Week 13 Picks Against the Spread
Firstly, happy Thanksgiving you filthy animals. Secondly, it’s time to win some money. I looked at the board this week and it looked at me with soft eyes and a warm embrace, so it should be a fantastic week. The SuperLocks are cooking and I don’t plan on that changing, so while you still have the chance, take out a second mortgage and bet the house on these picks.
Last Week: 7-7-0
Current Record: 96-80-0
SuperLock Record: 15-6-0
Chicago Bears (-2.5) @ Detroit Lions
Pick: Lions (+2.5)
I know it’s tradition and all, but this has to be put to an end. Who wants to watch two Mitch Trubiskys face off on turkey day in a battle of who can turn the ball over more? Certainly not I. As is the case for the Giants, Redskins, and a few other sorry franchises, I will just blindly choose against a team if they are favorites, and the Bears are one of those squads. The icing on the cake is they are road favorites in a divisional game, so this is an easy pick for me. Let’s start the week hot and roll with the king of the jungle over the king of being the 12th pick every season.
Buffalo Bills @ Dallas Cowboys (-6.5)
Pick: Bills (+6.5)
Both teams are on a short week, but the Cowboys’ is even shorter as they played on Sunday night and got their hearts ripped out. They still have a stranglehold on the NFC East because the three other teams in their division are absolute abominations, so in what should be a must-win game is just another jog in the park. As for the Bills, they aren’t so lucky, as they share a division with the Patriots and the Jets who are hotter than Sam Darnold’s piss after spending a night in the town. Buffalo’s defense is similar to New Englands’ in the sense that they are great against the pass and middle of the pack against the run, so we may see a repeat of this past week. Obviously, the Pats are a much better team than the Bills, but not enough for me to be confident laying a TD with the Boys. I wouldn’t be surprised if Buffalo wins outright, which is fitting since it’ll be their third W in a row, which in my business, is called a turkey.
New Orleans Saints (-6.5) @ Atlanta Falcons
Pick: Saints (-6.5)
The Saints just got their ass beat by the Falcons less than a month ago, and I’m not so sure the Saints are the Super Bowl contenders we may have thought they were a few weeks back. Despite this, the Falcons are a disgusting mess that had been leaning on their defense after returning from the bye, which unsurprisingly crumbled last week. The Saints are looking for revenge like Drake in 2016 and the Falcons are in a perfect spot for New Orleans’ offense to bounce all the way back. Julio is also banged up, which is worth noting, but Marshon Lattimore may also not suit up, but I’m not so sure that whatever combination of these two playing/sitting decides this game or the line. Saints by a million.
New York Jets (-3.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals
Pick: Jets (-3.5)
The Jets have scored exactly 34 points in three straight weeks, albeit against garbage teams, but it’s not like the Bengals will be any different. Cincy’s defense is a dumpster fire and they have a QB controversy between two gingers that have been soul searching ever since they were sent to the bench. I don’t think it’ll be a blowout simply because I can’t put that much trust in the Jets, but a field goal and the hook is certainly manageable. I would make this my SuperLock but I’d look like a fool if (when) the Jets fall apart.
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts (-2.5)
Pick: Titans (+2.5)
If you’ve been reading these every week, you’d know I hate the Titans. I don’t know why, but I did. Key word: did. I think the Marcus Mariota stink was keeping me far, far away from these frauds, but now with Tannehill under center, they’re actually competent. Derrick Henry is a freak of nature and their passing game is filled with 6’3 receivers with track speed. On the other side of the field, the Colts are down to a converted right guard in Jack Doyle and a hobbled T.Y. Hilton catching passes from Jacoby Brissett, who is borrowing Forrest Gump’s childhood accessories to keep his knee in tact. For the first time in a while, I feel confident betting on the Titans, which means they’ll probably get their doors blown off. I’ll roll with the punches.
Philadelphia Eagles (-9.5) @ Miami Dolphins
Pick: Dolphins (+9.5)
This game features a terrible quarterback who probably has 1-2 years left in this league, and on the other side, Ryan Fitzpatrick. All joking aside, Carson Wentz has looked terrible, and his receiving core is certainly not helping him. Reports are now surfacing that Zach Ertz is aging like a pear and has been limited in practice, so if all he is left with is Dallas Goedart and various former Eagles that are in a life long cycle of getting cut and re-signed (shoutout JMat) then I’m not so sure that the Dolphins won’t be the more talented weapons group offensively, which is saying a whole hell of a lot considering Kalen Ballage is their starting runningback. The Eagles are creeping into that territory where I just bet against them simply because they’re favorites, and because they’re on the road, the final nail in the coffin has been hammered in. Dolphins are the play.
Green Bay Packers (-6.5) @ New York Giants
Pick: Packers (-6.5)
Green Bay may be fraudulent, but the Giants stink out loud. If there was ever a way to abuse this Packers defense, it would be on the ground, but somehow New York has decided getting Saquon the ball in space is no longer a priority. Idk, seems smart to me I guess. Also, Green Bay just got plastered on national TV against a coach that’s half Rodgers’ age, so I’d expect this to be one of those 350 yard 4 TD outputs that helps people sleep at night thinking Fraudgers is still a top tier QB.
Cleveland Browns (-1.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Pick: Steelers (+1.5)
This game could go either way. Baker Mayfield and the Browns may drop the h(elmet)ammer on their divisional rivals to avenge their fallen teammate Myles Garrett a few weeks back, or the Steelers could come out of the gates firing and have their defense give it all they got to shut Mayfield up. I’ll roll with the latter simply because the Browns have been playing too good for too long now and I just don’t see that continuing with Devlin Hodges using his world renowned bird calls to bring out some of Baker’s patented ducks. I don’t have a strong conviction either way, so I’ll go with the home dog that will probably field the best unit of both teams in this game: their defense.
Washington Redskins @ Carolina Panthers (-9.5)
Pick: Panthers (-9.5)
Christian McCaffery could cover this spread all by himself, which is what he will do come Sunday. Washington’s defense will have zero answers for him and their offense certainly won’t be able to keep up. The only pics Haskins will be involved in this week will be ones that James Bradberry and Donte Jackson, not Skins fans, take back to the house. Carolina should comfortably take this one as they still have playoff hopes due to the Saints’ inevitable demise.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-0.5)
Pick: Buccaneers (+0.5)
Jameis Winston is 100% getting a new contract this offseason and I know exactly why: I’m betting on them. No, this isn’t me saying my bets directly correlate with NFL players getting paid; instead, it’s me showing just the mental hoolahoops people will jump through to keep putting their trust in 2019 Vinny Testaverde. Week after week, pick after pick, I fall back in love with him after seeing the former Seminole throws two or three tuddies. I don’t know how or why it happens, but it just does, and because of that, I’m rolling with the Bucs in a pickem. Saying Jameis is the only reason for this pick would be a lie, though, as I’m all in due to the Jaguars having to play Tampa’s game instead of vice versa. Leonard Fournette will have no room to run against this daunting TB front seven, forcing Foles to drop back probably more than he’s comfortable with. Obviously, the secondary is Charmin soft, but I just don’t see how they keep up if the Buccaneers lay 24+ points on them. Because of this, it’s my SuperLock of the week.
San Francisco 49ers @ Baltimore Ravens (-5.5)
Pick: 49ers (+5.5)
I hate this pick. Hate it. I took the Texans against the Ravens a few weeks back and tried to rationalize it and looked like a fool. I’m afraid this will be much of the same, so I will do no such analysis. If Lamar beats me, he beats me. If the 49ers cover, I want all the credit.
Los Angeles Rams (-2.5) @ Arizona Cardinals
Pick: Cardinals (+2.5)
It’s simple, really. I just can’t bet on the Rams as road favorites. The Cardinals offense has been clicking, and whatever the antonym for clicking is, it’s what the Rams offense has been doing. I don’t understand how a team with Brandin Cooks, Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, and Todd Gurley could inspire zero confidence…oh wait, I can. Jared Goff. Honestly, though, their offensive line is most to blame for their demise, as Goff has been pressured on 37.2% of his dropbacks, which isn’t great as the Cardinals are ranked 10th by PFF in pass rush. Also, for all the big names the Rams boast defensively, they had no answers for Lamar Jackson, and coming off the bye, I’d expect Kyler Murray to have enough juice to replicate LJax’s performance as best he can, keeping the Rams on their toes all night. I don’t see how LA wins this one, so I’m taking the Cards with confidence.
Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) @ Denver Broncos
Pick: Chargers (-2.5)
The Chargers always suck in mile high, but with news that Drew Lock will be making his first ever NFL start, I can’t confidently say Denver will keep this within a field goal. Sure, their defense has been great and Phil has been the exact opposite, but as long as they don’t get shut out, they should cover the number. On top of that, Derwin James is likely to return from injury, which isn’t the most inspiring thing for a rookie to hear. This game is going to be a mess, so all I can hope is for the Bolts to not make me look like a complete asshole with this pick.
Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5)
Pick: Chiefs (-9.5)
I think it’s safe to say the Raiders died last week. Gruden grinded his teeth for 60 minutes watching his red headed step child drop 34 on his head, and now he has to go up against the former MVP off a full week of rest. 9.5 is a pretty big number for a divisional game, but in Arrowhead, I just can’t see a scenario where the Raiders are able to ketchup after a big lead.
New England Patriots (-3.5) @ Houston Texans
Pick: Patriots (-3.5)
The Texans stink. Plain and simple. Frauds. The Patriots haven’t looked sharp offensively, but Houston is a team that you can beat over the head with a blunt object repeatedly and Bill O’Brien wouldn’t do anything to stop the bleeding. At it’s core, this is a game of coaching and the Patriots are in another stratosphere in that department. New England by a million, which is why they’re my second SuperLock this week.
Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks (-2.5)
Pick: Seahawks (-2.5)
The Seahawks didn’t look great last week against a rejuvenated Eagles’ defense, but they were coming off a bye and were likely shaking off the rust in a game they knew they could sleep walk through. Now, at home, playing a team that has not shown any sort of talent in the secondary this year, Russell Wilson should feast. The Seahawks still have a shot at winning the division, as the 49ers play the Ravens this week, so they should be amped in this one in primetime. And therein lies the problem for Minnesota. For how much Kirk Cousins is getting paid, you’d think he would be some sort of movie star, but instead, he gets shaken up on public access. When the lights are the brightest, he disappears, which isn’t a good formula since they’ll be facing a 12th man on Monday night.