Fantasy Football Week 12 - Top Waiver Wire Adds

by Nick Ercolano November 21, 2017 1 Comment

Fantasy Football Week 12 - Top Waiver Wire Adds

Every Tuesday afternoon I'll send this sheet out to the interwebs, highlighting this week's top waiver wire pick-ups.
Criteria to Make this List:
  • All players must be owned in less than 50% of Yahoo Leagues.
  • FAAB is based on $100 budget. Y'all can do the simple math if your league isn't $100... The first bullet for each player is how much I would recommend spending on your league.
  • Is this FA Worthy of your top waiver wire claim?​ The second bullet is whether or not I would recommend spending your #1 WW claim on this player.

Sorry for any typos, I'v g0t no tyme to proophread.

Quarterbacks

    Josh McCown (34% Owned) - Jets

    • $1-3
    • I would NOT use #1 claim.
    • McCown's been one of the better streamers all szn and he'll be a popular one again in Week 12. Coming off a bye, JM will look to rebound from back-to-back one touchdown outings. 
    • The Jets are home against a Carolina pass d who's let up multiple touchdown passes in back-to-back games and in 6-of-10 games this szn.
    • His floor and ceiling are both probably within the 200-275 and 2 touchdown range... moral of this boring ass story - you could do worse.

    Jacoby Brissett (17% Owned) - Colts

    • $3-4
    • I would NOT use #1 claim.
    • Brissett's been sitting in the conco protocol since their Week 10 game against Pitt but the Colts QB had their Week 11 bye to recover and will hopefully be ready to roll in a plus matchup at home versus a Titans defense that just let up 300 passing yards and 4 touchdowns to Big Ben. The Titans have given up at least 260 passing yards and multiple touchdowns to each of the last 3 QBs they've face. They've allowed the most passing touchdowns (21) in the NFL.
    • On the flip side, Brissett is averaging 254 passing yards and 2 touchdowns over his last three games. He's only rushed for 25 yards total in his last three games, but he's rushed for 14+ yards in 7-of-9 games this year, the rushing upside is always there.
    • Antonio Brown ripped apart this defenses for a lil 10-144-3 game in Week 11, and Indy happens to have a WR on their squad with a similar skillset to AB, the best WR in the NFL.
    • Brissett is my top QB stream in Week 12.

    Matt Moore (1% Owned) - Dolphins

    • $1-2
    • I would NOT use #1 claim.
    • Jay Cutler left Miami's game with an injury and Matt Moore came in and did work, drink.
    • Cutler went into the concussion protocol on a hit that happened in the last play of the first half. Enter Matt Moore, to the tune of 282 passing yards and a touchdown in one half of play.
    • We'll have to keep an eye the reports on Cutler's conco, but Moore will get a juicy matchup against the Patriots who are still sitting at the bottom of the list in just about every NFL pass defense category. They've given up the 2nd most FPs to the QB position on the szn. They're allowing the single most passing yards per game (287.2), 2nd in passing plays allowed of 20+ yards. It's just all bad on this side of the ball.
    • Admittedly, the Patriots defense has been WAY better as of recent weeks, as they usually are, getting better as the szn progresses, but the line in this game should be around two touchdowns and garbage time points should be plentiful.

          Running Backs

            Samaje Perine (32% Owned) - Redskins

            • $ALL$
            • I WOULD use #1 claim. (#1 overall pickup this week)
            • The Skins will be without Rob Kelley and now, you hate to see it, the boy Chris Thompson for the rest of the szn after he fractured his fibula. This leaves almost nothing in Washington's backfield but the rookie RB from out of Oklahoma, Samaje Perine.
            • After a terrible start to the szn, I'm liking Perine more and more as a football player, and obviously as a fake football player. Over the Skins last 3 games, Perine has rushed for 161 yards on 34 carries (4.7 ypc). On Sunday, Perine stepped in as the featured back, turning 21 carries into 117 yards and catching another pass for 9 yards versus the Saints defense.
            • Without the top two backs, Perine has an RB2 floor going forward. He'll get almost all of the early down and goal-line work and is in line to get a huge bump in the passing game as well without CT crunch. Kirk Cousins and this offense are finding their groove  scoring 30 points in back-to-back games and their schedule stays breezy.
            • Perine will get NYG, DAL and LAC over his next 3, all three teams rank in the bottom-9 in yards per carry allowed to opposing rushers.
            • Perine is a must-add in all formats and could help a lot of owners make a playoff run over the coming weeks.

            Devontae Booker (7% Owned) - Broncos

            • $5-8
            • I would NOT use #1 claim.
            • Riding a 6-game losing streak for the first time in over 20 years, the Broncos are looking to shake things up on offense. One way to do it is by getting sophomore back Devontae Booker more involved, and grandpa Charles less.
            • That's what we saw Sunday in Denver's 20-17 loss to the Bengals when Booker out-touched (19-15) and out-produced (98-58) C.J. Anderson. The 19 touches were his highest total since Week 13 of the 2016 season (per Rotoworld). Booker also played in 60% of the teams snaps versus just 37% for Anderson, much of that had to do with the team trailing most of the 2nd half and Booker becoming the preferred pass-catching back here, but still notable nonetheless.
            • Booker returned from his preseason fractured wrist in Week 4, but didn't really get used until the following week. Since Week 5, through Sunday, Anderson has just 16 more touches than Booker but has been out-gained in total yards by Booker 319-287.
            • Both are going to continue to be used, C.J. is the early down back, Booker the 3rd down, pass-catching back with a decent mix of carries sprinkled in. At this point, I'd probably rather own Booker than C.J. in PPR formats going forward.
            • All five games left on the schedule are ones to attack - @OAK, @MIA, NYJ, @IND, @WAS.
            • Booker is a usable flex play going forward and might continue to chip into Anderson's workload, although it's unlikely he gives up goal-line duties.

            Danny Woodhead (49% Owned) - Ravens

            • $5-10 in PPR, $3-7 in standard.
            • I would NOT use #1 claim.
            • In his first game byke since Week 1, the head of wood was heavily involved in the passing game, catching 5-of-6 targets. He only turned the five receptions into 21 yards and his single rush for two yards, but the target total was good to see. 
            • Per Nathan Jahnke of PFF (@PFF_NateJahnke):
            • It's about time Allen's gotten phased out. Woodhead was second on the team in targets only behind Collins ironically who has been almost exclusively used on the ground in 2017. I expect Woody to be more and more involved as the year goes on.
            • Woodhead and the Ravens will get two plus matchups at home versus Houston and then Detroit over their next two weeks. Woodhead will be on the flex radar in PPR leagues. 

                  Wide Receivers

                    Corey Coleman (31% Owned) - Browns

                    • $6-10
                    • I would NOT use #1 claim.
                    • In his first game byke from breaking his hand, Coleman squared up with the best pass D in the league and stood his ground. CC snagged 6-of-11 targets for 80 yards against a Jacksonville defense who's only allowed one other WR (Hopkins) to surpass 70 receiving yards.
                    • The Browns have virtually no other weapons on the outside so Coleman should continue to see a shit ton of targets here, regardless of how inefficient this passing offense is. Coleman's 11 targets led all other Browns by at least 5 looks.
                    • His matchups don't get much easier, heading to Cincy who have allowed the 5th fewest fantasy points to WRs. Cincy hasn't let an opposing WR1 go over 75 yards this season. Hopkins had 73 in Week 2 and Marqise Lee had 75 in Week 9, but they needed 13 and 12 targets to get there, respectively.
                    • After Cincy, Coleman travels to LA to face off against Casey Hayward who will almost definitely shadow the Browns top wideout, plus Josh Gordon is "supposed" to return in Week 13, if everything goes right.
                    • He gets a good matchup against GB in Week 14 but will get right back to a toughie against Baltimore.
                    • I like Coleman a lot, but it's probably smart to temper expectations ROS.

                    Josh Doctson (27% Owned) - Redskins

                    • $5-8
                    • I would NOT use #1 claim.
                    • Another day at the office for Docston, seeing his target total rise and his overall production escalate. He caught 4-of-7 targets for 81 yards on Sunday at New Orleans. Kirk used him exactly how the Skins imagined he should be used when they drafted him - chucking up jump balls and letting the long, athletic 6-2 sophomore wideout with a 96 percentile catch radius go up and get them.
                    • The 81 yards was a career-high and he's seen 7 targets in back-to-back games even in tough matchups, aka, the WR/QB trust is growing.
                    • It's Doctson's third game in a row without finding paydirt, but the targets are there for the taking, after seeing two more endzone looks on Sunday. He's now top-5 in the NFL in team endzone target share (44% - according to playerprofiler.com).
                    • With Terrelle Pryor out of the way and Jordan Reed suffering a setback, Docston will continue to get a ton of opportunity and a much easier slate of games coming down the stretch.
                    • Doctson and the Skins get a Thanksgiving night matchup with division rival Giants who have been the opposite of stout against passing offenses.
                    • JD is a firm WR3 for Week 12 and 13 as they travel to Dallas. After that, the road gets bumpy again, Docston will have top face LAC (Hayward), ARZ (Peterson) and DEN (Talib) in 3 straight matchups, all during fantasy playoff time.

                    Danny Amendola (49% Owned) - Patriots

                    • $5-7
                    • I would NOT use #1 claim.
                    • With Chris Hogan being on the sideline, the other WRs are getting a chance to eat. Amendola got his fill on Sunday, grabbing 8-of-9 targets for 66 yards and a tuddy. Those are numbers you're happy with in any format.
                    • The Patriots play Miami in Week 12, and if Hogan sits again, Amendola has a chance to do some damage for the second week in a row. Backup Bucs QB Ryan Fitzpatrick just tore the Dolphins secondary up for 275 yards and two tuddys, safe to say Brady going for 500.

                    Marquise Goodwin (15% Owned) - 49ers

                    • $2-5
                    • I would NOT use #1 claim.
                    • With Pierre Garcon out, Goodwin looks to have taken over the WR1 role by default. A week after leading all SF WRs with 8 targets and 68 receiving yards, Goodwin struck the Giants with an 83-yard touchdown catch down the middle of the field, albeit it was his only catch of the day. It does show what he's capable of though. 
                    • Goodwin has ridiculous, 4.27, speed and should continue to get a couple of deep targets each game. We're not sure who the QB for the 9ers is going to be coming off their Week 11 bye, but between Beathard and Garoppolo I don't think it will make much difference to Goodwin's outlook.
                    • Following their Week 11 bye, SF will gets a home game versus a Richard Shermon and Kam Chancellor-less Seattle secondary. It wouldn't surprise me to connect on another hailmary.

                    Kenny Stills (37% Owned) - Dolphins

                    • $3-5
                    • I would NOT use #1 claim.
                    • This is basically contingent on Moore being under center for Miami because these two have some crazy psychedelic connection when they're out on the field.
                    • Stills only caught a single pass in the first half on Sunday while Cutler was in, but after suffering his brain bruise (probably helps Cutler tbh), Still exploded and finished the game with 180 receiving yards and a tuddy, reeling in 7-of-8 targets. According to Rotoworld, 4 of Stills last 5 TDs, dating back to last szn, have been delivered by way of Moore's arm.
                    • As I mentioned, the Dolphins travel to the Patriots in Week 12 against a team that, while they've been much better, are still beatable through the air. Expecting a lot of garbage time, it's possible Moore and Stills hook up through the air late in the game like he did in Week 11 for a 61-yard score.

                    Tight Ends

                        Tyler Kroft (45% Owned) - Bengals

                        • $3-5
                        • I would NOT use my #1 claim.
                        • A 2-12-1 line gets it done for fantasy owners that chose to stream the Bengals tight end once again. He has 4 touchdowns in 7 games since taking over as the starting TE following Eifert's move to the IR. He's been fantasy's TE8 since taking over in Week 4.
                        • Kroft's upside is definitely capped due to his athleticism, but he's seeing a huge chunk of the endzone targets for Cincy and he's been pretty good at converting. 
                        • The 6-6, 260lb former Rutgers Scarlet Knight couldn't have asked for a better matchup in Week 12 when the Dalton and the Bengals get a home game against divisional foe Cleveland Browns.
                        • The Browns have given up the 3rd most fantasy points to the TE position in 2017, surrendering a TD to opposing tight ends in three straight games (Rudolph, Ebron, M. Lewis). Kroft will try to make it four on Sunday.

                        Charles Clay (33% Owned) - Bills

                        • $1-4
                        • I would NOT use my #1 claim.
                        • What can I say, it's slim pickings on the WW for TEs mang. Clay is looking like a yung Demaryius Thomas with all the goddamn drops he commits, but with Kelvin Benjamin's knee injury looking to be semi-serious and Jordan Matthews also banged up, Tyrod Taylor (hopefully) doesn't have many other options.
                        • Here are Clay's numbers this year without Matthews:
                        • The Bills were optimistic about JM playing on Sunday, so it's very possible he returns, but regardless, he's caught 3 or fewer passes in every game but one this season and won't be heavily involved in the passing game.
                        • It'll be a semi-tough matchup in Week 12 as the Bills travel to Arrowhead to take on teh sliding Chiefs, but after that it's smooth sailing, wrapping up the season with four plus matchups, the first three being home: NE, IND, MIA, @NE. All three teams are in the top half of the NFL in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing TEs.
                        • Clay should be considered a low-end TE1 with upside for the remainder of the szn.

                          Defenses

                            Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns (40% Owned)

                            • $0-3
                            • I would NOT use #1 claim.
                            • The Bengals d took care of business in Week 11 scoring 10 fantasy points on the road at Denver. Should've been 16 had dumbass Dre Kirkpatrick not bobbled a clear pick-6 on the 1-yard line, whatever.
                            • Cincy should have a much easier time of hitting double digit fantasy points against the Browns in Week 12 at home as heavy favorites.
                            • Over their last five games, the Browns are allowing, on average, 3.6 sacks and 3.2 turnovers per game. They've allowed two defensive scores in that span and are scoring just over 13 points per game. 
                            • Cincy on the other hand, has 7 sacks over their last two outings and have forced multiple turnovers in each game.
                            • With the QB situation all sorts of fucked up in Cleveland, look for the Cincy line and top-notch pass defense to feast on the winless Browns.

                            Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Bucs (17% Owned)

                            • $0-3
                            • I would NOT use #1 claim.
                            • The Falcons are finally hitting the groove. Only took 9 weeks to do so.
                            • They're rolling both offensively and defensively at the moment and have a juicy matchup at home against the Bucs who will trot our their backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick in a must-win for the defending NFC champion Falcons.
                            • Atlanta had that monster 8-sack game against Dallas in Week 11 and followed it up with 3 more on the ever-elusive Russell Dubson along with an INT, FF and a defensive tuddy.
                            • Prior to their last two games versus the trash offenses of MIA and NYJ, the Bucs offense had let up 34 combined fantasy points to the CAR and BUF fantasy DTSs.
                            • As 10 point favorites at home, I expect the Falcons front seven to keep rolling against their division foe in Week 12.

                             

                            I CALL THIS SECTION - Other Players to Consider but I'm too lazy to do a write up on:

                            1. Dede Westbrook (31% Owned) - Played in his first game of the year and finished second on the team in targets (6). Allen Hurns already missing practice this week, not a good sign for Week 12. JAX gets a matchup with ARZ and then Indy - Pat Pete should drape on Lee leaving Dede to run free.

                            2. J.D. McKissic (9% Owned) - Alright I've learned my lesson, I'll avoid the Seattle bykefield fam.

                            But, with Rawls a healthy scratch, McKissic dominated snaps (67%) and touches (12) in their Week 11 game against Atlanta and saw a healthy 6 targets. He gets a nice Week 12 matchup with SF who are giving up the single most FPs to the RB position this year.

                            3. Josh Gordon (34% Owned) - I guess.. He'll return in Week 13 if everything goes according to plan, which it usually doesn't in Gordon's case. Browns coach Hue Jackson said getting Josh Gordon back is "like Christmas." Honestly STFU y'all are 0-10 and getting him back will literally do nothing for your season. If you have room and don't need the roster spot for a last minute playoff push, I'm okay with rostering Gordon but I'm on the wayyy pessimistic side when it comes to Flash's return having any sort of real impact on the 2017 fantasy season.



                                Nick Ercolano
                                Nick Ercolano

                                Author



                                1 Response

                                Austen
                                Austen

                                November 21, 2017

                                Thank you for putting out these daily waiver wire pickups because I picked up Lattavious Murray last week, since he was your #1 pickup of the week and he put up 22 big ones in my PPR money league. It sucks that I had such a poor start in the beginning of the year, which will probably cause me to miss the playoffs, but I’m going to try and spoil some playoff hopes of my good friends that are in my league. P.S. Demarco Murray has literally scarred me for life haha.

                                Leave a comment


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