggle and make a splash again in Week 5. This goes for all these TEN weapons.
1. Darren McFadden - Zeke is playing the whole year.
2. Eddie Lacy - goes without saying.
3. Kenny Britt - looks like Coleman is the guy to own here after catching 5-of-6 targets for 53 yards and a tuddy, at least for now. Not necessarily excited about him, but no way CLV can give 2 usable fantasy WRs.
4. Robert Turbin - Team is just awful, Mack out-touched him.
5. Carson Palmer - After their game @ IND. Without David Johnson this team is going to be garbage.
6. Zay Jones - In anything other than full PPR.
7. Latavius Murray - Was in on 5% of snaps while Cook ran away with the game.
8. Either OAK backup RB outside of 12+ team leagues.
Baltimore - vs. CLE (Owned in 50% of Yahoo Leagues)
After a dominating 20-0 win over division rival Cincinnati Bengals, the Ravens will look to move to 2-0 against another divisional opponent when they take on the Browns at home. This works from both ways in that Baltimore is a very good defense and Cleveland is a very bad offense. The Ravens are coming off a 25-fantasy point performance that included, obviously a shut out, 5 sacks, 4 interceptions and a fumble recovery. The Browns on the other hand, let up 7 sacks, an interception and a fumble to Pittsburgh in Week 1. The Ravens are 7.5 point favorites in a game with the 2nd lowest over/under of all games in Week 2 (40). Deshone Kizer is still very much a rookie and will have his hands full on the road against Baltimore.
Jacksonville - vs. TEN (Owned in 37% of Yahoo Leagues)
I'll be honest, I'm still very much skeptical of the Jaguars as an elite defense, but it's hard to argue against 10 sacks, an interception, 3 fumble recoveries a touchdown and allowing 7 points. How can I possible be skeptical? Well, this was against the Houston Texans and Tom Savage, who sport one of the worst offensive lines in football, and, well, Tom Savage as their quarterback. They'll have a tougher match in Week 2 going against Marcus Mariota and the Titans, who have an elite front 5 blocking for the former Oregon Duck. Jacksonville will be on a defensive high after their Week 1 game. This game has a sub-par over/under total of 43.5. It'll be an interesting matchup for sure.
Cincinnati Bengals - vs. HOU (Owned in 24% of Yahoo Leagues)
I'm in now way advocating the Bengals defense as a good defense, but you could find much worse in Week 2. But, the Bengals play in 36 hours and just barely announced their starting QB in Deshaun Watson. Cincy is a 5-point favorite in the lowest Vegas point total for the week (38).
Record on the Season (2-1)
Week 1 #LoTCs
Week 2 #LoTCS
I'm in 4 $ leagues. One is the Etown Get Down, I'm sure a lot of you watched the live draft, I lost that one... I didn't have OBJ for Week 1, I had Woodhead and Allen Robinson in my starting lineup, Dez played the GMEN, so yeah. I was able to grab Buck Allen & Golladay off waivers though. The second league is my college friends, I won that. Third is the Fantasy Jocks office league, I wont that. 4th is the subscriber league, listen to this. I lost by 0.3 points, I accidentally left OBJ in at flex AND I had Dalton starting at QB who got me -3 points!!!!!
Giving away two BDGE Dad Hats. What you have to do is subscribe on YouTube, give this video the thumbs up, go follow me on Twitter @BDGEatFantasy. Comment on the video the craziest fantasy story from Week 1, could be a W, an L, I don't care just something crazy from one of your matchups.
by Noah Pires
November 15, 2018
by Nick Ercolano
November 15, 2018
by Noah Pires
November 14, 2018