Week 15 Picks Against the Spread
After saying I loved the board last week, I went 6-10, so that tells you where my head is at. I did go 2 for 3 on my SuperLocks, though, and we're back with three more that are almost guaranteed to help pay off you and your kid's student loans. I also kinda hate the board this week, which means only good things are to come from this week's picks.
Last Week: 6-10-0
Current Record: 112-96-0
SuperLock Record: 18-8-0
New York Jets @ Baltimore Ravens (-14.5)
Pick: Jets (+14.5)
What a way to start. These teams are on completely opposite sides of the spectrum, and if the Ravens were heading into this game100%, I’d take them no questions asked. The only reason I like the Jets is because Lamar is semi-hobbled, along with Mark Andrews, and Hollywood Brown is perpetually banged up. Even at 75% I’d imagine they’d have no trouble beating the life out of New York, but on a short week, in a game they can win sleep walking, I’d expect a slower-paced, ground-heavy approach a pretty solid defensive front, leading to a low scoring affair. The Ravens covering any number more than two tugs is something I’m not comfortable siding with given the limitations of their key offensive pieces, so I’ll, regrettably, roll with Gang Green.
New England Patriots (-9.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals
Pick: Patriots (-9.5)
The Patriots have looked extremely unimpressive lately, but they’re still the Patriots…and the Bengals are still the Bengals. New England’s defense will have a much easier task this week as compared to who they have faced recently, and the Pats’ offense should be able to bounce back against the horrid Cincy D. All things considered, this my first SuperLock of the week, as I see now way in which the Bungals keep it to double digits.
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers (-4.5)
Pick: Packers (-4.5)
Mitchell Trubisky has been fairly competent recently, and as with all good things, they must come to an end. Lambeau is intimidating for any player, so one who has displayed his issues on almost a weekly basis, they’ll be highlighted in this divisional matchup. As for their defense, they’re still among the league’s best, but with the dynamic duo out of GB’s backfield, they should be able to move the ball down field. I think the Packmen walk out of this one with a margin of victory of more than a tug, so with that logic, I’ll roll with ARod and the boys.
Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans (-2.5)
Pick: Texans (+2.5)
This pick is simple. This line makes absolutely zero sense to me, so I’m fading the obvious pick. Tennessee has been rolling opponents, and now, at home, against a divisional opponent that just dropped a game to the Broncos, you’d think that would continue. Nope. Vegas knows something that we (I) don’t, and I’m not here to challenge that. So, what should you take away from this? I personally would side with the Titans, but every confounding variable says to go with Houston, so here I am, rocking with the Texans.
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5)
Pick: Chiefs (-10.5)
Drew Lock is an animal and has been on a tear lately, but we saw much of the same with Daniel Jones earlier this year. What I’m trying to say is, this is the game where it falls apart. I’m not doubting that he’ll be a great QB in the future, but in KC, against a revitalized defense, in a divisional game? I don’t see how he continues his stretch of dominance. Now, the Broncos’ defense is solid, but Watson sorta tore them apart last week down the stretch, and Mahomes, although underperforming, also has that ability to blow up independent of the matchup. I don’t love this pick, but it’s the one I’m rolling with, so sue me.
Miami Dolphins @ New York Giants (-3.5)
Pick: Dolphins (+3.5)
Oh brother. As I’ve said about many games before, the only thing I can guarantee is that I’m not watching this game. Along with that sentiment, the reason behind my pick is me not feeling comfortable with either team being considered favorites, no matter their opponent, so because of this, I’m taking the Fins.
Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) @ Washington Redskins
Pick: Eagles (-4.5)
The Eagles may stink, but the Skins reek. Another simple explanation: Philly (somehow) has something to play for. The Cowboys lead the division and are falling apart at the seams, which has allowed an equally unimpressive Philadelphia squad remain in contention this far into the szn. They had an impressive comeback win against a divisional opponent this past week, so I’d imagine they’d once again try to take advantage of these low-tier matchups and not keep the game close (even though that didn’t exactly happen on Monday night against the G-Men).
Seattle Seahawks (-5.5) @ Carolina Panthers
Pick: Seahawks (-5.5)
The Seahawks got thrashed this past week, and to be honest, this offense has looked pretty stale these past couple weeks. I’d have to imagine Tyler Lockett’s health has a lot to do with that, and with reports coming out that he’s now 100% (also saw uptick in targets last week), I’d expect a big bounce back against a weak defense. As for Carolina, we now know Kyler Allen is definitely not the answer, and I’ll assume he makes a middle of the road Seattle defense look incredible this week. As long as they don’t top 20 points, which I think is a safe bet with how incompetent they’ve been as of late, the Hawks should be able to cover the number with ease.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Oakland Raiders (-6.5)
Pick: Jaguars (+6.5)
????? I mean, I get that the Jags haven’t been good, but being a TD underdog to the Raiders? Come on now. Jacksonville’s defense has fallen apart, but Derek Carr isn’t necessarily someone who can expose that, and the Oakland secondary should be a good matchup for Minshew to regain his footing. In the end, I don’t trust Oakland as TD favorites against nearly any team in the league, and although the Jags are on that cusp, they don’t quite fall into that category.
Cleveland Browns (-2.5) @ Arizona Cardinals
Pick: Cardinals (+2.5)
SuperLock part deux. The Browns struggled to pull away from the Bengals this past week, and the Cardinals are basically what the Bengals want to be. Their defenses are comparable, with a slight edge to Zona, but the Cards’ offense leaves Cincy’s in the dust. Kyler Murray is a maniac and should have no issue hanging a crooked number on the fraudulent Browns. Also, the Browns have only won on the road twice this year: against the Jets in primetime where Luke Falk was spinning it, and somehow, against the Ravens. Sure, Arizona may not be the toughest place to play, and it sure is a nice change of scenery, but I just can’t trust these shit heads as road favorites against a team that is capable of putting up a ton of points.
Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) @ Los Angeles Chargers
Pick: Vikings (-2.5)
No analysis here, folks. I bet against the Chargers last week and they won, so now, I’m fully committed to a win-win scenario. If the Chargers lose by one or two points, though, I may just never leave my house again.
Los Angeles Rams @ Dallas Cowboys (-0.5)
Pick: Rams (+0.5)
Dallas STINKS. I’m not afraid to say it. They are the most inconsistent team in the NFL and I don’t think it’s even close. Because of that, I’m not fully confident in this pick. If the good Cowboys show up, they could beat the hell out of the Rams, but if the bad Cowboys come to play, Sean McVay will be looking like boy genius on the sidelines. I’m willing to bet that a mediocre Dallas squad rolls out there, and with the Rams looking revitalized offensively these past few weeks, I’d imagine they will give Dallas trouble defensively. In a pickem, I’ll side with the team that is hot as opposed to the one that is about to give up their division lead to a squad that had to go to OT with Eli Manning.
Atlanta Falcons @ San Francisco 49ers (-10.5)
Pick: Falcons (+10.5)
I used this logic in the Titans game, and I’m using it again here. This spread is way too fishy in my opinion, as the 49ers, at home, should be at least two TD favorites in my opinion. They are much better on both sides of the ball and proved last week that they can score at will, and did so against a fairly strong New Orleans’ defense. Now, they get an easier task playing the Falcons, which makes me want to rock with the birds. It’s foolish, I know, but incompetence stems from ignorance and Vegas knows a whole lot more than I do, so I’m fading the seemingly easy pick here.
Buffalo Bills @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5)
Pick: Bills (+1.5)
SuperLock part three. The Bils are basically just a better version of the Steelers, and the only real advantage Pitt has here is Heinz Field. That is a big factor because at home, in primetime, the building will be shaking, but Josh Allen stands down to no man. Sure, he’ll struggle against this Pitt defense, but probably not more than Hodges will against the Bills. I have a whole lot more confidence in Buffalo to score/consistently move the ball downfield than the Steelers, and the fact that they’re dogs makes this decision fairly easy.
Indianapolis Colts @ New Orleans Saints (-8.5)
Pick: Saints (-8.5)
The Saints got their hearts ripped out last week, but at least they have something to play for. As for the Colts, they’ve lost five of their last six and I run a faster 40 than their current #1 in the passing game. They are depleted on all levels offensively other than runningback, but against New Orleans’ defensive front, that won’t matter all too much. As for the Saints’ offense, they just put up 46 on the 49ers, and now, face a defense that has allowed 30+ in back to back weeks, including a five TD performance by Jameis Winston donning a fractured thumb. I don’t see the Colts topping 20 this week, and with the Saints looking to take their anger out after last week’s thriller, I can’t see Indy keeping it within the number.