Week 13 - Patreon Q&A ft. Noah

by Nick Ercolano November 08, 2018

Week 13 - Patreon Q&A ft. Noah

What's cracking. I'm joined by fellow BD blogger, Noah @FBGawd (twitter.com/fbgawd) and we're breaking down some mailbag Q&A type questions from our Patreons. Some sit/starts, a few trade questions and whateva whateva.

Sign up at www.patreon.com/bdge

Adam Humphries

Darnell decided to leave dumb comment. And that was after he originally left a dumb comment "Bi". Buh dum chhh. I'll see myself out.

As much as I hate to say it, Humphries has been a dog, mane. I hate to say it, because the way fantasy works is that as soon as you come around to these players, you put them in your lineup and splat, 2.7 fantasy points. We've seen Adam Humphries before. His name is Cole Beasley. His name is Danny Amendola. His name is Adam Humphries.

That being said, he's on a hot streak and I think it's worth riding the wave. He's finished as a top-24 PPR WR in 4-of-5 games and is literally the WR7 in PPR leagues since Week 8, a five-game span. AND he's done something that not even Adam Thielen has... topped 53 yards in each of those five games. It's obvious that the injury to O.J. Howard boosts his floor. DeSean Jackson went to see a specialist about his thumb/hand and he could miss some time. You ask if this is an offense that you can stack players in. Absolutely. Jameis is one of the most statistically-driven QBs in the NFL, when he can stay on the field. Here are Jameis Winston's numbers this year when he's been their QB for a full game (> 20 attempts):Jameis Winston fantasy week 13

337 passing yards, 41.5 attempts. The problem was the number of mouths to feed made the weekly projections impossible to accurately predict. But with players slowly making their way out of the lineup, the target funnel has become slighter, Humphries remaining inside of it.

Their remaining schedule is Carolina at home, their pass d is buns, NO at home, they'll need to put up points before it gets tough, Ravens on the road and Dallas on the road. Neither of those last teams are too strong against slot WRs or TEs, so if you want to stack Brate and Humphries, I'm all for it.

I'm all for it. I would offer Boyd before Moore. Moore seems to be coming into a zone, and finally put up back to back weeks or production so he's someone I want on my roster as their ROS passing schedule is gorgeous. Boyd, on the other hand, I'm okay making the move on. Byes are done, so Allen & JuJu aren't coming out of your lineup. You should be able to fill that third flex spot with Baldwin or Moore playing the matchup. With Boyd, we have no more Dalton & A.J. Green should be back soon. He also has to play Denver this week, Chris Harris, nope. And LAC next week, so two tough matchups in a row.Justin Jackson Week 13

This is a pretty easy one for me based on a process of elimination. Get Jackson out of your lineup. He's fools gold. People are chasing that 8.1 YPC on 7 carries from last week. I understand the appeal, to the naked eye, given Gordon's absence, but last week was a fluke. Week 7 is likely a better indicator of what we'll see. In Week 7, Gordon's first missed game, Ekeler played on 95% of the Charger's snaps and saw 85% of the backfield touches. They won that game 20-19. Last week, Gordon left the game and Jackson ended up seeing 7 carries to Ekeler's 5. Guess what, they were playing against the Cardinals, probably the NFL's worst run defense. And they won 45-10, of course, they're not going to keep Ekeler in the game at the end knowing Gordon is probably out the next game or two. They're in PIT this week, which is going to be a very tough game, meaning Ekeler stays on the field. It wouldn't surprise me at all if Jackson finished this game with fewer than 3 FPs. Moore is too hot, in too good of a matchup.

This is a bit of a tough question to answer with the injury updates still up in the air. The two injuries I'm keeping a very close eye on are Aqib Talib, CB for the Rams, and Deion Jones, LB for the Falcons. Both have missed most of the season, but have been activated, have been practicing and are at worst 50/50 to suit up this Sunday for their respective teams. I'll say right now, I'm most likely sitting Gus Edwards since it's a full PPR league. He gets little-to-no involvement in the passing game. Despite being the workhorse in Baltimore, he hasn't seen a single target over their last two games. Ty Montgomery has taken his role and is the pass-catching back there. Now, Deion Jones being back is a monster upgrade for this Falcons defense. Jones is an All-Pro linebacker. Jones is arguably the best coverage LB and a good run-stopper.

It's hard to sit Amari Cooper, but he is their only weapon, and I think that undoubtedly means he'll see shadow coverage from Marshon Lattimore. After a slow start to the season, Lattimore has turned things around and per PFF has graded out as the elite coverage CB that he was last year over the Saints last five games. They don't always use him to shadow, so it's not a lock, but we've seen it 4-5 times this year against teams who have a top-flight WR1. The last time he was asked to shadow someone was in Week 11 when held Jeffery to one catch for three yards on two targets.

Golladay seems like the safest play to me. If Talib is out, then he's my lock here. Without Marvin Jones and Kerryon most likely, Golladay will be the centerpiece of this offense, without a real CB to cover him. Talib will stunt his efficiency, but not his volume.

 

As for DROY, I think it's going to be Derwin James of the Chargers. Absolute steal in the draft at 17 or whatever. He's been a huge piece of this defense while Joey Bosa makes his way back into the lineup. He's PFF's #6 overall safety this year, and with Bosa gone, he's been asked to take on a huge role as pass rusher, and kilt that, the 4th highest pass rush grade among safeties. With Bosa back he'll probably be asked to play coverage a little more so I'm excited to see what comes of that. The other player in contention I would say is Darius Leonard of the Colts. Absolute stand-out on that defense. Overall, PFF's 5th highest graded LB. And he grades out well in every facet. Pass rush, coverage, run defense. He's the total package. He leads the NFL in tackles with 114 and it's not close... and that's with missing a game.

As for the keepers/dynasty, etc. I think the smartest thing to do is start looking at contracts and retired players. The best place to do this is www.spotrac.com



Nick Ercolano
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