Week 12 Picks Against the Spread
I'll admit it, my picks have been dogshit recently, but I bucked that trend last week. All of my SuperLocks hit and I went nine and five, so whoever is watching over me is doing a pretty good job. The confidence is back, the picks are in, and the money's in the bank. Let's get to it.
Last Week: 9-5-0
Current Record: 89-73-0
SuperLock Record: 13-6-0
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (-3.5)
Pick: Texans (-3.5)
Houston is an enigma. On paper they should be very good, but on the field they just aren’t. Their pass defense is a gaping hole and their offensive line gets Deshaun Watson hit on more than a 10 in the club. Despite this, I’m rolling with the home team because Houston still has a chance to top the division, and if Bill O’Brien wants to keep his job, he’d go all out against the current top dog in the AFC South. The Texans already dropped a game to Indy earlier in the season, but maybe with the Colts’ top two offensive weapons now hobbled, they can suffocate their offense and hang a crooked number in primetime. I don’t have much confidence in this pick, but I’m sticking with my gut.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons (-4.5)
Pick: Buccaneers (+4.5)
SuperLock city. I still think the Falcons STINK and Tampa isn’t half bad, despite what the recent outcomes have been. Yes, Atlanta’s defense has looked incredible as of late, and Jameis makes every defense look like the ’85 Bears, but he still scores a whole hell of a lot week after week. They’re currently 7th, averaging 27.7 points per contest, and even with Atlanta looking impeccable, I’m putting my faith in Winston to continue the trend of throwing a million times and pushing a 30 piece. This game reminds me a ton of when Tampa and Arizona faced off, both of which were teams with fairly solid run defenses but a much weaker secondary. I wrote that the game would be a shootout without either team really pulling away, and when this happens this week again, I’ll look like a genius. Hell, throw some of your kid’s college tuition on TB moneyline and thank me later.
Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills (-4.5)
Pick: Broncos (+4.5)
I like this pick so much that I now hate it. It just seems to easy. Both teams are headed by an Allen that only completes passes within 7 yards of the LoS while boasting very strong pass rushes and secondaries. I have no confidence that either squad will be able to move the ball through the air, and in the frozen tundra that is Buffalo, I’d bet both teams just try to kill clock and run 40 times a piece. This game could end 13-10 and I wouldn’t bat an eye. On top of all this, Josh Allen hasn’t thrown an interception in almost two months so I know he’s fiending for a pick and Denver can help satiate that hunger. Good field position and a strong run game for the Broncos, up a game a relatively soft run defense, makes for the perfect low-scoring affair.
New York Giants @ Chicago Bears (-6.5(
Pick: Giants (+6.5)
I’m more interested in betting on the O/U for QB turnovers in this game than the actual spread itself, but this comes down to what I’ve been saying about teams like the Jets, Giants, Redskins, and Bears recently: If you are a favorite, I’m betting against you. I don’t care if it’s snowing in Soldier Field and Mitch gets a bionic hip, I will never, in good faith, be able to bet on the Bears as favorites. It’s really as simple as that. Just as I said the Jets were my pick by default last week, the Giants are much of the same. The boys in blue should be able to feast in this game as Mitch will likely hang a donut, so 6.5 is a big enough number for me to be comfortable rocking with the G-Men.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals
Pick: Steelers (-6.5)
Guess which game I’m not watching at all this weekend? The only reason I have a semblance of confidence in this pick is because the Steelers should have great field position al game due to their resurgent defense and Ryan Finley’s inability to throw to any player donning black and orange. Chris Boswell may be the only fantasy relevant player in this game, but kickers themselves are irrelevant so this will be one of those games that by week’s end you’ll look at the scores and say to yourself “huh, the Steelers won 17-3, I thought they were on bye”. Just place your bet on the Steelers and forget about this game until Sunday night when you get to cash out.
Miami Dolphins @ Cleveland Browns (-10.5)
Pick: Dolphins (+10.5)
Well, it’s *checks watch* November, which means Ryan Fitzpatrick is trying to prove he’s still got some magic left so he can sign another ridiculous contract, and what better team to do it against a Browns team that everyone thinks is bouncing back? Shockingly, this isn’t a revenge game for Fitzy, but he is facing Baker Mayfield, who is essentially a younger version of himself. Ry Guy will get heated that this turnover machine in Browns gear has a free pass to be terrible while Fitz has lived in more cities than Fran Abagnale Jr. for the same issues. On top of that, Baker has a sorry excuse of a beard while the man heading the Dolphins has a majestic crumb catcher, adding more fuel to the fire. Will Miami win? Hell no, but 10.5 for a team that just lost their best player for attempted murder with a blunt object is just irresponsible. I can’t make it my SuperLock, but I will say, I am completely in on the Fins.
Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints (-9.5)
Pick: Panthers (-9.5)
My favorite part about this Panthers’ season is how much the QB situation has been talked about. A few weeks ago, Cam newton was as good as gone and Kyle Allen was a young Tom Brady, and now, after getting exposed by the Falcons, Allen has turned into Matt Cassell and Cam Newton is back to being the fashion forward MVP we all once loved. Either way, I’m siding with the Panthers for the sole reason that they got blown out last week. Stupid? Yes, but I never said I was any kind of expert. In fact, me being the exact opposite and having a very respectable record shows just how unpredictable this game is. Everything in the world points to the Saints in this game, but I’m fading the noise and making one of the most ill-informed picks on the board. Sue me.
Oakland Raiders (-2.5) @ New York Jets
Pick: Raiders (-2.5)
I love this game. We have a coach who looks like he just saw a ghost, heading a team whose quarterback actually saw ghosts, going up a QB who only believes in one spirit, the Holy Ghost. With Sam at home, the ghosts will be in attendance, and we may see a replay of Fatima where God shows himself to his biggest fan: Derek Carr. Whether or not this scenario plays out, the Raiders should wipe the floor with the mop on Sam’s head. This line is as small as it is simply because the Jets beat the hell out of the Skins last week while the Raiders edged out the Bengals, but it’s no secret who the better team is. Oakland is going to run the Jets out of town so fast you could call it, and Derek Carr will say, godspeed.
Seattle Seahawks @ Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5)
Pick: Seahawks (+1.5)
*Spice Adams voice* Ah ha ha. How are the Iggles favorites? The Seahawks are coming off a bye after taking down the formerly undefeated 49ers in a game for the ages, and now they get to play a bird with clipped wings. I actually love that Philly has a good run defense because that means Russ is going to need to drop back and chuck a lot, which, in my opinion, is a very good thing. I honestly don’t see how this game end within 14 points and Seattle coming out on top. This is so easy that I’m making it my second SuperLock of the week. This is as close to free money as you can get without incriminating yourself, so I’d run with this pick if I were you.
Detroit Lions (-3.5) @ Washington Redskins
Pick: Lions (-3.5)
It’s clear that Dwayne Haskins isn’t quite ready to be a starting NFL quarterback, and although the same may be the case for Jeff Driskel, he has at least shown he can keep up with his opponents. This time around he won’t need to keep up, but instead, should head a blowout in our nation’s capital bringing great shame to whatever Redskins fans that are left. I don’t love the Lions as much as I did to start the season, but I don’t trust Washington to cover any number smaller than 10 at this point, so I’m rolling with the cats.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans (-3.5)
Pick: Titans (-3.5)
This may be the slowest game of all time. As you may know, I am not a fan of the Titans whatsoever, so it must mean something if I’m siding with them. What this boils down to is Tennessee coming off a bye should be able to handle Nick Foles on the defensive side of things, and with how terrible the Jaguars’ run defense as been lately, Derrick Henry should be able to, as Marshawn Lynch so eloquently put it, run through a motherfucker’s face. The Titans may hold the ball for 40 of the 60 minutes in this one and grit out a 17-10 win. Whatever you do, hammer the under and put your entire life savings on the extremely unaccomplished Patriots of the south.
Dallas Cowboys @ New England Patriots (-6.5)
Pick: Cowboys (+6.5)
And here we have the Patriots of the north, or just the Patriots. They came out slow off their bye, but it’s not like they had much competition. Now, they face a resurgent Cowboys squad that is competent on both sides of the ball, something New England hasn’t seen very often in 2019. Yes, their defense is still elite and likely a top three unit, but the way the boys have been clicking leads me to believe this won’t be as easy as this line may suggest. Whatever the outcome, I don’t see the Patriots taking this by a touchdown and wouldn’t be surprised if they dropped this one at home. Then again, it’s the Patriots and Uncle Bill could draw up some wild concoction that leads the team to a 42-0 victory, to which I would not be surprised.
Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers (-2.5)
Pick: Packers (+2.5)
This is a huge game for the Packers, and coming off a bye, I think they blow San Fran out. The 49ers have no offensive firepower left after Kittle, Sanders, Deebo, Matt Breida, and Joe Staley sustained injuries, and I think after a week long break, the Packers’ defense will be rejuvenated. Offensively, they may struggle a bit with the 49ers swarming defense, but Kyler Murray was able to hang 25+ on them in both of their meetings. Backed by a phenomenal run game, ARod should be able to keep pushing the ball down field, and with the lack of weapons, Frisco won’t be able to keep up. I think the Cheeseheads win here and solidify themselves as the top dog in the NFC.
Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) @ Los Angeles Rams
Pick: Ravens (-3.5)
Quoth the Raven, Sean McVay, boy genius, is never more. The Rams are an absolute atrocity and Jared Goff can’t throw a football if his hands are two degrees below room temperature. Luckily they’re at home in this one, so being chilly won’t be an issue, but even then, the Ravens’ defense will overwhelm the Cali boy. Marcus Peters and Eric Weddle are going to intercept at least three balls in a revenge game for the ages. As for Baltimore’s offense, I’m not sure anyone can stop Lamar Jackson’s dynamic playstyle, so even if Aaron Donald is breathing down his neck all game, he’ll be able to lead the squad to atleast a 24 point output, in my humble opinion. If this is the case, which it is, the Rams won’t be able to find paydirt thrice to keep it within the number. Usually I’d ride with the home dogs, especially in primetime, but I just don’t see how they keep it close.