Fantasy Football Week 16 - YouTube Notes
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Offensive Player Injuries
Aaron Rodgers (I.R.)/Davante Adams
- Byke on the IR, Hundley byke under center. Adams who was Hundley's only semi-reliable target might be out after getting destroyed by Thomas Davis. If he's out it'll leave Jordy, Cobb and Geronimo Allison left. They play the Vikings, so Rhodes will probably take Jordy leaving Cobb as a pretty good play.
Antonio Brown (Calf)
- He's out for Week 16 - @ HOU, leaving both JuJu and Martavis Bryant as legit WR2s. The Texans are awful against the pass - JuJu coming off a 6-114 game, Martavis has 28 targets over his last 4 games, at least 4 catches in 4 straight, they'll both get a big boost without Brown.
Marqise Lee (Ankle)
- Sprained ankle in wk 15, didn't return, will be back by playoffs or sooner, but not expected to play in Week 16 against SF. Leave Dede as WR1, even after a bad game. Keelan Cole will get a big boost, he's scored in 3 straight, I cover all of this in my WW section.
DeSean Jackson (Ankle)
- Sprained his ankle, couldn't return. They play @ CAR in Week 16, he didn't practice on Wed, looking on the wrong side of playing. - it'll be a slight boost to Evans who will see more targets, but also to Chris Godwin the rookie out of Penn State for those of you in deeper leagues. Godwin's been good when given opportunity, which isn't often. He's had two games this szn where he saw more than 3 targets, in both of them he finished with 5 catches and 68 yards. There's a chance both DJax and O.J. Howard are out so Godwin could be a nice sneaky start here.
Amari Cooper (Ankle)
- Missed wk 15 after re-aggravating ankle in wk 14 - Carr was bad, but Crabtree caught 2tds on a ridic 17 tgts, thats 30 over his L2. They play @PHI Week 16 - just let up 11-139-1 to Shep on 16 targets. Wouldn't surprise me to see similar numbers for Crab this week if Cooper sits again. I don't love Cook, he's been super inconsistent even without Cooper. Look at Lynch splits.
Emmanuel Sanders (Ankle)
- d2d with bruised right ankle - they play @ WAS in, who overall have done well against fantasy WRs but have been spotty and can definitely allow the big game. Osweiler is going to be back under center in Week 16 for this one, so things could be horrible, or not so horrible. Demaryius Thomas hasn't seen less than 8 targets since Week 7, and Sanders, prior to this last week, went under 17 receiving yards in 4 straight games, so DT is the play either way and gets a boost if Sanders is out. I don't want anything else to do with this passing offense.
Jeremy Maclin (Knee)
- Maclin's unlikely to play, he's sitting out practice --- I went in about Mike Wallace in my waiver wire sheet - he should have a monster game @ home versus Indy if Maclin sits.
Chris Hogan (Shoulder)
- He returned in Week 14 from the shoulder injury that sidelined him for 4 games, to play terribly and ineffective catching 1 of 5 targets for 1 yard - so they made him inactive this week. He did practice on Wednesday, but same thign happened last week so keep it monitored. The Pats play at home against the Bills this week - if they decide to rest him, it's a boost to Cooks and Gronk - look at splits both better Cooks much - Amendola is actually better in games that Hogan's played this year. If Hogan goes, he'll be a WR3 with upside in a lil revenge game script. Cooks is a WR2.”’
Leonard Fournette (Ankle)
- He's dealing with multiple lower body injuries, ankle etc. Expected back this week against the 49ers who have been much better against the run since stud rookie LB Rueben Foster's return, but if Fournette is playing I want him in my lineup as an RB1. No other back in JAX backfield has done anything that would suggest they're gonna steal work from Fournette when he's on the field.
Joe Mixon (Concussion)
- Still in proto, but practiced in full on Wed, I'd bet he's clear to go this weekend. Otherwise fire up Mixon as a high-end RB2 against the Lions @ home - they've allowed the 3rd most FPs to RBs in 2017 - nearly 145 yards and 1.1 TDs a game to the position along with 6 catches a game to backs.
Tevin Coleman (Concussion)
- Missed Week 15 w/ a conco, Freeman owners are praying he misses Week 16 too after he went for nearly 200 total yards in their win over the Bucs on MNF. Coleman's not a suggested play even if he is healthy, they played the Saints just two weeks ago in that wild fuckin game he racked up around 35 total yards, just not enough volume when Freeman is rolling like this.
Rex Burkhead (Knee)
- Sprained knee - hopeful on a playoff return. Dion Lewis gets a huge bump - we've seen him slowly creeping into more passing work of the last few weeks now it's inevitable. Since Week 10, Burkhead and Lewis have combined for 82% of all NE RB touches. Look for Lewis to take over a huge chunk of that. White will have an increased role of course too, he can be a flex in PPR leagues. Gill would probably be active, would be the most typical patriot bullshit
O.J. Howard (Ankle)
- Left MNF as he entered the endzone on a 30-yard score. Placed on IR. They play @ CAR - Brate becomes a solid play for Week 16. Carolina will be without Thomas Davis sspn, Kuechly is the coverage LB but Davis is not a scrub, he's a top-25 graded coverage LB per PFF, so it's a boost to Brate there as well.
Hunter Henry (I.R.)
- Kidney issue which is serious placed him on IR - they'll have to use Antonio Gates as the pass catcher here I suppose. He's virtually a non-factor as of late, registering 0 catches in 3 of their last 5. It'll be a boost for Keenan Allen, if that's possible and I think Tyrell Williams too. The LAC line isn't great to begin with and Henry was PFF's 3rd overall graded TE, 5th in run blocking.
Defensive Player Injuries
Thomas Davis (LB - CAR - SSPN)
- Talked about already, for the hit on ___ - was 2 games, appealed to 1. It's a boost to the Bucs offense as a whole. Davis wasn't good in run defense, but was rated very high in pass rush which will be good for an o-line that's given up 12 sacks over their last 3 games. Maybe Winston won't turn the ball over 47 times.
Joe Haden (CB - Steelers)
- Finally expected back - was close to playing last week but didn't, should be close to 100% - this is a big boost to the offense. He hasn't played since Week 10 after breaking his fibula against the Colts. He was a top-35 CB in the NFL before injury. In the five games since then, the Steelers have allowed 270.4 passing yards per game to QBs and almost 2 TDs per game. As it stands right now, the Bucs are the only team allowing more passing yards per game on the year than that 271.3. They were a lot better in the beginning of the year.
Bobby Wagner (LB - Seahawks)
- I told y'all last week this would have a huge impact on them. Wagner played in 46/68 snaps for Seattle - Earl Thomas said he shouldn't of played, he wasn't Bobby Wagner out there. I.E. - look what happened to this defense. There were no setbacks so expect him to look better and be healthier as they take on the Cowboys, they're going to need him with Zeke coming byke.
Denzel Perryman (LB - Chargers)
- Perryman is out w/ a hammy injury for week 16, LAC had a bad run d, gets worse although he wasn't very good this year. It's a boost to Powell and Forte, but you're likely not in your chip if you're playing with those guys anyways.
Leonard Williams (DL - Jets)
- In the conco proto, would be first game ever missed - boost to Melvin Gordon and should help this line considering they lose Hunter Henry.
E.J. Gaines (CB - Bills)
- This pass d has been a nice bright spot for the Buffalo team thanks to the combo of Tre'Davious White and Gaines - White is PFF's 3rd overall graded CB on the szn and Gaines is also top-25. Suffered a knee injury, not sure the extent but he'll be replaced by Shareece Wright if he misses time who's grading out as one of the bottom CBs in the league. It's a big boost to Brandin Cooks, and Hogan if he plays.
Guys I love
Philip Rivers @NYJ - going against NYJ 5th most FPs to QBs, likely without Leo Williams like I said before - get the man in your lineup - had his first bad week in like 6 weeks in Week 15 but forgive and forget.
Matt Stafford @CIN - Don't fret the matchup, the Bengals are ridiculously banged up - missing Pacman Jones, Vontaze Burfict, Dre Kirkpatrick, both Nick Vigil and Kevin Minter placed on the IR. It's possible Burfict and Kirkpatrick return but who knows. The Bengals d, over their last 7 games have allowed 286 yards of offense to opposing QBs per game and have allowed multiple scores to the last 3 QBs they've faced - at least 19 fantasy points to 4 straight QBs. This team, banged up, with nothing to play for - I just don't think they get it done against Staff.
Keenum, Joe Flacco and Bortles all have great matchups/opportunities to bring you in between 18-22 fantasy points as well.
Cmac - JStew vs. TB - I was all in on Cmac last week the boi delivered big time -- I really like both guys this week against this TB front - they didn't have Gerald McCoy after he messed up his bicep a couple of weeks ago - we saw what Devonta Freeman did to them. McCoy's status is up in the air, but he didn't practice at all last week. Lavonte David missed last week and his backup got hurt is on the IR now, another hit to this depleted D.
Dion Lewis vs. BUF - Absolute must start without Burkhead in the lineup - I would be shocked if he finished with less than 16 fantasy points.
Kyle Rudolph @GB - Left briefly but came back in last week, scored his 5th TD in last 4 games. Huge part of this redzone game. Jimmy Graham is the only TE this year that has more targets inside the opp 10-yard line. This team has gotten killed by QBs, especially without Rodgers in the game. They've given up 3 TDs to TEs in as many games, including 9-116-1 to Greg Olsen last week.
I also like Eric Ebron - I wrote about him in my waiver wire sheet you guys can check out. Same with Cameron Brate if O.J. Howard/DJax sits and Thomas Davis.
Guys I don't like.
Matt Ryan - Goes on the road versus NO, their D has allowed just 198 passing yards per game over their last 9 - that includes the 354 yard game from Goff when they didnt have Lattimore or Crawley their top 2 d-backs. Ryan's thrown for more than 225 yards just once over his L6 games, multiple touchdowns once over his last 5. The Saints are not good agaisnt the run, they rank 29th allwoing 4.5 ypc, with Freeman on fire I expect them to lean heavily on the run, to help quiet and keep this crowd relaxed, should be a wild game with a lot on the line. I just don't like Ryan to come through for your fantasy team.
Carlos Hyde vs. JAX - This d has taken a big turn for the better against the run, they were bad over the first half, but I knew that would play itself out eventually, their pass d is too good not have their run d improve. They haven't allowed a RB to hit 80 rushing yards since Week 6 and are allowing the 7th fewest FPs to the position on the year now. I think the bigger problem here is the fact that Jimmy G is an actual QB and isn't checking down like Hoyer and Beathard were. Hyde has avgd just 2.6 targets and 1.6 receptions a game in the 3 games with Jimmy G at QB, in the 11 previous games he was averaging 6.6 targets and 4.4 receptions. JAX allowing the 6th fewest rec yards/game (35) to opposing RBs. I just don't see them getting a ground game going and the math doesn't add up for a big receiving workload for Hyde.
Lamar Miller vs. PIT - we saw what happened in the blowout loss to JAX last week, we're gonna see it again against PIT. He's averaging 3.2 ypc over their last 5 games - with Haden back they should have an easier time putting all the outside pressure on DHop with T.J. Yates at QB. It won't be a hard matchup for this defense, a lot of the struggles are from the line too, they're 21st RB per Football Outsiders, also 27th in open field rank which speaks more too the RBs ability and they're 26th in pass blocking. It's just not a good situation for Miller.
Antonio Gates - before y'all get hyped about Henry being out - Gates doesn't have much left in the tank, he'll probably be a package type player - you're banking on a TD with Gates.
Jason Witten vs. SEA - Bobby Wagner should be healthier and he's an amazing cover LB - K.J. Wright might also be back, he sufffered a conco in Week 14 so he's had some time to rest after missing Week 15. SEA has been pretty lockdown this year against TEs, 7th fewest FPs to the position over their last 4 games, they're giving up 17 receving yards to the opposing TEs 0 touchdowns... The bigger story here is Zeke being back to, look for him to get a ton of work and eat up this clock.