Fantasy Football Week 11 - YouTube Notes

by Nick Ercolano November 16, 2017

Fantasy Football Week 11 - YouTube Notes

I’ll tell you what the shade was REALLL. Go give this video a thumbs up if you missed my weekly video so I know I should keep them coming. People getting PISSED but we byke don’t you worry your pretty little selves about this.

Injuries

Devonta Freeman (Concussion)

  • 2nd of season - not expected to miss multiple weeks but probably week 11 @ Seattle 
  • Tevin in line for monster workload
  • Racked up 86 yards and a tuddy last week when Freeman went out.
  • There's only been one instance where Coleman played and Freeman didn't, Coleman received 18 carries. Should expect a very similar workload.
  • Right now Freeman is RB14, Coleman is RB17. If you combine Freeman and Coleman's production for the year - they're pacing to 2,230 total yards, 16 touchdowns and 64 catches.
  • Coleman is going to get a hella tick in touches - you play him no matter what this week even against SEA tough run d.
  • Terron Ward will be Coleman's back up - he even got 9 carries last week versus Dallas, a lot to do with game script and them being up big, but he could be a desperation flex play if you really need a RB.

Rob Kelley (High ankle sprain, Sprained MCL)

  • Placed on IR - he'll miss the ROS, the backfield here will be led by Chris Thompson, followed by Samaje Perine.
  • For those that complain about Thompson's playing time, it's not real. He's led the backfield in snaps in all weeks except 1 and 3, when they didn't exactly know what they had in their backfield yet. 
  • Again, you have to be realistic here, it's basically been the same regardless of which fat running back is playing with Thompson, he's not going to become the all-out feature back here ever. He's just 5-8, 190 pounds. Imagine if he got hurt? Real football point of view, this team would be fucked, they'd have no versatility in that backfield.
  • But there should definitely be an increase in workload by default for both backs.
  • So far this year, Perine has missed 3 games, Kelley has missed 2, never at the same time. In the games Perine was absent:
  • 4.6 carries and 6.3 targets,
  • But the two games Kelley was absen, CT avged:
  • 12 rush attempts and 6 targets, 17 overall touches. More importantly, about 10 more half-ppr fantasy points without Kelley. I think that speaks more to the how Gruden views Kelley over Perine. You let CT run more while Kelley is out, but not while Perine is out. 
  • As far as Perine goes, we have 4 games total that Kelley has missed or left early with an injury, in those 4 games Perine is averaging 16 touches per. I think these are the kind of numbers to expect, 10-15 touches for Thompson and around 14+ for Perine. Rob Kelley is t-11th in the NFL with 6 rushes inside the 5-yard line, despite missing two games. Kirk Cousins has 4.
  • This is one of the better overall offenses in the NFL, they have plenty of scoring opps and Perine will get his shot as the in between runner he's proven as of late that he can catch the ball and run with it too, I think Perine is a sneaky play to have good value going forward with Kelley out. CT will be an every week RB2 with upside and Perine is a good flex play imo.

Ty Softgomery/Aaron Jones (Ribs/MCL)

  • Jones out from 3-6 weeks, will miss the rest of fantasy regular season. I'm probably not holding him, unless I really have a ton of room. I'm always pessimistic when it comes to longer-ish type injuries, who knows when he'll actually be back, he'll probably be eased in, it'll likely be a committee whenever he does come back.
  • Ty Mont did something to his ribs, a similar injury cost him a game already this year. Packers say he has a chance to play in Week 11 - they get a home game versus Baltimore. You're going to have to wait on reports here. Ty Mont hasn't had more than 10 carries in a game since Week 3, so I don't really think they view him as their workhorse really.
  • When both RBs left last week's game, Jamaal Williams operated as the featured back, got 20 carries for 67 yards (3.35 ypc) do the math = not good. Also caught a ball for 7 yards. If both guys are inactive, he should be in line for another big workload.
  • The Ravens have been roller coaster-ish, they've either kept starting RBs under 60 yards this year, or they have 3 instances where the RB went over 110 yards - Le'Veon (35 carries), Jordan Howard (36) and Latavius Murray.
  • Looks like teams are shying away from passing against Baltimore, makes sense since they're one of the top pass defenses in the NFL in just about every category, ypa, yards/game, they lead the NFL in interceptions with 13, top in passes allowed of 20+ and 40+ yards, you name it. 
  • I'd expect GB to approach it the same way.
  • If TyMont sits, I'd say Jamaal Williams is a decent RB2 flex play, if TyMont plays, I'd temper expectations on both guys, I'm not hurrying to put either in my lineup.

C.J. Prosise/Eddie Lacy (Ankle/Groin)

  • Prosise is gone with ligament damage to his ankle, Lacy missed Week 10 with a groin injury, but had 10 days to get better, he's questionable for Week 11.
  • If Lacy sits, I love McKissic this week in Atlanta. It'll open up more rushes for him to split with Rawls, and with Prosise out he's the unquestioned 3rd down back. 
  • First off, wanna say RIP to the GOAT Chris Carson, still leading this backfield in total yards. But McKissic leads the backfield in targets (18), receptions (13), rcv yards (126) and tied for rcv TDs (1). He's avging 4.4 ypcs, 10 ypr (13th among 52 RBs with more than 10 receptions).
  • The SEA backfield is only averaging about 5.5 targets/game, but almost all of them will be McKissic's now. Last week he was out-snapped by Rawls just 29-20 despite leading most of the game. Atlanta is allowing the most receptions to running backs on the year 6.6/game, 4th most targets and receiving TDs to RBs.
  • So if Lacy is out, I like McKissic as a sneaky flex/RB play, even if he isn't honestly. I'm probably not firing up Rawls no matter what.

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As you should know by now, the notable WR/CB matchup sheet comes out tomorrow around noonish - if you haven't yet signed up for my blah blah

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Guys I Love This Week

Alex Smith (@NYG) - 48% started

  • People are really down on Alex Smith - he's been so good for you all year and now people don't like him?
  • Well, you have no choice but to like him this week - he's playing the NYG. They're allowing the single most FPs to the QB position this year - this team is in full disarray, I'm talking drinkin henny like im kenny lofton at halftime nonsense.
  • They just let up 26 fantasy points to CJ Beathard.
  • Smith is QB4 in fantasy and has an 18:1 TD:INT ratio - He's on pace to smash career highs by 843 passing yards and pass TDs by 9. I'm sorry he's only thrown for 465 yards and 3 TDs over his last 2 games.. one of which was against DEN, but ya'll gotta chill and get him in your lineup.

Matt Ryan (@SEA) - 70% Started

  • He had just one game with 2 passing touchdowns from Weeks 1-7, now. Since then, he's gone three straight with multiple passing touchdowns.
  • He'll travel to Seattle to take on the Seahawks who will be without Richard Sherman now. Julio should eat against this pass d. Pete Carroll says he expects Earl Thomas to return, who has been out since Week 8 - but he's also possibly the least reliable HC when it comes to injuries. It's a big upgrade to this pass offense if Thomas is out. 
  • Drew Stanton threw up 273 passing yards and a touchdown last week versus Seattle and gets Matt Ryan who's top-8 in passing yards and is now starting to find the endzone. Ryan played in Seattle last year, week 5 and threw up 335 yards and 3 scores. Julio went 7-139-1 that game. 
  • A few weeks ago they let up 400 yards and 4 tds to Watson - also RIP.
  • I'm just saying don't be automatically scared off by the @SEA sign next to Matt Ryan.

I already talked about J.D. McKissic, he's my guy this week, if I played DFS I would definitely get him in there. (started in 1% of leagues).

Tevin Coleman is also another must start, only started in 59% of leagues.

WRs I'll talk about in my WR/CB matchup column dropping later today.

Jason Witten (PHI)

  • Went 7/7 for 59 yards in first game without Zeke.
  • PHI has been beat by TEs this year, allowing the 8th most FPs to the position.
  • With Zeke out and Dez banged up, Dak was forced to check down and scramble to save his life.
  • Ov/Un of 48, shootout potential. 

Jared Cook (OAK)

  • Averaging 6 catches/game over last 3 games, has gone over 100 in 2-of-3, big piece of this offense. 
  • With Carr another week healthier coming off their bye, I like Cook to contribute in a big way again. The Patriots have been much better on defense over the last month or so, especially against TEs, but Uncle Bill loves to take away the opposing offenses best weapons, and it's obviously not the run game, it'll be their outside weapons Crabtree and Cooper, look for Cook to exploit the middle of the field. 
  • Highest ov/un 52.5 - potential shootout. 

Guys I Hate This Week

Jared Goff (@MIN) - 60% Started

  • Goff is riding a tsunami type wave right now, he's thrown for 666 yards and 7 touchdowns over the last two. Call me skeptical, but it was against the NYG and the HOU Texans, very likely the two worst pass defenses in the league right now.
  • On the other side of things, they're now traveling to Minn - to take on one of the best pass defenses in the league, allowing just 6.5 ypa. Over their last 3 home games, MIN is allowing just 184 passing yards/game with and just 2 passing touchdowns.
  • A big area of Goff's success is from huge gains, whether it be dumpoffs and runs or long passes. The Vikings rank 2nd (tied) for fewest pass plays of 20+ yards and 40+ yards, they're very good at limiting the long pass plays.
  • Look at his splits vs. Top 15 and Top 9 passing defenses.
  • Despite leading the league in scoring, avg 33 pts/game, Vegas projects them to score just 22 points in this one.

Leonard Fournette (@CLV) - 95% Started

  • This will not be a popular pick and almost no one has the luxury to sit him, but hear me out.
  • Fournette coming off worst game of szn - out-snapped Yeldon just 45-31. Yeldon is the clear 3rd down back right now for Jacksonville.
  • But what makes me more nervous is the Browns rush defense - they are, through 10 weeks of the season the number one rush defense in the NFL - allowing 3.1 yards per carry, but what's even scarier is how they play at home.
  • The Browns have had 5 home games this season - I want you to listen to this. In those 5 games - they've gone against Le'Veon Bell, the combo of Mixon and Gio, the combo of Powell and McGuire, the combo of Murray and Henry and the combo of McKinnon and Latavius Murray. Of Bell and those other 4 combos, they've combined for 260 rushing yards on 107 attempts. That's 2.4 yards per carry and they've allowed 1 rushing score to those 9 running backs.
  • The Browns are sitting at 0-9, the laughing stock of the NFL, they're due for an upset, all they've heard is about how good this Jags team is, blah blah blah, I think they take away the run game, they fight fire with fire, the Jags best offensive weapon against the Browns best defensive asset their run d, and make Bortles beat them.
  • I don't wanna say they come away with the upset butttt I'm liking this +7.5 for the Browns.

Adrian Peterson (@HOU) - 60% Started

  • So as the Cardinals feature back, we have a 4-game sample size. Two games with him rushing for over 130 yards and two games with him rushing for under 30 yards. The good thing about this is that it was fairly easy to predict.
  • He's 58 years old, coming off two weeks totaling 61 touches. 
  • And now they're traveling to Houston. For as bad as they've been against the pass, they're run d has been very solid.
  • They're letting up the 2nd fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs in 2017. 
  • After Week 1, they've only allowed 1 RB to surpass 70 rushing yards - Kareem Hunt 107 yards but needed 29 carries to do it.
  • They lost their starting LT D.J. Humphries last game and are again back to being one of the worst o-lines in the NFL.
  • The good news is obviously that the volume is there, he's seen 20+ carries in 3-of-4 games since being signed and Peterson may be in line for another big workload, but I'm not confident with him in my lineup as anything more than a flex play.

 

Buy Low Candidates

- most of your trade deadlines are probably passed but here are a few guys I would buy low on.

1. Corey Davis - coming off a 10-target game, Davis is quickly becoming the WR1 here, he played as many snaps as Rishard Matthews and was about an inch away from really putting himself on the map. Lucky for you, if you're looking to buy low, he didn't. He now gets a really tough PIT pass d allowing the 3rd fewest FP to WRs, so I'd expect another mediocre game for the #5 overall pick. But right after Pit he gets a gorgeous schedule of IND, HOU, ARZ, and SF - think he has at least 2 really really good games, maybe 3 in that 4 game stretch.

2. Josh Doctson - a little less hyped on Doctson compared to Davis, but I still like what I'm seeing. Doctson's had some tough matchups, but Terrelle Pryor is basically completely out of the picture. Last week, Xavier Rhodes shadowed Doctson, which clearly tells you what the opponents think about Doctson. He had a season-high 7 targets and should've had another TD. It seems that Doctson has basically scored, or "Should have' scored in almost every game this year. The next 6 weeks are filled with either really bad or good matchups - @NO (Lattimore), @LAC (Hayward) and DEN (Talib), but he also gets NYG, DAL and ARZ. You'll know when you can play him at least.

3. Shady

I think with the news of Tyrod getting benched, people might be looking to move Shady and I've been getting a ton of trade ??'s surrounding him. He's had some bad games this year that make you question him, but his ROS schedule is incredible as a fantasy RB.

 

League Recaps

Ok, so we're getting down to the wire

I'll get right to the ETGD - I'm 4-6 sitting in 8th, I threw up a 170 spot two weeks ago, and 135 last week but happened to go against someone who went off, I basically would've beat any other team in the league really woulda had some nice mojo, but I'm hurting man - so far on the year - i've lost deshaun watson, odell beckham, allen robinson, danny woodhead, chris carson, julio has obviously underperformed so i mean, a lot of it is luck not much I could've done but..

Im my college friends league ... i have the most points scored in the league but i'm sitting at 5-5 in 6th place... just bad luck again nothing you can do.. I'm not worried though, look at my team it's stacked, long as I keep winning I'll get into the playoffs. 

 

Sub league - im getting washed tbh, i'm 4-6 should be 5-5 played OBJ the first week by accident, I can still go on a run, i'm 2 games out of 6th place and it's a 14-team league so if i go on a run i can get in for sure. OBJ was my first rounder, and in a 14-team league when you lose guys like that it really hurts because you only get one or two haymaker players liek that. But you know it is what is it, props to eveyrone raking in that league.

Last league is the FJ office league. Sitting in 6th place also 14 teams so I'm in the thick of the playoffs, just made two huge moves on the waiver, been saving my FAAB budget and I was able to grab Alex Smith and Samaje Perine off the waivers - might not sound too exciting but RBs are fucking scarce in this league man so that was huge for me. The next best option on the WW was like Corey Clement so that was huge, someone also just dropped McKissic like two days ago so I need to try and get him when the next WW processes which I think is in two days.

Again we're coming down the final stretch, so you can still run off 3-4 wins in a row and squeak into the playoffs, all you need is a ticket to the big dance and anything can happen baby.

#LoTCs

ANNNND we're bringing it way byke from the dead, my LoTCs for y'all gambling folks. Last time I did this was back in Week 8.

As far as I'm concerned, any win percentage over 51% is a DUB.

Record on the Season (11-12)

Week 1

  1. NYJ +10 @ BUF = W
  2. ATL vs. CHI under 48.5 = W
  3. TEN -2.5 vs. OAK = L

Week 2

  1. NYJ @ OAK over 43.5 = W
  2. LAC -4 vs. MIA = L
  3. MIN @ PIT over 45.5 = N/A (Before Bradford was ruled out)

Week 3

  1. LAR @ SF over 39.5 = W
  2. PHI -6 vs. NYG = L
  3. DAL @ ARZ over 46.5 = L

Week 4 (Collab w/ Adam Pfeifer no picks)

Week 5

  1. BUF @ CIN over 38.5 = L
  2. DET -3 vs. CAR = L
  3. GB +2 @ DAL = W

Week 6

  1. DET @ NO over 49.5 = W
  2. SF @ WAS over 46.5 = W
  3. SF +10 @ WAS = W
  4. LAR @ JAX under 42.5 = L (only scored 44 despite scoring 14 in the first 15 seconds)
  5. NE @ NYJ over 47.5 = L
  6. CLV +10 @ HOU = L

Week 7

  1. TEN @ CLV over 46.5 = L
  2. BAL +5.5 @ MIN = L
  3. NYJ @ MIA over 38.5 = W

Week 8

  1. SEA -5.5 vs. HOU = L
  2. DAL @ WAS over 50.5 = W
  3. PHI -12.5 vs. SF = W

Week 11

  1. CLV +7.5 vs. JAX
  2. LAC -4 vs. BUF (cross country, QB change mid-week)
  3. NE @ OAK over 52.5
  4. DAL +3.5 vs. PHI


Nick Ercolano
Nick Ercolano

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