2021 NFL Free Agency Recap || Fantasy Football
Andy Dalton - Chicago Bears
Love this. Nick Foles wins the starting job again, leaving people optimistic. OR. Dalton wins and people say THIS, no THIS is the best QB Allen Robinson has ever played with.
That's what going to happen. Basically doesn't move the needle whatsoever for me in fantasy. Maybe like a little blow of wind on the needle. Like Im trying to piss my dog off pheww
Curtis Samuel - Washington
Like, I get it. But didn't we just get three year of Curtis Samuel being not utilized creatively at all under Ron Rivera in Carolina.
Are we acting like we would have been pumped for Samuel if Rivera stayed in Carolina last year, but now we're going to be?
Samuel had 41 rush attempts (led all WRs in NFL) in 15 games last year. Stacked on a nice 200 yards to go over 1050 yfs. In the previous three years, Samuel had 31 rush attempts combined under Rivera in 37 games.
If you believe Samuel is a great WR, cool. But if you're like yeah he's so versatile -- like it's fucking Ron vanilla Rivera out here my guys. He's a WR3 that'll have his games, but I'm not drafting him as the WR24 or whatever he finished as last year. Just not doing it
We need underdog Fitzpatrick, not going into the year Fitz.
Emmanuel Sanders - Buffalo Bills
Nice fit for the offense. They lose John Brown and Sanders steps into a committee at WR2 behind Diggs that's going to be really messy for season-long behind Diggs. Obviously you want Gabriel Davis in dynasty, but we can't act like this doesn't hurt both Davis and and Beasley.
Beasley was the slot guy for Buff last year, running 88.2% of his routes there.
Marvin Jones - Jacksonville Jaguars
I was saying I think the Jags sign Breshad Perriman, so I guess the fit makes sense. Similar players --- also similar to D.J. Chark.
Jones follows OC Darrell Bevell over there, so there's some synchronicity already built in. Regardless it makes it difficult to buy-in to any of these guys now with a crowded receiver group b/w Chark, Viska and and Jones, even with TLaw coming to town. Chark and Viska are upside WR3s in drafts, Jones isn't really a guy im targeting at all, but is a nice piece for the offense and might be worth drafting if he's going 5-6 rounds after Chark and Viska.
Over the last two years in Bevell's offense, Jones has had
2020: 21% target share, 30% air yard share
2019: 20.2% target share
Maybe Jones and Chark dont finish very far off statistically by year's end.
As for Viska, I mean, I have a bit of trouble thinking about his upside in 2021 to be honest. He's still very much a hold in dynasty of course, in an ascending offense with TLaw coming in.
John Brown - Las Vegas Raiders
Pretty fuckin annoying tbh. He's somehow gonna have 750 yards and disrupt Edwards and Ruggs' development.
A.J. Green - Arizona Cardinals
Tbh could not care less about this.
Jamaal Williams - Detroit Lions
He'll be the backup to Swift.
Swift had 171 opportunities last year in 13 games (13.2), so around 210 over 16 games. We need that number to be in the 265-285 range if we want Swift to hit his ceiling.
Last year AP saw 168 opps, 10.5/game, 13.3 in the games Swift missed (3 games). Kerryon saw 78 opps.
Something's gotta give here. And I think it's going to be in Swift's favor:
You look at when the Lions lets go of Matt Patricia, the last four weeks of the season Swift overtook the backfield from AP averaging 15.5 opps/game compared to 5.5/game for AP.
J-Willy is good, and will get some work obviously, but I think the more likely scenario is we see Swift in the 16-18 opportunity/game role which will land him in the 260-290 opp role. A lot of them coming by way of the air.
It definitely makes things dicey, and it probably secures Swift's ceiling being a bit lower than we wanted, so there's risk involved bc we want league winning RBs in the early 2nd round.
Marlon Mack - Indy
Brutally low contract for a guy who def deserved more coming off a torn achilles. He's not going to do anything besides be an upgraded version of Jordan Wilkins as a breather back to Jonathan Taylor.
Mike Boone - Denver Broncos
It's interesting only now bc the Broncos have rescinded their tender on Philip Lindsay, so he'll walk. Royce Freeman is still under contract unfortunately, but maybe that protects Gordon and now Boone from them drafting a running back.
Gordon is a really good value right now in drafts going off the board like 64th overall per Underdog Fantasy.
Gerald Everett - Seattle Seahawks
Greg Olsen gone. Jacob Hollister gone. Will Dissly is still signed here, and they have last year's pick Colby Parkinson who's whatever.
Everett has increased his targets, receptions, and yards in each of his four campaigns, and 2020 was the first season when he saw the field on over 50% of the Rams' offensive snaps. He did take a step byke in per/game numbers in 2020 compared to 2019 though.
This one-year deal puts him in line with Blake Jarwin and Eric Ebron from an average annual value standpoint. He's intriguing, but to think of him as anything more than a mid-low TE2 projecting into 2021 is borderline delusional.