by Nick Ercolano
August 15, 2020
I will not be wrong about David Johnson. I will not be wrong about Todd Gurley. But I could be wrong about Fournette.
My point is this. Fournette could be in store for a lot of touches. He had 341 last year. A non-efficient 341 touches, and a lot were non-valuable, but nonetheless, it's a lot of fuckin touches.
The reason I don't want Fournette is that we all want to talk about how his TD numbers are going to go up, but this Jacksonville offense isn't one that gives RBs tons of GL looks.
He had 8 last year.
Now, this is where people go nuts about regression. Well, their offense is going to be better. Their o-line is going to be better. Why?
You understand that if their offensive line goes from (25th PFF, 26th FOs) to 23rd, 22nd, it's not going to move the needle for Fournette. They could also not get better. They took one o-line draft pick - in the 4th round - who is slated to be the starting RG here.. Like the unwarranted optimism on EVERYTHING in fantasy football is real.
Jay Gruden coming, personally bringing Chris Thompson with him is going to suck away targets from Fournette as is the Laviska Shenault draft pick.
That being said, there's no one actually talented enough to take touches away. Like even if they brought in anything through FA, but they didn't. It's only Ryquell Armstead.
Situation almost always caps RB ceilings - what I think you're getting is a pure volume play in Fournette in the 3rd round, but maybe he breaks an extra big play or two this year. One or two extra TDs and you're looking at a return on your 3rd round investment.
This is just one the industry in itself could be wrong on. As soon as he went to Buffalo, his ADP dropped like 30 picks.
Why? Because this is a run-first team (ranked 26th in passing rate last year, they were 29th the year prior, this is a Sean McDermott team thing), who just drafted another thumper in Zack Moss to keep that trend going, and a team with a wildly inaccurate deep passer, where Stefon Diggs excels.
However, this is the first time that Diggs actually gets to operate as the alpha in a passing offense. The Bills traded four picks for Diggs, including this year's 1st. That tells you that they think Diggs was the piece they needed to take that next step - win that playoff game - and make a real Superbowl run.
Diggs is about, in a vacuum, as good of a pure WR, route-running all that stuff included as just about anyone in the NFL.
Last year, a 29-year-old John Brown saw 115 targets and set a career-high with 1060 receiving yards. If he can do that, I'm pretty it's not out of the range of outcomes for Diggs. He's currently the WR26 - 6th/7th round pick. He has a solid floor, not great but solid and I think an underrate ceiling - wouldn't surprise me to see this team completely scheme around Diggs in the passing game and him to flirt with 120-130 targets. In that case, we're all gonna look pretty dumb.
Idk, Idrc tbh - I'm just not a fan of drafting players out of their prime that we haven't seen do it for a full season in like 9 years. Save your PPG bullshit - talent is a skill, but durability is too.
But, last year y'all know no one was fading AJ Green harder than myself. I literally predicted that he wasn't going to play in 2019 byke in March. I'm higher on him this year than I was last year.
I can confidently, finally, after like 19 months say AJ Green is actually healthy. Last year we knew the timetable for his foot injury was fucked going into the season, all people said was nah he'll be 100% by camp, by Week 1 - it's like nah fam we literally have the science that tells us he won't be.
Not the case this time around - it's just that we haven't seen him on the field in a while.
There's like a 10% chance we see vintage Green in 2020 - with a QB like Burrow, magic could happen. I'm not drafting him - but there's an outcome where he finishes top-15.
I'm not straight-up fading Kupp, but you're oging to have to choose between he and Woods and I've pitched my tent in the forest on this one.
Well, the number one factor that I can inlc
Go to PlayerProfiler Advanced Game Log
Maybe this Rams o-line isn't dreadful again - maybe they don't use 12 personnel and Kupp is back to playing 70-80% of his routes from the slot.
But what I think might be most important, underrated and not talked about enough is Kupp being 2 years removed from the ACL tear - we talk about this often. You want a player who's two years removed, not one. They're back at full strength both mentally and physically now. And if we're being objective this is a huge plus for Kupp. It's why we loved Dalvin Cook, Deshaun Watson, Allen Robinson.
The chemistry is also undeniable from Goff to Kupp. Especially near the EZ. Even when Kupp saw limited playtime down the stretch, the man still wrapped up the season with five straight games scoring a TD. Four of those 5 came from within the 10-yard line - he's Goff's go-to down there.
Listen, I'm sorry but Gesiciki is just not good on the football field. But we talk about injury optimism and it's hard af to be optimistic about Preston Williams and that ACL right now. Reports are not good that he's gonna be back at full strength or even open the season ready to roll. Midway through August that's all I need to hear. This is going to make the Miami passing game a replica of what we saw over the 2H of last year. So, while Gesicki is literally and opposite of elite in terms of explosive plays, yards per reception and YAC, the volume is going to be there. The second half of last year, Gesicki averaged over 7 targets/game which is biggg numbers for a late-round fantasy TE. Ertz, Hunter Henry both guys that have shown you can be a big time fantasy TE without being a playmaker with the ball in your hands. With Preston W on the mend, Gesicki could crest 100 targets without a problem, something only Kelce, Ertz, Waller and Kittle did last year.
So, for me, this entirely hinges on the Preston Williams' status, and right now it's not looking good.
by Nick Ercolano
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