Fantasy Football Week 11 - Top Waiver Wire Adds

by Nick Ercolano November 14, 2017

Fantasy Football Week 11 - Top Waiver Wire Adds

Every Tuesday afternoon I'll send this sheet out to the interwebs, highlighting this week's top waiver wire pick-ups.
Criteria to Make this List:
  • All players must be owned in less than 50% of Yahoo Leagues.
  • FAAB is based on $100 budget. Y'all can do the simple math if your league isn't $100... The first bullet for each player is how much I would recommend spending on your league.
  • Is this FA Worthy of your top waiver wire claim?​ The second bullet is whether or not I would recommend spending your #1 WW claim on this player.

Sorry for any typos, I'v g0t no tyme to proophread.

Quarterbacks

    Blake Bortles (31% Owned) - Jaguars

    • $3-5
    • I would NOT use #1 claim.
    • Bortles, like most streaming QB options, isn't going to win you fantasy games, but at this point it's looking like he's not going to lose you them either. Coming off a season-high 51 attempts on Sunday vs. LAC, Bortles has scored at least 16.3 fantasy point in three straight contests and will look to do so in Week 11 at Cleveland.
    • Bortles turned those 51 Week 10 attempts into 273 passing yards and a score. He hasn't been held below 240 passing yards since Week 5.
    • Over the last two weeks, the Browns have given up a total of 5 passing touchdowns and 537 passing yards to Matthew Stafford and Case Keenum. They've now allowed multiple passing scores in 5 of their last 6 games. Only two teams (NYG/NYJ) have given up more throwing scores than the 19 TDs Cleveland has given up in 2017. They're also giving up the 2nd highest QB rating (104.4) to opposing QBs on the season. Cleveland is a mess right now.
    • I don't love Bortles, but the combination of Marqise Lee, Hurns, possibly the return of preseason standout Dede Westbrook and emerging receiving weapon T.J. Yeldon give BB an above average group of weapons at his disposal.

    Jay Cutler (18% Owned) - Dolphins

    • $1
    • I would NOT use #1 claim.
    • Cutler might be the worst starting QB in the NFL. 
    • Never mind. In many other years this would probably be the case, but 2017 is a whole different animal when it comes to bad QB play.
    • Regardless of my terrible analysis on Cutty, he's been usable in fantasy over the last two weeks, throwing for 311 and 213 yards, totaling 5 passing scores. In Week 11, he gets a plus matchup at home versus the TB Bucs who are bottom-5 in just about every pass defense statistical category.
    • He's got a healthy group of WRs in Parker, Landry and Stills, with Thomas at TE and two capable pass-catching backs at his disposal.
    • It's far from ideal, but with so many injured starting QBs, Cam on a bye as well as other top streaming options like McCown and Brissett, Cutler could finish inside the top-15 at the position.

          Running Backs

            Latavius Murray (43% Owned) - Vikings

            • $25
            • I WOULD use #1 claim. (#1 overall pickup this week)
            • He continues to find himself here, and will continue to.
            • In fantasy football, you follow the volume. Usually, if not most of the time, volume is more impactful to fantasy production than talent, which is exactly what we're finding in the Minnesota backfield between Murray and Jerick McKinnon.
            • Since Dalvin Cook left their week 4 game with the szn-ender, Murray is averaging 17 touches a game and he's now scored in 2 of Minnesota's last 3 games following his 17-68-1 line in their Week 10 win at Washington. Also worth noting that Murray played a season-high 49.2% of the teams snaps on Sunday.
            • We know what we're getting from Murray - volume plus a coin flip at a rushing score. He's out-rushed McKinnon inside-the-5 7-4 on the season.

            Elijah McGuire (8% Owned) - Jets

            • $3-6
            • I would NOT use #1 claim.
            • With Forte sidelined for the foreseeable future, the Jets backfield is up for grabs somehow. I'm shocked Powell hasn't taken the reigns, but it is what it is at this point.
            • On Sunday, McGuire out-snapped (36-33), out-targeted (7-2) and out-gained Bilal Powell (58-36) in their Week 10 loss to Tampa Bay. 
            • Forte is expected to miss a couple of weeks, week 10 included, and the Jets have their bye on Week 11 which is why I'm not breaking the bank on the rookie. They get a tough matchup versus Carolina after their bye who have given up the 3rd fewest fantasy points to the RB position on the year.
            • I still think Powell is the lead back here, he exploded for over 160 total yards the last time Forte was out prior to this shit show, but both guys are a very safe bet for double-digit touches given Forte's absence.

            Jamaal Williams (5% Owned) - Packers

            • $7-10
            • I would NOT use #1 claim.
            • He's not good. At all. But again, volume wins in fantasy. The Packers lost their best running back, Aaron Jones, on Sunday to an MCL injury which will sidelie him for the next 3-6 weeks. Ty Softgomery had to leave Week 10 too, with another rib injury, similar to the one that cost him Week 5.
            • With both running backs leaving their Week 10 win at Chicago, Williams operated as the feature back behind Hundley, seeing 20 carries and a single reception, totaling 74 yards (3.5 ypt). 
            • Depending on the severity of TySoft's rib injury, JW could see another featured load in Week 11 and beyond. Reports have surface that there's a possibility Montgomery could play in Week 11. Sounds eerily familiar to the last time he dealt with his rib injury earlier this year. Reports said it was a long-term issue, than that he could play right away, and he ended up sitting out the next week and was extremely limited in the games following. Keep a close eye on report.s
            • If this was still Aaron Rodgers' team, I'd say go all in on the wire. But it's not. Since Hundley took over as QB in Week 6, the Packers are averaging just 16.75 points per game, which would be 29th in the NFL for the season. Combine that with the Williams being a literal slug, it's not such an appetizing add.
            • Green Bay gets a home game versus Baltimore in Week 11 who have been beaten by running backs this year and are 28th in the NFL allowing 126 rushing yards per game to opponents.
            • If Williams is indeed the lead back for Week 11, you can feel mildly confident with him in your RB2/flex spot. 

            Samaje Perine (7% Owned) - Redskins

            • $8-12
            • I would NOT use #1 claim.
            • With Rob me of a lineup spot Kelley leaving Washington's game on Sunday again with an injury, drink, Perine will be locked in as the early down back going forward. Kelley's injury is believed to be both a high-ankle and MCL sprain. Kelley will be out for "multiple weeks" according to the Redskins.
            • Perine hasn't been good on his own, but HC Jay Gruden is adamant about not letting their best RB Chris Thompson touch the ball enough to ensure them a few victories. CT Crunch is easily the back to own here, as he has been all szn, but Perine has some fantasy value going forward.
            • In the 4 games that Kelley has either missed entirely or left early with an injury, Perine has averaged 16 touches/game. That's probably about what you can expect from him without Fat Rob.
            • The more I see Perine play, the more I actually like him. He's shown glimpses of 3-down ability, looking pretty good as a pass-catcher. On Sunday, he turned 10 touches into 60 yards and received the goal-line work. Washington is a top-12 scoring offense and in rushing touchdowns, so there should be some more TD opportunities coming for Perine.
            • Perine will face two mediocre rush defenses over the next three weeks @NO, home against the Giants and @DAL. I'd be perfectly fine plugging Perine in my flex for any of these matchups. 

            Rex Burkhead (13% Owned) - Patriots

            • $8-12
            • I would NOT use #1 claim. Would if desperate at RB.
            • Mike Gillislee, the man who scored 18 rushing touchdowns in August 2017 is officially out of the picture after being a healthy scratch for the Patriots SNF showdown with the rival Broncos.
            • On Sunday night, Burkhead led the backfield in snaps, 36-21 over the next leading guy Dion Lewis. Lewis still out-touched him 14-13, but Burkhead was able to turn his 13 touches into 63 yards and a score. Over their last two games, Burkhead has totaled 146 yards and a score, catching 10 passes in the process.
            • With Gillislee out of the picture, Burk and Lewis are going to split all of the early down work and it looks like Rex and James White are splitting work as well. Over the last two games, RB receiving line: 10 targets, 10 receptions, 95 yards, 1 touchdown. James White receiving line: 9 targets, 8 receptions, 96 yards, 1 touchdown. 
            • Throwing any Patriots RB into your lineup is still risky business, but all three running backs have earned their way into flex consideration.
            • New England gets four great matchups in as many games @OAK, MIA, @BUF and @MIA. Oakland has given up the 4th most points to fantasy RBs on the year, Miami the 10th, and Buffalo the 2nd most. Burk is flex worthy in all of these.

            Danny Woodhead (35% Owned) - Ravens

            • $5-8.
            • I would NOT use #1 claim.
            • He's finally eligible to return in Week 11. Suck Allen sucks. That's about it.
            • DW is practicing this week but is yet to confirm he's actually returning, which kind of concerns me tbh.
            • The Ravens backfield is averaging nearly 8 targets a game, most of which should be Woodhead's once he's active. Obviously a much better PPR play. Keep a close eye on reports here.

            Rod Smith (44% Owned) - Cowboys

            • $0-2
            • I would NOT use #1 claim.
            • So we have a pretty good idea about how this backfield will shape up. It's Alf as the 1, Smith as the 2 and McFadden as the 4. A spot at 3 is saved for all of Zeke's law reports that come out on a weekly basis.
            • In their Week 10 LLLLLLLLLLL to the AtLLLLLLLLLanta FaLLLLLLLLLcons, the snap count went like this: R. Smith - 38, Alf - 22, DMC - 1. Much of that had to do with game script, getting waxed and trailing all day but now we know for sure Smith is the pass-catching back here.
            • He only tallied 15 yards on his 6 targets, but the volume was good to see. Only some other guy named Keith Smith has a target out of the backfield on Sunday.
            • Smith will be usable in PPR formats as a flex play going forward as they'll likely continue to lean on Dak while Zeke serves his 6-game suspension.
            • It's also worth noting that their starting 4x Pro Bowl LT Tyron Smith was sidelined with an injury. 

                Austin Ekeler (3% Owned) - Chargers

                • $1-3
                • I would NOT use #1 claim.
                • Sure, he had his big game in Week 10, but I still see him as nothing more than Melvin Gordon's handcuff on a week-to-week basis.
                • Oh, you want to argue that? Ok, put Ekeler into your lineup then this week.
                • That's what I thought.
                • Ekeler had 15 touches in their Week 15 loss to Jacksonville and was still out-snapped by Gordon 47-23. Coming into Sunday's game, Ekeler had just 29 touches on the season.
                • If you're a Gordon owner, he's definitely worth rostering.

                    Wide Receivers

                        Corey Davis (48% Owned) - Titans

                        • $10-15
                        • I WOULD use #1 claim.
                        • I told about 78% of people that came to me with Corey Davis questions in Week 10 to start him. I had a great feeling about the rookie. And he was an inch away from proving me right before the ball slipped out just centimeters short of the goal-line, turning what would have been a touchdown into a touchback.
                        • The good news, however, is that the #6 overall pick led the Titans in targets (10) in just his second game back and is looking like the WR1 on a 6-3 division leading team. He played in a szn-high 87% of the teams snaps.
                        • After a tough game @PIT in Week 11, Davis should explode down the stretch as they get Indy, Houston, Arizona, San Fran over their next 4. Fire him up as your WR2 in all of them. ALL of them.

                          Martavis Bryant (43% Owned) - Steelers

                          • $3-6
                          • I would NOT use #1 claim.
                          • Welp, the jury is out. JuJu is officially the WR1, I mean WR2 in Pittsburgh. But that doesn't mean Martavis will have 0 value.
                          • In his first game back from... whatever you want to call it, Bryant caught 3-of-5 targets for 42 yards, adding a two-point conversion. He played on 37 of the team's 66 snaps and we should see that number increase as he eases back into the offense and Big Ben's good graces.
                          • Martavis still has the same ability he did coming into the szn, the 15 fantasy point play at any time kind of ability. It'll be harder to come by now, but if you're desperate and looking for upside, look no further.
                          • The Steelers get two nice home games against Tennessee and Green Bay where Bryant should look to right the ship.

                          Corey Coleman (22% Owned) - Browns

                          • $3-5
                          • I would NOT use #1 claim.
                          • Coleman will return in Week 11 from the I.R.
                          • The Browns offense is trash, as been their passing and receiving game, which means Coleman will return as their unquestioned top weapon on the outside. Ricard Louis is Cleveland's leading WR on the szn, averaging 36.5 yards per game.
                          • He gets a few tough games in his return: JAX, @CIN, @LAC but sometimes talent wins out. It's worth the stash to see if this is one of those cases.

                          Marquise Goodwin (15% Owned) - 49ers

                          • $4-6
                          • I would NOT use #1 claim.
                          • By no I'm sure we've all heard the heartbreaking story about Marquise Goodwin so let's just talk fantasy.
                          • With Pierre Garcon out, Goodwin looks to have taken over the WR1 role by default. A week after leading all SF WRs with 8 targets and 68 receiving yards, Goodwin struck the Giants with an 83-yard touchdown catch down the middle of the field, albeit it was his only catch of the day. It does show what he's capable of though. 
                          • Goodwin has ridiculous, 4.27, speed and should continue to get a couple of deep targets each game. We're not sure who the QB for the 9ers is going to be coming off their Week 11 bye, but between Beathard and Garoppolo I don't think it will make much difference to Goodwin's outlook.
                          • After the bye, SF will get a home game versus a Richard Shermon-less (ruptured achilles) Seattle. He could connect on another hailmary.

                          Tight Ends

                              Charles Clay (43% Owned) - Bills

                              • $3-5
                              • I would NOT use my #1 claim.
                              • Clay was far from good in his first game back with the Bills after a knee injury sidelined him for their previous 3 games, but let's not blame Clay here. Tyrod completed just 9 passes and threw for an absurd 56 yards. No offense to the Bills (literally), but this much-improved Saints defense made Buffalo look like a high school team.
                              • Clay's upside is till there, though. From Weeks 1-4, he played in at least 80% of the teams snaps in every game, on Sunday he was only in for 60%. That number will rise as he gets healthier. In that time, Clay led the team in targets (24), receiving yards (227) and touchdowns (2).
                              • We can expect more from this offense as whole going forward. 
                              • I'm probably not ready to start Clay in Week 11 against a Chargers defense whose only receiving TD by a TE on the year was to Gronk, but he'll get much friendlier games down the stretch versus KC, NE, MIA and IND. He should finish the year as a top-10 fantasy TE from this point on.

                              Ben Watson (12% Owned) - Ravens

                              • $2-4
                              • I would NOT use my #1 claim.
                              • No one wants to play Ben Watson and their TE in fantasy, but the floor is real. He's had at least 5 catches or a touchdown in 4 straight games and is coming off of a season-high 10 targets in their Week 9 loss to Tennessee.
                              • Coming off of their bye, the Ravens will play the Packers at Lambeau. Green Bay, who hasn't played many, if any, top TEs this year, have allowed the single fewest fantasy points to the position. I still like Watson to reel in 4-5 passes and have a safe PPR floor in Week 11 though.
                              • After Green Bay, Watson and the Ravens get a juicy home matchup versus the Texans who have been ripped up by TEs in 2017. Not that Watson is a TE that can rip teams up but...

                                Defenses

                                Arizona Cardinals @ Houston Texans (46% Owned)

                                • $0-1
                                • I would NOT use #1 claim.
                                • This shouldn't be too complicated. The Texans offense is bad without Deshaun Watson.
                                • Over their last five games, Houston has allowed opposing fantasy defenses to average  11 fantasy points per game, which includes the Colts and Browns. Neither scored less than 8 points.
                                • The Cardinals have a whopping 10 sacks over their last two games while the Texans have allowed 10 sacks over their last 3 and 5 interceptions in that span. Their offense hasn't scored more than 8 points in either of their last two games and probably should've given up 2 more defensive TDs to the Rams last week.
                                • With Patrick Peterson (attempting) to lock down Houston's only weapon in DeAndre Hopkins, look for Arizona to hit that 11 fantasy point mark easily in Week 11.

                                Cincinnati Bengals @ Denver Broncos (25% Owned)

                                • $0-1
                                • I would NOT use #1 claim.
                                • Another simple case of stream defenses against bad offenses. New England was my favorite streamer in Week 10 and they came away with 13 fantasy points at Denver, thanks to a few big special teams plays.
                                • Cincinnati will try to replicate the Patriots success in Denver, the single friendliest offense to fantasy defenses in 2017.
                                • The Bengals are coming off a strong 4-sack performance against one of the better offensive lines in the league, the Titans. 
                                • Prior to their game against the Patriots (who we all know's pass rush is non-existent), the Broncos had let up at least 3 sacks in 6 straight games. Brock Osweiler will be the starting QB for Denver again in Week 11, leading an offense that has turned the ball over multiple times in five straight games and have let up a defensive or special teams TD in 4 of their last 5.
                                • It's simply a perfect storm here, let Cincy guide you to a victory in Week 11.


                                  Nick Ercolano
                                  Nick Ercolano

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