Fantasy Football Week 12 - YouTube Notes

by Nick Ercolano November 23, 2017

Fantasy Football Week 12 - YouTube Notes

List of Tings

  • Key Injuries
  • Strength of Schedule ROS/Playoffs
  • QBs
  • RBs
  • WRs
  • Turkey Day #LoTCs

    I. Injuries

    Jameis Winston (Shoulder)

    • Out again - Ryan Fitzpatrick will remain the starter. Thew for 275 yards and a pair a tittys i mean tuddys against a pillow soft Miami secondary. They play on the road at Atlanta, who's pass rush as of late has been significantly better but still a defense that makes Harvard boy stream-worthy. Fitz is only owned in 9% of Yahoo leagues right now. He's passed for at least 275 yards and two scores in 2-of-3 games this year. Only the Oakland Raiders who have yet to record an interception in 2017 have less picks than the Falcons defense.

    Jacoby Brissett (Concussion)

    • Brisket remains simmering in the pot they call the concussion protocol, but Colts HC Chuck Pagano believes that (the 2nd greatest) JB on planet Earth will suit up for their matchup at home against divisional foe Tennessee Titans. You can check out my waiver wire piece this week to see why I chose the Colts QB as my streamer of the week.

    Jay Cutler (Concussion)

    • Read above ^. Cutler is in the protocol and HC Adam Gase says Cutler is the starter if he's cleared to play in Foxborough for Week 12. As of Wednesday, Cutler still hasn't practiced. If he doesn't go, here are my thoughts on Matt Moore's fantasy outlook this week, along with the rest of the Dolphins key players.

    Devonta Freeman (Concussion)

    • He's still in the concussion protocol as of Wednesday AM but here's to hoping that he should be ready to roll for Week 12 versus a TB run defense allowing 107 rushing yards/game and only five teams have let up more runs of 20+ yards this season. They're also giving up almost six receptions/game to opposing RBs. Assuming Freeman is back, fire him up as an RB1 even with the low touch totals of his previous few games. Tevin Coleman will also be an RB1 if Freeman is out, but will fall back in line as an RB2/flex play. Coleman who was in line to see a major dropoff in efficiency compared to 2016 really hasn't. He's scored double-digit fantasy points (0.5 ppr) in 7-of-10 games and 7.9 in 9-of-10. Coleman has been one of the bigger surprises this year in my mind, pleasantly.

    Chris Thompson (Broken Fibula)

    • A crushing blow to a talented kid in the midst of a career-szn. This leaves Samaje Perine as the top rushing option in the WAS backfield. Again, check my waiver wire column this week to see why Perine was my unquestioned number one waiver claim for Week 12.
    • The Redskins did go ahead and sign the 23-year old, former Oregon back, Byron Marshall off the Eagles practice squad to occupy that third down role. While far less talented, there's a gaping hole for opportunity to be had in the Skins bykefield. Prior to the injury, CT Crunch paced all NFL RBs in both receiving yards (510) and receiving touchdowns (4) despite being 7th in targets (51) and 9th in receptions (39). Marshall's made nothing out of nothing since entering the NFL but proved to be a super-productive hybrid back during his junior season at Oregon, catching 74 passes for 1,003 yards and 6 scores, adding another 392 yards and a tuddy with his legs. He's been injured, cut, you name it since that 2014 campaign, but again, there's opportunity to be had here and that's the name of the game in fantasy.
    • Perine will be a solid RB2 going forward and Marshall could provide some surprising flex value in PPR. Gruden had this to say about the yung gawd: "(He's) a bright kid and willing to learn," coach Jay Gruden said. "He’s not going to have much of a choice. He’s going to have to."

    D'Onta Foreman (Torn Achilles)

    • Foreman was looking like a yung Fournette on Sunday before tearing his achilles and whatnot. Someone's gonna have to fack check that because Foreman might be yunger than Fournette but who's counting besides the government.
    • Anywho, with Foreman done for the year, it only means more work for Lamar Miller who's already sitting at RB11 in fantasy on the szn, averaging just under 19 touches per game.
    • The Texans went and signed Andre Ellington after the Cardinals let him go which was a good move for them. Ellington will probably assume the role Foreman had, if not take even more of the passing-down work. He's not worthy of an add, it's just a good #football move by the Texans.

    Mike Davis (Groin)

    • He's already been ruled "unlikely" to play in Week 12 by Pete Carroll which means he almost certainly most definitely 60% of the time every time will not be suiting up.
    • Honestly dk why I'm flexing my finger muscles on this paragraph since J.D. McKissic played on basically 70% of the Seahawks snaps on Monday night against the Falcons. Another healthily scratched running back (Thomas Rawls) will fill in, drink and not do shit. Move along.}

    Sterling Shepard (Graines)

    • Its seems like all bad news coming from GMen camp on the talented sophomore wideout SS. McAdoo said on Tuesday that the WR is "not feeling well". The Giants have a Thanksgiving night game in Washington. He's trending in the wrong direction as of now but keep an eye on reports. Even with the volume he's been getting, Shepard will be just a WR3/flex play with the likelihood of heavy Josh Norman coverage if he does suit up. If Shep sits, no one on this team can be started and provide anything close to peace of mind outside of Evan Engram and Orleans Darkwa.

    Robert Woods (Shoulder)

    • Woods got hurt in the 4th quarter of the Rams Week 11 game against the Vikings. There had been initial speculation that Woods could miss the ROS but they'll settle with sidelining him for a "couple of weeks".
    • Woods has been dominated the teams receiving core this year, statistically speaking, on pace for a 74-1,125-6.4 season. 
    • This will be a slight downgrade to Jared Goff but should help Sammy Watkins and Cooper Kupp get more involved in the offense. Watkins seen more than 5 targets thrown his way since Week 3. Kupp is getting passes at him, but has yet to post more than 76 yards in a single game.
    • They get a home game versus NO and then travel to ARZ before heading back home for Philly in Week 14. Assuming Woods misses all 3, Kupp should be a steady WR3 throughout while Watkins should fluctuate depending on shadow coverage from Lattimore, Pat Pete and Ronald Darby.

    Kelvin Benjamin (Knee)

    • Initially fearing ACL damage, the Bills took a sigh or relief once we found out their new toy wideout had avoided any structural damage in the knee. We're still not sure how serious the injury is, but it's probably safe to assume he misses Buffalo's Week 12 game against Kansas City.
    • Benjamin seamed to be a big piece of this offense before succumbing to the knee issue. He saw a team-high 6 targets in his first game suiting up for Buffalo in Week 10, and left on the opening drive after catching a 20-yard pass.
    • With Tyrod back under center this week after Peterman's 5-INT NFL debut, it'll be a slight boost to Charles Clay's value as one of the only real passing options on the team. 
    • Rookie disappointment Zay Jones has come alive as of late though, seeing 7 targets in each of his last two games (missed Week 10), reeling in 10 of them for 118 yards and a score. He became the default WR1 with Benjy and Matthews both sidelined, but we have also seen him in that position earlier this year and he disappointed mightily so I'm not tryna get cute and throw him in my lineup. The coaching staff was "optomistic" abut Matthews suiting up last week which gives him a high chance of playing at Arrowhead in Week 12. I'm no excited to start either of them but would be fine playing Clay if I needed to.

    Jordan Reed (hamstring)

    • Reed hasn't played since Week 8 and he hasn't practiced yet this week. Being that the Skins are playing against the Giants on Thanksgiving, it'd be almost impossible for him to suit up. 
    • Vernon Davis should be started everywhere against this Giants defense. NYG has allowed the single most fantasy points to TEs in 2017. Ironically, last week in their 12-9 win over the Chiefs, this was the first time all year they hadn't let up a score to the opposing TE position. But don't worry, Kelce still dropped a 8-109 spot on them. 
    • Here are Davis' numbers with vs. without Reed this season:
    • Vernon is a top 5, must-start option in Week 12.

    Greg Olsen (Foot)

    • Still unowned in 21% of Yahoo leagues, the all-world tight end plans to return in Week 12 (as long as there are no set backs) to face the Jets, a defense who's been more than generous to the TE position this year in fantasy.
    • With Kelvin Benjamin gone and Curtis Samuel out of the picture, it would make sense that Olsen would step right back into place as one of Cam's top receiving options. 
    • But we're still unclear whether or not Olsen will be on a snap count in his first game back since Week 2, and he wasn't particularly great in the beginning of the season, so it might be wise to hold off on Olsen regaining his TE1 status immediately.
    • A couple guys I would start over Greg Olsen in Week 12: Vernon Davis, Evan Engram, Jared Cook, Kyle Rudolph, Tyler Kroft.
    • A couple guys I would start Greg Olsen over in Week 12: Cameron Brate, Jack Doyle, Jason Witten, ASJ, Hunter Henry.

    WRs that we thought would matter at this point but don't:

    Terrelle Pryor - placed on IR (ankle), was already phased out prior to surgery, cementing Josh Docston as the outside WR1.

    Allen Hurns - Isn't practicing this week (ankle) and probably won't suit up in Week 12. Marqise Lee and Dede Westbrook should see a boost in targets and snaps. Dede might actually be the play here with Patrick Peterson most likely shadowing Lee.

    John Brown - Bruce Arians is ready give rookie Chad Williams a shot in Brown's absence (toe). Williams received a lot of preszn buzz so he's a name to keep an eye on in if you're in a dynasty league.

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      Strength of Schedule (ROS)/Playoff Matchups 

      Head over to this link - FFToday SOS for Fantasy Football - walk with me talk with me.

      Quarterbacks

      At this point, most of your trade deadlines are in the rearview and you're working with what you got at QB, or streaming. The numbers in the parenthesis are the total points that the opposing team has given up to the given position this year, so Team X (5), would mean that Team X has given up the 5th most FPs to QBs in 2017 so far. There are a few QBs whose ROS SOS or playoff schedule stick out to me:

      1. Dak Prescott: After a tough Week 12 matchup vs LAC (23), the Cowboys face Washington (5) at home who have given up at least 300 yards of offense and multiple touchdowns to the opposing QB in 4 of their last 5 games. After WAS, they get the putrid NYG (3) pass d before going back to home to face Oakland (10) who have allowed 310+ passing yards and 3 passing scores to 3 of their last 4 QBs. In Week 16, Dak will get a home game versus Seattle, with Zeke back, against a non-so intimidating, banged up pass defense. Over Seattles last 4 games, they've given up on average 300.3 total yards and almost two passing touchdowns/game to opposing QBs. It's a gorgeous 4-game slate to ride Prescott to a chip.
      2. Philip Rivers: Another QB who will benefit from an easy ROS schedule. Here are the Chargers next five (5) games (Week 12-16): @DAL (15), CLV (12), WAS (5), @KC (9), @NYJ (13). By the time fantasy championships roll around, the Jets will have absolutely nothing to play for, look for Rivers to go bonkers in the finale.
      3. Russell Wilson: Wilson has been a fantasy hero over the second half of the season and is sitting at QB1 overall, but it'll be tough to keep those numbers up down the stretch for the magician of a quarterback. Following a gorgeous Week 12 matchup against divisional foe San Fran, Wilson gets arguably the toughest stretch of pass defenses one could find. In Week 13, he'll take on Philly who were already a bottom-12 opponent for QBs, but whose front 7 is only getting stronger and the return of Ronald Darby sures up their weakest link, the secondary. It's not surprise that the Seahawks line is (one of) their main weakness on of the offensive side of the ball, an area Philly will look to demolish. The Eagles have sacked the opposing QB 15 times over their last four games and have allowed just 173 passing yards and two touchdowns, compared to 7 interceptions over their last 3. After Philly, Wilson and the Hawks travel to Jacksonville to take on the league's #1 pass defense, need I say more. They'll head back home after JAX to face divisional rivals LAR (28). In their first matchup earlier this season, Wilson failed to reach 200 passing yards and matched his single passing touchdown with an interception, feeding your fantasy lineup a whopping 9.92 fantasy points, AKA you out the playoffs fam. If you somehow make it through all of that, Wilson will get a plus matchup against Dallas who haven't been a gaping hole for QBs surpisingly this year. Zeke will be back this game which will probably mean more ground and pound, clock ticking off, yada yada yada. Wilson can produce in this spot, if he makes it here.

       Running Backs

      1. Kareem Hunt - Give up on the yung gawd AT YOUR OWN RISK. Next 5 games? BUF (2), @NYJ (24), OAK (5), LAC (3), MIA (15). Lemme repeat those last 3 - OAK, LAC, MIA... at HOME. Outside of NYJ all of those matchups are super friendly to fantasy RBs. Hate on Hunt all you want but your opinion of him is probably wrong. We can cancel out the first 4 weeks of the season, he still leads the NFL in tackles alluded (21) from Week 5 on. In that time he's top-12 in RB targets, receptions and receiving yards. The scoring opportunities have been few and far between but he should be able to right the ship against a BUF team that has been absolutely dismantled by the Chargers and Saints over the last two games. All five Hunt's remaning opponent's allow 4.1 yards per carry or worse and outside of Miami (who ranks 12th), all of these teams are top-10 in number of rushes of 20+ yards allowed to RBs on the year, an area Hunt went bonkers with in the beginning of the year. Every single one of these teams is in the bottom-7 in terms of rushes allowed of 40+ yards. Again, since Week 5, Hunt has still seen 92% of running back carries in this backfield and 60% of their targets. There's no reason to avoid Hunt going forward.
      2. Jordan Howard - After a tough matchup in Week 12 @ Philly, Howard and the Bears get to face SF, CIN, DET and then CLV in Week 16. The first three games should result in big time fantasy numbers for Jordan Howard, and Tarik Cohen alike. They all rank in the bottom-12 of fantasy points allowed to RBs, SF giving up the most, DET - 6th and Cincy - 12th. Cleveland's another story, statistically the best NFL defense versus the run, but Howard should at least get you to the big dance. San Fran is allowing the most rushing yards/game to opposing RBs (117), DET has allowed the most rushing TDs to RBs (1/game) and Cincy ranks in the bottom-12 of most categories while also allowing the 4th most RB receptions per game (6.3).
      3. Todd Gurley - Gurley's slate down the stretch is brutal - NO, @ARZ, PHI, @SEA, @TEN. The Saints are definitely beatable by ground, but the rest of Gurley's matchups are against teams allowing 3.9 ypc or worse. ARZ, PHI and TEN are all top-5. In Week 16, your championship game, Gurley goes against arguably the NFL's best run d at Tennessee. Allowing just 3.6 yards per carry to opposing rushers, Tennessee has allowed a league-low one (1) run to go for more than 20 yards this season and haven't allowed a single rush of 40+ yards. Before he gets to TEN, he'll go to Arizona to take on a Cardinals d that has only allowed one runner to go over 80 yards and then versus Philly, who's elite front-7 are giving up the 3rd fewest FPs to RBs and have only allowed two RBs all season to surpass 38 rushing yards...

      Wide Receivers  

      1. A.J. Green - Green's next three go CLV, PIT, CHI before heading to Minnesota and then finishing off the fantasy season with a home matchup against Detroit. The only "soft" spot in this slate of games is the middle one versus CHI. For as bad as the Browns have been, they're giving up the 7th fewest FPs to the WR position. They've been pretty touchdown friendly, but haven't allowed a 100-yard WR since Week 3 (T.Y. Hilton). PIT has been one of the best pass defenses all season long, allowing the 3rd fewest points to WRs, only behind JAX and BALT. Green went 3-41 in their first matchup earlier this year. The Steelers rank 5th overall in DVOA vs. WR1s per Football Outsiders. Chicago is much better at home than on the road, but they, like Cleveland have only allowed a single 100-yard WR, and it was Antonio Brown. Since Week 4, they've only allowed 2 WRs to score TDs. I don't think I need to talk much about how he'll be shadowed by Xavier Rhodes in Week 15 and Darius Slay in Week 16.
      2. Marvin Jones - It's been hard to take this man out of your lineup as of recent weeks, but it's about to get much easier. Over the Lions' next 5 games, Jones will face off against Xavier Rhodes and Minny, Baltimore, TB, CHI, CIN. TB is the lone bright spot here. Min and BAL are the obvious tough ones. CHI as explained in the A.J. Green section isn't as easy as believed and Cincy is another team that's been fantastic at defending the pass all year, allowing the 5th fewest FPs to WRs, 6th fewest receiving yards per game to WRs and the 7th fewest TDs. Look for Jones' successful 2017 campaign to stall out a bit over the final stretch of the szn.
      3. Corey Davis/Rishard Matthews - With both Davis and Mariota at full health, the perfect storm has risen as the Titans go against arguably the easiest schedule of pass defenses down the road: @IND (6), HOU (5), @ARZ (7), @SF (11), LAR (24). The first four games come against teams allowing 257+ receiving yards per game to opponents wideouts. All four of those teams are among the top-6 teams in the NFL in terms of passing plays allowed of 40+ yards. Mariota and these wideouts should pick apart these weak squads. Look at both of these guys as WR2/3's down the stretch.

      #LoTCs

      ANNNND we're bringing it way byke from the dead, my LoTCs for y'all gambling folks. Last time I did this was back in Week 8.

      As far as I'm concerned, any win percentage over 51% is a DUB.

      Record on the Season (12-14)

      Week 1

      1. NYJ +10 @ BUF = W
      2. ATL vs. CHI under 48.5 = W
      3. TEN -2.5 vs. OAK = L

      Week 2

      1. NYJ @ OAK over 43.5 = W
      2. LAC -4 vs. MIA = L
      3. MIN @ PIT over 45.5 = N/A (Before Bradford was ruled out)

      Week 3

      1. LAR @ SF over 39.5 = W
      2. PHI -6 vs. NYG = L
      3. DAL @ ARZ over 46.5 = L

      Week 4 (Collab w/ Adam Pfeifer no picks)

      Week 5

      1. BUF @ CIN over 38.5 = L
      2. DET -3 vs. CAR = L
      3. GB +2 @ DAL = W

      Week 6

      1. DET @ NO over 49.5 = W
      2. SF @ WAS over 46.5 = W
      3. SF +10 @ WAS = W
      4. LAR @ JAX under 42.5 = L (only scored 44 despite scoring 14 in the first 15 seconds)
      5. NE @ NYJ over 47.5 = L
      6. CLV +10 @ HOU = L

      Week 7

      1. TEN @ CLV over 46.5 = L
      2. BAL +5.5 @ MIN = L
      3. NYJ @ MIA over 38.5 = W

      Week 8

      1. SEA -5.5 vs. HOU = L
      2. DAL @ WAS over 50.5 = W
      3. PHI -12.5 vs. SF = W

      Week 11

      1. CLV +7.5 vs. JAX = L
      2. LAC -4 vs. BUF = W
      3. NE @ OAK over 52.5 = L
      4. DAL +3.5 vs. PHI = L

      Week 12

      1. WAS -7 vs. NYG
      2. IND vs. TEN over 46
      3. BUF @ KC over 46.5
      4. NO +2.5 @ LAR


      Nick Ercolano
      Nick Ercolano

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