Week 10 - Top Waiver Wire Pickups

by Nick Ercolano November 06, 2018

Week 10 - Top Waiver Wire Pickups

Week 9 is in the novels, so we're looking at snatching the gold mines off of the waiver wire. Let's get it. This list will only be composed of players owned in 55% or less of Yahoo leagues.

Quarterbacks 

1. Alex Smith - Washington Redskins

- Yahoo Ownership: 43%

Smith has been nothing of awful as a fantasy QB in 2018, but he's coming off of his first 300-yard game on Sunday against the Falcons and gets another ridiculously good matchup @TB who is the only team allowing more FPs to opposing QBs then Atlanta. He's also adding about 15 rushing yards/game to his stats. 

They took a few big hits on their offensive line with Brandon Scherff tearing his pec, so they'll be without him, Trent Williams, Shawn Lauvao for a while. My confidence level in Smith is almost negative, but streaming against TB seems to be a solution to any problem. They've allowed multiple passing TDs in all but one game, have one interception on the season and that came in Week 3. They've also allowed 33+ rushing yards to the QB in 3-of-5 previous games.

- Next three matchups: @TB, HOU, @DAL

- Use #1 Waiver Wire: No

- FAAB Spend: $2-3

2. Baker Mayfield - Cleveland Browns

- Yahoo Ownership: 38%

Baker's been hard to trust as a fantasy QB this year, but he has strung together three straight games with multiple passing TDs and just missed throwing for 300 on Sunday. Like Smith, Mayfield benefits from a second consecutive home game in which he'll take on the streaking Falcons whose offense is clicking on all cylinders right now. They've allowed 335+ yards through the air in 6 of their last seven games. 

Rishard Higgins is back which is a minor boost for Mayfield and the offense, lol look at me getting excited about fucking Higgins. But with new coaching in place, Duke Johnson seems to be getting more involved which will benefit this passing game.

- Next three matchups: ATL, BYE, @CIN

- Use #1 Waiver Wire: No

- FAAB Spend: $2-5

3. Nick Mullens - San Francisco 49ers

- Yahoo Ownership: 3%

Idk, stream him at your own peril. He tore up the Oakland secondary for 262 yards and 3 touchdowns on TNF. But it's Oakland, whose pass rush is less existent than _____. The 49ers get a plus matchup against the Giants as they'll have to travel cross-country to take on the Niners.

- Next three matchups: NYG, BYE, @TB

- Use #1 Waiver Wire: No

- FAAB Spend: $0-1

***Mariota vs. NE in Week 10 (26%) - on MNF

Running Backs

1. Jalen Richard/Doug Martin - Oakland Raiders

- Yahoo Ownership: 53%

Nothing about this offense intrigues me, especially after that TNF game, but both guys will continue to get work as a duo. I'd rather have Richard if I had to pick one. 

- Next three matchups: LAC, @ARZ, @BAL 

- Use #1 Waiver Wire: No

- FAAB Spend: $3-5

2. Duke Johnson - Cleveland Browns

- Yahoo Ownership: 48%

Dukie has been almost invisible up to this point in the szn, but with Huey and Haley out, Freddie Kitchens (RB coach) was promoted to OC and clearly remembers the skillset Johnson can bring to this offense. It's one that can contribute 9 catches for 78 yards and two touchdowns. He led the team in targets, receptions, yards and scores obviously, and had a 21.4% of the team's target share in this one.Duke Johnson fantasy football

Prior to this game, Duke was averaging just over 5 touches/game and hadn't had more than 6 in a single game. Apart from Week 1 in 2017, Duke had 6 or more touches in every single game.

Atlanta's up next and as we know they donate points to pass-catching RBs. Was this a flukey outlier in the tale that will eventually be Duke Johnson's 2018 campaign, or do you believe Kitchens continues to use Duke in this format? That will depend on how much FAAB you decide to drop on the Browns RB.

- Next three matchups: ATL, BYE, @CIN

- Use #1 Waiver Wire: No

- FAAB Spend: $8-10

3. Ito Smith - Atlanta Falcons

- Yahoo Ownership: 44%

Everyone on the Falcons offense ate in Week 9. Even Julio Jones got in the endzone lol. By doing simple math: everyone on the Falcons ate + Ito Smith is on the Falcons = Ito Smith ate. Smith ran the ball well, going for 60 on the ground on just 10 carries with a TD and caught 1-of-2 targets for 4 yards. Since Devonta Freeman was sent to the I.R., Smith has steadily flirted with the double-digit touch-mark each week. His fantasy production does, however, heavily depend on scoring a TD, which he's done in four of the past five games. He's currently dominating this offense with 15 RZ carries, compared to just 8 for Coleman. Both have 5 carries inside-the-10, and Coleman has one more GL carry (2) than Smith (1). It's a bit of a coin flip betting on this backfield, but they're playing extremely well right now and Smith will be a low-floor, flex play during these bye weeks. He's also arguably one of the most valuable handcuffs in fantasy football. 

- Next three matchups: @CLE, DAL, @NO

- Use #1 Waiver Wire: No

- FAAB Spend: $5-7

4. Frank Gore - Miami Dolphins

- Yahoo Ownership: 28%

Nothing about Gore would ever make me want to put him in my fantasy lineup right now, but he got 20 carries on Sunday mane. That makes six consecutive games with double-digit carries for the OG. This offense stinks. His efficiency stinks and he won't get a lot of GL looks, so it's hard to actually trust Gore whatsoever. So do with that what you please.

- Next three matchups: @GB, BYE, @IND

- Use #1 Waiver Wire: No

- FAAB Spend: $2-4

5. Mike Davis - Seattle Seahawks

- Yahoo Ownership: 24%

As been the case all szn, Davis is Carson's backup and took over as their workhorse on Sunday when Carson re-aggravated his hip/thigh injury. It's amazing that the Seahawks used a first-round pick on Rashaad Penny. Absolutely incredible! Davis ran the ball 15 times against the Chargers for 62 yards and caught seven passes for another 42 yards. The 22 touches bested the rookie by 15 (22-7). Davis has been plenty useful in Carson's absence this year, and this is his second game topping the 100-total yard mark.Mike Davis fantasy football

Seattle preached all summer about wanting to run the ball, and they have. They're currently leading the NFL with 31.8 rush attempts/game, % of plays being run (50.8% - only team in NFL over 47%), 3rd in rushing yards/game, and their offensive line which is still atrocious on the pass-blocking front, is quietly ranked 14th in RBing per FOs. They're still ranked 29th per PFF lol, but who knows.Mike Davis Rotoworld

Davis and the Seahawks will travel to LA to faceoff with the Rams for the second time in 2018. The Rams just got scorched by Kamara, a week after allowing Aaron Jones to run for 7.2 ypc and a touchdown. In their first meeting, Carson and Davis combined to rush for 184 yards and a touchdown on 31 carries (5.93 ypc). If Carson misses time, Davis will be a high-end RB2.

- Next three matchups: @LAR, GB, @CAR

- Use #1 Waiver Wire: No, Yes if Carson is out

- FAAB Spend: $10 (All if Carson misses serious time)

6. Elijah McGuire - New York Jets

- Yahoo Ownership: 14%

The second-year Jets RB, who missed the teams first 8 games due to a broken foot suffered in the summer, McGuire made his 2018 debut on Sunday, immediately slotted behind Crowell. He carried the ball 7 times for 30 yards and added 3 catches on 5 targets for another 37 yards.

And although Crowell saw 6 more carries, McGuire actually out-snapped Crowell 33-23 (55%) on Sunday.

Again, I'll echo my concern with McGuire is with the offense as a whole. There might be a few games where he's totally useless outside of full PPR leagues. They aren't scoring a lot, this offense is looking bad, and they just don't ever throw the ball to their RBs down by the EZ.

It's clear they don't have plans to slowly develop him into the gameplan, so double-digit touches should be the weekly projection for McGuire going forward.

- Next three matchups: BUF, BYE, NE

- Use #1 Waiver Wire: No

- FAAB Spend: $1-3

***Josh Adams is 10% owned and was a really popular pickup last week, thought I'd mention him again now that they're off their bye and will play Dallas at home in Week 11.

***D'Onta Foreman is expected to begin practicing this week. They have a bye, but he may return in Week 11.

***Now is probably the time to start handcuffing your top guys if you haven't already. Spence Ware for Karem Hunt. Malcolm Brown for Todd Gurley. Rod Smith for Zeke. Gio for Mixon.

Wide Receivers

1. Tyrell Williams - Los Angeles Chargers

- Yahoo Ownership: 45%

The guy just can't stop scoring. Williams only got 3 targets, and only caught 2 two of them for 23 yards on Sunday, but wouldn't you know, one of those were a touchdown. It's his 5th TD of the year and his 4th over the last three games. However, it's still really hard to trust a guy like Williams who has yet to see more than five targets in a single game and hasn't even hit that number since Week 4.

The situation reminds me a lot of Calvin Ridley earlier this year, who had that crazy TD streak over those three weeks or whatever, which ultimately blinded people to the fact that the volume wasn't really there and TDs are ridiculously volatile and impossible to predict.

He's worth looking at with Oakland next up on their schedule, though.

- Next three matchups: @OAK, DEN, ARZ 

- Use #1 Waiver Wire: No

- FAAB Spend: $3-5

2. Marquez Valdes-Scantling - Green Bay Packers

- Yahoo Ownership: 38%

MVS, who's been doing a great job filling in as Cobb and Allison take turns sidelined. With the news that Allison's injury is serious, and likely season-ending, MVS is in line to be the WR2 here in GB, yes, ahead of Cobb. He has 100+ yards in two of their last three games, catching two touchdowns over their last four, and has seen 27 targets over that span. With Cobb back at full health, MVS out-snapped him 81% to 76% on Sunday.

I like MVS, and Rodgers seems to also. It's possible MVS truly settles in as the WR2 here and takes turns with Graham as Rodgers' #2 option which can be super valuble in fantasy.

- Next three matchups: MIA, @SEA, @MIN 

- Use #1 Waiver Wire: No, unless you're very desperate at WR

- FAAB Spend: $15-20

3. Willie Snead - Baltimore Ravens

- Yahoo Ownership: 34%

He's boring, but he's scored double-digit PPR points in 7-of-9 (78%) of Raven's games, has seen 6+ targets in 8-of-9 (89%) and is averaging 9 targets/game over their last four games. He's boring, with a high-floor in PPR. 

The schedule after their Week 11 bye is really good, CIN (4th), OAK (11th), @ATL (3rd), @KC (14th), TB (2nd), @LAC (15th). (Most FPs allowed to WRs in 2018)

- Next three matchups: BYE, CIN, OAK

- Use #1 Waiver Wire: No

- FAAB Spend: $2-5

4. David Moore - Seattle Seahawks

- Yahoo Ownership: 16%

He didn't do much on Sunday, catching 2-of-7 targets for 16 yards, but the 7 targets were a season-high and an encouraging sign coming off the Brandon Marshall release. It was three more targets than any WR on the Hawks, Baldwin and Lockett both saw just 4. He leads this group in targets over the last 4 Seattle games with an 18.6% target share in the offense and he's got a ton of looks in the EZ too. He easily should have had 2 TDs on Sunday. Two went off his hands in the EZ.

- Next three matchups: @LAR, GB, @CAR

- Use #1 Waiver Wire: No

- FAAB Spend: $4-5

5. Anthony Miller - Chicago Bears

- Yahoo Ownership: 11%

Miller caught 5-of-6 targets on Sunday. What will go under-the-radar since he only had 49 scoreless yards, is that Trubisky only threw 12 passes on the day, so Miller had a 50% target share in this one. He also drew a 43-yard PI call. 

He gets Detroit next week and in Week 12. The Lions have given up a lot of FPs to WRs as of late, especially slot WRs who has scored in four straight games against them. 

Allen Robinson is banged up, missing two straight. Gabriel also left this game late with a knee injury - Nagy said it's not serious, but we'll have to see.

Miller's ceiling will continue to be lowered because of Trubisky throwing the ball.

- Next three matchups: DET, MIN, @DET

- Use #1 Waiver Wire: No

- FAAB Spend: $4-5

6. Maurice Harris - Washington Redskins

- Yahoo Ownership: 0%

Caught 10-of-12 targets on Sunday for 124 yards. Harris played his first game in Week 5, and Crowder has missed Weeks 6-9. Harris has filled in as the slot WR in Washington, running 75% of his routes from the slot. Harris had done almost nothing this year in terms of production prior to Week 9, so I'm definitely not anywhere near as excited about him as, well, anyone that is? Harris played a season-high 87% of the team's snaps on Sunday. 

Crowder was ruled out early in Week 9, so he might not be close to returning. Paul Richardson got placed on the I.R. yesterday, so there's a lot of opportunities here for Harris to make a splash.

- Next three matchups: @TB, HOU, @DAL

- Use #1 Waiver Wire: No

- FAAB Spend: $0-1

***guys I had on this list last week but were on a bye, so the analysis remains: Keke Coutee - HOU (27%), Christian Kirk - ARZ (25%), 

Tight Ends

1. Jack Doyle - Indianapolis Colts

- Yahoo Ownership: 38%

Come on now people. Y'all needed to grab him last week. He was probably dropped because of the bye, but he needs to be picked back up.

- Next three matchups: JAX, TEN, MIA

- Use #1 Waiver Wire: No

- FAAB Spend: $10

2. C.J. Uzomah - Cincinnati Bengals

- Yahoo Ownership: 38%

A.J. Green is going to miss time. How much? Anyone's guess. But it could be longterm and that is an uptick to everyone in this offense. 

- Next three matchups: NO, @BAL, CLE

- Use #1 Waiver Wire: No

- FAAB Spend: $0-2

3. Chris Herndon - New York Jets

- Yahoo Ownership: 14%

Prior to Sunday where we saw the Jets rookie TE Herndon set a career-high in yards (62) and matched a season-high with 4 catches, Herndon had caught a TD in three straight games. He led the team in receptions and yards and seems to be developing a strong chemistry with Darnold. 

Over this span, from Weeks 6-9, Herndon is TE6 in fantasy behind Kelce, Howard, Kittle, Burton & Olsen.

He's not that exciting because most of his production has been straight TD dependency, but the big game on Sunday was a welcoming sight and he's someone to keep a close eye on with a home game against Buffalo next up before their bye in Week 11.

- Next three matchups: BUF, BYE, NE

- Use #1 Waiver Wire: No

- FAAB Spend: $0-1

4. Jeff Heuerman - Denver Broncos

- Yahoo Ownership: 1%

Jeff Heuerman fantasy

- Next three matchups: BYE, @LAC, PIT

- Use #1 Waiver Wire: No

- FAAB Spend: $2-5

D/ST

Try to look for:

1. Favorites (most important),

2. Playing at home

3. With a low over/under total.

1. Los Angeles Chargers @ Oakland Raiders

- Yahoo Ownership: 52%

- Point Spread: -10

- Over/Under: 50.5

2. New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills

- Yahoo Ownership: 37%

- Point Spread: -7.5

- Over/Under: 37

3. Green Bay Packers vs. Miami Dolphins

- Yahoo Ownership: 21%

- Point Spread: -8.5

- Over/Under: 47.5

4. San Francisco 9ers vs. New York Giants

- Yahoo Ownership: 20%

- Point Spread: -3

- Over/Under: 43.5



Nick Ercolano
Nick Ercolano

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