The RB to Own in Baltimore's Backfield? Q&A Mondaaaaaaaaaaaaay

by Nick Ercolano May 25, 2020

The RB to Own in Baltimore's Backfield? Q&A Mondaaaaaaaaaaaaay

 

That's a good question. I see that it worries you, being a Browns fan, and being in the division you want to know what you're up against.

Looking back at 2019, Ingram played on about 49% of their offensive snaps, Gus Edwards 35% and Justice Hill about 16%. 

Dobbins makes both Gus and Hill redundant. Dobbins is Hill, but upgraded all around and bigger. If Edwards still gets snaps it'll be at the expense of Ingram. It's hard to imagine Dobbins getting serious enough work to warrant a huge fantasy impact this year, but let's not forget this is one of the best coaching staffs in the league. They're a good team and a good franchise for a reason. And usually, playing your best players fits into that equation somewhere.

Since Lamar was drafted, this team has done nothing but attempt to bring speed onto the field. Not all of the pieces hit, but Hollywood, Justice Hill, Miles Boykin, now J.K. Dobbins, Devin Duvernay (4.39 - 40), Mark Andrews. So, I think Dobbins makes sense as a perfect match for the offense, that adds an element of home-run ability they didn't have last year. He also immediately becomes the best pass-catching back in their backfield.

In terms of actual usage, I think it's less important what the snap split is and more important to think about what type of touches these guys are gonna get.

"Baltimore’s 527 designed runs in 2019 were 66 more than any other team, and even if you filter out those that went to Lamar Jackson, their running backs still ranked sixth with 392 carries." (PFF)

So, lots of carries to go around. I think Within a few weeks we'll see Ingram/Dobbins splitting snaps like 45/45 (10% to the others), maybe a slight edge to Ingram. 

The Ravens have no incentive to use Dobbins over Ingram down by the GL. Only Aaron Jones, Zeke and Dalvin Cook converted their GL rushes into TDs at a higher rate. Dobbins might get a few, but idt it'll be more than maybe 3. 

The receiving game, where want to see him shine - it's just not what Lamar does. He doesn't throw to running backs. Only three teams (15%) targeted their RBs at a lower rate last year.

The rate is low, and because they're an extremely low-volume pass offense to begin with, the raw totals are really low.

All-in-all, it feels to me like a backfield I'm going to avoid in redraft, or at least look at as a trade target piece later on in the season. Maybe a situation similar to Philly last year, between Howard and Sanders.

So, Dobbins is most talented, but there's no doubt he's splitting work with Ingram in year one - and probably on the lesser side of the value of the touches.



Hello Mr. Codeine. 

It's hard to say that one singular piece really moves the needle for a QB in dynasty, at least without a solidified group already around him, which Wentz does have.

While I like Reagor a lot, I feel like Wentz dynasty value hinges on a bunch of other things outside of just him. What does Philly have behind him at WR? Almost nothing. Maybe they can squeeze out 26 games between D-Jax and Jeffery this year, but idk.

His own health is worrisome, along with the drafting of Jalen Hurts. So by the time, Jalen Reagor establishes himself as a WR in the NFL that can actually change the fantasy outlook of a QB, is Wentz healthy, is Jalen Hurts competing for the job? 

So overall Wentz is a very risky, but very high ceiling dynasty asset right now (in Superflex) - I tend to stay away from those types of guys, just not my style. The drafting of Reagor makes me feel a bit better obviously, but it's like trying to wrap an entire gift with one piece of tape. He ain't gonna get the whole job done.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Although you didn't use 13 A's I will still answer your question.

And it's actually a fantastic question. Understanding QB situations and contracts is one of the very, very sharp edges you can give yourself in dynasty leagues. Almost no one really dives deep enough into this to draft the right stashes on their roster.

But, being ahead of the curve gets you guys like Gardner Minshew, Jacoby Brissett, and by no means are those guys league winners - but getting a starting QB off the wire in a dynasty superflex league is like finding fucking gold - and if you're in a dynasty SF league - you know this to be true. So, even if you don't want that player, or he's your QB5 or some shit - sell him for a future rookie pick early 2nd, late 1st - someone needs another QB.

On gawd, Jeff Driskel helped me get into the playoffs in one of my dynasty leagues last year.

Now, there are the obvious ones like yeah Marcus Mariota to the Derek Carr's but that doesn't help anyone, everyone knows that and you can't get him off the wire or buy for little-to-nothing in SF leagues.

When you're looking at handcuffing QBs, there are two things to look at.

1. QBs who are on one-year contracts (or have an easy-team out after the year)

2. QBs who just aren't good and have a chance of being replaced.



Nick Ercolano
Nick Ercolano

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