Fantasy Football Week 10 - YouTube Notes

by Nick Ercolano November 09, 2017

Fantasy Football Week 10 - YouTube Notes

Injuries

Jamies Winston/Mike Evans - TB

  • JW out at least next two weeks, they play NYJ, @MIA, @ATL over N3 - good pass matchups.
  • Fitzmagic is backup - dude just appears out of thin air when there's an injury. Came in last week and threw for about 70 yards and a tuddy AND also added 30 rushing yards. 
  • I'm not excited about streaming Fitz this week w/o Evans. but if he misses more time, Fitz could definitely be usable in fantasy - look at week 6 when he filled in - threw for 300 total yards and 3 touchdowns. Over the last 3 seasons Fitz has rushed for over 20 yards in about 40% of his games so he has a rushing upside. 
  • Also worth noting, target splits with Fitz (w/o Evans, expect Brate ^^^)
  • With Evans out, Chris Godwin will fill in likely on the outside. He hasn't done much this season, but he was a really nice prospect coming out of Penn State, 3rd round pick. Runs good routes (Matt Harmon "reception perception" favorite, very good at contested catches going up and getting the ball, could very well be used like Mike Evans here - solid late add at WR if you're desperate.

Julio Jones - ATL

  • Julio Jones has a lower leg injury, drink.
  • Should be out of practice or limited all week but ready to go against Dallas.
  • Coming off a szn high 118 yards, JJ should be huge, Dallas allowing the 7th most FP to WRs on the year.
  • If he plays, easy WR1, but truly questionable at this point.

Dez Bryant - DAL

  • Dealing with ankle and knee injury, both minor, but day-to-day, they'll probably give him plenty of rest this week.
  • He didn't practice on Wednesday so idk. If I had to guess, he'll play in Week 10 but it's a tough matchup, ATL allowing 9th fewest points to WRs and have only allowed 4 WRs to go over 65 receiving yards this year. At less than 100% dez is more a low-end WR2 with touchdown upside.
  • Also truly questionable.

Chris Hogan - NE

  • Didn't practice again on Wednesday - unlikely to play in Week 10, hopefully they sit him @ DEN, then they get Oakland and Miami next 2 weeks. Boost for Gronk, James White and Cooks if he sits.

Matt Forte - NYJ

  • Didn't practice Wednesday, due to some swelling in his knee. They get TB in Week 10 who's let up the 3rd most FP to the RB position this year - about 230 total yards to Kamara and Ingram last week. I'm starting Forte if he's playing - otherwise Powell is a strong play. Forte dominated snaps in Week 9 32-15 and McGuire had more snaps (20) than Powell too, but over the last weeks Powell has been getting plenty of work - 23 carries to Forte's 18, Forte is the pass catcher though which is where the discrepancy is. Powell should be locked in for 15-20 touches if Forte is out, McGuire is more of dart throw RB3/flex - In the one game Forte missed, that Powell didn't leave with an injury too, Powell went 21 for 163 and a touchdown against Jax and had 4 catches.

Eddie Lacy/C.J. Prosise - SEA

  • Groin injury will keep Lacy sidelined for Seattle's Week 10 TNF matchup in Arizona.
  • Rawls came in, and as usual, looked better than fat boy. He was named the starter already for tonight. Probably still not a guy you want to start against a tough ARZ run defense unless you're really desperate.
  • I'm okay starting Rawls if you're really desperate - I'm more of a believer in his talent than most people. And by most people I mean everyone.
  • And for the 6th straight week Pete Carroll is telling us Prosise will play this week. J.D. McKissic has actually done a pretty good job filling in. Since Week 4, he leads the SEA backfield in total yards, which isn't really much to brag about but I'd stay away from everyone for now.

Jeremy Hill - CIN

  • Messed up his ankle in pregame warmups and had to sit for Week 9, didn't practice yet this week and will probably miss Week 10 - last week Mixon played in 28 of 39 snaps. Yes I said 39 offensive snaps. He got 13 carries, nice to see 33% of their plays were handoffs to Mixon. 
  • Mixon hasn't been able to get much going this year, he's RB27 right now in fantasy, but he's a 3-down threat, they get middle of the pack TEN rush defense in Week 10 - they've been beaten through the air by RBs this year a bunch of times - he's an RB2. 

DeMarco Murray - TEN

  • dealing with a knee injury - still out-snapped Henry 37-19 last week. He's questionable i guess for this week but I feel like they're gonna keep trotting him out there. Cincy is pretty good against the run - allowing 3.8 ypc, have only let up 3 rushing TDs on the year t-1st in the NFL. Le'Veon is the only RB to go over 85 yards on them and he needed 35 carries to do so. Also 1st in the NFL, they've only allowed one rush of 20+ yards, not that I expect Murray's broken ass to grab 20 on a run but..

Jordan Reed - WAS

  • limited but participated in team drills, it's a step in the right direction, but I hate starting Reed at less than 100%, he rarely gets full snap workload. If he's out, vernon Davis has been a great fill-in option, but gets a touch matchup with MIN in Week 10 - they haven't let a TE go over 55 yards on them this year. So either one fo them will only be a low TE1 if healthy.
  • Also, getting a lot of questions about Reed and whether or not you can drop him.... I'm fine with it tbh. The lack of headaches and wasted roster space is well worth the 4 extra fantasy points you might miss out on - not good fantasy analysis, just good human being analysis.

Others

Corey Coleman/Danny Woodhead/Josh Gordon

- Coleman should be back for Week 11 - although it's against JAX so you probably don't want to play him here. The Browns offense is trash, as been their passing and receiving game, which means Coleman will return as their unquestioned top weapon on the outside. Ricard Louis is Cleveland's leading WR on the szn, averaging 36.5 yards per game.

- Woodhead should also return Week 11 - but they've been hesitant to say so which is weird, but I still want to pick him up - the BAL backfield is averaging about 7.5 targets a game, he should take right back over. Since Week 2 only James White and McCaffrey have more RB receptions than Suck Allen.

- Josh Gordon - Basically haven't wasted any of my breathe or time answering questions about him. The earliest he can return, if everything goes perfect is Week 13. If everything goes perfect, that's literally a coin flip with Gordon. He's not gonna be high when he's playing I want no part. No, but on the really real, if you're a team that is basically in the playoffs and have room for him, like the guy you're dropping you don't expect production from or to use by Week 13 then I say okay go for it. Week 13 they're at LAC which is very tough for WRs before a home game with GB then Baltimore. Should be fun to watch either way.

Some guys I love this week:

1. Tyrod Taylor - vs. NO

  • I been tryna tell y'all about TyGod the realest to ever do it honestly. Like let's all take a second to honor him.
  • Was QB10 in Week 7, QB9 in Week 6 and was QB1 in fantasy last week. He has 3 straight games of 6 rushing attempts and 2 scores in his last 3 - Week 5 was the only game this year he's had fewer than 6 rushing attempts.
  • Coming off szn high 285 passing yards. I get it NO has been WAY better than anyone's imagined but you look at the lineup of QBs they've faced - it's Cam Newton in Week 3 while he still sucked ass, Jay Cutler, Brett Hundley, Mitch Trubisky, and last week with fucking Jameis Winston (capital W) and Fitz Patrick. Against competent QBs, such as Bradford, Brady and Stafford they've been picked apart. All 3 of them went over 300 yards and 3 touchdowns. 
  • Taylor should be getting Charles Clay back and Kelvin Benjamin in the lineup. hopefully Zay Jones is in the lineup who had his first good game last week.

2. Jared Goff - vs. HOU

  • I thought last week was an easy all on Goff, NYG might have the worst pass defense in the NFL right now. Coming off career highs 311 yards and 4 touchdowns, he gets Houston at home. Goff is averaging over 260 passing yards a game at home this year.
  • Houston over the last 2 weeks to Russell Wilson and Jacoby Brissett have given up over 800 total yards and 6 tuddys. Like... tf are you doing on defense that you let up 800 yards to 2 QBs.
  • They're 30th in the NFL in yards per attempt and have let up an NFL high 10 passes of 40+ yards. The Rams has 4 of those just last week in their game vs. the Giants, so look for them to exploit that.

3. DeSean Wax Em' - vs. NYJ

  • Gotta like him @ home with Evans out - averaging about 7 targets a game, should see a nice boost without Evans. Fitzpatrick is more than capable of throwing the ball as I mentioned before. 
  • The Jets have let up an NFL-high 19 passing touchdowns... And only the Chiefs and Colts have given up more 20+ yard passes this year.
  • The Jets top cover corner, Mo Claiborne has been a strong point for this defense but missed Week 9 as the Bills lets Tyrod throw for a szn high 285 yards. He hasn't practiced yet this week 
  • Look for Djax to go over benjy franks (100 yahds).

4. Devin Funchess vs. MIA

  • He's their real WR1 now in CAR against a bad MIA secondary.
  • Per Football Outsiders, MIA is 30th in DVOA against opponent's WR1s.
  • Their biggest lapses against oppo WRs has been against long WR1s of other teams, i.e. - Robby Anderson 2x, Michael Thomas, Julio Jones.

5. Devante Parker @ CAR

  • While the Carolina pass d might look stout, Parker has a nice matchup versus James Bradberry.
  • PFF expects shadow coverage for DP from JB, which is actually a good thing.
  • Bradberry is the 8th lowest graded non-slot CB per PFF and is bottom-20 in yards per route covered.
  • In the 4 games that Parker has played full games in (> 5% of teams snaps), he's been quietly excellent with stat-lines of 4-85, 8-76-1, 6-69 and 5-76. His floor is tremendous and as 9 points dawgs in this one, their should be plenty of garbage time FPs to go around. The touchdowns haven't been there, but they're coming.
  • Literally the same thing I said about Funchess holds true for Parker... CAR struggles to cover long WR1s that their opponent provides - Garcon (6-81), M-Thomas (7-87-1), Chris Hogan (5-60-1), Alsh Jeff (4-71), Evans (5-60), Julio (6-118).

5. Orleans Darkwa - @SF

  • Even in the absolute worst game script last week against the Rams - Darwka got 18 touches. He's avg over 17 touches/game over their L3 weeks - the clear lead back.
  • He's now 4th in the NFL among all RBs with more than 52 carries (44). He's 5th in YAC as well. 
  • THey go against SF this week and are actually 2.5 point favorites. They've given up the single most FP to RBs on the year. Allowing NFL-high 136 RY/game, 9 rushing touchdowns, only the Colts have allowed more.
  • Really solid RB2 this week.

 6. Kyle Rudolph - @WAS

  • WAS is allowing the 4th most fantasy points to TEs in 2017.
  • They've allowed 90 receiving yards and/or a TD to the opposing TE in 6-of-8 games this year.
  • Rudolph has been good as of late - averaging 8 targets over their L4 games, never less than 7 - and has at least 5 catches in 4 straight - and scored in 2-of-4.

Some guys I hate this week:

1. Kirk Cousins vs. MIN

  • Over the last 5 games they've allowed just 3 pass tuddys, avging 172 passing yarda per game over their last 5.
  • Kirk has only thrown for 1 TD over his last 2. Maybe w.o Jordan Reed/Jamison Crowder again, shaky WR core overall.
  • They're having a lot of trouble on the o line with injuries - Cousins has been sacked 14 times over L3 games, Vikings have gotten to the QB for 12 sacks over their last 3.
  • Vikings are top 4 in the NFL in yards per attempt, and have given up the single fewest pass plays of 20+ yards (16).
  • The math just adds up here.

2. Adrian Peterson vs. SEA

  • This won't be a fan favorite.
  • But listen, he's still old and he's coming off 39 touches on a really short week, just 4 days rest.
  • SEA hasn't given up more than 55 yards to a RB since Week 3. 6th fewest FPs to RBs on the year overall.
  • I get the hype around AP but I don't think TNF is the spot for him.
  • The game has an over under 41 with SEA as 6 pt FAVs - so the Cards are only projected to score about 17.5 points.
  • He's more of a low-mid RB2 than a RB1 everyone wants to make him out to be imho.

3. Both Miami RBs @CAR

  • They both scored more PPR FPs in this one single game than Ajayi had in any game with MIA this year, that's insane considering the workload he's gotten.
  • CAR hasn't allowed 75 yards to a rusher this season, the 4th fewest FPs to the RB position.
  • I just highly doubt they can repeat this type of production again, both are more desperate.
  • Vegas has the Dolphins, on the road projected for 15.5 points as a team. Don't look for much success on the ground. I can see both of them maybe grabbing 3-4 passes, but I'd be surprised if they scored a TD or surpassed 50-60 total yards.

4. Josh Docston vs. MIN

  • Not that anyone was rushing to get him in their lineup this week, but if you were trying to get cute, don't.
  • I already said I don't like Cousins, so why would I like Docston. With Reed and Crowder questionable, and Pryor taking a back seat, we're talking a stretch bus backseat to Docston over the last few weeks, there's a very good chance JD gets way more Xavier Rhodes than the yung talent can handle.

5. T.Y. Hilton vs. PIT

  • Last week's explosion game for thank you was easy to predict against a soft HOU pass d. This is another easy TY projection, but in the opposite direction.
  • Hilton has either gone under 60 receiving yards (6x) or over 150 receiving yards (3x) in every game this season.
  • The Steelers are legitimately one of the elite pass defenses in the NFL, literally just take a look at these numbers:
    • Allowing 47.4 receiving yards to opponent's WR1 (per FO)
    • 2nd in NFL yards per attempt (6.2)
    • 2nd in passing yards/game (180.0)
    • 2nd fewest passing tuddys allowed (6)
    • 1-of-3 teams in NFL with a negative TD:INT ratio (6:7)
    • 2nd fewest passing 1st downs allowed
    • Top-10 in fewest passing plays of 20+ yards
    • 7th in fewest passing plays of 40+ yards.
    • 4th most sacks in the NFL (26) - while the Colts have allowed the single most sacks (36) - won't have a lot of time to drop back and look for Hilton deep.
    • 3rd lowest opponent QB Rating (74.4)
  • Ironically, they Steelers hadn't let up a 65-yard day to a WR prior to their last game, when 3 different DET wideouts did it (Tate, Marvin and TJ Jones). 
  • Let's try to stay away from this Colts wideout in Week 10.

5. Charles Clay vs. NO

  • Coming back from a long injury layoff, he's been limited at practice this week, it's hard to imagine he plays a full set of snaps.
  • They have another big target joining the team now in Kelvin Benjamin and the Saints have been absolutely shutdown against TEs this year.
  • Apart from Week 2 where Gronk lit them up, no TE has hit 30 receiving yards.
  • Best to stay away from Clay for the time being.

 

Aiight that's all I got foh ya this week

Go follow me on the Tweeter - @Nick_BDGE

and on Instgram - @nickercolano.bdge

Love u and good luck in Week 10



Nick Ercolano
Nick Ercolano

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