Dynasty Sell/Buy Candidates
The top trade candidates for dynasty fantasy football leagues - November 2019.
Derrius Guice - Washington Redskins
The injuries are so far overshadowing just how good of a running back Derrius Guice is. I want to remind folks just want kind of prospect he was.
He checks every box I look for in a running back prospect.
- Size - 5'11-224
- Speed - 4.49 (90th percentile)
- College Production: 1,500 YFS sophomore year. Almost 1,400 YFS Junior year. 29 TDs between the two years. Averaging 6.3 ypc during that span.... and he did it in the SEC. That season he averaged 7.6 yards per carry, he saw a stacked box on 73% of his carries, by far the highest % in this class. The Power 5 conference competition is big for me. You need to first and foremost prove to me that you're good at football.
- Let me remind you, he did that while competing with Leonard Fournette. Make sure you're understanding this. Yes, Fournette was banged up in 2016 but he still touched the ball 144 times, scored 8 timed and had about 1,000 YFS... In that season Guice went for 1500 YFS and 16 TDs.
- He can catch the football. His highest reception total was 18 in a season, which would normally be a red flag even though it's not too low, but it's LSU. All they do is run the ball. In 2016 their starting QB literally threw the ball 269 times and their running backs had 390 carries. In 2017, their starting QB threw the ball 275 times, 416 times. I'm not concerned with the reception totals for Guice at all... plus we just saw him take a screen pass 45 yards to the crib in a real NFL game two weeks ago.
- The injury history is real throughout his NFL career obviously. He tore his ACL coming into his rookie year. But we know, we want players two years off of their ACL. Look at Dalvin Cook. Guice will be full strength for his 3rd year in the league and I love everything about this kid.
- We'll see what they do with AP this offseason, but
- The Skins have talked since drafting Guice about him being a 3-down player. The injuries haven't let us see that come to fruition, but I like the odds of that happening by 2020. Maybe they keep AP as depth, Chris Thompson's an UDFA this offseason, no way they resign him after all the injuries he's had. Bryce Love redshirted his freshman year and might play the Thompson role, which would cap his receiving upside, but I almost see Guice as Nick Chubb where you're not going to have to rely on receiving work for RB1 value.
- I made a trade two weeks ago where I sent my 2020 1st for Guice. It's a 12-team league and I'm 11-1 and locked up a first-round bye, so at very worst I gave away the 1.09, with a good chance of being the 1.11 or 1.12 which I'd give away for Guice 11 out of 7 days a week. I have to do a bit more research on the incoming class, but off the top of my head Guice would currently be a top 6 or 7 pick at worst and one of the first 3-4 RBs off the board, so if you could swap a late 2020 1st for Guice I'm on board.
Kareem Hunt - Cleveland Browns
Justice hill - Baltimore Ravens
JuJu-Smith Schuster - Pittsburgh Steelers
Tyler Lockett - Seattle Seahawks
2nd Year Wrs in General
Terry McLaurin - Washington Redskins
I don't care what you have to pay for this guy. Go get him. He's an alpha in every sense of the word in today's NFL.
McLaurin current ranks among rookie WRs:
- 1st in yards (638)
- t-1st in receptions (40 - deebo)
- t-1st in TDs (5)
- 1st in aDOT (14.9)
- 1st in air yards
- 2nd in targets (67)
- 4th in YPRR
Among the entire NFL group of WRs
- 3rd in entire NFL in contested catch rate.
- 4th in weighted opportunity rating (behind only michael thomas, deandre hopkins and davante adams).
- 3rd in target premium
- 5th in dominator rating (the sign of a true alpha on his respective team)
- 12th in QB rating when targeted
- 10th in FPPTarget
Currently on a 16-game pace for a 64-1021-8 line. for He's doing all of this while getting shadowed by the opposing CB1s and having awful QB play... his target accuracy ranks 77th among NFL WRs per PlayerProfiler right now.
There's also no competition for targets. Like, Paul Richardson? Possibly the worst contract currently sitting on an NFL book right now, 5-year, $40M. Kelvin Harmon could develop into a nice compliment possession receiver, but this is all Terry.
A few guys I would EASILY flip for McLaurin right now: T.Y. Hilton, Lockett, Julio (+), Fuller, Boyd, Thielen, John Brown, etc. etc.
Kerryon Johnson - Detroit Lions
I love Kerryon, we all love Kerryon. We all wanted to see him become the workhorse in Detroit this year. Here's the massive long-term concern I now have for Kerryon... We all hated Matt Patricia for limiting Kerryon. Patricia wants a committee for Kerryon to stay fresh. His rookie season, Kerryon kind of started to take over the backfield, then gets hurt when his workload shoots up.
Patricia comes out this offseason, says
It takes him nearly a year and a half to hand the reigns to Kerryon, and then he gets hurt. So, after being proven right, twice about Kerryon, I see virtually zero chance that Johnson isn't locked into an RBBC for the rest of his time in Detroit. And I don't for a second blame Patricia. He was right, we were wrong. End of story.
Kerryon has NOT been able to prove that he can stay healthy.
"Johnson’s injury history goes all the way back to high school, where he suffered both left and right shoulder injuries, a sprained MCL and a broken thumb. Those ailments kept building at Auburn. While in college, Johnson suffered injuries to his ribs, hamstring, ankle and, yet again, to his shoulder." - Fansided