Fantasy Football Week 15 - YouTube Notes

by Nick Ercolano December 13, 2017

Fantasy Football Week 15 - YouTube Notes

Injuries

Aaron Rodgers (Shoulder)

  • Greeted us with a beautiful IG post of him in the hospital bed, made me feel real warm. He should be under center, 7-6, could run table and get in the playoffs. Plays @CAR, who on paper is a tough matchup but I want Rodgers in my lineup. They've allowed the 10th fewest FPs to QBs, but they've allowed over 305 total yards/game and 6 TDs to QBs over L3 games.
  • It's obviously a huge boost to who was formally known as Jordy Nelson. We check out splits for Davante and Jordy, not much change for Adams, still a high end WR2, Jordy will be right back in that discussion immediately, we have way too big of a sample size of these two together to be hesitant.

Carson Wentz (Knee)

  • Torn ACL - did a poll on twitter which was the biggest kick in the dick to a fan base (Wentz, Watson, 28-3) 28-3 obviously won with like 42% of the votes, fuck yall. Go follow me on Twitter if you're not already fam.
  • So Nick Foles is in, question is which Nick Foles we gettin here. He came in after Wentz went down and didn't look good 6-11 for 42 yards. We've obviously seen Foles have success in the League (it's so swaggy when people call it "the league" or the nba "the association"). Anywho, Foles is actually in a really good spot if you're in a pickle. They've got a great supporting cast in Philly, they're a top-12 PB team per FO, but more importantly he plays the Giants and Raiders to end the fantasy szn. NYG has allowed the single most FPs to QBs, 2nd most yards allowed, tied for most TDs, top 4 in 20+ and 40+ pass plays allowed and now are probably without Landon Collins PFF's #8 overall grade safety on the szn. Foles is definitely on the streaming radar in Week 15.
  • I looked at the target splits in his 11 passes last week - Jeffery saw 3, Agholor 3, Torrey Smith 2, Burton/Ajayi/Blount 1. It's a small sample size so it'd be dumb of me to analyze but just for your information.

Tyrod Taylor (Knee)

  • He's practicing this week and should be starting Week 15 at home versus Miami, I talked about him a lot in my WW sheet so go read that and why I think he's a good streaming option this week.

Josh McCown (Hand)

  • A shed a tear for my guy McCown, a true warrior. He's out for the year with the broken left hand that needs surgery. Bryce Petty will take over as QB. Initial thoughts are basically that you can't play anyone in this pass offense, but I went back bc I thought I remembered in this preszn when Robby Anderson was on my list of WR sleepers, him and Petty had a lil thing thing last year. Petty started 4 games in 2016 - show splits. Not necessarily throwing robby Anderson into the waiver pool. I think he's definitely still a WR3 in Week 15 against NO. 

Tom Savage (Concussion)

  • Barstools IG caption for Tom Savage was like the NFL would have let JFK return to the game lol. He's in the protocol, T.J. Yates will be the QB - doesn't change much for me. DHop is WR1, don't really want anyone else other than Miller.

      Adrian Peterson (Neck)

      • Missed another game, looks like he's far off from coming back but idk. If he misses another game, K-Willy will take over as the back again. He had 21 touches for 88 yards in Week 14. That's 37 touches over their last 2. The Skins just gave up 130+ yards and a score to Melvin and Ekeler and 150+ and 2 scores to the Cowboys backs two weeks ago. K-Will will be a solid RB2/3 if AP sits again.

      Joe Mixon (Concussion)

      • Still in the conco protocol, so the bigger story is Gio. 11-62 on the ground 6/8 for 68 yards passing - 130 total yards. Super tough matchup on the road in Minnesota, but if Mixon is gone, Gio's floor is an RB2 based on workload, you want him in your lineup for sure. Id say the same thing for Mixon if he's back, but a little bit of a lower ceiling/floor. 

      Ameer Abdullah (Neck)

      • Practicing in full, should be back for Week 15 game at home against Chicago. It's not an enticing matchup for any of the backs for DET. Theo was good without AA, if for some crazy reason AA is out again, fire theo up as a high RB2. If AA is back, I honestly don't hate him as a flex play he put up 12 fantasy points against the Bears in Week 11, he's gonna return as the primary ball carrier again so. They're 6 point favs, good game script fo Abdullah.

        Alvin Kamara (Concussion)

        • The shot that cost many people fantasy playoffs. He should be cleared for Week 15 against the Jets monitor reports and get him and Ingram in your lineups.

            Amari Cooper (Concussion + Ankle)

            • Left Week 14 after reaggravating the ankle injury he entered the game with. They play the Cowboys in Week 15 - with Cooper probably out, Crabtree is in the WR1 conversation. Derek Carr sucks tbh, but Crab will get a ton of volume and DAL pass d is one to exploit.

              Robert Woods (Shoulder)

              • Expected to return in Week 15 against the beat up Seahawks defense, after missing the Rams last 3 games. The SEA d has given up the 7th most FPs to WRs on the year, but this roster they're sporting now would be worse at much less than full strength. I'm honestly ok with putting in any and all of the LAR WRs in Week 15, it should be a shootout with SEA offense playing well, they both allow a ton of points. Look at last week, SEA allowed 3 different Jaguars receivers to have good games - Dede W (5-81-1), Keenan Cole (3-99-1), Marqise Lee (5-65). I think Woods and Kupp are both low WR2s, Watkins slightly less value but I'm not necessarily shying away from any of them.

              Allen Hurns (Hamstring)

              • Not practicing, again leaves it open for Dede and M Lee to dominate. Dede has become the WR1 here, has 27 targets to Lee's 17 over L3 games - Both guys have a really solid floor, they get a tremendous home matchup versus Houston, Bortles has actually been very good at home this year statistically speaking. I like both guys as WR2/flex options.

              Zach Ertz (Concussion)

              • Ertz should return after missing last week, Burton stepped in and went off but it's obviously Ertzs' job when healthy. He's out of the protocol. He gets a game with the giants next week, again landon collins is out, the giants have been much better against TEs as of late but were brutal to begin the year. Fire Ertz back up as a TE1.

              Defensive Player Injuries

              Landon Collins (Giants - S)

              • Was seen in a walking boot after Week 14 game. He's PFFs #8 overall graded safety, not as good as last szn but still a lone bright spot on this defense. Not sure what's actually wrong, but no need to push it for NYG - get the Eagles, it'll be a boost for Foles, Ertz, etc.

              Bobby Wagner (Seahawks - LB)

              • A huge hit to this already depleted defense, suffered a hamstring injury. He was dealing with this injury for the last few weeks and reaggravated it in this game and left vs the Jags - they scored on their next two offensive plays. We don't have a clear status on his injury or status for Week 15 but he's probably gonna miss some time. 
              • Wagner was PFF's #1 overall graded LB this year #3 in rush defense ,#1 in coverage and #6 in pass rush - that's INSANE. This defense is already without K.J. Wright at LB - it's a big boost for Goff, Gurley and this Rams offense if Wagner is out.

              Gerald McCoy (Bucs - DL)

              • Injured his bicep, initial fear was a tear but apparently he wants to play through it idk these fucking guys in the NFL man they're out of their minds. According to Rotoworld he essentially admitted he was playing with one arm last week so we're not getting a real Gerald McCoy even if he does play - get it the real McCoy ok brb gonna go headbutt a knife. Mccoy was PFF's #5 grade d lineman and probably one of the only bright spots on this defensive front. Devonta and Tevin Coleman should dismantle this d. Freeman's an RB1, Coleman I'm very much okay with in your flex.

              As you should know by now, the notable WR/CB matchup sheet comes out tomorrow around noonish - if you haven't yet signed up for my newsletter go head over to the site, BDGEat.com - on the home page drop your info and you'll get an email every Tuesday (Waiver Wire + Murky RB Sheet) and Thursday (Weekly Video + Notable WR/CB Matchup Sheet) goes up.

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              Guys I Love This Week

              Jared Goff - QB (@ SEA)

              • Basically for the reasons I listed above - will have his WRs at full strength while SEA defense is far from it. 380 total yards and a score to Wenxt two weeks ago, 270 and 2 scores to Bortles last week. Suprisingly SEA is struggling on defense at home - over L4 they've given up 326 yards of total offense to opposing QBs and 7 passing scores. If Wagner is out, look for Goff to go bonkers.

              Aaron Rodgers - QB (@ CAR)

              • Already went in about Aaron Rodgers, you're starting him if he's on your team.

              WRs I'll talk about in my WR/CB matchup column dropping later today.

              Christian McCaffrey - RB (GB)

              • I went on record last week and said CMac is getting 60 total yards and 0 touchdowns on my mama. Go byke and watch the film. Final stats - 53 total yards 0 touchdowns.
              • This week - gorgeous matchup at home versus Green Bay. They've been killed by running backs as of late, especially through the air. On the szn allowing 7th most FPs to RBs, 2nd most RB receptions (6.2/game), 6th most RB rec yards (just under 50). over their last 4 games, they've given up 8.25 catches and 67 yards receiving to opposing RBs.
              • Could be a shootout with Rodgers back, great spot for McCaffrey to put up a 15+ spot in fantasy.

              Tevin Coleman (Spoke on already).

              Rex Burkhead - RB (@PIT) 

              • Again on this list - for the third straight week - all this guy does is score and he gets a favorable matchup against PIT. Over under is already at 54, the highest of the week. Burkhead is hevaily involved down by the goal-line and in the passing game. Now with Ryan Shazier out, who was PFF's 7th overall graded pass coverage LB, we saw the ravens RBs run rampant on the Steelers. They rushed for 152 yards and 3 scores but more importantly caught 8 passes for 107 yards, I think it's a good bet Burk/Lewis combine for similar numbers. Burk > Lewis for Week 15.

                 - Kyle Rudolph - TE (CIN) 

                • Rudolph's been on fire as of late, scoring 4 times in the past 3 games, 11 catches and 140 yards in that span. Get's a good matchup versus Cincy who is super banged up on defense. they went without Pacman, Dre Kirpatr, Burfit and their starting safety Shawn Williams. They don't really have many good coverage players to cover Rudolph, everyone grades out very poorly according to PFF. Burfict is definitey a better coverage guy then he's grading out in PFF so it's a big boost to Rudolph if he can't go. Without him last week they let up 6-76-1 to Adam Sheehan and Dion Sims. They really haven't played any decent TEs this year, like almsot none. They went against Delanie in Week 10 - he went 6-63, Doyle went 12-121-1 in Week 8. Besides that it's been almost all backups and very below avg TEs. Rudolph could give them some serious problems on Sunday.

                 

                  Guys I Hate This Week

                  Alex Smith (vs. LAC)

                  • The LA pass defense has been absolutely ridiculous as of late. They've let up 1 300 yard passer on the year and haven't had someone throw multiple TD passes since Week 5. But they've had two guys throw 0 since that time. They're allowing just 176 passing yards over their last 4 games, have only allowed 3 scores and 4 interceptions. Smith has been anything but consistent recently. I expect Casey Hayward to shadow Tyreek Hill and let the entire rest of the defense focus in on Kelce. The two teams played in Week 3 and Smith threw for 155 yards. Hill got deep for a 30 yard in that one, otherwise they had nothing. Kelce caught 1 ball for 1 yard. If they don't let up a big play to Hill, Smith will struggle.

                  Frank Gore (vs. DEN)

                  • Denver run d - getting Peko back - 8th fewest FPs to RBs. What else scares me is the fact that Gore is coming off 36 carries in Week 14 - this dude is 30 fucking 4 years old, he could be some of your fathers. They play on Thursday night - that's 3 days rest. The Broncos are expected to get back Domata Peko for Week 15 which is a boost to this run defense big time. I looked back at Gore over the last 3 seasons, in games following games he carried the ball at least 20 times, the next game he averages 60.5 rushing yards. Kenyan Drake's 120 yards was the first time someone surpassed 77 yards on them since Week 6. I don't like Gore at all this week.

                  Both TEN RBs (@ SF) 

                  • You might htink SF is a vaccuum for fantasy RBs, but they've been very solid over the past month of the szn. It's probably heavily due to their stud rookie Reuben Foster returning four or five weeks ago. He's the 4th overall graded run stopping LB in the NFL. We really never know what kind of split we're getting. DeMarco was back to playing 70% of the snaps again but was terrible, as was Henry but he scored. It's impossible to tell I would only play them if I needed a flex guy, but I'm not comfortable with them. Mariota is a little banged up in the knee as well, so it's possible he can't move around as well, defenses can focus more on the RBs then him.

                  Travis Kelce (vs. LAC)

                  • Call me crazy man --- I basically broke it down for you in Alex Smith's piece. When you have a guy like Hayward that can take Tyreek Hill out of the game, it's not very hard for defenses to focus on someone like Kelce, which is what we saw in Week 3 when he caught one ball for one yard.

                  You cant like Tyler Kroft ot Cameron Brate this week either. Brate only played in 35% of the snaps last week, O.J. Howard has actually out-snapped him in 8-of-9 games now, I would rather play Howard over Brate. And Kroft just has a terrible matchup in MIN, not to mention he has 60 total yards over his last 5 games.



                    Nick Ercolano
                    Nick Ercolano

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