Fantasy Football Week 3 - Top Waiver Wire Adds

by Nick Ercolano September 19, 2017

Fantasy Football Week 3 - Top Waiver Wire Adds

Every Tuesday afternoon I'll send this sheet out to the interwebs, highlighting this week's top waiver wire pick-ups.
Criteria to Make this List:
  • All players must be owned in less than 50% of Yahoo Leagues.
  • FAAB is based on $100 budget. Y'all can do the simple math if your league isn't $100...
  • Is this FA Worthy of your top waiver wire claim?​

Sorry for any typos, I hate proof-reading. 

Quarterbacks

 
Player
% Owned (Yahoo)
Notes
FAAB
Worth #1 WW?
Next 4 Opponents
Jay Cutler (MIA)
28%
  • In his first game back, against a relatively tough pass defense (when at full strength), Cutler played really well, throwing for 230 yards and a score without an interception.
  • Ajayi led the way with 28 carries and this will undoubtedly be a run-first offense, but Cutler's efficiency should benefit from this.
  • Cutler utilized all of his weapons from DeVante Parker (85 yards), to Jarvis Landry (13 receptions), to Kenny Stills (touchdown) and I expect that to be the case. Especially against a ridiculously friendly matchup against the Jets in Week 3. 
  • The Jets have let up about 20 fantasy points to both QBs they've face in 2017 (Tyrod, Carr) and I'd be surprised if Cutler didn't finish inside the top-12 in Week 3. 
$2
No
@NYJ, NO, TEN, @ATL
Trevor Siemian (MIN)
13%
  • Two strong performances to start off the year, looks like this new offense is worth the hype.
  • He's now thrown for 450 passing yards and 6 touchdowns through two weeks and is currently sitting at QB1 in fantasy.
  • With two great outside threats in Sanders and Thomas, and a real ground game w/ C.J. Anderson leading the way ( ypc) behind a much-improved offensive line, Siemian is definitely going to be a thing in 2017, especially for streamers.
  • People will continue to label him a game manager and exploiter of short passes, but his ADOT (8.5 in 2017, 9.2 in 2016) continues to prove otherwise.
  • He gets two matchups against teams that have performed okay against the pass so far in 2017 statistically, but they've both played the Jets and not much more. Seimian should be a fine stream at Buffalo and home vs. Oakland over the next two.
$3
No
@BUF, OAK, BYE, NYG

Running Backs

Player
% Owned (Yahoo)
FAAB
Worth #1 WW?
Next 4 Opponents
Chris Carson (SEA)
40%
  • He was my number one pickup last week, and if you didn't listen to me last week, now's the time to turn your brain on and do so since Seattle's back is still available in 60% of Yahoo leagues.
  • Even with Thomas Rawls back, and supposedly getting eased into a workload, Carson should be the guy going forward.
  • The list of accomplishments for Carson starts with forcing Eddie Lacy to be a healthy scratch for the Hawks' Week 2 game against SF. He then outsnapped Rawls 51-16, getting fed like a workhorse finishing with 21 touches and 100 total yards. He continuously made something out of nothing behind the Seahawks disgusting offensive line, if you want to call it that.
  • C.J. Prosise was a bit more involved in this game, also getting 16 snaps and saw 6 targets which he converted into just 22 yards. He'll continue to have a place, but Carson is proving what's left of the Seattle backfield's talent redundant.
  • If the Hawks can somehow turn around their offensive line play, Carson has RB1 potential. He has two heart-eye emoji matchups in Weeks 3 and 4.
$50
Yes
@TEN, IND, @LAR, BYE
Samaje Perine (WAS)
23%
  • Rob Kelley left Washington's Week 2 game with what was believed to be a fractured rib, but turns out to be something to do with his rib cartilage, and is considered "day-to-day" and we should know more by Wednesday. Kelley was running really well (12 carries, 78 yards), before he left and Perine took over as the workhorse, getting 21 carries for the remainder.
  • Perine didn't look great, racking up just 67 yards (3.19 ypc), but the Skins clearly want to run the ball in close games, so the volume will be there. If Kelley is back, the carries should still be heavily in favor of Fat Rob, and if not, Perine will be the favorite for early down work, a likely 15+ carry candidate, but losing work to Chris Thompson who balled out in Week 2. 
  • I'm much lower on Perine than most, simply because even if, best case scenario, Kelley misses 2-4 weeks, it's not the primary ball carrier in Washington's backfield isn't exactly a fantasy cash cow. He's an RB2/flex play at best. And I also don't expect Kelley to miss that time given the his diagnosis. Don't overspend on Perine.
$5-8
No
OAK, @KC, BYE, SF
Chris Thompson (WAS)
30%
  • Since we're on Washington running backs, Chris Thomson, as I just mentioned balled out in Week 2. But he's another one to have caution about.
  • We've seen big games from Thompson before, but he's no different than the Shane Vereens of the world, it's a roller coaster ride.
  • Even with RB1 Kelley going down with an injury, Thompson still only saw 3 carries.... Sure he turned those into 77 yards and two touchdowns, but that's not an every week thing, barely and every year thing.
  • If Kelley misses time, maybe Thompson sees 5 carries, but he's a much better PPR play and is only considered a flex at that. He's seen 12 targets through two games which is fine, but he's been unrealistically efficient with his touches. Despite his statlines of late, don't break the bank on Thompson.
$3-5
No
OAK, @KC, BYE, SF
Darren Sproles (PHI)
44%
  • If you're in a PPR league and in need of an RB3/flex, look not further than Darren Sproles. 
  • It's the second week in a row Sproles has lead the backfield in snaps and receptions on a team that's thrown the ball 85 times through two games. Sproles saw 44 snaps, compared to Wendell Smallwood's 14 and Blount's 6. Blount didn't even get a single carry, and Smallwood saw 3, compared to 10 for Sproles. It's clear he's the only back to own here, there's not much more to it.
  • The ONLY time Sproles might be phased out would be as heavy favorites, against a CLV or IND, but none of the next 4 would suggest that.
$10-12
Yes
NYG, @LAC, ARZ, @CAR
Duke Johnson (CLV)
51%
  • I'm cheating here because Duke's 51% owned, buttfuckit.
  • With Corey Coleman sidelined indefinitely, and Kenny Britt pretty much being phased out of Cleveland's offense, Duke is basically the Tarik Cohen of Lebron Jamesville. They have virtually no other playmakers.
  • With the injuries and unmet potential of other Browns players, Duke's snap count will rise as he'll get targets not only from the backfield, but should line up in the slot and outside, and likely with Crowell on the field too. Remember, Hue Jackson did this time and time again in Cincy with Jeremy Hill and Gio.
  • Again, he's not a player I'm breaking the bank on whatsoever because the recency bias of their Week 2 game (80 yards on 7 touches), and he made some amazing plays, but if he doesn't break a big play or score (which he literally never does), you can't count on him weekly with a low volume. He has a decent PPR floor if you're in need of an RB3/Flex1/2.
$4-6
No
@IND, CIN, NYJ, @HOU
D'onta Foreman (HOU)
7%
  • After logging a single carry in Houston's Week 1 tea-bagging from Jacksonville, HC Bill O'Brien put his money where his mouth is big time, stating Foreman would get more involved going forward after Lamar Miller has looked like the most extra medium back ever. 
  • While the 12 touches for Foreman in their Week 2 win was encouraging, what was more important was the tried-and-true eye test, which Foreman passed with flying colors.
  • The rookie, who's size is underrated looking like a Leonard Fournette clone (maybe a cookie or too more of body fat) looked way more explosive than Lamar Miller and gave this team a much-needed boost of energy. When the eye test gets the check mark, it's usually only a matter of time until that translates into opportunity, and then fantasy points.
  • I'd be very surprised if Miller get's completely phased out of their game-plan, but soon, Foreman should be one of the very few backs in the league with both stand-alone value and true RB1 handcuff value.
  • He's not someone I'm starting in my lineup yet, but the big girl needs to be owned everywhere.
$8-10
Yes
@NE, TEN, KC, CLV

Wide Receivers

Player
% Owned (Yahoo
Notes
FAAB
Worth #1 WW?
Next 4 Opponents
Rashard Higgins (CLV)
1%
  • Corey Coleman out indefinitely with a broken hand, and Kenny Britt fading, Higgins looks like a bright spot here.
  • He was promoted just 4 days ago from the practice squad but made a big splash in Week 2, catching 7-of-11 targets for 95 yards aka a PPR owner's wet dream. He played in 54-of-71 snaps, 12 more than Britt and was listed as a starter on the Browns unofficial depth chart this week.
  • Higgins, only 22, is a favorite of Matt Harmon and his reception perception breakdowns, aka, he's very technically sound/is a fantastic route runner = not flukey.
  • Lacking weapons on offense, Higgins could surprise PPR owners for the ROS with WR3/flex value going forward. Doesn't hurt that he gets the Colts, Bengals and Jets over the next three weeks.
$5-7
No
@IND, CIN, NYJ, @HOU
Allen Hurns/Marqise Lee (JAX)
26%/34%
  • 37-16, Jacksonville holds the L. Things are back to normal. Meaning, plenty of garbage time points to be had for Blake Bortles and the Jaguars receiving corps.
  • Both receivers were startable in fantasy, Hurns everywhere, Lee moreso in PPR. Both wideouts played in 87/88% of their offensive snaps which I'd assume holds going forward.
  • Lee out-targeted Hurns 12-7, and reeled in 7 catches vs. 6 for Hurns, but the latter had more yardage (82-76) and scored a touchdown.
  • Like I said last week, Hurns is more of a big time threat and has the touchdown upside (6'2), while Lee is a better full PPR play.
  • Week 3, 2017's first London game (shoot me in the face plz) should be a low-scoring affair against a stiff BAL d, but they did get torched by R. Higgins (CLV) in Week 2, so it's not an impossible WR matchup, especially as they're 4 point dogs and more garbage time should be in their future.
  • I'd probably recommend sitting Hurns if you have better options, but I'd be okay with Lee in PPR as a WR3/flex.
$4-8 each
No
BAL, @NYJ, @PIT, LAR
Kenny Stills (MIA)
26%
  • Stills is a guy who grew on me throughout the summer, and I even took a stab on him in a 14-team league, which worked out for me when I threw him in my flex last week. He only caught 2-of-5 targets for 37 yards, but he once again found paydirt, something he's done in 8 of his previous 11 regular season games. 
  • Stills played in 88% of the Dolphins offensive snaps, but what I like most about Stills' outlook is having Cutler throwing the ball. I think Week 2 was an outlier game for that offense in terms of targets, and Landry catching 13 passes. Given Casey Hayward on the outside covering a lot of Stills/Parker, Cutler resorted to dink and dunks too many times.
  • Historically, Cutler LOVES using his outside weapons, the combination of B-Marsh and Alshon Jeffery in Chicago were his go-to's, and I think we're going to see that eventually spill over into South Beach.
  • The Dolphins get three super easy pass matchups in a row, I think Stills gives WR3 numbers or better in at least 2-of-3.
$2-4
No
@NYJ, NO, TEN, @ATL
Mohamed Sanu (ATL)
16%
  • He's not the flashiest, and definitely has limited upside, but his floor is looking mighty fooine. Through two weeks, Sanu has out-targeted Julio (15-14) and has caught two more passes than the gawd (11-9).
  • The target and reception totals would put a smile on my dome from a PPR stand point, but don't expect much in standard leagues. His aDOT (depth of target) is much lower than the other wideouts in Atlanta as is his YPR, ranking 44th amongst WRs that have seen 50% of their teams snaps in 2017.
  • He still remains one of the few WR "handcuffs" in the NFL that has standalone value too.
$3-5
No
@DET, BUF, BYE, MIA
Danny Amendola (NE)
49%
  • He's definitely a better DFS play, but the little guy who dates possible the most beautiful-faced chick in the world is expected to return in Week 3 to a team that managed to score 36 points with Brandin Cooks being the only healthy WR on their roster at one point during this game.
  • Edelman is gone. Gronk got banged up and is week-to-week, Hogan injured something or other (but returned, will likely play), Burkhead got banged up, Philip Dorsett got banged up. Lot of banging up going on around in New England.
  • If he suits up, Amendola has a pretty clear path to 8+ targets. He caught 6 passes for 100 yards in Week 1 and I'd expect him to be used similarly.
  • Again, a better DFS play given he's a coin flip chance of getting injured on Any Given Sunday, throw it WILLIE BEAMIN!!!
$5-8
No
DET, @PHI, @TB, LAC
Tyler Lockett (SEA)
40%
  • While Tyler Lockett finally looks back to full form, it's unfortunate the Seahawks unit as a whole isn't. 
  • Paul Richardson's been running as the WR2 for the Hawks, but it looks like a WR2A-B situation. Lockett did out-snap Richardson 61-39 in Week 2 and led the team in yards (64), and was also tied for the team-high with Doug Baldwin in targets (9) and receptions (6).
  • I wouldn't count on the target numbers every game as Seattle, beyond the box and final score, dominated this game with a TOP of 36:58 vs. 23:02. Wilson threw the ball 39 times, his average was 34 in 2016, and the Hawks still ran the ball 37 times as a team on Sunday.
  • Lockett's a bonafide playmaker, but this team needs to figure out its offense before you can be comfortable throwing him in your lineup. Hopefully they can figure it out over the next few weeks against friendly pass defenses in Tennessee and home vs. Indy. He's a good stash moving forward.
$5-7
No
@TEN, IND, @LAR, BYE
J.J. Nelson (ARZ)
20%
  • J.J. Nelson seemed like a pretty easy DFS own in Week 2 with both David Johnson and John Brown sidelined, going up against an awful Indianapolis Colts team. Double J's didn't disappoint, throwing up a 120 spot catching 5-of-7 targets one of them going for a tuddy. Nelson continues to be an underrated wideout in this offense and in the NFL.
  • Unfairly ridiculed for being too small (5-10, 160), Nelson's proven he can get it done against the big boys. Going back to my Cardinals team outlook this summer, I mentioned that over the last 5 weeks of 2016, J.J. Nelson was fantasy's WR2 in standard behind only Jordy Nelson.
  • He's carried that over into 2017, catching 5 passes and scoring a touchdown in both of Arizona's games so far. With David Johnson out for months and John Brown likely out at least a few weeks (good bet to miss half the season when all is said and done), Nelson should be a huge contributor to this offense.
  • Nelson has now gone over 75 receiving yards and/or scored a touchdown in each of his last 7 regular season games.
  • Carson Palmer has attempted the most deep balls (20+ yards) among all QBs this year and ranks 3rd in air yards. It matches up well with Nelson's big play ability and all-world 4.28 speed. 
  • He gets a matchup in Week 3 with a Dallas defense that just let up 2 tuddys to Denver's WR2 Emmanuel Sanders.
  • It's still going to be a bad offense, with a QB who's spiraling in the wrong direction, but Nelson's talent is apparent and the opportunity is served on a platter.
$5-8
No
DAL, SF,@PHI, TB
Jermaine Kearse (NYJ)
2%
  • Alright so Kearse finds himself back on this list after another useful fantasy week. Even moreso than in Week 1 where he grabbed 7 passes for 59 yards. He raised the stakes in Week 2, catching 4 passes for 64 yards and grabbing two tuddys.
  • He's currently WR5 in fantasy (0.5 PPR). My gawd. I'm shook as shit.
  • Despite just joining the team just weeks ago, Kearse hs played in 91% of the teams snaps in 2017, he's a staple of this passing offense moving forward. They'll never be a favorite in 2017, so the pass-friendly game scripts will continue, but I really can't sit here and tell you I'd every be comfortable telling you to start Kearse in one of your lineups tbh.
$3-5
No
MIA, JAX, @CLV, NE
Kendall Wright (CHI) 15%
  • I can't believe I've finally succumb to the bullshit of Kendall Wright and putting him on this list, but Sunday was a perfect example of what we should expect going forward.
  • A bad team, with bad players getting and undeserved hefty starter-amount of volume. 
  • With their top two wideouts, Cameron Meredith and Kevin White ded, they have to throw 11 guys on the field.. that's the rule I guess. And Wright happens to be one of the 11 blessed players in Chicago.
  • After playing in just 58% of the team's snaps in Week 1, he became an every snap player (86%) last week as they got shmacked by TB. He caught 7-of-10 targets for 69 SEND IT, targets.
  • I'd never advise wasting a pick up on Wright outside of full PPR and I doubt the Bears will get whooped this bad weekly. 7 of his 10 targets came after the team was already down 23-0. He should have had 2 more catches but blatantly dropped them. Either way, only one pass traveled further than like 7 yards, he basically has 0 touchdown or big play upside. He's a WR4 in full PPR, with 4 tough passing matchups in as many games.
$2-3 No PIT, @GB, MIN, @BAL

Tight End

Player
% Owned (Yahoo)
Notes
FAAB
Worth #1 WW?
Next 4 Opponents
Dwyane Allen (NE)
8%
  • Gronk's injury isn't believed to be serious, but I'd consider him more week-to-week than the reports that put him at day-to-day given the nature of groin injuries.
  • The Pats are hurtin', pun intended, in the category of weapons with almost all of their pass catchers banged up.
  • If Gronk misses time, and it's not a sure thing, Allen could wind up seeing 5-7 targets, a couple of which will probably be near the endzone.
  • This is more for the TE streamers than those looking for a long-term replacement, Allen is yet to catch a pass in 2017. But there's a time and place for everyone. Would you be remotely surprised if he scored twice on Sunday?
  • Didn't think so, although the matchup with Houston is awful for TEs.
$1
No
HOU, CAR, @TB, @NYJ
Benjamin Watson (BAL)
1%
  • I don't think a lot of people knew this, but Dennis Pitta lead all TEs in receptions (86) last season. Que Benjamin Watson.
  • After a terrible Week 1, the 72-year old turned it around against a swiss cheese Cleveland defense, catching all 8 of his targets for 91 yards and played in 74% of the teams snaps.
  • This offense loves to use its tight ends and we might see Watson emerge as the guy here, after he was signed to be in 2016 but suffered a season ending injury in the preseason.
  • Now, back and healthy, Watson gets a matchup in London with the Jags who've let up the 3rd most fantasy points to the TE position in 2017.
  • With all the TE injuries this week, if you're in desperate need of a replacement, Watson's a top-2 option on the wire.
$3-5
No
JAX, @PIT, OAK, @CHI
Vernon Davis (WAS)
2%
  • The case here is simple... Jordan Reed can't stay healthy. The Skins TE1 is now not only dealing with a supposed fractured toe, but an "SC Joint Sprain". He's listed as day-to-day, but I heard from a guy, who knows a guy, that this sprain is more painful than the AC joint sprain he dealt with last year that held him out/made him a decoy for weeks.
  • Davis is no animal with Reed out, though. In 2016, there were 8 games in which Reed played in less than 50% of snaps (sat out 4-of-8), Davis averaged 4.9 targets, 3.25 receptions, just over 41 yards and scored just once.  
  • He does, however, get a nice matchup at home versus Oakland and this game's over/under of 54 is by far the highest of Week 3 as of this writing.
  • Reed did come back in the game after he left with the injury which for the most part points to him suiting up the following week, but it's worth monitoring.
$1-2
No
OAK, @KC, BYE, SF
Zack Miller (CHI)
5%
  • Miller benefits from the season-ending injuries to Cameron Meredith and Kevin White. Mike Glennon has to throw the ball somewhere, other than Tarik Cohen.
  • "Z-Mill reeled in 4-of-6 targets for 39 yards, which isn't impressive, but I think that's his weekly floor." - Me in last week's waiver wire article. He upped the ante in Week 2, catching 6-of-9 SEND IT targets for 42 yards. Miller is shaping up to be a safe floor PPR play at TE.
  • Miller and Sims were close in snap count for Week 1, but as the Bears fell behind, they leaned on their pass-catching TE in Miller, who played in 75% of snaps compared to Sims' 47%.
  • Miller is the clear fantasy TE to own in Chicago and this offense is in desperate need of playmakers without their top 2 wideouts and expecting to trail a lot throughout 2017.
  • The Bears should be at least touchdown underdogs in their next 3 games so I expect Miller to continue to be fed like a fat boy. FAAB advice is PPR leagues only for Miller.
$3-5
No
PIT, @GB, MIN, @BAL
Austin Seferian-Jenkins (NYJ)
3%
  • I hate this, but I'm gonna do it. ASJ is one of those fantasy players that the same analysts predict a breakout on year-in and year-out, only to dissapoint each time. BUT, if he does ever have that good szn szn, they'll come out the woodworks like some Nostradamus mfs. 
  • Anyways, ASJ served his 3 game sspn to begin the szn and has a clear path to targets. A lot went wrong in TB for the hyped, athletic/versatile TE, both on and off the field, but the problems are supposedly in the past. He's rid himself of booze (what an idiot), and supposedly lost 25lbs while looking great throughout the summer, but who didn't lose 25lbs and look great in July? The only guy I know for certain is Eddie Lacy.
  • Again as ridiculously heavy underdogs moving forward, plenty of passing volume will be available moving forward and the Jets have no real redzone options in the passing game.
  • We remember what Josh McCown did in Cleveland with Gary Barnidge. The 60-year old TE averaged 4.5 catches on over 7 targets, 59 receiving yards and half a touchdown a game while McCown was under center. Believe it or not, McCown has been competent in the green uniform ranking 8th among QBs in adjusted completion percentage, and is QB15 in fantasy at the moment.
  • I'm not starting him right away, but ASJ has the potential to be a top 12-14 TE for the rest of season if he can stay healthy. 
$2-4 No MIA, JAX, @CLE, NE


Nick Ercolano
Nick Ercolano

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