Week 11 - Top Waiver Wire Pickups

by Nick Ercolano November 12, 2018

Week 11 - Top Waiver Wire Pickups

Week 10 is in the novels, so we're looking at snatching the gold mines off of the waiver wire. Let's get it. This list will only be composed of players owned in 55% or less of Yahoo leagues.

Quarterbacks 

1. Dak Prescott - Dallas Cowboys

- Yahoo Ownership: 35%

Dak and the Cowboys offense is hitting a bit of a hot streak, statistically speaking at least. Dak threw for 270 yards and a TD on Sunday night, adding another 9 yards and a score with his legs. Over the last month, Dak is averaging nearly 23 FPs/game and is QB6 over that span. Cooper has clearly been a good addition to this offense, and Dak is using him as the WR1, a much-needed weapon.

Dak has a jooocy matchup in the dome in Atlanta in Week 11. The Falcons pass defense, as we know, has been miserable all year due to their injuries on that side of the ball. The Falcons have allowed 3 or more passing TDs and/or 300+ passing yards to all 8 of the QBs they've faced since Week 1. Eight straight. They've also allowed 20+ rushing yards to 5-of-8. 

I love me some Dak as a sneaky start in Week 11.

- Next three matchups: @ATL, WAS, NO

- Use #1 Waiver Wire: No

- FAAB Spend: $1-3

2. Marcus Mariota - Tennessee Titans

- Yahoo Ownership: 30%

Mariota is an enigma. He has three modes. Hurt, really good, and really bad. As we fantasy players usually do, we become very biased towards what players have done recently. I.E. Marcus Mariota.

On Sunday, Mariota threw for 228 yards and two touchdowns, adding another 42 yards through rushing/receiving. The offense is rolling and they get a big divisional game against Indy next week. And while the Colts defense is certainly improved, they're far from good at stopping fantasy QBs. If you exclude Week 7 versus Buffalo while Derek Anderson was under center, over their last five games, Indy is allowing 312 passing yards with a 12:4 TD:INT ratio along with three rushing TDs. This quietly looks like a great matchup for Mariota in Week 11.

- Next three matchups: @IND, @HOU, NYJ

- Use #1 Waiver Wire: No

- FAAB Spend: $3-6

3. Eli Manning - New York Giants

- Yahoo Ownership: 17%

Idk what's going to happen on MNF, Eli could throw for 47 yards but he's streamable in Week 11 because they're laying TB.

- Next three matchups: TB

- Use #1 Waiver Wire: No

- FAAB Spend: $0-1

4. Jamies Winston - Tampa Bay Bucs

- Yahoo Ownership: 11%

Dirk Koetter's dumbass comes out after their 16-3 loss to the Redskins at home, and says he took over playcalling duties in TB. Which is incredible, considering Todd Monken, their OC, was doing a fantastic job all year.

Well, Fitz threw for 400+ yards for the fourth time this year, but couldn't convert anything into points, throwing two pics. My point here is this. Dirk Koetter needs to get fired, and I think he will. If that happens, I'd imagine whoever comes in and takes over will throw Winston back into the fire. Regardless, Fitz is due for enough bad games over the remaining portion of the season that we will see Winston back under center. 

- Next three matchups: @NYG, SF, CAR

- Use #1 Waiver Wire: No

- FAAB Spend: $2-5

5. Lamar Jackson - Baltimore Ravens

- Yahoo Ownership: 7%

With Flacco's hip injury on the verge of costing him a game or two, Lamar Jackson becomes a super high-ceiling fantasy option at QB, and likely available in your superflex/2QB league. 

If he does indeed get the start for the Ravens coming off of their bye, he'll be looking at possibly the easiest slate of passing defenses over the next 3 weeks.

- Next three matchups: CIN, OAK, @ATL

- Use #1 Waiver Wire: No

- FAAB Spend: $3-6 

Running Backs

1. Mike Davis/Rashaad Penny - Seattle Seahawks

- Yahoo Ownership: 52/14%

It's crazy to say, but all three SEA RBs need to be owned at this point. It's clear Davis is the backup to Carson, but following Penny's performance on Sunday, he's in line for more work too. Mike Davis saw 15 touches to Penny's 12, but Penny's 12 carries (not targeted) was more then Davis' 11, and Penny turned that into 108 yards, looking not so much like Eddie Lacy which was the case in the first half of the year. I know everyone wants to get super high on Penny because of the first round pedigree, but guys, if Carson is healthy, its his job by a mile. And if he's not healthy.... then this looks like a backfield split in favor of Davis who is way more involved in the passing game, who now has 11 catches on 14 targets over the Hawks' last two games. 

Davis needs to be owned too. If Carson's injury proves to be a bit more serious then we originally thought, Davis is an every week high-end RB2 with RB1 volume. Carson was a GTD on Sunday, so I'd assume he'll go in Week 11, but he's been injured throughout his career and has a tough time staying healthy. Even when healthy, Davis has double-digit touch standalone value in the NFL's most run-heavy offense. So, he's a flex play, with major handcuff upside.

I also think Carson's injury is more serious than they're making it. Like, they said immediately after the game, he's not going to do anything at practice all week, that's like a big red flag, that you literally can't do anything? I feel like I was only the one who noticed this? But what do I know, I'm just a doctor.

Also, they play on TNF this week... so.

- Next three matchups: @GB, @CAR, SF

- Use #1 Waiver Wire: No (Unless Carson continue not to practice)

- FAAB Spend: $10-15

2. Derrick Henry - Tennessee Titans

- Yahoo Ownership: 48%

I hate him. And he sucks. Him, Jamaal Williams, Eddie Lacy, Trent Richardson, the NFL really doesn't learn. But, as I said with Mariota, the offense is rolling right now, and if that's the case, Henry will get fed, both literally and with the ball on the GL. He now has 4 TDs over the Titans last three games. Lewis is the clear RB1 here and there's no chance that changes, but if you're desperate during the bye week, Henry is going to give you as good of a chance at a TD as anyone on your wire. 

- Next three matchups: @IND, @HOU, NYJ

- Use #1 Waiver Wire: No

- FAAB Spend: $2-4

3. Doug Martin - Oakland Raiders 

- Yahoo Ownership: 45%

Admittedly, Martin doesn't look terrible when you watch him, but their offense, on the other hand, does. They've combined to score 9 points in their last two games and have scored 10 points or fewer in 4-of-5. 15 carries a game isn't much good if none of them has a shot of getting in the end zone. Richard has maintained the passing-down role, but Martin adds a 2-catch, 20-yard receiving floor each game.

The Raiders will take on arguably the NFL's worst run defense at Arizona in Week 11. I would say it might be good game script for them, but even the "new & improved" Leftwich-led Cardinal offense might be too much for this Raiders D to handle. 

- Next three matchups: @ARI, @BAL, KC

- Use #1 Waiver Wire: No

- FAAB Spend: $4-7

4. Frank Gore - Miami Dolphins

- Yahoo Ownership: 27%

I will just keep putting him on this list. He is a staple, when I copy and paste the format in my blogs, from week to week, Gore is the part of the HTML that stays. Gore carried the ball 13 times for 90 yards (6.9 ypc) and caught 2-of-3 targets for 13 yards. He has next to no fantasy ceiling, as he's scored just once (receiving in 4) on 126 touches, but his floor of about 12-15 touches isn't the worst.

- Next three matchups: BYE, @IND, BUF

- Use #1 Waiver Wire: No

- FAAB Spend: $0-2

** Keep an eye on Josh Adams in Philly.

Wide Receivers

1. DeVante Parker/Danny Amendola - Miami Dolphins

- Yahoo Ownership: 20/44%

Who would've thunk that I'd be telling you that TWO Miami WRs are okay to pick up in fantasy... while Cockweiler is at QB. But here we are.

Amendola has quietly been a PPR stud over the last five games, aka since Osweiler has taken over. From Weeks 6-10, he's averaging 8.2 targets, 6.2 rec, 61 yards and 0.2 TDs, which is 13.5 PPR, never less than 9.3 points in a single week, and even good in half ppr - 10.4 Half PPR - he's WR13 in PPR leagues over this span. He's simply getting it done. With Albert Wilson already gone, Jakeem Grant looks next to be headed to the I.R. with an achilles injury. It's only a boost for Amendola. The concern for Amendola is the Tannehill's likely return after their Week 11 bye.

On the flip side, Parker hasn't been great, but he saw 11 targets on Sunday and now is locked into a near every-down role with Grant gone. Parker saw 9 targets in Week 8, went invisible in Week 10 before seeing the 11 on Sunday. I think Parker would get an upgrade with Tannehill back under center. Outside WRs usually do, the worse the QB is, the worse they are throwing outside, and tend to lean on the short over the middle weapons. I.E. Cockweiler.

I'm really not excited about much in this offense, but we're finally narrowing down the list of weapons here, by natural evolution and selection. Injuries.

- Next three matchups: BYE, @IND, BUF

- Use #1 Waiver Wire: No

- FAAB Spend: $3-6

2. John Ross - Cincinnati Bengals

- Yahoo Ownership: 17%

A.J. Green's going to be gone for a while. There was a report yesterday that said he's most likely going to miss the rest of November, which means he won't be back until Week 13. I'm gonna be very down on this offense until Green returns, and it's a reason I had Boyd on my sell-high list, because Green opens up the offense so much when he's on the field.

Regardless, someone needs to step up, and Ross will be one of those guys to do so. He led the team with 6 targets on Sunday. He only caught two of them, but they went for 39 yards and Dalton's only touchdown pass. 

- Next three matchups: @BAL, CLE, DEN

- Use #1 Waiver Wire: No

- FAAB Spend: $4-5

3. Anthony Miller - Chicago Bears

- Yahoo Ownership: 12%

This was Miller's first game of the year eclipsing 50 receiving yards. But mane did he smash it. Catching 5-of-6 targets for 122 yards and a touchdown. The touchdown was his fourth on the season, and he's quietly on pace for nearly 700 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns. That's a pretty damn good rookie year. 

He's getting more and more involved in the offense - his targets over L4 = 7, 7, 6, 6. After failing to play in more than 60% of the Bears snaps in any game prior to Week 7, Miller has now done so in all four games since, averaging about 72% of their snaps in that span. Even with Allen Robinson back on Sunday (95% of snaps), Miller played in a season-high 74% of snaps.

Anthony Miller fantasy football

While everyone is getting super excited about Trubisky and this Bears offense, I'm still a bit hesitant to crown them, given their last five games in which the QB has exploded, has been against a ridiculously easy schedule. We'll find out more about who this offense really is in Week 11 against MIN.

- Next three matchups: MIN, @DET, @NYG

- Use #1 Waiver Wire: No

- FAAB Spend: $4-5

4. Donte Moncrief - Jacksonville Jaguars

- Yahoo Ownership: 10%

Moncrief is pretty locked into the WR1 role here in JAX. As comes with the territory of being tethered too Blake Bortles, he's extremely boom or bust. But we saw the boom on Sunday, catching three passes for 98 yards and a touchdown. He's scored double-digit 0.5 PPR FPs in 5-of-9, two of which were 17+. He also has 75+ yards in 3-of-5. He's a desperation play, but he gives you way more upside than you can normally find on the wire. 

- Next three matchups: PIT @BUF, IND

- Use #1 Waiver Wire: No

- FAAB Spend: $4-5

5. Josh Reynolds - Los Angeles Rams

- Yahoo Ownership: 1%

With Cooper Kupp likely done for the year, Josh Reynolds will step up in the Rams well-oiled machine we call the Sean McVay offense. Kupp originally hurt the knee in Week 6 and missed Weeks 7-8 before returning in Week 9. With Kupp sidelined, Reynolds played on around 85% of the offensive snaps. As fantasy football usually does, it made a fool of owners that got cute and plugged him in for Kupp in Week 7, finishing with one catch for 19 yards, then once everyone sat him, he caught 3 balls for 42 yards and two touchdowns in Week 8. 

The key here is with Kupp out, Reynolds will be a near every-snap player as the Rams run 3WRs+ on 97% of their plays. As his game logs show, he's going to be a low-floor, high-ceiling boom-or-bust type guy moving forward. In terms of position at WR:

 

- Next three matchups: KC, BYE, @DET

- Use #1 Waiver Wire: No

- FAAB Spend: $4-5 

With Dez gone for the year, the Saints signed Brandon Marshall. Tre'Quan Smith has been ridiculously disappointing, but they do get the Eagles next week who have been BAD against outside WRs and just lost Ronald Darby for the year with a torn ACL, their CB depth is horrible right now. Brees should chuck up a light FO HUNNID.

Mentioned last week, were on Bye in Week 10:

Willie Snead - Baltimore Ravens

Keke Coutee - Houston Texans

Tight Ends

1. Vance McDonald - Pittsburgh Steelers

- Yahoo Ownership: 51%

Vance took advantage of the 5-TD game Ben had on TNF against the TE-friendliest defense in Carolina, catching all four of his targets for 44 yards and a touchdown.

He's been far from consistent, but consistency is something you ain't finding at TE outside of Kelce & Ertz this year. McDonald at least gives you upside and YAC ability, which is big for fantasy TEs.

It's a good matchup in Week 11 for Vance for a few reasons. One, if we go back to their last meeting, in last year's playoffs, McDonald caught 10-of-16 targets for 112 yards. And that was when Jacksonville's defense was actually good. Right now, they are not. They're coming off back-to-back games allowing multiple scores to TEs. Ebron had three on Sunday. The week prior, both Ertz and Goedert got in for tuddys. 

Would it surprise me if he caught one pass for 17 yards in this one? No. But it wouldn't surprise me if he went 6-60-1.

- Next three matchups: @JAX, @DEN, LAC 

- Use #1 Waiver Wire: No

- FAAB Spend: $3-5

 

Jeff Heuerman (5%), was on bye in Week 10.

D/ST

Try to look for:

1. Favorites (most important),

2. Playing at home

3. With a low over/under total.

1. Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals

- Yahoo Ownership: 52%

- Point Spread: -

- Over/Under: 

2. New Orleans Saints vs. Philadelphia Eagles

- Yahoo Ownership: 27%

- Point Spread: -

- Over/Under: 

3. Arizona Cardinals vs. Oakland Raiders

- Yahoo Ownership: 13%

- Point Spread: -

- Over/Under: 



Nick Ercolano
Nick Ercolano

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