by Nick Ercolano
November 17, 2018
Every Saturday you know we're breaking down the top DFS, DraftKings players of the week. Cheers to Week 11 if you're still alive.
Drew Brees vs. PHI ($6,500)
Brees has been on fire as of late. I know a lot of people got nervous seeing Ingram return, and them going super ground heavy, but Brees byke,
He gets a home game in the dome versus a depleted Philly secondary who just lost Ronald Darby to a torn ACL in Week 10. They'll get back Sidney Jones this week, who's been out since Week 6 but Jones has been terrible in his limited sample so far in 2018 though, graded out as PFF's 99th best CB out of 113. Jalen Mills was out for Week 10, he might miss this game. They have no one at CB right now. They're allowing the 9th most FPs to the QB position, Brees is pretty good at QB, the math checks out. Brees has put up over 600 yards passing with a 7:0 TD-INT ratio over the past two games and is on absolute fire. He's someone I'll pay up for this week.
Marcus Mariota @ IND ($5,500)
I went in-depth on Mariota in this week's WW video. Last week the former duckling threw for 228 yards and two touchdowns, adding another 42 yards through rushing/receiving. The offense is rolling and they get a big divisional game against Indy next week. And while the Colts defense is certainly improved, they're far from good at stopping fantasy QBs. If you exclude Week 7 versus Buffalo while Derek Anderson was under center, over their last five games, Indy is allowing 312 passing yards with a 12:4 TD:INT ratio along with three rushing TDs. This quietly looks like a great matchup for Mariota in Week 11.
Players priced $7,000-$9,000
Saquon Barkley vs. TB ($8,700)
Barkley is a no-brainer this week against arguably the NFL's worst defense in the Bucs. The Bucs will be without their top LB in Lavonte David while he deals with a sprained MCL. David was PFF's 10th highest graded coverage LB in the NFL in 2018, so it's a big boost to a guy like Barkley who eats up passes. Barkley's coming off his worst game of the year in Week 10, going for 100 total, scoreless yards on 24 touches, but it was the first time this season he's scored fewer than 20 PPR FPs, and prior to Week 10, Barkley was averaging nearly 28 PPR FPs/game over their last four.
Ezekiel Elliott @ ATL ($8,500)
Another no-brainer, imhao, Zeke takes on the Falcons in the dome. I will be the first to say, the Falcons getting Deion Jones back is huge for that defense. He's not only a run stopper but one of the best cover LBs in all of the league. He's been out since Week 1 with a broken foot, but he's been activated and is expected to play in Week 11. Regardless, this doesn't make the Falcons defense scary, it just makes them not hte shit show they've been. They've been a team allowing receptions to the running back position by the handful with or without Jones.
Zeke is coming off of the best game of his season, and one of the best of his career. He totaled 187 yards and 2 scores on 25 touches, 6 by way of receptions. He's seen fewer than 4 targets just once this year, and caught fewer than 3 passes just twice. He's already topped his career-high in receptions (35) and he's caught 10 balls over the previous two weeks.
Look for Zeke to eat by land and air against a Falcons team allowing the 3rd most FPs to Rbs in 2018.
Players priced $5,000-$7,000
Kerryon Johnson vs. CAR ($5,800)
I like what I've seen out of Kerryon since Golden Tate left. There was a lot speculation about what would become of Golden Tate's 27% target share. Would it go to Golladay and Marvin Jones. Would T.J. Jones get more looks from the slot. Would Theo Riddick man the slot leaving Kerryon to get more carries?
Both Theo Riddick and Kerryon have benefited in the passing game. And it's because of their usage.
Both guys are playing a lot more, and both guys are lining up in the slot or out wide a lot more too. Good news for KJ's PPR upside. I didn't include 7-8 because Riddick was out it wouldn't give us a real picture of what the split would be for KJ. But over the last two games, him lining up all over the field more often has resulted in 9 catches on 11 targets, 45 yards, and a touchdown. That 5.0 YPR will go up soon.
Statistically, Carolina has been decent against RBs for fantasy purposes, allowing the 8th fewest but only due to their weak RB schedule. Anytime they played against a somewhat decent back, the back got the job done. Zeke scored 17.5, Tevin Coleman 16.5, Gio 19.6, Saquon 28.9, Alex Collins had about 15, James Conner had 14.3 before getting knocked out last week. So, moral of the story, good RBs succeed against Carolina. And KJ is that.
**Fading everyone else in the X medium.**
Players priced $5,000 and below
Dion Lewis @ IND ($4,800)
I'll take 20 touches for $4,800. I know people don't trust Lewis, and admittedly, it is a bit difficult given the offense and lack of touchdowns, but he's seen 19, 23 and 22 touches over the last three games. Fading him this week would solely be based off a recency bias of Week 10, while he had games of 155 and 122 yards over the previous two, and nearly 22 PPR FPs in both of those games, nearly 5x his price on DK. Overall, Indy has been good against the run, but they are allowing the 12th most FPs to the position.
I just think it's tough to pass up 20 touches, likely 3-4 of them being passes, for this price.
Mark Ingram vs. PHI ($4,700)
As 9 point favorites in a game with a 56 point over/under, which I'm old enough to remember 56 points being a high game total, Ingram certainly has a place in Week 11 DFS lineups. The Eagles defense is not the same defense it has been over the previous few years, a team you'd basically have to fade fantasy RBs against. Not the case in 2018. Philly is FO's 24th ranked run d, they're a bit better per PFF (14th) but are still 27th in tackling, which is not good when you have a bull like Ingram with the ball his hands. They're coming off a game where they jut allowed 187 yards and two scores from Zeke, a couple weeks earlier 230 yards to Barkely.
Again, I think NO roles in this game, Brees at home against a group onto their 3rd and 4th string CBs, which doesn't directly effect Ingram, but the better this offense does, the better Ingram will do.
Michael Thomas @ CIN ($8,800)
I've pounded the drum enough already about what I think this Saints-Eagles game is going to look like. Therefore, play Michael Thomas without any CBs in Philly.
DeAndre Hopkins @ WAS ($7,900)
First glance I didn't think he'd by my 2nd choice in the gabagool, but alas. Washington has gotten absolutely smoked by outside WRs lately, well the entire year. They're the 5th friendliest fantasy defense to WRs in 2018 and Hopkins only runs 33% of his routes on the right side, where Norman lines up so he'll get plenty of routes against their CB2/3s.
Don't need to say much more.
T.Y. Hilton vs. TEN ($6,100)
I'm high on Hilton this week mane. The Titans d has been solid this year, but not great at stopping WRs. They've allowed a WR to top 100 receiving yards 6 times in 9 games this year. Unsurprisingly, the oly teams that couldn't get it done were the Jaguars, the Ravens (Crabtree still went 6-93-1), and the Cowboys, where Cooper went 5-58-1 in his first game. PFF suspects Adoree Jackson is their best CB to shadow Hilton, but idt that will be the case, they've only used shadow coverage once all year, it was with Malcolm Butler in Week 6 vs Crabtree. I think Luck stays hot, and Hilton capitalizes on this one.
Amari Cooper @ ATL ($5,400)
Coop has shown to have a really solid floor with the Cowboys seeing 10 and 8 targets, catching 5 and 6 passes, and if there's a team to show your ceiling against, it's the Falcons. They've allowed 15 PPR points to 10 WRs this year, 3rd most FPs overall to the position. Dak is hot, this offense looks good, in the dome, a near 50 point game total. The Trufant, Alford combo was once one to fear, but they've both largely underperformed this year.
Players priced $5,000 and below
Donte Moncrief vs. PIT ($4,900)
I like Monc, not necessarily because I think he's a good play, but because we've seen his upside a few separate times this year, and ultimately that's what you're looking for in your DFS lineup, right? You want the lineup that smashes every lineup spot, and for this price, Monc is one of the few guys down here that, outside of people just saying "oh he has upside", does actually have big upside because he's proven it multiple times already in 2018.
The Steelers have actually been quite good against WRs, after a slow start where they were burned by Landry, Tyreak, Watkins, Evans, Godwin, John Brown, but since that Week 4 game, they've allowed just one WR, A.J. Green to top 75 receiving yards, 85 yards on 12 targets.
So, I repeat, Idk how confident I am in Monc, but I like the upside
Willie Snead vs. CIN ($4,300)
Snead is quietly the king of consistency. Consistently not scoring TDs for you. He has just one on the entire year, which came all the way back in Week 1. However, he's leading the Ravens in receptions, catch rate and YAC. The last time he saw fewer than 7 targets was in Week 3. Their entire passing offenses pretty much funnel through their three wideouts, while Brown & Crabtree take turns going invisible, Snead relishes consistency. I also think, as the Ravens slot WR, with the lowest aDOT and highest catch rate, he's not vulnerable to the QB change in BAL if there is one.
If you're playing him in DFS, you're hoping for a TD, and there probably isn't going to be a better chance then in Week 11 versus CIN. The Bengals have allowed a ridiculous 39.5 PPG to opponent's over their last 4. He'll face off against the slot CB of the Bengals Darius Phillips who grades as the 80th best CB of 113 per PFF. The Bengals allow the 5th most PPR fantasy points to the slot, 23.1/game. I'm a fan of rolling the dice on Snead in Week 11.
by Nick Ercolano
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