Week 13 Pickem'

by Noah Pires November 28, 2018

Week 13 Pickem'

Y'all know the drill, it's time to start fading my picks. I'm a complete mess. The streak is officially dead and gone after I went 6-9 (nice) this week. I'm not trying to lose, I'm really not, but failure is inevitable at this point. All hope is lost. You may think, why don't you just choose the opposite of your picks? Well, it isn't that easy. My brain will know exactly what I'm trying to do and screw me over once again. All I can hope is that this week is better than the last.

 

CURRENT RECORD: 84-92-0

 

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-7.5) @ DALLAS COWBOYS

PICK: COWBOYS (+7.5)

CONFIDENCE: 0/10

I said it last week, I'm never confident picking against the Saints. Against the Falcons, they won by a light 14, and are probably the best team in football, but I like the way Dallas plays and think they have a chance at home. Dallas has an elite defense and dominates time of possession, which is something the Falcons couldn't manage to do last week, yet still kept it within two scores. At home, I think Dallas can run the ball 20-25 times with Elliott, despite the Saints having an elite run defense, throw a few balls to Amari to keep the chains moving, and do whatever they can to hold off Drew Brees. There isn't much of shot for the Cowboys to win, but there's a real possibility the lose this game by 7 or less, which is all I need.

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ ATLANTA FALCONS (-0.5)

PICK: RAVENS (+0.5)

CONFIDENCE: 8/10

The Falcons just aren't that good, while the Ravens have been solid, despite having to play through a QB change. They gave Oakland the work last week, and against a similarly weak defense in this spot, they should be able to score. Now, they did put up 2 defensive touchdowns last week, which isn't something you should expect every week from the Ravens, but it speaks to how dominant they are defensively. As for their offense, Lamar Jackson should tear the Falcons apart, and if he ever gets pressured, he can just dump it off to the runningback, where Atlanta has continuously been destroyed. Even though they're on the road, I'll take the Ravens in a pickem.

DENVER BRONCOS (-3.5) @ CINCINNATI BENGALS

PICK: BENGALS (+3.5)

CONFIDENCE: 4/10

The Bengals are terrible. They are now without Andy Dalton, A.J. Green looks unlikely to play (now he's saying he's good to go, so who knows) and Hue Jackson is on the coaching staff. As for the Broncos, they just beat the Steelers, which, upon first glance, would make you think this spread is too small. Because of this, it looks like a good 'ol fashioned trap game. Denver isn't the same team on the road as they are at home, and for some reason, I have a feeling Jeff Driskel may make some noise. I wouldn't be surprised if they shock the world and win outright, and even though I have nothing to really back these claims up, I'm taking Cincy.

LOS ANGELES RAMS (-9.5) @ DETROIT LIONS

PICK: RAMS (+9.5)

CONFIDENCE: 8/10

The Lions are dead. Thanksgiving is typically the time of year when Matt Stafford kicks it into gear, but he still has no weapons and simply looks awful. Golladay is the only guy there who can catch a pass, so even against a defense that can get exposed through the air, the Lions don't have anything that can take advantage of that weakness. As for their defense, Chase Daniel threw 2 touchdowns against them on a short week. Jared Goff is coming off a bye, so there should be no issues for him to torch the Lions. I'm taking the Rams, and if the spread was 30, I'd still hammer LA.

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS (-14.5)

PICK: PACKERS (-14.5)

CONFIDENCE: 1/10

The Cardinals lost by about a thousand points last week, and the Packers got embarrassed  in a divisional matchup on Sunday night. Rodgers hasn't looked like himself this year (for the most part), but there's no chance he doesn't go out there, at Lambeau, and drop 40 points on the Cardinals. The Cardinals can't score, and even against an awful Packers' D, I'm not worried about them keeping up. The fact that Green Bay are this big of favorites is worrisome, but Arizona blows, so I'll rock with the cheeseheads.

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ HOUSTON TEXANS (-4.5)

PICK: BROWNS (+4.5)

CONFIDENCE: 8/10

The Texans have won 8 in a row, and at home, I'd expect them to try to keep the streak rolling. Their defense has been incredible and their offensive line has looked much improved. What I'm worried about, though, is the fact that Houston doesn't score all that much, as Watson's throwing about 25 or less times per game, and their best runningback is still Lamar Miller. Cleveland, since their coaching change, has put up big numbers, but I'm not sure they'll need to in this spot. However this game flows, I think it'll be decided by a field goal in the end, which, if that happens, will mean the Browns are the pick.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-3.5) @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

PICK: COLTS (-3.5)

CONFIDENCE: 10/10

This is the lock of the century. The Colts need to keep winning, while the Jags have nothing to play for. Kessler is in at QB this week, Leonard Fournette is out, and their defense is in shambles. I mean, they gave up 24 to the Bills. THE BILLS. Luck is throwing 3 TDs a game like it's nothing, and if he hits that mark, I'm not sure there's any chance Jacksonville keeps it close. Last time they faced off, the Jags did manage to keep it within 3, but they aren't the same team now that their line is dead and have a new face at the helm. The Colts' pass rush isn't all that bad, and with Andrew Norwell headed to the IR, they should eat. 3.5 is way too small of a spread, and I'll take the Colts by a million.

BUFFALO BILLS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS (-5.5)

PICK: BILLS (+5.5)

CONFIDENCE: 8/10

I love Josh Allen. I don't know what it is, but I think he's going to go crazy this week. He's throwing to plumbers and electricians, but somehow, some way, he connects with them on 75 yard scores. Miami isn't a good team, and in a divisional matchup, the Bills defense should go out there and establish their dominance. Buffalo should be able to hold them under 20 points, and with Josh Allen slinging that thing 100 yards in the air, the Bills should be able to put up atleast 14. Hell, last week they dropped 24 on the Jags, so they shouldn't have an issue against the Dolphins.

CHICAGO BEARS (-4.5) @ NEW YORK GIANTS

PICK: BEARS (-4.5)

CONFIDENCE: 9/10

The Giants have looked better recently, though they've played the 49ers, Buccaneers, and Eagles over their last 3 weeks. Now, they get a tough matchup against the Bears, who have an elite defense, as well as an offense capable of putting up big numbers. Chicago is on a long week after dominating the Lions on Thanksgiving with Chase Daniel at the helm, so if Trubisky returns, it should be an easy dub for Da Bears. Even if he doesn't, I'll bet on Chicago to blow the Giants out of the water this week, as they couldn't hold a lead against the pathetic Eagles last week.

CAROLINA PANTHERS (-3.5) @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

PICK: PANTHERS (-3.5)

CONFIDENCE: 9/10

Tampa just blew the 49ers out of the water, and with Jameis being Jameis, and the Bucs being the Bucs, I don't think there's any chance they do that again this week. The last time they played, Carolina whooped them by 14, and even though the Panthers are on the road this time around, I'd expect much of the same. CMC is finding the endzone about 8 times a game and Cam Newton is playing great right now, so against the putrid Tampa D, Carolina should put up a big number en route to a double digit dub.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-15.5) @ OAKLAND RAIDERS

PICK: CHIEFS (-15.5)

CONFIDENCE: 8/10

Kansas City had a week to rest up and do whatever they needed to in order to prepare for the Raiders. In all honesty, their preparation probably took all of 15 minutes, and should have no problem putting up 30+ on them. As for the Raiders, they have no receivers, and their best weapon in the passing game is on the wrong side of 30 (as are much of their players). They won't be able to keep up, and since their defense as a whole creates less pressure than Aaron Donald alone, Mahomes will have an eternity to throw a 70 yard dot to Tyreek Hill every drive.

NEW YORK JETS @ TENNESSEE TITANS (-10.5)

PICK: JETS (+10.5)

CONFIDENCE: 9/10

My take that the Titans are frauds finally came to fruition Monday night. Their defense was exposed, and offensively, their 2 big TDs came off a broken play and two Houston corners tackling eachother. Obviously the Jets aren't great, either, but they weren't completely out of it against the Pats. In all honesty, I just don't think the Titans should be 10.5 point favorites against anybody.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-6.5)

PICK: PATRIOTS (-6.5)

CONFIDENCE: 5/10

The Vikings just took the Packers out back and did what was right. Now, they'll get an actually good team, so they won't have such easy treading. They're traveling across the country to face New England, who wants, or even needs, home field advantage in the playoffs. Every game for them from here on out is serious, and if they want to prove their dominance, they'll show the Vikings what they're all about: winning big. I'm not overly confident that they win by a full touchdown, but I'm not going to bet on the fraudulent Vikings to keep it all that close.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-10.5)

PICK: 49ERS (+10.5)

CONFIDENCE: 9/10

The Seahawks are actually good. Like, really good. There are three things, though, that make me like San Fran in this spot. Firstly, they just got blown out by Tampa. The 9ers could do nothing offensively, so they should be able to bounce back some this week. Secondly, this is a divisional matchup, which are typically played close. I certainly think Seattle is a much better team, but they won't need to be up 14 to have this game in control. And lastly, if the 9ers' offense can't much going against the Seahawks at home, Seattle won't need to run up the score. They like to dominate time of possession, and they could win this game by scoring 2 TDs and a field goal, so if San Fran just finds the end zone once, they'll be winners in my eyes.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-3.5)

PICK: CHARGERS (+3.5)

CONFIDENCE: 8/10

Ben has been awful recently, but he was on the road the past two games. Now, he goes back home against a defense that hasn't been all that great, but with Joey Bosa back, they'll create pressure, which, as we all know, will cause Big Ben to turn the ball over a hundred times. Both teams have great offenses, even with Melvin Gordon out, and their defenses are mediocre. They are fairly even, as shown by the spread, but as a Chargers fan, I'm not going to concede that the Steelers are the better team, so I'm rocking with the road dogs.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-6.5)

PICK: EAGLES (-6.5)

CONFIDENCE: 7/10

Raise your hand if this game is going to blow. Alright, put your hands down. I don't think I'm going to be paying much attention to this game, in all honesty. I have no interest in watching Colt McCoy or the fraudulent Eagles duke it out on Monday night. The reason I'm picking Philly is solely because they have an actual quarterback, receivers, runningbacks under the age of 35, and some hope. Plus, they're at home, so I don't hate taking them here, no matter how bad they've been.



Noah Pires
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