by Nick Ercolano
November 08, 2018
Every other Thursday, we're going to be breaking down my top trade targets for Week 10 of 2018 fantasy football. Looking at some guys you should be selling high or buying low based on their recent production in comparison to their rest of season value.
Let me know down below who your favorite buy-low, sell-high guys are!
1. David Johnson - RB, Arizona Cardinals
The schedule gets ridiculous. Coming off the bye, this is what a new OC needs.
2. Aaron Jones - RB, Green Bay Packers
It was a disappointing game from Jones who I pegged for a breakout in Week 9 against the Pats, and while he ran effectively (14 carries, 76 yards, 5.4ypc), he failed to score and lost a crucial fumble late in the game. It was just Jones' first NFL fumble that he's lost, so I won't read too much into that.
What we do know is that Jones is far and away the best runner in this backfield. He has yet to run for less than 5.1 ypc in a single game, and has gotten 41 carries to J-Will's 23 over their last four games. It was also encouraging to see Jones get four targets on Sunday which was a season-high, just a few days after Ty-Mont was waived. By default, Jones should see 3-5 targets a game going forward as just 1-of-2 pieces in this backfield.
The biggest concern for Jones is the game script. The farther GB gets behind, the more likely it is that Williams is used in passing situations (receiving and pass blocking). Luckily for Green Bay, their remaining opponents have a combined record of 28-30. The only game where GB might struggle as true underdogs is in Week 12 at Minnesota. Their game at Chicago in Week 15 is not a plus matchup, but I don't expect Chicago's offense to make this game out of hand by any means so Jones should stay heavily involved.
3. JuJu Smith-Schuster - Pittsburgh Steelers
JuJu's schedule isn't necessarily great going forward, he'll have a few tough matchups, but he does get Carolina in Week 10 who've allowed the most FPs to slow WRs in 2018, then his playoff matchups are NE and NO, NE allowing the 5th most FPs to slot WRs and NO is allowing the single most FPs overall to opposing WRs.
JuJu has majorly slowed down since the red-hot start but his production hasn't been bad. He dropped a really easy ball on Sunday that's very uncharacteristic of him and had he caught it, I think we're probably looking at another 100-yard game, which would be his second in the last three games, he just hasn't found the EZ since Week 5. He still leads the team, and is 2nd in the NFL only behind Kamara, in RZ targets (19, Brown - 13) and 10z targets (6, Brown - 5). As we know, TDs are highly volatile and hard to predict, but with this volume near the EZ, it's very hard to imagine them not starting to come back his way.
1. Kerryon Johnson - RB, Detroit Lions
As someone who loves Kerryon, and has long before the masses, this one hurts. I wish I didn't think it was a good idea to trade him, but it is.
His schedule is brutal. Chicago twice over the next two weeks who should be getting Khalil Mack back. His two easy games are Arizona and Buffalo, but both are on the road.
The other concern is obviously just him being back in a timeshare when Theo Riddick is healthy. In the six games with Riddick this season, Kerryon has played on an average 43% of the teams snaps. In the two games without him, 70%. And you would of thought that given how well he played, KJ would have gained ground, but Week 9, 39 snaps a piece, a 50/50 split. From weeks 1-5, (bye was in Week 6), KJ was running 13.4 routes/game, Riddick, 19.6. In Riddick's two games missed:....
2. Tyler Boyd - WR, Cincinnati Bengals
Honestly, I'm not positive what I want to do with Tyler Boyd. But I guess my point would be to test the waters here. People are going to be very high on Boyd ROS, given A.J. Green's injury. He's out a minimum of two weeks, just before he can get evaluated again. I think Green's return timetable would put him at Week 14 or Week 15 at the very best.
It makes me nervous for two reasons. I'm not sure what they're going to do with Boyd. He clearly becomes the best WR for the Bengals. So, if they decide to move him outside, operating as the WR1, he's going to get a lot of tough, tough matchups against opposing CB1's.
Outside of that Week 15 game against Oakland, there's not an easy matchup for Boyd on that schedule. Tbh it might be worth keeping him for just that game but. If he's pushed outside, he'll be getting Marshon Lattimore, Brandon Carr/Jimmy Smith on the road, Denzel Ward, Casey Hayward. If he's not pushed to the outside, his slot matchups aren't much better. As you can see in this chart, every team he faces off against, even Oakland is in the bottom half in terms of points allowed to slot WRs and 5-of-7 are in the bottom 12.
My concern is a bit about his matchups, but also just this offense in general. They're going to be much, much worse without Green in that lineup, who takes so much attention from this defense. So, he might be awesome going forward just given the volume, but I think it'd be smart to test the waters on Boyd's market value.
Maybe look at it this. Who would you rather have ROS, Boyd or Amari Cooper. Clear WR1s in their offense, whose offense won't be that good going forward, will have to focus on the ground game with their stud RBs and will likely be force-fed targets. I think the two of them are in similar situations tbh.
***A few others I would test the market on would be Leonard Fournette and Jordan Howard. I'm concerned Jacksonville will force him into too big of a workload too quickly, after sitting out for the majority of the season and get him re-injured. Howard is an obvious choice here, after scoring four touchdowns in their last three games, but he's been almost exclusively TD dependent for fantasy purposes.
by Nick Ercolano
November 12, 2018
by Nick Ercolano
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