Breakout Tight Ends & Rookie Running Back Values

Breakout Tight Ends & Rookie Running Back Values

Q&A Monday

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Question 1

 

 

My idea on stacking teammates is simple - I'm fine with it. RB and WR, QB & TE, TE and WR - as long as they're on a good team and it makes sense value-wise. For season-long leagues, I don't target teammate stacks, but I don't avoid them either. The more question marks surrounding the offense, however, the less enticed I am to stack players because all players on an offense inadvertently impact other players on that offense. If a WR is having a huge game, it likely means the team is pushing the ball downfield, getting more scoring opportunities which in a general sense is going to be good for the running back, at a very basic level.

Stacking puts you at increased risk - if you draft a QB and a WR and either one of them gets hurt, or flames out, or busts, whatever - both of them are severely impacted - so instead of just a single player needing replacement, now, maybe 20-25% of your lineup is in shambles.

However, I think it also depends on the type of league you're playing in. In a typical fantasy football league, there's 12 guys, you have a 1-in-12 chance of winning. Playing safe, and playing with floor in mind isn't going to win you championships. Stacks increase the ceiling you have in any given week. And since the odds are stacked against you to being with, the only thing that will get you to the championship is ceiling, a very good team. You need to beat 11 other teams. 

So, again, there are pros and cons, but I'm not for or against it and I don't believe owning two players on the same team limits an individuals ceiling, bc as I said, the better one player does, the better the team's offense generally does, which carries over to the second player on that offense. I'm okay doing it if the offense is high-powered, you're getting them at good values in the draft, but if it's a shitty offense, stay away from stacking.

 

Other question - If you're going to draft Hayden Hurst should you double down - yeah I've come around to the idea of rostering two tight ends, if you miss out on an upper-echelon guy. Noah Fant, Jonnu Smith, guys like that. There's almost nothing worse than not having a solid producer at TE in your fantasy lineup. 

Thinking back to the 5 money leagues I played in last year - made it to the championship game in 4 of them. Among the teams that made it for me - two of them were starting Zach Ertz, one Travis Kelce, the other had Austin Hooper for when he was good - but ironically, as you stated, I actually drafted Vance McDonald first, in like the 8th round and then Austin Hooper two rounds later as my original backup. The one league I didn't make the chip I had Evan Engram and he got hurt obviously.

Obviously, a small sample size, but most teams that have a sturdy TE have a sturdy lineup. It's not like QB, where you can pick up a solid player at any time off the wire (assuming it's 1QB), the wire is bare, the possible breakout guys are already drafted, so make sure you give yourself double the opportunity.

As for the specific tight ends I like, y'all will have to go check out my rankings in the draft guide, which officially launches one month from today, July 1. 

Realistically, I think any pairing of the following make sense: Hayden Hurst, Jonnu Smith, Noah Fant, Ian Thomas, Hockenson, Gesicki, Hooper, Goedert. Goddamn, the TE landscape actually feels as deep as it's been in years. So yeah, the fact that is deep with guys with big upside, and most of them will flop, I'm perfectly fine grabbing two.

Question 2

... 13 riding bikes around

- infatuated with building things over the long-term (playing madden love franchise mode vs. online)

- But to keep it real with you guys, I'm not in love with fantasy football anymore, I'm obsessed with building, branding, marketing and building a business. Fantasy football, I understand is the thing that allows me to build a business

 

 

Question 3

Keeper questions are always hard to answer because so much context goes into it, and each is different from league to league.

So, our choices are:

Cook in the 2nd,

Jacobs in the 4th

Singletary in the 14th

So, I'll start off immediately by taking Singletary out of the running. Idc about value, I want the best players on my team. Value, not value, keeper, dynasty, whatever. Upside is what wins you a league - something Singletary doesn't have.

So, of course everyone wants Cook over Jacobs straight up, but with Jacobs you're getting to keep your second pick. The other big thing to note here is that it's a standard league, which favors Jacobs. The worry with Jacobs going into 2020 is whether or not he sees adequate passing work. In this scenario, it's not a huge deal.

If Jacobs stays healthy, he'll have more carries and rushing yards than Cook, I'm pretty confident in saying that. Total yardage is up in the air, according to PointsBet Cook's over/under is set at 1550.5 and Jacobs is at 1575.5. Yardage and TDs are the only thing that matter in standard scoring.

How I think you really need to look at it is what combination do you like more on your team, given the pick you're getting back.

Josh Jacobs and (and this is where you'll have to do some research on your league, see who each league member is keeping), but something like

  • Jacobs + Chubb
  • Jacobs + Julio
  • Jacobs + Hill

or

  • Cook + Chris Carson
  • Cook + Thielen
  • Cook + Sutton
  • Cook + AJ Brown

For me it's definitely the former, so I'm gonna go with Jacobs for the fact that we're string into the face of a massive 2nd year breakout and the extra two rounds is big in redraft.

 

Question 4

That's a good question. My initial thought on this is actually to the contrary, that rookie RBs are undervalued in redraft because people will tend to rank them next to players who have similar outlooks, but take the guy who's "done it before". But I wanted to dive a bit deeper and see what the numbers actually say.

So, I looked at the top five rookie running backs over the last five years, per their ADP in drafts and wanted to see how they finished that year.

Patreon Questions

 

 

Shit I'll play a damn QB in a movie and become more famous than that player. I'll be the next Willie Beaman, Nickie Beaman.


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