Fantasy Football Week 13 - YouTube Notes

by Nick Ercolano November 30, 2017

Fantasy Football Week 13 - YouTube Notes


Paxton Lynch (Ankle)

  • Out 2-4 weeks with a high ankle sprain, Trevor Siemian will be back under center. In 8 games this season, Trevvy Trev's averaging 227 passing yards with an 11:10 TD:INT ratio. Siemian's home vs. road splits this season have been night and day in 2017, averaging more than 23 FPs at home compared to just 12.3 on the road.
  • In Seimian's 8 games, the target share looks like this: D. Thomas - 27%, Sanders - 19.5%, Bennie Fowler - 16%, A.J. Derby 11%. Worth noting that with Derby on the I.R., the TE position has gotten about 17.5% of Siemian's targets (Virgil Green).
  • The Broncos have a real easy slate coming up traveling to Miami, before a home game vs NYJ and then @IND. 

Jameis Winston (Shoulder)

  • Winston will resume throwing again today and after positive MRI results, it seems like there's more than a 50/50 chance Winston suits up for their game @ GB on Sunday.
  • This Packers defense have allowed 4 of the last 5 QBs they've face to throw for more than 295 yards, only Joe Flacco failed to do so. In Winston's six full games at QB in 2017, he's thrown for 325+ yards in four of them. If he's reportedly close to 100% he'll be in the QB1 conversation. It's a big boost for Mike Evans too.

C.J. Beathard (Knee/Hip)

  • The rookie left the Niners Week 12 game against Seattle in the 4th with what is now diagnosed as a knee contusion and hip strain.

Jay Cutler (Concussion)

  • Cutler missed Week 12 with a concussion and we're unsure about his status for the Dolphins Week 13 game home versus Denver. Matt Moore filled in throwing for 215 yards, a touchdown and 2 interceptions against the Pats last week. If Cutler is back, I wouldn't hate throwing DeVante Parker into your lineup against this defense who'll be without Aqib Talib while he serves his 2-game suspension. Parker's been solid all year with Cutler under center but caught just a single pass on 3 targets for 5 yards last week. Consider Jarvis Landry and Parker both WR3s for Week 13.

Devonta Freeman (Concussion)

  • Are we sure at this point Devonta Freeman is better than Tevin Coleman at this point? At least for fantasy purposes.
  • In Freeman's two missed games, Coleman's turned 40 touches into 155 yards and 3 touchdowns. He's sitting firmly as fantasy's RB12 in 2017.
  • The Falcons will face a tough Minny defense allowing the 2nd fewest FPs to RBs on the szn, but if Freeman is out again I really don't give a fluck, Coleman is an RB1. If Freeman returns, both guys can't be trusted as anything more than RB2's with upside.

    Ty Montgomery/Aaron Jones

    • Both GB backs have missed the last two weeks, opening the door to rookie BYU product Jamaal Williams to serve as the featured back. Montgomery didn't practice at all last week so it's not a great sign for his Week 13 status. Jones' initial timetable to return was 3-6 weeks, so a return this week would be best case scenario.
    • In their absence (including Week 10, both TyMont & Jones left), Williams has received nearly 23 touches per game and has scored twice. If Mont and Jones are out again in Week 13, Williams will be an RB1 at home versus the Bucs. Tampa has been scorched by the run over the previous few weeks, allowing 97 yards and 2 tuddys to T. Coleman last week, 102 total yards to Damien Williams in Week 11, and about 6,000 total yards to Ingram and Kamara in Week 9.

    Damien Williams (Shoulder)

    • After suffering a dislocated shoulder, Williams has been ruled out for Week 13 and will likely miss more than one game, leaving Kenyan Drake as the featured back in Miami.
    • Drake has a tough matchup against the Broncos run defense who's play has declined as the year has gone on. They've given up 9 touchdowns to running backs over their last four games.
    • This defense took another big low on Sunday, defensive lineman Domata Peko for a week or so, he was having a great year stopping the run.
    • Drake will be a solid RB2 for Week 13 based on volume.

    Doug Martin (Concussion)

    • Martin lefts the Bucs Week 12 game in the first half with a concussion. Scraps were left to split between Quiz, Sims and Peyton Barber. Quiz saw the majority of carries after Douggie left, but Barber saw and converted to goal-line rushes for tuddys.
    • It's a backfield I'm completely avoiding if Martin is out. If he gets cleared, he'll be a low-end RB2. Desperate owners can plug in Quiz as an alright RB3/flex play in hopes of him taking advantage of a GB defense that's allowed the 7th most FPs to the running back position on the year. Wouldn't touch Sims or Barber with a condom on.

    JuJu Smith-Schuster (Hamstring)

    • After missing Week 12, the rookie revelation "has a chance" to play in Week 13 according to HC Mike Tomlin, but he didn't practice at all last week, suggesting otherwise. Keep your eye on practice reports if you own him.
    • JuJu's absence left the door open for Martavis to creep back into Big Ben's good graces. And he did that, grabbing 4-of-6 targets for 40 yards and a score. 
    • The Steelers will face off against the divisional rival Bengals at Cincy in what will be a really tough test for Big Ben as we're all aware of his home vs. road splits. That and the fact that Cincy has been stellar against the pass all season, allowing the 3rd fewest FPs to WRs. Antonio is, as always an elite WR1, but I wouldn't trust either Bryant of JuJu as more than a WR3 on Monday night.

    Amari Cooper (Concussion + Ankle)

    • Despite HC Jack Del Rio stating Cooper is "fine" following their Week 12 game, he's dealing with two seperate injuries and very well could miss their Week 13 game in Oakland versus the Giants. With Crabtree already suspended, Seth Roberts and even Cordarrelle Patterson will both be on the flex/WR4 radar based purely on opportunity, in an offense throwing the ball over 35 times a game against a defense without their top CB Janoris Jenkins.

    Kelvin Benjamin (Torn Miniscus)

    • Listed as day-to-day somehow, there's an 87% chance KBenj misses Week 13. It's a boost for both Zay Jones and Charles Clay. Clay has averaged nearly 8 more PPR fantasy points in games that Benjamin has not been in the lineup (5) than he has (3). Zay's numbers are similar regardless.

    Robert Woods (Shoulder)

    • With Woods expected to miss multiple weeks, we saw what both Watkins and Cooper Kupp are capable of in good matchups. Both Rams wideouts had big days in Week 12 against a Saints defense missing their top 2 CBs. In Week 13 they have a divisional game at home against the Cardinals who have given up the 9th most FPs to WRs in 2017. With Patrick Peterson likely draped on Watkins, Kupp is a really good play in this week. I'd consider him a high-end WR2 and Watkins a low-WR2 or high WR3.

    Rishard Matthews (Hamstring)

    • Shard missed Week 12 after tweaking his hammy in practice on Thursday and is listed day-to-day for the Titans Week 13 game at home against Houston. It was a prefect set up for first round pick WR Corey Davis to breakout but he finished with just 39 yards catching 4-of-4 targets. Like come on b, you hurt my heart here. And probably a lotta fantasy lineups. Btw I'm in the middle of listening to New Music Friday while I'm writing this, and Kodak Black's new song Codeine Dreaming SLAPS!!!
    • Matthews is questionable for Week 13. If he doesn't go, Davis will be another great spot to light up the scoreboard against a terrible Houston pass defense. Davis will be a high upside WR3 in that case. If Matthews goes, it's possible he'll be less than 100%, but as he's been all year he'll be the Titans top fantasy option at WR.
    • Delanie Walker would also get a big boost in light of Matthews' potential absence. He caught his first touchdown pass of the szn last week and has caught at least 4 passes and hit 63 yards receiving for the fifth straight game. He's a top-5 option at TE with or without Shard the gawd.

    Greg Olsen (Foot)

    • Olsen finally returned from his lotta week absence in Week 12 only to re-injure his foot and leave the game. After initial scares, he's repotedly okay and has a chance to suit up in Week 13 against the Saints. He caught just 1-of-4 targets for 10 yards in his return but he did see an endzone target.
    • That being said, after failing to play a full game, and the coaching staff coming out to say they want Olsen to play in 50% of their snaps, I don't love the spot for Olsen in Week 13. I'd play a handful of other fantasy TEs over the Carolina tight end.

    Jordan Reed (Hamstring)

    • Reed's soft as a Chinese paper lantern fam. He still isn't practicing for the 4th straight week. Safe to say he's gonna miss week 13.
    • Despite Vernon Davis shitting the bed in Week 12, he's still a TE1 option for Week 13 at Dallas. The Cowboys have given up a TD to opposing TEs in 3 of their last 4 games.

    Others Offensive Players

    Martellus Bennett (shoulder/hammy) - place on IR, no difference. Coby Fleener suffered his 5th career concussion, someone check this man out please.

    Notable Defensive Player Injuries

    Saints - Marshon Lattimore/Ken Crawley (CBs)

    • Lattimore, arguably the NFL's top CB this year, and only a rookie, missed his first game of the year with an ankle injury. He was spotted in a walking boot, so you'll have to keep an eye on reports this week. Crawley missed the game with an abdomen injury. No news on his status yet for Week 13. Jared Goff smacked around this secondary with both of their top CBs out in Week 12, going for 354 yards and two touchdowns. Cam Newton gets a big boost if one or both miss the game.

    Rashaan Melvin (Colts - CB)

    • Melvin, 28 years old randomly emerged as the Colts CB1 and has been solid this for most of the year. In Week 11 he shadowed and held Antonio Brown to 3 catches and 47 yards. He supposedly suffered a serious hand injury in Week 12 and he'll miss some time. The Colts were already a defense to attack, but this should make them a top-3 option for fantasy QBs and WRs. Marqise Lee will be a solid WR2 in Week 13.

    Domata Peko (Broncos - DL)

    • Peko was a big reason the Broncos run d had surprisingly been so dominant at least for most of the year. Peko's 80.5 PFF grade to date is the highest he's ever reached in his 11-szn career. He's set to miss 1-2 weeks with a sprained MCL and he'll open up a few holes for Kenyan Drake the now-Dolphins featured back. He'll be in the RB2 conversation in Week 13.

    Falcons - Desmond Trufant/Brian Poole (CBs)

    • The Falcons lost their top CB (Trufant) and their slot (Poole) in Week 12. Trufant with a concussion, Poole with a minor back injury. There's a chance both play next week when the Vikings travel to Atlanta. Depending on their availability, it could be a major boost for Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen, along with Case Keenum who look to keep the Vikes on the right track.

    Janoris Jenkins (Giants - CB)

    • Jenkins is supposed to miss some time, if not the entire rest of season. If Cooper can play, he'll be in a good spot here without Crabtree.

    William Hayes (Dolphins - DL)

    • Top 5 run stopping grade per PFF. They weren't good to begin with but we saw what it'll be like against the Pats on Sunday. Dion Lewis led the Pats with 115 yards on just 12 carries, RBs and WRs combined for 200 rushing yards averaging 6.1 yards per carry. Look for the duo of Booker and Anderson to have a bit more success then they've had in recent weeks versus Miami in Week 13.

    Leonard Floyd (Bears - DL)

    • What started as an underrated defense has lost any mojo it had going for them thanks to various injuries and suspensions. Floyd is the next to go, he was placed on I.R. on Friday, finishing the szn with 5.5 sacks through 10 games. The Bears were destroyed by both the Eagles both through the air (244 yards - 3 TDs) and via the ground game (176 rushing yards - 5.3 ypc). They'll be a defense to attack down the stretch.


      As you should know by now, the notable WR/CB matchup sheet comes out tomorrow around noonish - if you haven't yet signed up for my newsletter go head over to the site, - on the home page drop your info and you'll get an email every Tuesday (Waiver Wire + Murky RB Sheet) and Thursday (Weekly Video + Notable WR/CB Matchup Sheet) goes up.


      Guys I Love This Week

      Philip Rivers - QB (vs. CLV) - 46% started

      • Great matchup at home against Cleveland. Rivers and the Chargers have been on absolute fire. Averaging 307 passing yards/game over L3, with 7 passing touchdowns. The Browns have allowed the 7th most FPs to the QB position on the szn. I just think this is an easy spot to start Rivers here. The Browns getting Josh Gordon back, who knows maybe we have some shootout potential. Their defense is already without Jamie Collins and their top rusher Emmanuel Ogbah so. 

      Jamies Winston - QB (@GB)

      • Of course, it's highly dependent on him suiting up, but as I mentioned before, Winston has been good this year for fantasy and he gets a great matchup at Green Bay.

      WRs I'll talk about in my WR/CB matchup column dropping later today.

      Dion Lewis/Rex Burkhead - RB (@BUF)

      • We've seen the Pats phase James White basically out of the picture, it's been three straight weeks in which he's played significantly less snaps than both Lewis and Burkhead. I'm a fan of both RBs this week, I'd be fine playing either of them as we saw both of them produce last week, Lewis over 115 yards and Burkhead with two scores. Buffalo is allowing the 3rd most fantasy points to the RB position and the single most rush TDs per game (1.2) to the RB position. As heavy favorites, look for NE to utilize both guys heavily in the ground game.

      Perine/Alex Collins/Jamaal Williams - all based on matchup and volume.

      Jared Cook - TE (NYG)

      • Love the spot here against the NYG pass defense who despite locking down Vernon last week has been dreadful against TEs this year and without Crabtree, and possibly Cooper, Cook should easily see 8+ targets. He has at least 5 in five straight games.

      Jack Doyle - TE (IND)

      • Not sure people realize how good Doyle has been for the Colts as of late. He's caught at least 6 passes in 5 of their last six games and is TE6 since returning from the game he missed in Week 5. Over his last three road games, he's averaging over 11 targets, 9 receptions, 78 receiving yards and has scored in two of three games. He gets a JAX pass d whose "weakness" is against the TE. They've allowed the 12th most FPs to the position on the year and are coming off a game in which they let Ricky the gawd Seals Jones post a 4-72-1 on them.

      Guys I Hate This Week

      Matthew Stafford (@BAL) - 40% Started

      • I feel like people might disregard this matchup and start Stafford. Don't do that. Despite him riding a fantasy hot streak. He's averaging 316 passing yards over his L6 games and has thrown multi TDs in 5/6, but yea you need to sit him.
      • This BAL pass d is no joke, allowing the 2nd fewest FPs to QBs on the year. They haven't allowed a QB to throw for more than 255 yards and have only allowed two QBs to throw for multi TDs in a game. Over their last five games, the Ravens have posted a 2:9 TD:INT ratio. They have 11 sacks over their last 3 games while the Lions have given up 10 in that span. Staff will be under pressure a lot and led by the play of Jimmy Smith the Ravens outside CBs will look to lock down the DET WRs.

      - Already mentioned Big Ben, on the road versus one of the top pass defenses, possibly without JuJu again. I'll pass.

      Jay Ajayi (@SEA) - 95% Started

      • Stellar run defense, not sense of consistency with backfield touches.


        Nick Ercolano
        Nick Ercolano


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