by Noah Pires
May 23, 2018
With the draft over and free agency slowing down, NFL rosters are almost set in stone like Han Solo. Because of this, we can begin to look at the winners and losers for the upcoming 2018 fantasy szn. What's on the menu for today? Wide receivers, with a side of statistics and a dash of analysis.
Last season, JuJu Smith-Schuster exploded onto the NFL scene, posting a remarkable 58-917-7 line as a rookie. Heading into his sophomore year, JJSC finds himself in a more favorable situation, coupled with an added year of NFL experience. What contributed to his favorable situation was the trading away of Martavis Bryant, who may not have had a good season last year, but did account for some volume that could potentially swing JuJu's way. Marty B leaves 84 targets on the table, 9 of which came inside the red zone. What's interesting about this is that JuJu actually had fewer targets (79) than Bryant last season, although he did play 1 fewer game than Martavis, and JuJu's 79 targets split amongst 14 games equated to the same passing-game involvement Carlos Hyde had in 2017 (5.6 targets/game). Undoubtedly, the Steelers #2 reciever is inline for a much larger share of the target pie next year. While Bryant's departure paints the easy narrative for that, JuJu's staggering efficiency in 2017 should, and will b(dg)e, the argument we make all summer for him as a monster breakout candidate.
Big Ben's 130.6 QBR when targeting JuJu last year ranked #1 in the entire NFL. The rookie wideout finished as the most efficient receiver, per playerprofiler.com, boasting a +45.2 production premium (which according to PlayerProfiler means, "Measures a player's productivity among league-average situations, and discounts non-standard situations such as a 2-minute drill and garbage time.") and had the 3rd highest contested catch rate (73.7%) among WRs, along with the 6th highest catch rate (73.4%) overall. The Pittsburgh phenom paced the entire NFL with 2.43 fantasy points/target AND receiving yards/target (11.6), in addition to an impressive 15.8 yards/reception mark. Now, these numbers do the job of painting a picture of JuJu's efficiency, but when you dig deeper, there are a couple of goldmine stats that speak to both his efficiency and involement in this offense: Among all NFL wideouts, JuJu ranked 3rd in air yards/target (7.6) and had the 8th highest total YAC (430). The 7 guys that finished ahead of him in this category? Golden Tate, Keenan Allen, Jarvis Landry, Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, Adam Thielen, and Tyreek Hill..... ALL OF WHICH FINISHED AS FANTASY WR1s IN 2017. This shows JuJu runs far, catches it, and runs far again!!! Now, I don't want to speak for anybody else, but that sounds like someone everyone should want on their fantasy team. What sets JuJu apart from these other 7 you may ask? He did it on 58 receptions, 17 fewer than the next lowest wide receiver on the list (Tyreek Hill, 75 receptions). The player with the most YAC in 2017, Golden Tate, did so on 92 receptions, and although it may be foolish to project JuJu out to 92 targets simply because the Steelers still have AB and Lev Bell, for the sake of this argument, let's get freaky. With JuJu's average YAC sitting at 7.41, 92 receptions would amass 682 yards, which would've surpassed Tate for the #1 spot. Now, regression in his efficiency is inevitable as his volume increases, but you know what's good about that equation? His volume increases.
If we look at what JuJu did in 2017, in games where he received 6 or more targets, he averaged 5.375 receptions, 95.75 yards and .5 TD, which projects out to 86-1532-8 statline. 6+ targets per game is far from unreasonable, as that would only generate 96 total targets on the year (Martavis Bryant was on pace for 134 targets in 2015 acting as the Steelers' #2, and did so with his eyes bloodshot and barely open). Right now, JuJu is the 24th WR off fantasy boards, 50th overall (per MFL10), and WR27 (per fantasyfootballcalculator), both lower than where he finished last season. With these projected numbers, he would rival for the number one overall wr spot, and although it's highly unlikely, he may not finish ridiculously far off. It wouldn't surprise anyone if JuJu put up 70 catches for 1000 yards and 7 touchdowns, hell, that's basically what he was on pace for as a rookie. Now, with an expanded role, another year in the league, and his unrivaled efficiency, JuJu should find himself as an elite WR2 option with the potential to break into the top 12, which again, isn't unreasonable given his 7th ranked fantasy points/game mark amongst all WRs, behind AB, DHop, OBJ (who played 4 games), Keenan, Tyreek, and Davante Adams in 2017.
As of now, Kenny Stills is being selected as the WR46, 104th overall (per MFL10) after finishing as the WR28 and WR24 in 2017 and 2016, respectively. What changes for Kenny this year is obviously the departure of Jarvis Landry, who commanded 161 targets (3rd amongst wrs), 23 of which came inside the red zone, accounting for 32.4% of Miami's RZ targets. Obviously, all of these targets won't funnel directly to Stills, as DeVante Parker still factors in and they added super-athelete, Mike Gesicki out of Penn State, with their 2nd round pick in this year's draft. I don't know why, but Miami also went ahead and added two more slot receivers in Danny Amendola and Albert Wilson via FA, but Stills is still a good bet to see an increase on his 105 targets from a year ago. Gesicki should occupy the majority of Julius Thomas' 62 vacated targets, and the other two new additions will likely split Landry's, with some left over.
Along with Landry's targets, Stills finds himself in a favorable situation because of Miami's play calling. The Dolphins have shown they have no faith in Kenyan Drake despite his production, as seen by the signing of Frank Gore, who was at Adam Gase's Baptism, and investing a 4th round pick in Kalen Ballage. After moving on from Ajayi last szn, Miami was left with Drake and Damien Williams in the backfield, resulting in them drastically changing their offense from a rushing attack to an aerial one. In 2016, Miami ranked 27th in pass play percentage (56%), and even in 2017 in weeks 1-7 when Ajayi was on the roster, Miami passed on 59% of plays. When Ajayi was traded to the City of Brotherly Love (and greased light poles), Miami passed 66% of the time even though Drake outproduced Ajayi over that period in Miami (Drake avg 68.8 ypg and 5.07 ypc weeks 8-16, Ajayi avg 66.4 ypg and 3.37 ypc weeks 1-7), which helped skew their season average to 64%, numero uno in the NFL in 2017. They did add Minkah Fitzpatrick in the draft, but also lost Ndamukong Suh, so their defense likely won't show much improvement, which is good news for Stills as Miami gave up the 4th most points/game in 2017 (24.6). The Dolphins are going to need to throw, and with the likes of Ryan Tannehill and his spaghetti ACL, Bryce Petty, and Brock Osweiler lining up behind center, they find themselves in good hands. Fine, I won't lie to you. The QB situation in Miami is suboptimal at best, and this is the only real argument against Kenny Stills at his current ADP, but Vegas has Miami as the 2nd worst team with an over-under set at 5.5 as of now, and Vegas isn't in the business of losing money. Miami will be down, they will need to throw, and even if these are the guys chucking the pigskin, the wideouts will inevitably see the volume. Stills has averaged 50 receptions, 787.5 yards and 7.5 touchdowns over the last two years, and with the departure of Landry and many new comers, he will be at worst the 2nd option in Miami's game. Again, the 2nd option on Miami may not seem appealing, but when DeVante Parker is being shadowed/focused heavily on by the opposition's #1 corner, Stills will find himself facing a weaker DB, and blasted with targets. I'm not guaranteeing Stills will finish as an high-end, or even a back-end WR2 for that matter, but after finishing as the WR24 and WR28 back-to-back, a top 30 finish isn't out of reach, 16 spots ahead of where he's being picked.
Fair warning, some opinions be biased because Doug Baldwin is one of my favorite WRs to watch. The guy just gets open. I guarantee if you turn on a Seahawks game, you'll see one of 2 things: Russell Wilson running for his damn life or Doug Baldwin making a play that has you thinking "how the hell did that happen?" I'm sure if you're reading this you already know a little something about football, but watch this if you're a real one and want to see exactly what I'm talking about. That clip speaks for itself, so I'll stop talking about my opinions of him. It's time to hop into the lab and cook up like Heisenberg.
As of now, Doug Baldwin is WR12 in early fantasy drafts, after finishing as WR11 in 2017, WR7 in 2016, and WR9 in 2015 (PPR), averaging 82.33 receptions, 1062.66 yards and 9.66 tuddies over that span. Admittedly, last szn was Doug's worst since 2015, but this could be attributed to the groin injury he suffered early in the year. The Seattle wideout thrives in tight spaces, making agile cuts with quick footwork to create space, but injuries to this area hamper a wideout's explosiveness. Because of this nagging injury, Douggie's signature moves were compromised, attributing to the hit in his production. Even with these lingering issues, the Seattle receiver was still a reliable fantasy option when Pete Carroll remembered he had someone special like DB lining up in the slot. In games where Baldwin saw 5 or more targets, he averaged 5.4 receptions, 71.8 yards and .66 TDs, which was on pace for a (when rounded) 87-1149-11 statline, not too far off from his 3 year average. What isn't seen just by looking at these numbers? The 6'7 leech known as Jimmy Graham was in Seattle all 3 of these szns taking away from Doug's volume. As Jimmy (insta)Graham heads off to Wisconsin, he leaves behind 96 targets and 36.6% of the team's RZ targets (a league leading 26 targets inside the 20) from 2017. Along with Graham, Paul Richardson packs his bags for a 60 month getaway to the nation's capital, leaving behind 80 targets, 11 coming inside-the-20.
With both Graham and Richardson gone, and no new receiving threats outside of Jaron Brown, the Seahawks have major volume unaccounted for in 2018. Of Wilson's 22 redzone passing touchdowns last year, 15 are vacated (Graham 10, Richardson 4, Luke Willson 1), and Baldwin has shown value inside the 20. Although he only caught 3 RZ touchdowns in 2017, he caught 7 in 2016 and 6 in 2015 while boasting a better catch percentage inside the redzone than Jimmy Graham in the 3-year span. Baldwin and Wilson have more chemistry than Walter White (2nd Breaking Bad reference for the boys back home), and when you combine Doug's surehandedness with the volume available, his RZ TDs should postively regress back towards his average.
The NFC West seems to be one of the most high-powered divisions next season, and with Seattle losing Richard Sherman, Michael Bennett, and Sheldon Richardson (all of which ranked "above average" per pff), their defense won't be what it once was. Seattle will need to ramp up their scoring to keep up with the likes of the Rams, 49ers, and Cardinals, giving Baldwin the volume he needs to maintain his floor of a low end WR1. He is currently being picked here, and with the loss of major contributors in Seattle's offense in years past, Baldwin will benefit from increased volume while still avoiding the opposing team's CB1 (Patrick Peterson shadowed WRs 11/16 games last season, 2 of those games he didn't shadow were against Seattle).
One more thing:
Since 2015, in games where Graham didn't play, Baldwin saw a major spike in his production. Although 5 games is a small sample without Graham over this period, it does show that when Graham isn't playing, Russell will look his way, and often. Now, with Jimmy becoming a #cheeshead4lyfe, Baldwin will find himself in this situation all of 2018. His reception and yardage outputs in the "out of split" column aren't unfathomable, especially with the lack of other weapons on the Seahawks roster, so if Doug can reach somewhere near 90 receptions and 1,200 yards along with a realistic 9-10 touchdowns, he'll return value at WR12.
Firstly, Nick already put in a lot of work on Gallup, check out his post here and throw ya boy a like.
Now, since he covered most of the important points, I'll just talk about his situation. With the loss of Dez Bryant, Jason Witten, and Brice Butler, a total of 37 red zone targets, 22 end zone targets, and 241 overall targets are up for grabs. Dez accounted for 50% of the team's end zone targets (17), and 32.4% of the Cowboys RZ targets (20). Witten also accounted for 21.3% of the team's red zone targets (13), plus three end zone targets. Although they did add Allen Hurns, he topped out at a 17.6% target market share over the past 2 seasons, and the newly acquired Deonte Thompson reached 10.5% on a decrepit Bills squad. Considering Tavon Austin is now a running back lol, you should have no worry on that front as Dallas rarely targets their weapons out of the backfield. If Gallup sees just 15% of the target market share, which is what I believe is his floor based on the team's current weapons and new additions, that would account for 73 targets (based on last year's numbers). JuJu produced as a viable WR2 last season as a rookie getting 79 targets, so Gallup definitely shows upside due to his projected volume and pedigree. He is being chosen as the WR61, pick 163, which is 11 wide receiver spots behind Terrell Pryor and 65 picks after Oakland's 3rd WR Martavis Bryant. I understand being speculative about a rookie WR due to recency bias of how awful they've been over the last few years, but Gallup has a legit possibility of being this team's #1 option, and getting that with one of your last picks in the draft is an absolute steal.
As much as I loved arguing for Doug Baldwin as a winner, I may just as equally hate writing this. I love watching Funchess, but that doesn't take away from the fact that his situation this year is less than ideal. Last season, Greg Olsen was either out or banged up, Kelvin Benjamin was shipped off, and their only other receiving threat left was a running back in Christian McCaffrey. Because of this, Honey Funchess of Oats commanded 111 targets, resulting in a 63-830-8 stat line, good enough to warrant a WR2 finish.
What worries me is simply the lack of volume in 2018. Carolina not only drafted D.J. Moore in the 1st round, they also added C.J. Anderson through free agency, who is a far better pass catcher than Jonathon Stewart. They also added Jarius Wright and Torrey Smith, who, although are far from elite, are still 2 receivers that will account for some of the team's targets. To spell this out, here are some of the total targets Carolina's receivers have seen: Greg Olsen-118.2 since 2012, McCaffrey- 113 last szn, C.J. Anderson - 44.44 over past 3 years, Curtis Samuel - on pace for 46.22 last year, Torrey Smith - 65 over past 3 seasons (with 2016 projected to 16 games), and Jarius Wright - 34.33 over past 3 years (when projected out to 16 games). This adds up to roughly #420 targets, not counting D.J Moore. Now, it's likely they won't all command the same amount of targets in years past, so lets be conservative. If we expect Olsen to get 110, McCaffrey to get 101 (his pace over last 10 weeks), Anderson for 30, Torrey gets 45, Jarius Wright for 25, and the explosive Curtis Samuel for 40, even then, this adds up to 351 targets. Newton has thrown the ball an average of 510.33 over the past 3 seasons (when projected to 16 games), so this would leave 159 left over for Funchess and D.J. Moore. If Funchess were to receive the same number of targets as last year (111), then that would only leave 48 for Moore, which is unrealistic. Over the past 2 seasons, rookie WRs taken in the first round who started more than 1 game (excludes guys like John Ross and Mike Williams who battled injuries) were all on pace for over 100 targets (Corey Davis - 65 targets in 9 starts, Will Fuller - 92 in 14 games, and Corey Coleman - 73 in 10 games). Funchess was targeted 63 times as a rookie and 58 as a sophomore, and although he has developed as a wide receiver, I can't see him commanding the same volume he did last season with capable targets around him. Even during last szn with Benjamin still on the team (weeks 1-7), Funchess was only on pace for 66 receptions, 714 yards and 6 TDs, and that was without Olsen in that span after week 2.
Here are 2 charts that I found really interesting when analyzing Funchess' situation:
Although you can see Funchess has increased his PPR points/game through his career, he still remains much less valuable with Olsen on the field. Last year, he was almost a full 5 PPR points/game worse when Olsen played, even with Greg battling a foot injury that required surgery early in the year. Every one of his statistics takes a huge hit when Olsen plays, especially his touchdowns, which is an integral part of a 6'5 wide receiver's game. Excluding his rookie year, and 2017's injury-riddled season, Olsen has never seen less than 69 targets, 104 if you're looking from 2012 onwards. It's easy to say he'll lose many targets due to his age and recent injury, but last year in Carolina's one playoff game, he was targeted 12 times, caught 8 of them, took them for 107 yards and scored. With an entire offseason to recover, Olsen will likely keep his targets above 100 being Cam's surest option. Along with Funchess' lack of volume, Cam hasn't been a very proficient passer since his MVP season in 2015.
In his MVP year, Cam threw 25 RZ touchdowns, while in 2017 he threw 12 and 11 in 2016, and outside of 2015, has averaged 12 RZ TDs in his career. Funchess caught 4 red zone TDs in 2017, 3 in 2016 and 5 in 2015. As Carolina remains a run-heavy team (passed 57% of time in 2016, decreased to 53% last season), it's unlikely Cam hits that ceiling of 25 RZ tuddies, thus further decreasing Funchess' value as 2015 was his best scoring year from inside the 20. Boasting a 50.4% catch rate throughout his career, which is 3% worse than Mike Evans, who is constantly ragged on for his poor efficiency, along with less volume, I can't see Funch finishing near where he did in 2017. He's currently being picked as WR34, pick 82 (per ffcalculator), 3 picks ahead of Edelman and 41 ahead of Nelson Agholor. He may not finish too far off from the low-end WR3 status he's being picked at, but I'd pass at that ADP if I could swing a guy like Sony Michel (pick 86) instead of Funchess, then snag Agholor 40 picks later.
These next 2 guys are on here for very similar reasons: Reason #1, their division, and reason #2, a new wide receiver added in the draft process.
With Allen Robinson, he finds himself in one of the tougher divisions in the NFL now due to who the Packers and Vikings drafted. Last season, the Packers CB core was woeful, but they added 2 of the top prospects at that position with Jaire Alexander and Josh Jackson. I'm no expert on college cornerbacks, but I do know that spending a first rounder and trading up in the 2nd for another exemplifies the Packers love for the duo. Minnesota also added Mike Hughes late in the first round to pair up with Xavier Rhodes. Last year, when Rhodes shadowed, he gave up more than 4 receptions and 54 yards once (Marvin Jones was targeted 9 times and went for 6-109-2 on Thanksgiving) all while shadowing the likes of AB, Mike Evans, Davante Adams, Julio Jones, Devin Funchess and A.J. Green. Even the Lions, who are always thought of as having a sub-par defense, still have Darius Slay in the secondary. Slay ranked as PFF's 11th best cornerback in 2017, and held Julio to 4-50, Michael Thomas to 1-4, and AB to a single 1 catch and 9 yards on 4 targets. Likely being shadowed by Xavier Rhodes and Slay, as well as a new and improved Packers secondary 6 times in 2018, A-Rob is in for an extremely tough fantasy schedule. Even outside the division, he'll line up across Patrick Peterson (let up 2 touchdowns all of last season and only gave up more than 2 receptions and 26 yards once, and it was to Deandre Hopkins), Stephon Gilmore (PFF's #7 rated CB), Tre'Davious White (#2), and the Rams' secondary with Talib (15th) and Marcus Peters (17th).
With this tough schedule and crowded situation, I can't see Robinson returning anywhere near his 2015 form. The Bears drafted Anthony Miller, in my eyes, the best rookie WR in this class, added Taylor Gabriel and Trey Burton, and have an elite playmaker in the backfield named Tarik Cohen. The more I look at this team, the more they remind me of the Eagles of 2017. Here are some similarities - A QB who struggled as a rookie, a field stretcher (Taylor Gabriel vs Torrey Smith), a high pedigree slot WR (Anthony Miller vs Nelson Agholor), an able pass-catching tight end (Burton vs Ertz), and a 6'3 jump ball receiver (Alshon vs ARob). What the Bears have that the Eagles didn't though, is a player like Cohen who can catch out of the backfield and turn a screen into a 70 yard TD. Because of this, I can't see ARob outproducing what Alshon did last season. In 2017, Alshon finished as the WR18 (per FF today), and as of now, ARob is going as WR17 (40 overall). He has potential to finish as a WR1, but is highly unlikely due to his new situation, coming off an ACL tear, a multitude of weapons, and a tough schedule. Because of this, I can't justify picking ARob at his ceiling, and would much rather have Larry Fitz 7 picks later at WR20 (47 overall), which isn't his floor, it's his basement.
Let's start this off with the AFC West opponents, who Cooper will face 6 times in 2018. The Chargers somehow landed Derwin James at pick 17, further improving their already elite secondary. In 2017, the Chargers has 3 top 15 ranked cornerbacks per Pro Football Focus (Casey Hayward - 1, Desmond King - 14th, and Trevor Williams 10th) along with Jason Verrett returning from yet another injury, who was seen as a top 5 corner when healthy in 2015. Even without him, Cooper will be facing arguably the second best secondary twice in 2018. In 2017, Cooper was shadowed by Hayward in both of their matchups, racking up a monstrous 1-7 in their first meeting and 1 catch for 11 yards on 4 targets the 2nd time around. There isn't much more to say about his matchup vs the Chargers, so let's move on to the Chiefs. The Chiefs lost Marcus Peters in the offseason and were unimpressive last in 2017, but they made a move that could hinder Cooper's value when they meet. KC added Kendall Fuller, who was awful his rookie season, but turned it around last year, ranking as PFF's 5th highest rated corner. He is primarily a slot corner, and with the addition of Marty B and Jordy, Cooper will likely find himself on the inside plenty. Fuller ranked 5th in yards allowed/game (22.6), 4th in receptions allowed/game (2.0), lowest yards/target (5.0), 2nd lowest catch rate allowed (43.8%), 2nd lowest passer rating allowed (46.7), and lowest fantasy points/target (1) and fantasy points allowed/game (4.6). In summation, if Cooper finds himself in the slot, these are 2 more games I wouldn't want the Oakland WR in my lineup. Lastly in the division, the Denver Broncos. Sure they lost Mr. Steal Yo Chain, but they still have Chris Harris Jr. Harris ranked 6th in yards/target allowed (5.8), 9th in yards allowed/game (27.4), 8th lowest receptions allowed/game (2.1), 5th lowest catch rate (44.7%), 6th lowest passer rating (55.8), 5th lowest fantasy points/target (1.20), and 4th in fantasy points allowed/game (5.6). That's a lot of numbers, I know (all gathered from PlayerProfiler), but it shows just how tough these 6 games will be for Amari. Outside of these 6 weeks, he also faces Pat Pete in Week 10 and the Rams secondary to kick off 2018. Those matchups account for 57% of the fantasy season. Would you want a receiver you're not comfortable starting over half of your season at pick 34, WR14? At this position, he's almost 20 spots ahead of Golden Tate, who has reached 90 receptions each of the last 4 years and surpassed 1,000 yards 3 of the last 4 seasons. Along with his tough matchups, there simply just isn't enough opportunity for him to finish as a WR1 in 2018.
Oakland lost 143 targets from 2017 with the departure of Michael Crabtree and Cordarelle Patterson, but with the addition of Jordy Nelson and Martavis Bryant, it looks like they will take over all of the targets and then some. Also, Oakland invested heavily in their defense and signed Doug Martin, which could show a hope to focus a little more on the run after ranking 9th in pass play percentage in 2017. If their overall passing volume decreases from last season and the 2 new WRs claim what has been lost with Crabtree and Patterson, Cooper won't have nearly the same volume he is used to. Also, these 2 new wideouts are far better red zone options than Cooper, who, although had 5 touchdowns inside the 20 last year, had ZERO in 2016. Jordy has had at least 5 RZ TDs the past 3 years he played, catching 11 in 2016. Cooper also dropped over 10% of his targets last season (10 drops, 96 targets) while Jordy is one of the most surehanded WRs in the league. Because of this, Jordy will likely lead this team in TD receptions and will hinder Cooper's value inside the 20. All things considered, Cooper shouldn't be drafted as a fringe WR1 while guys like Larry Fitzgerald, Golden Tate, and JuJu are going well after him.
Not much to say here, just more of a heads up. If Coleman stays in Cleveland, he's basically undraftable. With the addition of Landry, Hyde and Chubb, Cleveland simply doesn't have enough volume to sustain a 3rd wide receiver. Josh Gordon was on pace for 134.4 targets last year, which is below what he has seen when he played in the past, as he was on pace for 150 in 2015 and saw 159 in 14 games in 2013. Duke Johnson Jr. saw 93 targets last year and Jarvis has never gotten less than 112 (saw 162 last year as well). Njoku saw 60 last year and Hyde saw 88 in San Fran. The Browns threw 574 times last season, so if, let's say Gordon gets 135 targets, Landry gets 130, Duke gets 90, and Njoku gets 60, that would leave 159 between Hyde, Chubb, Antonio Callaway, Corey Coleman, and guys like Seth DeValve. Even if the Browns went to a buffet there would be too many mouths to feed. What's interesting is Coleman has been involved in trade talks. Things have slowed down since the draft, but if he were to somehow find himself in a place like Seattle or Dallas, who are in need of receiving options, his value would skyrocket. As of now, he's being selected as WR72, pick 191. If he stays with Cleveland, there isn't much upside, so I probably wouldn't even consider taking him, but if he is indeed traded, he could potentially be a WR4 with WR3 upside if in the right landing spot. His ADP will obviously rise, but as of now, he's basically free. Keep an eye on Coleman, he could be interesting in 2018.
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