Okay, so the Bell saga is finally done!
Bell inks a four-year, $52.5 million contract, $35 million guaranteed, making him the 2nd highest paid RB in the league between Gurley and David Johnson.
I know a lot of y'all are going to come into this video with a bunch of bias, and regardless of any big facts I lay out you're gonna go in the comment section and say you dumb asshole, Bell is a top-5 back with all the volume he's going to get.
My first thought is, I will be staying FAR away from Le'Veon Bell if he's getting picked anywhere near the first round. The reason Bell has been just so good in fantasy is because of his massive receiving totals. He's never had double-digit rushing TD totals in his 5-year career, he's had more than 8 once. BUT he's averaged over the 5 receptions/game on his career, if you exclude his rookie season it's up around 5.5. In his final season playing for the Steelers, Bell caught more than 5 passes in a game 5 separate times, 6 if you include their playoff game.
Using Sharp Football Stats, Miami's success rate when throwing to running backs ranked 26th in 2016 with a 38% success rate, 29th in 2017 at 39%, and improved up to 15th in 2018 but still nothing to ride home about, more bad then good. Miami's defense ranked 28th or worse in PPG, YPD, T.O.P. drive in all three years under Gase.
Bell commanded workhorse money, and it's possible that he makes these numbers irrelevant, but do you know what also matters for running backs, ESPECIALLY if they're not catching that many passes - their offensive line. Last year, the Jets line were dead last per FO's in RBing, and 30th per PFF in RBing.
They got LG KELECHI OSEMELE from the Raiders in a trade last week - 61st overall Guard per PFF, overall definitely not great. That's concern number two. It's just a bad offense, with a bad o-line and a bad HC who has no idea how to use running backs. He wouldn't commit to Kenyan Drake last year, he had absolutely 0 fucking idea that Damien Williams was in his backfield, who's going to end up being a stud in Kansas City. Sure the volume is going to be there, but Bell has nowhere near the upside he enjoyed in Steeler yellow.
Bell sits firmly as my RB11 in my 0.5 PPR rankings, after Nick Chubb but before Damien Williams, he's in the same tier as them, as with Joe Mixon, Dalvin Cook and Marlon Mack. If you want all of my rankings, standard, 0.5 PPR, full PPR, broken down by tiers - if you think this info is good, wait on the draft guide my friends!