The RB1 Case for JK Dobbins in 2021

The RB1 Case for JK Dobbins in 2021

JK Dobbins - Ravens

RB17 - 30.5 Overall

He's the best running back in a really good run offense, it's that simple.

He's down at 13/14 because his ceiling is capped with Gus Edwards having a major role in the offense. 

But he could very well have a Mark Ingram 2019 type year. High efficiency, 5.0ypc averaging between 12-15 carries/game, not seeing much in the passing game, as expected, but scoring a ton of TDs. Dobbins was great on the GL last year.

Dobbins was one of the most efficient backs in the NFL last year, I'd expect that to happen again. We've seen it with basically every running back that runs behind Lamar Jackson. Ingram, Gus, Dobbins.

You might think of Gus as the GL back bc he's big, but over the 2H of last year, Dobbins out-carried Gus on the GL 7-4. Gus scored just once on those 4 carries, Dobbins scored 6 of 7 times. Insanity.

Dobbins is another floor play at the position, that could be really good if he gets some TD luck this year. Over the last two seasons, with Lamar under center, RBs in Baltimore have scored 38 touchdowns, 19/season. We could see Dobbins score 11 and Gus with 8, something like that.

The problem of course is in the receiving game. Lamar Jacksons is notorious for not throwing to his running backs. When Dobbins like really broke out last year, last 6 weeks of the season, Weeks 11-17, guy scores 7 times in 6 weeks, he saw a total of 4 targets. Like that is a BIG problem. He had a single game over 15.5 half ppr fantasy points last year. Think about that, he had a streak of 7 TDs in 6 games, and in only one game he topped 15.5 FPs. That's what we mean by floor, sure he was around like 12-15 in all of them, but not catching passes kills the upside, in the same way Derrick Henry can't be discussed in the CMac/Cook tier, and you probably can't put Chubb in the Saquon, Kamara, Zeke tier, its tough to love Dobbins's upside until we see pass-catching and I'm not going to assume it magically happens this with no logical big facts to back it up.

 

Jerry Jeudy - Broncos

WR34 | 76th

Jeudy is such a tough evaluation for fantasy this year. We're going to fixate on those 113 targets from his rookie season. Is it impressive? For sure. If like Bryan Edwards commanded 113 targets last year, we'd be losing our shit. Those 113 targets were 22nd most by a rookie since 2000.

So, I'm trying to just tell myself, don't think too hard about this one - the fact that you can get Jeudy at somewhat of discount with these numbers that he posted as a rookie, because everyone else in the class was so good, like just dont think too hard about this one.

The year would've been much much bigger if there was some more touch from Drew Lock on literally any of his passes. Jeudy ranked 6th in the NFL in air yards last year, but 2nd in unrealized air yards. You know why there was that discrepancy, because:

"No receiver had a higher rate of their targets result in a quarterback-fault incompletion this season than the rookie. The Alabama product also racked up the most targets on which he created separation that resulted in a quarterback-fault incompletion. BUT According to Pro Football Focus, Jeudy only caught 76.5% of his catchable targets, the worst mark in the NFL."

So, Sutton comes byke and we assume it caps his ceiling. It might. As a 7th round pick, I'm not expecting WR1 numbers in fantasy. They're too drastically different players. And we do like to draft players 2 YEARS REMOVED from the ACL tear, not one, but Sutton is young and it happened super early in the season, so I'm not as concerned with the rehab. But it's possible we don't actually get Sutton at full strength and 2022 we get WR1 Sutton, leaving it open for Jeudy in redraft.

The big change for Denver could be at the QB position. Where they bring in Teddy Bridgewater. Obviously if Aaron Rodgers or Deshaun Watson winds up here he's going to be a 4th round pick or some shit. But Teddy B, I like that a ton for Jeudy. What's better for Teddy than a guy that gets open quickly:

31.3% from the slot. Have to wonder if that changes at all in 2021 with Sutton byke. More slot snaps would be great if Teddy is under center. I'd still like to see him play a bit closer to the line of scrimmage sometimes, get him easy throws, let him work with his YAC because he's nice with it - top 20 in the NFL despite being top 20 in aDOT. 

He's exactly what we thought he was coming out of Bama, already cementing himself as one of the top route runners in the game.

Jeudy is a guy I'll definitely be buying shares of this year.

 


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