NFL Trade Deadline | 2017 Fantasy Football Impact

by Nick Ercolano October 31, 2017

NFL Trade Deadline | 2017 Fantasy Football Impact

1. Jimmy Garrappallo to the 49ers

  • For 2018 2nd Round pick.
  • Not active Week 9, Beathard will start still.
  • Also, remember how complex this Shanahan offense is. Matt Ryan said it took him almost the full first year to learn it, before they really turned it on last year.
  • So, Garrap will probably need two weeks or so before he's thrown into the fire. 
  • And when he is, it's not like he has the whole Shanahan playbook.
  • In those two weeks he played during Brady sspn, Garrap went 42/60 for 498 yards and 4:0 TD-to-INT ratio. 8.4 yards per attempt - Hoyer was at 5.6 this year. What I want to look at is where most of Garrapp throws went - Edelman has 17 targets, Martellus Bennet 2nd with 10, Hogan /J. White both had 9, Amendola /Mitchell 8 and 7. So he's spreading the ball around, very much a product of that NE system. 
  • I'm not sure it's a big change for anything in this offense for fantasy purposes.
  • They get the Cardinals this week, already ruled out, then the Giants in Week 10, maybe they'll throw him in for that game, but they get a bye in Week 11, so they might wait on that and let him finish the szn over the L6 games versus SEA, @CHI, @HOU, TEN, JAX, @LAR. 
  • "It’s also worth noting that three of the 49ers’ final four opponents through the fantasy playoffs are currently ranked inside the top-six in PFF pass coverage grade." - Per PFF Mike Castiglione.
  • He should definitely be added in 2QB leagues, i'm probably staying away in any 1QB league however.

2. Jay Ajayi traded to PHI

  • I really promise you I don't think he's better than Blount this year. I get it, the offense is bad, the line is bad in MIA, but have you watched him run? He doesn't looked good, very little explosion most of the time, lot of holes he's missing out on.
  • 4th Round pick people, it's not a blockbuster by any means. Interesting theory, trading for him to cock-block Jerry Jones. I feel like Jerry would've given a 4th round for this.
  • He ranks 20th in elusive rating with a score of 43.7 and has forced just 23 missed tackles after seven games while averaging 2.77 yards after contact, which is good for 16th among running backs. (per PFF - Zoltan Buday)
  • Blount has been very good on the other hand.
  • LeGarrette Blount is averaging 4.7 YPC this season, including an NFL-best 2.9 after initial contact (min. 80 carries).
  • Blount first in the NFL elusive rating, 2nd in yards after contact, and 3rd in tackles alluded.
  • This leaves 5 RBs on their roster right now, Ajayi, Blount, Corey Clement, Wendell Smallwood and Kenjon Barner - Barner is their return guy so maybe they cut Clement.
  • The line situation is where the discrepancy gets big between the 2 teams.
  • Jay Ajayi is moving from PFF's 30th-graded run blocking team to the seventh. But Football Outsiders have the Eagles ranked 21st, to Miami's 28th and Jason Peters is now gone for the szn, he was the #3 overall rated tackle by PFF.
  • Here's an interesting tweet for Graham Barfield:
  • Think that has more to do with the personnel they have then Pederson but it's worth noting, he likes to use a committee.
  • Per PFR - Blount is 3rd in the NFL with 8 rushes inside the 5 yard line, converted 1 into TD, Ajayi has 0 attempts. In 2016 - Ajayi converted 5 of 7 rushes inside the 5 into TDs, great conversion %. 
  • On the year Ajayi has 14 receptions through 7 games, Blount has just 4. It's possible they let Ajayi take some of the pass-catching role, he proved he could do it in college, catching 50 passes for 535 yards and 4 touchdowns in his last year at Boise State, but he hasn't translated it into the NFL, averaging just 6.3 yards per reception with a catch % outside of the top-40 among RBs both this year and last year.
  • But, Ajayi automatically becomes Philly's best pass-blocking RB, which is huge for him staying on the field and with them losing Jason Peters at tackle.
  • The question becomes this: do you think the increase in efficiency (team, o-line, etc) and possible goal-line opportunities outweigh the dip in volume that's coming for Ajayi.
  • Philly is 4th in the NFL, averaging 29 points per game, MIA is dead last with 13.1 PPG. Philly is averaging the 4th most rush attempts per game, 30.8. Miami 22nd with 24 APG.
  • It looks really, really good from a birds-eye view. But I still will have my hesitations on Ajayi in Philly. There's no way they cut out Blount after how well he's been doing. He's been inconsistent, so it's very possible they ride the hot hand. After all, they gave up just a 4th round pick so it's kind of throw it against the wall and see if it sticks here.
  • They're schedule goes against Denver, the worst defense to go against for fantasy RBs and then they get a bye, so that's almost 2 unusable weeks for Ajayi. Then it's the Bears (3.9 ypc), @SEA, @LAR, @NYG all very beatable on the ground vs Raiders in Week 16.
  • So where does that lead the MIA backfield, there's two guys, well, three if you include Senorise Penny, who I'm sure will somehow win the job and fantasy leagues alike because that's how fantasy football works.
  • Kenyan Drake (6-1, 210) 3rd pick out of Alabama, Adam Gase took him. Gase called hi the #2 RB on the team earlier this month so you can probably look no further than that. Look at their last game, the blowout loss to BAL 40-0 he was the only other back besides Ajayi to get a carry, had 6 for 22. Drake has 4.45 speed, good build, decent athletic profile. He played 4 years at Alabama but never had more than 92 carries in a season, was always behind better backs in Tuscaloosa. He did catch 29 balls for 276 yards his senior year, so he can catch. Last year he didn't get a single carry inside the 5-yard line though. 
  • Damien Williams is the other guy. 5-11, 225 from Oklahoma, undrafted FA, 25 years old. Career 3.4 YPC guy, Also 4.45 speed like Drake. Where it becomes interesting is the pass-catching and the goal-line. Williams has had 21, 21 and 23 catches over the last 3 years and he scored 3 receiving TDs last year. He also had 6 goal-line carries last season, compared to Drake's 0. 
  • Neither back has gotten barely any play times in 2017, Wiliams with 12 carries for 35 yards on the year and Drake with 10 for 25. Williams separates himself in receiving where he's caught 8 passes for 50 yards while Drake just 3 catches on 5 targets for 7 yards.
  • Unless they go out and sign another RB, it'll be a committee with Drake on early downs and Williams catching the ball. Again, remember, the Dolphins o-line is really bad, they're scoring 13 points a game, you shouldn't be getting too excited about either of them, but Kenyan Drake is the guy I'd want. I'd probably let someone else spend the money.

3. Ezekiel Elliott 6-Game SSPN Back

  • I think?
  • Jerry Jones says Alfred Morris is the RB1 right now and this is confirmed by a report that came out a couple of weeks ago that the OC Scott Linehan also said they've been preparing Morris for that RB1 role. But DMC and Rod Smith will factor in as well most definitely. McFadden has been a healthy scratch for everyone of Dallas' games this year, but Jerry likes him and he's been used in the workhorse role for Dallas.
  • On the season, Morris has out-carried Smith 13-10, out-rushing him 105-69, both have a ridiculously high ypc average on a tiny sample, 8.1 and 6.9. Alf had that 70 yards run in Week 4 which obviously boosts everything. Last year, on 69 carries send it, Morris averaged 3.5 ypc. 
  • Over the next 6 games, the Cowboys get KC (22), @ATL (7), PHI (28), LAC (6), WAS (19), @NYG (18) before Zeke returns against OAK in Week 15. In parenthesis are RB ranks in terms of FP against these defenses. The Dallas o-line has certainly come into its own though, after a lot of talk about losing two lineman this year and a shaky start for Zeke, they're 6th in the NFL in RB and 3rd in PB per Football Outsiders.
  • I'd be straight up lying to you guys if I said I had any idea what was going to happen here. I don't do that to big dog country. My advice, what I'm doing, I'll be a waiver in on all 3 guys in all my leagues, for FAAB I want the guys that's the cheapest. 
  • My advice, let someone else blow FAAB and take the cheapest of the 3 if possible. I'm targeting Alf in any league type, but wouldn't be mad if I landed DMC on the low. Alf will get the first crack but I doubt he'll be on a long leash.

4. Duane Brown traded to Seattle

  • For Jeremy Lane (CB), 2018 5th round pick, 2019 2nd round pick.
  • Huge boost to this o-line. Ranked 29th in pass-blocking per PFF, 27th overall. Per Football Outsiders they actually had them graded a little higher, 25th in run but 19th in pass. Overall a big upgrade.
  • He'll replace Rees Odhiambo who was literally the lowest grade tackle in the NFL per PFF.
  • On 428 pass-block snaps in 2016, Brown let up a single sack on his way to putting up his eighth consecutive season being ranked in the top-20 at his position per PFF.
  • Obviously it's not great for HOU, but Watson's been doing it all year w/o him, Sunday vs. Seattle was the first game with him in 2017.

 

Other Players We're Hearing Trade Rumors About

  • Frank Gore - Has to be with a contender with no run game. No reason to trade for a 34-year old on his way out. I was thinking WAS (4-2) with Kelley always banged up and Perine just trash. Oakland with Lynch playing poorly, think it might be redundant there though. Maybe CAR, he would be an upgrade over Stewart imo. Still would be very surprised if they let him go. Clearly they don't want to rely on Marlon Mack and that's all they'd have.
  • Jarvis Landry - Think it would make sense for NE, SEA, ATL, NYG?? Reunite with NYG?
  • Vontae Davis - currently the 98th graded CB per PFF out of 114. Change of scenery did him wonders once, could it happen again?
  • Martavis Bryant - Maybe Washington? - Lot of craziness with MB in Pitt, but reports say that he's already back in the Steelers gameplan for Week 10, might just be a lot of noise.
  • Donte Moncreif - Maybe Washington? 
  • DeMarco Murray - Could we see a possible reunion in Dallas?
  • Josh Gordon - In NYC Tuesday, meeting w/ NFL rep, Adam Schefter said Browns could trade his rights before 4PM. 


Nick Ercolano
Nick Ercolano

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