Week 14 - Patreon Q&A ft. Noah
What's cracking. I'm joined by fellow BD blogger, Noah @FBGawd (twitter.com/fbgawd) and we're breaking down some mailbag Q&A type questions from our Patreons. Some sit/starts, a few trade questions and whateva whateva.
So, the question is Ekeler, Justin Jackson, Jeff Wilson Jr. in 0.5 PPR?
If I'm being honest, everything about this has my gut telling me to play Wilson. But my gut has made some questionable calls in its lifetime. Like last weekend, when it told me that taking tequila shots at last call when I had church in the AM was a good idea.
However, I think just based on the fact alone that the Chargers are facing Cincinnati means it has to be one of them.
Look at what Cincy has given up on the ground to RBs in their last 7 games: James Conner (19/111/2), Kareem Hunt (15/86/1), Peyton Barber (19/85/1), Kamara/Ingram (25/160/2), Gus (17/115/1), Nick Chubb (28/84/1), and Phillip Lindsay (19/157/2).
- Buffalo -3.5 vs NYJ (38.5)
- NYG -3.5 @ WAS (41.5)
Aaron Jones is a lock for me at RB. Don't think McCarthy being out effects him at all. If anything, it'll probably keep Jamaal Williams' fat ass off the field more. He's scored 6 TDs over their L4 games, and hit 100 yards twice. Ridiculously good matchup against ATL this week. Jones is your RB1. RB2 is a bit closer, but still a pretty heavy lean towards Sony Michel imo. Mainly by default, since the Spencer Ware situation looks MESSY. He saw a significant number of carries/snaps, but wasn't involved in the passing game, and now they bring in Chark West. Michel, plays MIA, who we saw him go 25-112-1 against them back in Week 4. I know Burkhead is back, but Michel is still the runner. Pats are more than TD favorites again and will probably use a similar game plan to last time. 7th most FPs allowed to RBs on the year, I like for a Michel-centered game for the Pats in Week 14.
While I like the strategy and outside thinking, I'm not sure they're relevant here. Diggs' ceiling is way higher than Zay Jones'. Diggs has a 31+ point game on the year, a 25+ point, and multiple 20+ point games. I know Zay is hot right now, but I'm not sure that's the answer to the solution. Godwin over Chubb kind of fits in that category. Chubb's ceiling in any given week is among the top fantasy players overall. The only one I could get on board with is Allen over Rivers. Playing against the Bengals, as 14 point favorites, points to a low total pass attempts number from Rivers, possibly sub-10 in the second half.
I took a look at Rivers' numbers and wanted to see his performances/volume in games where the Chargers won big. They have six games in 2018 in which they've won by 8+ points. Rivers hasn't attempted 30 passes in any of those games. He averages 25.8 pass attempts (413 over 16 games) and 18.5 FPs in those games, as opposed to 37.5 attempts & 21.9 FPs/game. So, there's a case to be made here for Allen over Rivers. If you're really, really desperate and are going to make that move, I guess you can stack Zay Jones there, but don't tell anyone I told you that.