by Noah Pires
September 12, 2019
I told y'all to not let me get hot, and guess what, I'm hot. I honestly can't be told shit right now. To say I'm feeling myself would be a complete understatement. Yes, it was week one, but this high I'm on may last for four more months and I don't expect it to end any time soon.
Current Record: 10-6-0
Superlock Pick: 0-1
Survivor Pick: 0-1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers (-6.5)
Pick: Bucs (+6.5)
I see what the issue is here. Jameis looked AWFUL. Aye, double u, eff, you, el. He's on a short week after being abused by the 9ers, so it seems like the easy play is Carolina. Wrong. Jameis is basically Ryan Fitzpatrick Jr., and he's starting to feel the heat of unemployment, which means it's time to blow up. The Panthers' defense isn't really something to be afraid of, and Cam didn't look all too impressive last week, either. Sure, the Panthers are playing at home again, but it's a divisional game, so I doubt it's the blowout that the line suggests. I have literally zero confidence in this pick, which actually, makes this a very smart bet if you're tailing me.
Dallas Cowboys (-4.5) @ Washington Redskins
Pick: Cowboys (-4.5)
????? How is the spread 4.5???? Yeah the Skins looked good for a half of football, but it was mostly due to a few big plays that the Eagles' secondary couldn't stop, an issue the Cowmen won't have. On top of this, Dallas' offense looked legitimately awesome, and showed they don't give a fuck about NFC (l)East opponents. They have super bowl aspirations, and Washington shouldn't even be a hurdle in that march. I think if the spread was two million I'd still take the boys. This is the lock of the week, year, century, you name it. There is NO CHANCE this doesn't hit (then again look at my superlock record).
Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans (-3.5)
Pick: Colts (+3.5)
The Titans blew the doors off the Browns, but they're also the Browns. They forced at least 27 turnovers, something I don't expect in this spot, mostly because of Indy's elite offensive line. Brissett also showed he's a little more than just a backup, almost leading the Colts to a comeback win against the Chargers. Indianapolis' defense did look a bit suspect, but the Chargers are a far more dynamic/solidified offense than the Titans, so even if Derrick Henry breaks off a long jog, it's not like they'll have blowout potential where this game gets out of hand early, especially after emptying their gas tank last week. I'm not sure if this is based in fact or not, but divisional games always seem to be played closely, and because I think Indy is just the overall better team, I'll take them on the road. I mean, just ask yourself, what would this spread have been if Tennessee won 23-13 last week? I'd assume it would be closer to half a point than four points, so we're fading and finessing the public every chance we get and thus, hopping on the Colts like Bill Shoemaker.
Seattle Seahawks @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)
Pick: Steelers (-3.5)
Neither one of these teams looked particularly good, but the Seahawks looked bad against the Bengals whereas Pittsburgh looked poor against the Pats. Sure, the Steelers were absolutely annihilated, but it was on the road against a pretty good coach (just kidding, chill out Pats fans), and Big Ben was coming off a four month bender, evident by his face that resembled a pit bull that had just stuck its head in a bee hive.
Now, at home, he has something to prove after being embarrassed by a man who hasn't eaten any item in Big Ben's diet for the past 27 years. The Seahawks defense also had issues stopping John Ross, whose top speed in mph is a larger number than his career reception total. James Washington is somehow fast and always open down field, so I'd expect Ben to take some shots and make Seattle play from behind, which isn't ideal for an offense that wants to run every play.
Buffalo Bills (-1.5) @ New York Giants
Pick: Bills (-1.5)
Hi Nick. Eli is good :-). All joking aside, I have no clue what to think of this game. The o/u is currently set at 43.5, so I would hammer that under. I wouldn't be surprised if this one ends like 13-10 in favor of Buffalo. It certainly won't be pretty. The Bills pressured Sam Darnold on almost every drop back last week, which won't be a major issue for the G-Men as they rely heavily on the short/intermediate game, but it's certainly something to keep in mind. Along with their defense, Josh Allen didn't look completely awful, and it'll only take one or two deep balls to John Brown to open this game up and put it out of reach for NY. Another sneaky point is that the Bills won't have to travel for this one despite it being an away game since they were playing at MetLife last week. It's basically their home now, so give me Buffalo.
New England Patriots (-18.5) @ Miami Dolphins
Pick: Dolphins (+18.5)
The Pats should be the pick here. The spread is so large and the narrative of the Dolphins always pulling out a win at home against New England is the perfect storm (no pun intended, but intended) working against the Dolphins here. They just lost by one thousand points to Lamar Jackson who looked like he was playing catch with the endzone, and with Brady being the slightly better QB, I'd expect a similarly dominant game. The Pats did lose to the Lions in week three last year though, which I think is a long con by Belichick. He's dispersing his understudies around the league, letting them win head to head, allowing them to keep their jobs, knowing good and well that if the game actually mattered, he'd rip them apart. The same may be in play here. Brian Flores is on the hot seat after just one week, and I'd bet that Good 'Ol Billy Boy is willing to play this one close, sniff out any tricks BF may have, and pull away when it matters late in the game.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans (-8.5)
Pick: Texans (-8.5)
Deshaun Watson is incredible, his offensive line is not. Against the Jaguars, there will be pressure all day, which I'm not sure will be a completely terrible thing. With the speed the Texans' possess on offense in Will Fuller, Kenny Stills, and Duke Johnson, along with the best receiver in football DeAndre Hopkins, having Deshaun Watson improvise outside of the pocket could cause havoc against a secondary that had no answers for the Chiefs. As for the Jags' offense, their team abbreviation fits the description of all their weapons perfectly: JAG. They have a ton of speed and length, but they are also going to need to rely on a rookie QB (who did look good) to keep up with an offense led by a top five talent in the NFL. There may be a few splash plays for Jacksonville, but at home, coming off a terrible loss after a valiant effort, I'm not sure the Texans keep this close.
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers (-2.5)
Pick: Packers (-2.5)
The Vikings started the season extremely hot, but also did so against a terrible defense and an offense that would make UConn look like the '07 Patriots. I think they're a good team, sure, but Rodgers, at home (career home record of 64-17-1), coming off a long week, could tear apart any opposition. Along with ARod, the Packers' defense looks legit good, which will be a major flip from last week where the Vikings faced the Falcons' abysmal D. Minnesota also threw the ball just 10 times last week, so if they do need to play from behind, they'll have to shy away from their preferred offensive scheme. I see this game being close, but at home, the Packers should pull this one out by at least a field goal.
Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) @ Detroit Lions
Pick: Chargers (-2.5)
This is disrespectful. Both teams went to OT, but one won against the Colts, and the other tied with the Cardinals. I don't care if the Lions are at home, there's no shot this game is close. The only thing that worries me is that Detroit loves to run and the Charger's front line isn't even serviceable in stopping that aspect of the game. The good thing is half of those runs will be from C.J. Anderson, which defaults to about 2.5 YPC. As for the Chargers' offense, they simply have too many weapons for even the Lions (written before Henry and Williams were declared out, but the point stills stands, Chargers' O > Lions' O), who looked pretty good for 3.5 quarters, to stop them. The spread should be closer to 6.5 than even, and because I don't think it's close, this is my EXCLUSIVE SECOND SUPERLOCK. I'm going to hate myself when I curse the Chargers this week (guess what buddy, already happened [rip Hunter]).
San Francisco 49ers @ Cincinnati Bengals (-0.5)
Pick: 49ers (+0.5)
This will be one of those games where every time a ball is thrown, you'll fully be expecting an interception. I'm not typically a fan of picking against a home team when both squads stink, but I just don't see a scenario where the Bengals win this game. They benefit from poor tackling and terrible instincts by the Seahawks secondary, leading to two scores, which isn't something that should be relied on week after week. The 9ers defense actually looked solid, and with their defensive front, should be able to gold rush the sorry excuse of an offensive line the Bengals have to trot out there. On top of this, I'll take Shanahan over former president Zac Taylor, and there's no shot Dalton doesn't stop thinking about how much better of a QB he'd be, or how much more money he'd be getting paid, if he looked like Jimmy G. You have to have a short memory to succeed in sports, and this is a thought that could haunt him for years, so give me San Fran in this spot.
Arizona Cardinals @ Baltimore Ravens (-13.5)
Pick: Cardinals (+13.5)
The Ravens beat the hell out of the Dolphins, but they're the Dolphins. The Cardinals have an equally unimpressive defense, but they won't roll over like Miami did. They finally unveiled their offense after about 19 quarters of pure vanilla, but I'm not sure if their success was a product of Matt Patricia being a complete asshole or Kliff finally realizing he couldn't win games as a Mike McCoy clone. Either way, their pace of play should work to tire out the Ravens defensively, and if they do manage to put up a few scores, I'm not sure I have the confidence in the Ravens in back to back weeks to put up a 50 spot. If they do threaten the Ravens, I could see them just reverting to a run heavy approach to keep the ball out of Kyler's tiny, Uncle Jack (bird law savant) like, hands, which isn't a recipe for winning by two or more tugs.
Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5) @ Oakland Raiders
Pick: Raiders (+7.5)
This is so dumb. The Chiefs are a wagon and should have no problem steamrolling the Raiders, but I just don't know. There's something sneaky about Oakland. They're at home for the second game in a row, which certainly helps coming off a shorter week, and they seemed to move the ball very well against one of the league's better pass rushes. I'm in no way saying they come out of this with a W, but keeping it within a score doesn't seem too unreasonable. I mean, they have arguably the best receiver in football on the outside, along with the best tight end, and a top two runningback, so their offense isn't complete garbage, and the Chiefs' defense isn't necessarily something to be afraid of. Also, Patrick Mahomes is starting to get cocky, attempting no look passes when he had Kelce wide open. Pretty bold for a guy who puts ketchup on mac n cheese. If his eyes lock onto the black hole, there are no promises of him ever looking a receiver in the eyes again. On top of this, Jon Gruden is a psychopath, and I like that...maybe too much.
New Orleans Saints @ Los Angeles Rams (-2.5)
Pick: Saints (+2.5)
One word: revenge game. The Saints just ripped every Texans fan's heart out last week, and now they're looking for blood. The Rams didn't look all too impressive against the Panthers, and with the Saints channeling their inner Gregg Williams and going for straight kneecaps, I don't think anyone is safe. Todd Gurley's career may end on Sunday. The Saints should be 45 point favorites, and because of that, are my survivor pick this week. Probably not smart, but I don't peg myself as a smart guy, so it works out perfectly. For real, though, I don't care that the Saints are on the road coming off a short week, Goff is a fraud and Brees will make sure we recognize that.
Chicago Bears (-1.5) @ Denver Broncos
Pick: Broncos (+1.5)
The Bears are coming off a long week, but Trubisky looked terrible, so I'm not sure that extra time off does anything but accumulate more rust, and since Gale Sayers' jersey is retired, they won't have any WD-40 available. As for the Broncos, Joe Flacco is also wildly shitty and coming off a game where they got killed, but the last time we saw a white bronco escaping a (alleged) murder scene, it ended up in their favor. Both defenses are decent, both offenses are unimpressive, and if my math checks out, only one team is at home. Give me the home dogs in a spot where I don't think the game total doesn't top 30.
Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5) @ Atlanta Falcons
Pick: Eagles (-1.5)
Both of these squads started slowly, but the Eagles actually came back and pulled out a W. Ryan foolishly took lessons from Phil Rivers and didn't pull out anything, and the offense as a whole looked abysmal. Their offensive line is atrocious, and the strongest part of Philly's defense is their front seven. If, and when, they put pressure on Ryan, we could see another week where Matt gets a taste of his own medicine and gets iced, and I'm not worried about Wentz and Eagles' offense being able to hang a crooked number. Even on the road, I'll roll with the Iggles.
Cleveland Browns (-2.5) @ New York Jets
Pick: Browns (-2.5)
The Jets blew a 16 point lead and the Browns stunk it up against the Titans. This game isn't as interesting as we may have hoped it would be heading into the year, but I'm still confident that Cleveland's team as a whole is much more well-rounded than the Jets and will have no issue handling them. My only sneaky concern is the kicking game, as the Jets are on their fourth kicker in the last few months, and the Browns have a rookie that already botched an extra point. With the spread being what it is, I could easily see this game come down to a FG, and if that's the case, I have zero confidence in whichever side is kicking. With my luck, this game will be a tie with five seconds left, Seribert attempts a 37 yarder and pulls it wide left, they go into OT, and the Jets score on the first drive. The chances of that happening are at least 80%, so again, this isn't a pick I'm super confident in.
by Nick Ercolano
August 03, 2020
by Nick Ercolano
July 28, 2020
by Nick Ercolano
July 27, 2020