by Nick Ercolano
September 18, 2020
- Geno Atkins and Mike Daniels out for CIN: expect CLV offense to utilize Chubb heavily and attack Cincy's front 7.
- Godwin enters concussion protocol on Wednesday, very unlikely he plays. Arians says "going to be very cautious."
- Miles Sanders practicing in full - hallemflujah.. but listen I still think there's a chance he doesn't get his full slate of snaps in this one. I have him ranked around RB17 I want to say, he's not a must-start for me, but I'm throwing him in my lineup bc how tf can u not!!!!!
Jonathan Taylor vs. MIN
Should come as a rather obvious one, but I'm still getting flex questions about him. Taylor's in your lineup, every week, from here on out.
Minnesota's defense looked miserable last week against GB.
We talk a lot about Rivers throwing to his RBs, but if you go back and watch the game, a lot of them weren't check downs - they have like 92 screens in their playbook so the passing work to these RBs is going to continue to come.
Hines is a solid flex play too, but don't expect him to be getting GL carries moving forward and converting 16 yard runs into TDs, etc.
Ronald Jones vs. CAR
My Rank: RB18 vs. ECR RB23 (+5)
Ronald Jones looked damn good in week 1 against a stout New Orleans defense.
- Rushed 17 times for 66 yards and caught two passes for 16 yards
- He had 74% of the opportunities in this backfield.
- This Carolina rush defense just got absolutely fathered by Josh Jacobs and the Raiders. They had the single lowest graded run-defense per PFF in Week 1 and that should come as no surprise.
- To be honest I don't think Fournette is the worst play either, but clearly it's RoJo's spot on the throne fo the time being.
Benny Snell vs. DEN
My Rank: RB22 vs. ECR RB39 (+17)
Keenan Allen vs. KC
My Rank: WR10 vs. ECR WR22 (+12)
Of course, things are different in LA right now with Tyrod there. The offense doesn't look good, but this is a pure volume play. The game script was terrible for the pass game last week, they actually won, Tyrod threw the ball just 30 times and Keenan saw 8 of those.
Like just look at Rivers' passing numbers over the last two years since Mahomes has been their QB.
32.5 pass attempts against the other 31 teams, nearly 47 vs. KC.
Obviously game one was not what you wanted to see from this offense, but I think we're going to get a good Keenan game here and then you can probably sell him.
Allen Lazard vs. DET
My Rank: WR32 vs. ECR WR49 (+17)
So, I tweeted this out two days ago I believe. Their top slot CB Justin Coleman is on the I.R., Trufant hasn't participated in practice yet this week (hammy) so he's doubtful. Their #3 overall pick Jeff Okudah is back at practice so I do expect him to suit up, but I'd be surprised if they don't try to drape Davante Adams with him, which is tbh indifferent towards Adams the goat, but good news for Lazard.
Scotty Miller vs. CAR
My Rank: WR36 vs. ECR WR54
If Godwin is out this opens up a ton of opportunity for what we already saw last week.
Brady talked up Scotty boy all offseason and it carried over into Week 1. Miller was second on the team only Godwin in targets (6), receptions (5), yards (73) and had the longest play of the day (37 yards).
Evans seemed to clearly be less than 100% on Sunday, but another week will get him there, but cleary Miller is going to be a big piece of this offense against a terrible pass defense in Carolina.
If you're unfamiliar with Scotty, he's a baller:
Godwin ran just 7 fewer routes than Godwin and Evans last week, and what was most surprising was his route placement. Miller ran primarily on the outside -- 86% outside. Godwin was in the slot/inline on 67% of his snaps.
This could actually be big for O.J. Howard who had a nice day last week and should occupy some of those slot routes if Godwin is out.
D.K. Metcalf vs. NE
- Was shadowed three times last year
vs. Pat Pete: saw 1 target, 0 catches
vs. James Bradberry: saw 3 targets, 1 catch for 17 yards
vs. Jalen Ramsey: 5-69-0
The Pats are typically a man/shadow team. Metcalf ain't out-bodying Stephon GIlmore if he gets him. Metcalf is still not a very nuanced WR for as fun as he is.
compared to a Tyler Lockett:
I just don't think they're going to 1. let up big plays - they minimize those type of plays as a defense and that's where Metcalf does his damage.
You gotta love that they're finally letting Rus earn his paycheck, but I don't for a second trust that they're going to let that be the game plan here. He also threw the ball 35 times, no need to act like they were the Falcons in this one.
Ryan Tannehill vs. JAX
My Rank: QB13 vs. ECR QB19
I know the Titans are going to want to use Derrick Henry more than Animal uses his bowl, but that's fine. They did last year, when Tannehill was the starter - threw up 32 fantasy points against Jacksonville.
Surprisingly, last week TEN ranked 6th in pace of play, while feeding henry 31 totes. I love streaming QBs at home - it's not just a Big Ben or Brees thing, every QB plays better at home. And Tanny was fine last week - 19.4 fantasy points.
Jared Cook @ LV
- Michael Thomas is out - where are the targets going? Cook and Kamara.
- A 23.3% target share last week --- more impressively... he had the single highest air yard share among any TE in week 1 - 43.6% of his team's air yards.
- 5-for-80 last week. Now dating, back 11 regular szn games, Cook has double-digit FPs (half ppr) in 10-of-11 games.
Logan Thomas vs. ARZ
Was hype all summer and week 1 warranted it
- ARZ stinks against TE
+ they ran 82 plays on sunday - 5th fastest pace in the NFL - going to force Washington to play high snaps too.
October 22, 2020
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I have to go with: inaction. New entrepreneurs tend to overthink things that don’t really matter (logo, copy, etc.), but instead of validating their idea, they get lost in the weeds."
The advice is simple – just do it. Do a minimum version, talk to some friends, and see if they would be interested in it. If so, make a quick version, and go from there."
Ultimately, your need to become your startup’s best sales person and best marketer before hiring."
And remember, the fact that you can recite all the business slang and industry jargon that’s pervasive within your niche, doesn’t automatically make you a good salesperson. Connect with your target customers and learn how to truly help them.
We have an exciting tradition at Startup Socials. Every Friday we meet with entrepreneurs one-on-one and help them solve startup related challenges
One of the most costly and painful mistakes that I see over and over again is hiring in marketing and sales too early. Things tend to go VERY wrong when a founder brings on board a senior sales or marketing person who is lacking entrepreneurial spirit and/or experience working in startups. Instead of hiring full-time, founders should seek out and consult with experienced marketers and sales veterans who work with startups on a daily basis for a fixed fee or company stock based on specific goals."
Avoid the common mistake of aiming to be the next Facebook. Achieve product-market fit by focusing on building one core feature better than the competition and make sure that feature solves a big pain point for your audience. Don’t get lost in creating a bunch of features off-the-bat."
Keep your first product extremely barebones. Get clear product validation from your target customer before you spend any time or money building a Minimum Viable Product (MVP). Start small. Invest more resources in product development as you generate enough operating income to cover your ongoing research and development expenses. Hold off on executing your product roadmap before you have enough consistent sales revenue to support that vision."
In other words, too often first-timers build a product behind closed doors and don’t get the feedback necessary to ensure they get buy in for their idea. As a result, they don’t reach product-market fit and end up building a product that fails or succeeds by mere chance, not by calculated steps."
I recommend that first-time entrepreneurs take this as a real wake up call to avoid making excuses for not getting meaningful product validation before spending resources on development. You need at least 95% confidence that the thing you’re working on will be predisposed to some initial success. There are too many other factors out there working against you when you’re first starting out and are tight on resources that make the road of entrepreneurship hard enough as-is. Don’t make it more difficult for yourself by building a bunch of features no one really wants to pay for."
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by Nick Ercolano
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