Week 15 Waiver Wire + Week 14 Recap

Week 15 Waiver Wire + Week 14 Recap

Injuries

Mike Gesicki/DeVante Parker/Jakeem Grant

  • Shoulder injury for Gesicki - most concerning, going to miss time most likely
  • Parker and Grant both lower body injuries, left games and didnt return.
  • So the pickup here would be Lynn Bowden - the rookie out of Kentucky. Bowden led all Dolphins in routes run. 
  • So for those of yall that don't know Lynn Bowden, sometimes I forget that all you guys dont, a lot of my audience is season long and when we're looking at rookies in like February/March, us dynasty guys are hyper aware of them.
  • So Lynn Bowden is this wildly versatile, athletic, talented guy from Kentucky. He's a WR by position, last year his QB got hurt, and Bowden became the QB for Kentucky -- he ended up leading the SEC in rushing. He accidentally fell into the rushing yardage throne in the SEC - spoiler doesn't happen by accident.
  • In Week 13 we started to see Bowden get more play time, caught all 4 of his targets for 41 yards, added an 11 yard run.
  • Then this week, following all these injuries, he became the guy - led the Dolphins in routes run, caught 7-of-9 targets for 82 yards playing almost solely out of the slot.
Matthew Stafford (rib)
  • Chase Daniel had to finish the game
  • We don't know the severity of the injury, but Staff almost always pushes through and finished the game.

Keenan Allen/Mike Williams

  • Left w/ hamstring injury, returned, then did something to his back.
  • Bad news is that they play on Thursday, so if either of these things are worse than best case scenario injury wise, it's tough to say for sure Keenan suits up, or at least is limited in the game.
  • Mike Williams also left with a byke injury, what else is new, guy just stays getting body slammed. It's not expected to be serious, but again quick turnaround here.
  • The obvious boosts would go to Hunter Henry and Ekeler, the next guy up in terms of usage would be Jalen Guyton, but this kid Tyron Johnson might be the better add ifwbh. Guyton is the big play guy, who catches a 70 yard TD every 5 weeks, gets on your radar and then the clouds float back over him, so he's no longer on it. This kid Tyron Johnson is small but fast as hell
  • He went 7-6-55-1 yesterday.
  • The Raiders who they play on TNF, have been very bad against opposing WRs over the last month, month and a half. They're entire secondary is shot/banged up.

Alex Smith (calf)

  • Haskins came in, finished the game
  • Smith left early for the locker room in the second quarter due to a calf injury. Head coach Rivera said Smith was available for return. The injury was to the heavily surgically repaired leg, and the team will be cautious because of this. He can most likely play in Week 15.
  • They play Seattle, which is usually thought of as an amazing matchup, but over their last five games, Seattle is allowing just barely over 200 passing yards/game and 5 passing TDs over the last five games. I'll caveat that came against Goff, Kyler, Wentz, Colt McCoy and Darnold, but they're probably not the shit defense they were to start the year.

Deebo Samuel (hamstring)

  • Just sit ya ass down and we'll get excited about you in 2021, sir. 
  • Had the hammy injury about a month ago. 
  • Aiyuk has been an absolute stud - had a lot of sit/starts with him yesterday too, and as ive been saying - until he physically shows you any reason not to be a set and forget, keep it that way. My rankings will come out later this week on Patreon, but he's probably a WR1 next week

 

Titty or Committee

Detroit

  • Swift first game byke, played on around 45% of the snaps, got 60% of the RB opportunities. Felt more like an easing in game, after the long absence - but not good enough to throw him into the welcome byke segment
  • They get Tennessee next week and i love this matchup for Swift, for a few reasons. If Stafford is hurt or limited, they're going to lean on the RBs. The Titans are going to score, a lot. Swift has at least 4 targets in 7 straight games. and 5 in three straight.
  • Tennessee overall just not a strong defense at all.
  • I think we see that snap count jump up from 45 to 65% under Bevell. 

 

Miami

  • Mr. John explains this well and it might be pointless to harp on this with all the uncertainty in their backfield right now. Gaskin on the COVID list, very possible he misses next week - Salvon Ahmed did not practice at all last week and was ruled out by friday so it's possible he misses another week here. If that's the case, I really don't D-Wash as a flex play next week - 17 opportunities.
  • I wouldnt look too much into the snap counts, they were down touchdowns in the 4th quarter and it was all Laird. Washington got the GL carry on the 1, didnt convert, a little bit of luck and he woulda been the fine flex play we ranked him as.
  • The other thing to note on Wash was that he was limited in practice all week with a hammy and missed last week's game, so maybe less than 100% here?
  • They get NE next week, who had been great vs. the run lately, but got absolutely torched by cameron fuckin akers on TNF. Tomorrow's video wil be my ROS rankings video for the final two weeks, but I'd imagine Akers is a borderline RB1 moving forward.

 

Welcome Byke

Miles Sanders

  • Here's what I'll say about Sanders.. the narrative this week is going to be how Jalen Hurts helps Sanders out so much in the run game, with the read options and shit.. I mean maybe, but his numbers came from that big 80 yard TD run. Don't forget, his three toughest run matchups this year, BAL, PIT, and now NO, Sanders has busted off a 70+ yard run. That's always very much in his range of outcomes. He leads the league with 3 rushes of 40+ yards.
  • So it's a fine line -- that's part of his game, you obviously can't predict it weekly, but I remember getting a lot of questions on Saturday's Q&A about whether or not to start Sanders,, and most of the time I was choosing Sanders bc he has that one play ability upside to make his entire fantasy day.
  • Outside of the 82 yard TD run, Sanders was predictably stagnant otherwise, going 13-33 on his other carries, he caught 4/5 targets for just 21 yards, but the 4 catches tied Goedert for the lead.
  • So, my tone sounds negative, it's kind of like me talking about an ex-gf like fuck that girl, but i also still wanna.... fuck that girl again... it was a welcoming sight --- out-carried Boston Scott 14-3, no other RB saw a touch, out-targeted Scott 5-1. 
  • What I do like about Hurts being under center, is that he's far from a refined NFL QB when it comes to throwing. It seems like when his first read isn't open, his instinct which he follows through on almost every time is to tuck it and run, or the short dump to Sanders. So while Sanders' efficiency through the air has been ratchet, 
  • His next two games are ARZ and DAL - both plus matchups for sure.

Josh Jacobs

  • 18 opps for Jacobs. didnt do anything with them but brighter days ahead, i hope.

 

 

Waiver Pickups

  • Jalen Hurts
    • He was an obvious pickup last week, but not an obvious start - he is now. Nearly 20 FPs against a really good Saints defense, he keeps drives alive, it's fantastic for fantasy. Now he gets the Cardinals and Cowboys to close out the year.
  • Chad Hansen
    • Texans WR Chad Hansen has 21 percent of the team's targets over the past two weeks.
    • He's been a big part of the offense and Randall Cobb is unlikely to return, at least not in Week 15 maybe all season. Fuller gone, Still gone. Cooks didn't play yesterday, I'd expect him byke next week but Hansen will still get run out there. He's not a terrible PPR flex. I mean he kid of is, but you get the point.
    • They play the Colts and the Bengals. But something to note here is that both Xavier Rhodes and Darius Leonard got hurt in this game. The severity is still TBD, they might both still be ok for Week 15 - but obviously a huge upgrade for HOU next week if they're out.
  • Tim Patrick (32%)
    • Guy is just a baller
    • Sutton went down in Week 2
    • In the 10 games that have followed, Patrick has gone over 100 receiving yards and/or scored a TD in 70% of them.
    • They get Buffalo and LAC over their next two.
    • Buffalo might actually be tough, they might give Patrick similar treatment as they did with Chase Claypool this week with a lot of Tre'Davious White coverage.
  • Gardner Minshew
    • Is he byke? I don't even know, but he should be added in superflex leagues in case.
  • Irv Smith
    • If Rudolph is out again, Smith is a really intriguing guy who I think ill be a TE1 next week vs. CHI - while they're obviously a tough matchup vs. WRs and RBs, they've been bottom 5 at covering opponent TEs. Smith needs to be added, and then keep a close eye on Rudolph.
  • Trayveon Williams
    • He's worth adding in dynasty leagues for sure
    • Once Gio fumbled, Trayveon took over the backfield for the most part, and for the most part its a backfield you dont want any part of in fantasy, but Trayveon was a super producer at the college level at Texas A&M - he just turned 23 he's still young. 
    • The Bengals could cut Gio this offseason for a small dead cap hit, it's possible Williams is Gio Bernard next year. They're built the same, Tray was a very good pass catcher in college, etc.
  • CLV - gets NYG and NYJ. They're a must-add, right now. The giants look putrid with a limited Daniel Jones. The Jets look putrid at full strength. We've gotta hope they get Denzel Ward byke for Week 15 - but it's not looking great. Either way Myles Garrett might be able to single-handedly get them to double-digit FPs.
  • TEN - needs to be looked at if Matt Stafford is out.
  • Houston's defense is terrible, but they do get CIN in Week 16 if you have room and the WAS gets CAR in Week 16 - they're just so good at defense.

 

 

Other Notes

  • Melvin Gordon court date today for the DUI, can be suspended this week, under new CBA - would be 3 game suspension. Gordon missed Week 6 earlier in the year - Lindsay saw 23 carries in that one.
  • There's almost never an instance where drops actually become a problem for players, when it comes to fantasy, but this was an exception. Diontae Johnson spraying canolo oil on his fingers pre-game and started dropping balls like fuckin times square on new years eve. He ended up getting relatively benched, played fewer than 50% of the teams snaps. And his replacement, James Washington played really well, catching a nice tug from Big Ben. I think we need to monitor closely what Mike Tomlin says throughout the week about it - but I think we're still safe to throw Diontae out there as a must start, even getting benched 7 targets in the game. Had five straight games of double-digit targets coming into SNF.

Leave a comment