by Nick Ercolano
November 24, 2018
What's up big homies & homettes. Sorry I couldn't get around to taping a video this week for ya but I still wanted to hit you with them big facts only by way of my fingers. Here are my top DFS & Draftkings plays for Week 12, position-by-position.
When looking at the QBs this week, four guys, in particular, jump off the DraftKings player page as obvious starts. The most expensive being Cam Newton at $6,200, playing at home versus Seattle. Since Cam's 0 score game in Week 1, he's thrown for multiple scores in every game since nine straight. Seattle, whose pass defense looked formidable to open the szn, has struggled over recent weeks, allowing multiple passing scores to four straight passers and 310+ yards to 3-of-4. I'm not sure I love Cam at this price when you can grab Jameis Winston for $6,000 at home versus SF. Sure, he's been bad, but he's nearly guaranteed 300 yards passing and multiple scores. People are buying into his last outing but forget about every single game prior to that in which, despite not being a good real-life QB, remains among the elite fantasy throwers. The prize possession at QB in Week 12, however, will go to Lamar Jackson playing against this putrid Oakland defense, that has to travel cross-country to Baltimore. Jackson, coming off of a 27-rush attempt game is going to be nearly impossible to fade at $5,700. Jackson managed to finish with nearly 16 FPs in Week 11 despite not scoring a single touchdown and throwing an interception. His floor is ridiculously high, and any QB that can rack up yards on the ground like L-Jax has that 30-35 point ceiling. Not scoring a TD is unheard of for QBs. Oakland's defense is the remedy for that. The Cincinnati Bengals defense is also a remedy for QB blues. That's who Baker Mayfield will take on in Week 12. I can't argue against the rookie at $5,500. Coming off of Cleveland's bye, Mayfield takes the field against the second friendliest defenses to fantasy QBs. He's been riding his light schedule to the tune of four straight multi-passing TD games, I expect that continue on Sunday without question.
The only running back in the main slate I'm looking to pay up for is Saquon Barkley, the highest priced DK asset this week ($9,100). Ya can't stop this man, can only hope to contain him. The rest of the top guys don't appeal much to me. Melvin is banged up, if he even plays. Conner and DJ are both in tough matchups, on the road. Pats at NYJ doesn't seem much like a James White game script, add in a healthy Michel off of bye and Gronk back to the mix as well and White becomes an easy fade at $7,400.
There are a number of mid-price values I lurve this week, starting at Nick Chubb ($6,300) who continues to assert his dominance, coming off of 209-yard 2-TD game, he gets a Cincinnati defense that allows more penetration than ya Lela Star. We know how well Chubb's get a long with Lela Star. He hasn't seen fewer than 20 touches since taking over as the workhorse in Cleveland. That being said, if you're tryna save a little bit of the CREAM, saving $600 to grab Matt Breida (@TB - $5,700) and/or Marlon Mack (vs. MIA - $5,500) is ideal. These two are a great starting RB combo in DK lineups. Breida has clearly secured the workhorse role in SF and coming off of their Week 11 bye, he should be as healthy as he's been since his leg injuries popped up this year. Not much needs to be said about him playing against Tampa. Mack, too, will benefit from a gorgeous matchup. The thing about Mack is that in order for him to perform like the RB1 he's shown glimpses of, he needs a matchup like Miami. He needs a game script that leans towards Indy zominating. He'll get it in this one as the Colts are 7.5 point favorites (hammer this line) at home. His workload should be similar to the ones he saw against Buffalo and Oakland in Weeks 7-8 where Mack touched the ball 21 and 27 times for a total of 308 total yards and four tuddys.
At the lowest tier, I like the idea of stacking Gus Edwards ($4,400) with Lamar Jackson against Oakland. Sure, it's possible Edwards is a one-hit wonder, but him being so involved in a game coming off of their bye tells me that it was their offensive game plan heading into Week 11. Edwards capitalized and I think he'll roll this week. Important to note that Alex Collins missed practice time this week with a foot injury but returned Friday and is expected to play. I'm not sure how Peyton Barber is still priced at $3,900, coming off of an 18-106-1 game. I mean I do, it's cause he doesn't catch shit, but the workload is nice for the price. Austin Ekeler at $3,700 obviously becomes the chalk if Melvin Gordon is out and is probably a good play regardless, against Arizona, one of the NFL's worst run defenses in 2018.
Week 12 seems like the week to fade high-priced RBs and pay up for guys like Odell Beckham Jr. at $8,800 against a Philly secondary that could potentially be without CBs Rodney McLeod (knee, IR), Ronald Darby (knee, IR), Jalen Mills (foot), Sidney Jones (hamstring), Avonte Maddox (knee, ankle), and Rasul Douglas. Don't fade OBJ please. I'll also be paying up for Antonio Brown ($8,700) even in a tough matchup at Denver. The Broncos defense ranks 25th in FootballOutsiders.com DVOA versus opposing WR1s. Brown has scored a touchdown in eight straight games, 10 total in that time. Denver has allowed big games to just about every opposing top WR over the last month and a half: Keenan Allen (9-89-1), Hopkins (10-105-1), Watkins (8-107-2), Fitz (4-40-1), Woods (7-109), Spaghetti Anderson (3-123-2).
The extra medium-priced scene is a little murky, especially compared to that of the RB position this week, which is why I recommend splurging on top WRs at the expensive of ball carries. I know Jarvis Landry has burned all of us far more times than a hot cup of coffee but at $5,900 in full PPR, versus this disgusting CINCY pass d who've allowed the 6th most PPR FPs/game (22.0) to the opposition's slot, it's too good on paper to pass up imhao. I also quietly like Emmanuel Sanders this week at home versus Pittsburgh. PIT has allowed the 5th most PPR FPs/game (24.1) to the opposition's slot in 2018. While Joe Haden while likely matchup with Courtland Sutton, Sanders will be left free to run amuck.
With Doug Baldwin looking legitimately questionable for Seattle's game at Carolina, Tyler Lockett ($5,200) and David Moore ($3,700) both become intriguing plays. On the flip side of that game, D.J. Moore is probably chalky at this point coming off of that 7-157-1 Week 11. Torrey Smith might as well be ded, and Devin Funchess is unlikely to play, solidifying Moore's volume floor.
Mane the tight end landscape is ugly right now. < Stole this line from 2017, 2016, 2015 and 2014's article.
I'm paying up this week for either Zach Ertz or George Kittle. #HotTake.
Ertz ($6,400) is only $200 more than Kittle ($6,200), but the Niner's TE should feast against a TB defense allowing the 2nd most FPs to TEs in 2018. Even with Nick Mullens leading the charge, I don't see anyway Kittle doesn't have a massive Week 12.
Two of my three favorite (NO & DAL) defenses did their thing on Turkey day, but there are still some solid options here.
The Jags are far and away seen as the top DST per DraftKings, but I'm actually fading them. I'd prefer either of the next two options, Baltimore or LAC, not on the road. BUF has proven to have a tough defense at home and that's going to cause problems for Blakey Borts, which might lead to a down fantasy DST performance. I actually think BUF's defense for $1,300 less would be a preferred play, but I'll have the Charges ($3,400 vs. ARZ) or the Ravens ($3,300 vs. OAK) in just about every lineup.
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